Britain can end Brexit unilaterally, EU court advisor says

[maingmoom]

2 hours ago, Pedrogaz said:

I believe the UK will be better off out of Europe. More independence if not materially better off. Personally I don't care about a few points shaved off GDP, as the poor and middle classes get none of the profits from increased GDP, as all the profits from GDP growth go into the pockets of the elite 1% which is why inequality of income goes up and up relentlessly.

So taking economics off the table, the reason I wish to leave the EU is that it is run by a bunch of incompetent differs....take the alcoholic EU president, JC Juncker for starters....and none me one competent commissioner with integrity. With such poor leadership and no ability to change or influence their appointment the EU is doomed to gradual decay. It is a sinking ship, the Euro has exacerbated the changes and we have grandiose leaders continually trying to sequester all power in Brussels. It is time for a change. The EU and Britain do so much trade that it will continue because when all the shouting is done, it makes economic sense to do so.

So I would still support a Brexit.....but a hard Brexit if the issue ever comes up for a referendum.

Having said that the position we are now in is as a result of two things.....one was sabotage on behalf of idiot retainers who could not accept the will of the people....and the second was mammoth ineptitude on behalf of May and her band of incompetents.

The negotiation was easy....threaten hard Brexit and no future payments at all as none are legally required....the EU exports much more to the UK than the UK does to Britain and we have a massive balance of payments deficit with them, so the EU, instead of frightening our incompetent negotiators would be fearful themselves. That is the way to negotiate, not revealing your negotiating strategy to the other party and let them walk all over you. 

Any deal we were going to do pre-Brexit would be held to ransom by Spain over Gibraltar and Eire over the border....our people should have seen this coming as both would have a veto. The answer to these would again be to threaten exactly what they don't want....hard Brexit with all territories and hard borders. I conducted negotiations as my job....you set out a hard position early on and then retreat to your real red lines close to the end...that is how it is done....not the stupid way these clowns in the Tory party did it.

The other thing they didn't do was to get Labour on board by forcing them to come off the fence and either support a hard Brexit or admit they didn't care about the result that millions voted for. It would have strengthened May, but she is just too weak to be a PM in a challenging environment.

Absent another referendum, my preferred pathway would be to stay in....write to the EU and say Article 50 is cancelled we are staying in. After begging us to stay the EU would look rather stupid saying no, no, no you cannot come back. Having said that Juncker is that stupid.

Now that's what I call a great post. I agree with everything you say.

[AlexRich]

6 hours ago, Grouse said:

Good morning everyone! What a fabulous day! I feel fully energised and enthusiastic! No idea why; maybe Farage dumping UKIP has put a spring in my step?

 

Coffee anyone?

 

The Dominic Greive amendment effectively killed a "no deal" Brexit, and Farage quit because UKIP have found themselves a new bigot, little Tommy Islam ... and his band of knuckle dragging followers. 

 

So where does that leave us? Strangely it serves May ... ERG/DUP looking at Corbyn in power and the possibility of no Brexit. They are effectively gambling with their own futures.

 

Edited December 5, 2018 by AlexRich

[nauseus]

6 minutes ago, sirineou said:

 As an American looking in from the outside and not only being able to see the trees but also the whole forest, I am a bit ambivalent about Brexit. 

On one hand I hate to see what Brexit will do to the UK and the negative effect  it will have on my british  friends , on the other hand, IMO, I don't think the EU can make the necessary reforms for further integration, necessary for the union to remain viable with the british not all in.. 

IMO you are either all in or all out, half measures only prolongs the pain, and the UK was never all in and if it remains will prolong the "not all in" attitude. 

It is my hope that my british friends will change their minds and remain, while at the same time realise where their future is, stop wishing for a past that no longer exists and make the necessary adjustments to create straight through addition not weakness through division.

Hubris has being the downfall of many great people.

 

From some of your comments, I think you may be looking at the wrong forest.

[sirineou]

1 minute ago, nauseus said:

From some of your comments, I think you may be looking at the wrong forest.

 Perhaps.

Please explain how I am looking at the wrong forest.

[damascase]

20 hours ago, evadgib said:

Uk having this right was never in doubt but actually doing it would be political suicide for the party that tries and for our democracy.

It would be less controversial to steamroller the return of hanging.

It was never in doubt? Why go to Court then?

[AlexRich]

58 minutes ago, dick dasterdly said:

Most people don't care about the uk 'financial hub' losing some money after they led us into a recession in '08.  Perhaps I'm being slightly unfair, as it was US banks that highlighted the problem within many overseas banks.

 

Not to mention some banks used govt. money to continue paying their executives the same (or increased....) salary, and ridiculous bonuses to those that had led us into the disaster - whilst 'blaming' the borrowers and stopping/cutting back all loans etc. unless those seeking a loan were seeking a HUGE sum, and in their minds 'credit worthy'....

 

There is an old saying that goes something along the lines of - borrow a small amount from a bank, and it's your problem, borrow millions - and it's the banks' problem....

 

But to be fair, I'm not an 'expert', so perhaps I'm wrong in this assessment.

 

The City is a huge source of tax revenue, that is spread around the country. Anyone pleased to see it diminished is effectively shooting their own foot off. The crisis was American in origin, many European banks were victims of it.

 

Some people seem to think that damaging business in the UK is a good thing ... the financial sector, the car industry, science and aerospace. They say most businesses don't trade with the EU on account of their size. But many of them are supplying and feeding off the larger industries ... shut down a car plant and watch the impact on local businesses ... butcher, baker, printers, pubs, bookies, etc Wrong headed thinking. We never seem to learn.

 

 

 

[elliss]

19 hours ago, nauseus said:

Obscene!

  Nigel Farage ,  ex UKIP ,   played the flute . and led the masses , to his fantasy world .

[roo860]

I think they thought people would vote to remain.
 

Just by getting off your arse its surprising what you can do, or not do in their case.

Sent from my SM-G920F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[damascase]

4 hours ago, maingmoom said:

Everybody here seems to forget. We voted to leave the EU and by leave we meant lock stock and barrel. We could then freely trade with the rest of the world. F*** the EU all they have done is try to screw us from the very beginning. 

The rest of the world? You mean the few countries that you don’t currently have free trade with through the EU?

Edited December 5, 2018 by damascase
Typo

[nauseus]

1 hour ago, sirineou said:

 Perhaps.

Please explain how I am looking at the wrong forest.

If you explain and justify this comment first: realise where their future is, stop wishing for a past that no longer exists and make the necessary adjustments to create straight through addition not weakness through division.

[nauseus]

1 hour ago, elliss said:

  Nigel Farage ,  ex UKIP ,   played the flute . and led the masses , to his fantasy world .

The topic was Jeremy Corbyn. You are the fantasist. 

[cracker1]

I thought the British people voted (by majority) to exit the EU so why is this discussion making news ?

[samran]

3 hours ago, dick dasterdly said:

"It May very well be the fact that the EU sends more the the UK than vice versa. However this ignores that the UK treasury and most of the civil service are free traders"

 

Please explain.

 

"As a small open economy - you get rid of tariffs anyway even if the other side doesn’t. The EU know this and they’d still be able to easily send stuff to the UK."

 

Really? Why?

Think of it this way. 

 

As a country, you sell stuff to other countries. The money you get from these sales is used to buy stuff that you can’t produce for yourself. No country can produce everything it needs. 

 

Now, pre brexit, you are the UK selling your stuff freely into the EU. No tariffs put on them by the EU. 

 

You then leave the EU. 

 

A no deal brexit means that the EU put a high tariff wall on everything you sell to them.  These become more expensive to an EU consumer, so they buy less. And as result, the UK receives less income from this trade. 

 

Now, you are in the position of earning less money. 

 

You still need to buy stuff from the EU. What are you going to do as a policy maker? 

 

If you as the UK put tariffs up on products from the EU - products you still needed to make your economy tick over, they’ll be more expensive at the point of sale in the UK. 

 

So you putting yourself in a situation where you are 1) earning less, and 2) making products being bought into the more expensive. 

 

Its defies common sense and it economically stupid. 

 

So as the UK, you’d keep your tariffs relatively low so that even though the EU will be making you earn less money, you aren’t shooting yourself in the foot by making the ones you get from them more expensive. 

 

 

Then you’ll just spend the next 10 years (it will take that long based on Canada’s and Australia experience) negotiating an FTA with the EU. And it won’t be particularly free. 

 

As said, you already sell less to the EU than they sell to you. 

 

In other words. They - the EU - need your stuff less than you need theirs.

 

Who do you think is going to be in a better negotiating position given this?

Edited December 5, 2018 by samran

[brewsterbudgen]

I thought the British people voted (by majority) to exit the EU so why is this discussion making news ?

Because the electorate was misinformed about the consequences of Brexit back in 2016 and the referendum was only advisory. Britain has a system of parliamentary democracy.

Sent from my SM-A500F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[AlexRich]

2 hours ago, roo860 said:

 

Just by getting off your arse its surprising what you can do, or not do in their case.

Sent from my SM-G920F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app
 

 

I agree. I think they learned a valuable lesson, your vote counts.

[nauseus]

7 minutes ago, brewsterbudgen said:

Because the electorate was misinformed about the consequences of Brexit back in 2016 and the referendum was only advisory. Britain has a system of parliamentary democracy.

Sent from my SM-A500F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app
 

If anyone is misinformed it is the remainers. 

[AlexRich]

2 hours ago, damascase said:

The rest of the world? You mean the few countries that you don’t currently have free trade with through the EU?

That’s another myth. Do people who voted leave believe that the EU prevents UK companies from selling to other countries? Even a short stroll around the wealthier areas of any country in SE Asia and you’ll see quite a few Range Rovers, even in Cambodia. 

 

Of course you can trade on different terms, but to do so you have to throw away your trade deal with 27 countries and another 60 plus through the EU ... they think Trump is going to give them a gift ... no, he’s not only going to screw you he’s also going to tell the world by tweet that’s what he’s done. 

Edited December 5, 2018 by AlexRich

[AlexRich]

5 hours ago, samran said:

The part of me, which very much enjoys schadenfreude, wants very much for this to happen.

 

I mean, if it takes the painful lesson of actually seeing what 'freely trading with the rest of the world' means.... then so be it.

 

You'll see, than unlike what you have already in the EU, there is no such thing as 'free trade'. Sure, countries sign 'free trade' agreements all the time, but for the most part they are contracts where each side agree to let in as little as humanly possible, trade wise, and then go out via non-tariff barriers to not let these products in anyway.

 

A bit like Thailands 'free' trade agreement with Australia for instance.

 

- tariffs have been slashed on wines by the customs department. So the excise department increases wine excise to compensate.

- Australian avocado's can't be imported into Thailand, given some mythical pest they keep citing.

- Since 2004 Australians were supposed to have access to 3 year work permits. Problem is, Thailand never passed the law to allow this.

- Australia's tariff free beef quota gets filled by about the 5th of January each year.

 

And the list goes on....

 

And the likes of EU, China and the US play this game times 1000.

 

Australia's upcoming negotiated 'free' trade agreement with the EU is being held up by some Sicilian tomato farmers who don't want Australian tomatoes sold into the EU.

 

So good on you brexiteers. This is the future of 'free' trade. Oh, by the way, did I tell you that these 'free' trade agreements take about 5 to 10 years to negotiate?

 

Welcome to the future, or the past....

 

You are about to find out what 'being screwed' really means.

This deserves to be read again and again. This is the reality of free trade, spoken by someone who knows.

[dick dasterdly]

58 minutes ago, cracker1 said:

I thought the British people voted (by majority) to exit the EU so why is this discussion making news ?

Because politicians and a minority of the electorate are determined that the uk should not leave the eu.....

 

Entirely ridiculous as we all accept political parties being elected, even though they only received a minority of the vote.

 

But the wealthy (and immigrants - they may not have a vote but they can protest....) are particularly pissed off at the referendum result ????!

Edited December 5, 2018 by dick dasterdly

[dick dasterdly]

Just now, AlexRich said:

This deserves to be read again and again. This is the reality of free trade, spoken by someone who knows.

Not sure why?

 

The poster is basically saying that trade agreements mean nothing?

[SheungWan]

3 hours ago, dick dasterdly said:

Most people don't care about the uk 'financial hub' losing some money after they led us into a recession in '08.  Perhaps I'm being slightly unfair, as it was US banks that highlighted the problem within many overseas banks.

Not to mention some banks used govt. money to continue paying their executives the same (or increased....) salary, and ridiculous bonuses to those that had led us into the disaster - whilst 'blaming' the borrowers and stopping/cutting back all loans etc. unless those seeking a loan were seeking a HUGE sum, and in their minds 'credit worthy'....

There is an old saying that goes something along the lines of - borrow a small amount from a bank, and it's your problem, borrow millions - and it's the banks' problem....

But to be fair, I'm not an 'expert', so perhaps I'm wrong in this assessment.

You are gilding the lilly as one would say. This is not about the financial hub losing some money but rather losing turnover, jobs and significance leading to reduced taxation receipts which support the rest of the country. Personally I am inclined to go for London breaking away from the rest of the UK in the face of ungrateful provincials.

[SheungWan]

32 minutes ago, nauseus said:

If anyone is misinformed it is the remainers. 

Yes. they make the big, big mistake of not getting their info from the slew of nutty Conspiracy Theory websites littering the internet.

[nauseus]

2 minutes ago, SheungWan said:

You are gilding the lilly as one would say. This is not about the financial hub losing some money but rather losing turnover, jobs and significance leading to reduced taxation receipts which support the rest of the country. Personally I am inclined to go for London breaking away from the rest of the UK in the face of ungrateful provincials.

I'd never have guessed that. 

[nauseus]

1 minute ago, SheungWan said:

Yes. they make the big, big mistake of not getting their info from the slew of nutty Conspiracy Theory websites littering the internet.

Right, they just put their trust in proper propaganda.

[vogie]

1 minute ago, SheungWan said:

Yes. they make the big, big mistake of not getting their info from the slew of nutty Conspiracy Theory websites littering the internet.

Some of us don't have the time or even the inclination to watch Piers Morgan on Good Morning Britain, or whatever show he presents.

[dick dasterdly]

Just now, nauseus said:

The lowest ever. Hope this post is binned.   

It won't be - as he is a remainer....

[SheungWan]

3 hours ago, maingmoom said:

Now that's what I call a great post. I agree with everything you say.

The Daily Express theory of Brexit.

[AlexRich]

4 minutes ago, dick dasterdly said:

Not sure why?

 

The poster is basically saying that trade agreements mean nothing?

What he has done is explained the reality of trade agreements. You have to give up a lot and you may not get much in return, especially if you are the smaller country in the negotiation. It also takes a very long time to secure them. Not to mention that in the meantime you throw every trade deal and arrangement that you currently have in the bin. 

 

The agreement with with the EU was supposed to be the easiest in the world ... we can all now see that claim to be false. The next claim is that trade deals are a cure all for what we are giving up as part of the EU. That will also, in time, be shown to be a false claim.

[SheungWan]

3 minutes ago, vogie said:

Some of us don't have the time or even the inclination to watch Piers Morgan on Good Morning Britain, or whatever show he presents.

Yes. I'm too busy ironing my shirts in Pattaya for example.

[dunroaming]

It will be interesting to see what the Brexiteers have to say next week when May's deal is rejected and the only options are Norway style deal (with it's customs union, single market and not being allowed to trade independently.  Let alone restricted control of borders and EU rules) or no-Brexit or back to the people.  Parliament will not contemplate a no deal scenario so I wonder which option the leavers will want then?