Will the Thai baht hit 20 Aud ?

[georgegeorgia]

Had a debate last night with another farang from Australia and I apologise the question is mostly related to Aussieexchange 

 

is the thai baht going to go down or up ??

 

Its currently 22.38 per Aussie dollar, but last week went down to its lowest at 22.20

 

so $100 Aud is now approx 2,230 baht give or take.

 

A beer at 90 baht would be nearly $5 Australian !

 

I know now why many Aussies are going to Bali or Phillipines 

 

that means things are far more expensive in Thailand than many Western Countries .

 

So its now going to be a struggle if it keeps going dowm.

 

is there any Economists here, surely there is, that can advise on a 12 month outlook please !

 

I know there is a lot of “smart educated “ that do read these topics sometimes so are you able to give a opinion or you cant at this stage ?

Edited March 14, 2019 by georgegeorgia

[whiteman]

drink less

[madmen]

since its in a downward trend I would expect it test previous lows. If it bounces all good if keeps going down then time to sell my condo for a killing on exchange rates..more than one way to profit from RE in LOS and head back to oz for a few years

[georgegeorgia]

5 minutes ago, whiteman said:

drink less

You may not be n the bracket of “ smart educated” i was seeking.

[ezzra]

If economist would know where the economy is heading including currencies, they will all be multi millionaires by now, the best you can get is an educated guess based on past, current and future events, and many of those so called predictions have turned out to be inaccurate, but judging on current sentiments in Oz, don't hold your breath for a better exchange that what is now...

[Berkshire]

2 hours ago, ezzra said:

If economist would know where the economy is heading including currencies, they will all be multi millionaires by now, the best you can get is an educated guess based on past, current and future events, and many of those so called predictions have turned out to be inaccurate, but judging on current sentiments in Oz, don't hold your breath for a better exchange that what is now...

Agree.  Free financial advice is worth exactly what you paid for it.

[Puchaiyank]

Relative strength of the baht to foreign currencies will always be a concern to expats in Thailand...

 

I use the 30 day currency predictor program to try and get the best month to month rates...

 

http://30rates.com/

 

[tlandtday]

2 hours ago, ezzra said:

If economist would know where the economy is heading including currencies, they will all be multi millionaires by now, the best you can get is an educated guess based on past, current and future events, and many of those so called predictions have turned out to be inaccurate, but judging on current sentiments in Oz, don't hold your breath for a better exchange that what is now...

the economists don't have a clue but you can bet the wall streeters have the inside track...

Edited March 14, 2019 by tlandtday

[ghworker2010]

The opinion on the AuD reported in the mainstream press differs every 3 to 6 months. This time last year I read an article stating that they thought the $ would rise. Then later on another predicted it would drop. 

 

Oz is perceived to be in mild economic downturn. I believe the rate will be shit for another year or so. Move to the philippines. The dead farang channel on youtube just said today that the oz rate is 36 to the peso. Move to the philippines?

[giddyup]

Glad I bought a house when I did at 27 baht to the A$, but if I'd done it a couple of weeks earlier I would have got over 30 baht. That loss cost me nearly ten grand Australian. This was 8 years ago.

[wombat]

2 hours ago, Puchaiyank said:

Relative strength of the baht to foreign currencies will always be a concern to expats in Thailand...

 

I use the 30 day currency predictor program to try and get the best month to month rates...

 

http://30rates.com/

 

how has that worked out for you?....

[Deerculler]

The biggest problem for New Zealand and Australia is because they are tied to whatever happens with China.

China is NZ and Aust. biggest trading partner.

If China goes down so do we.

 

[MarleyMarl]

17 minutes ago, Deerculler said:

The biggest problem for New Zealand and Australia is because they are tied to whatever happens with China.

China is NZ and Aust. biggest trading partner.

If China goes down so do we.

 

Yes this is what i've been reading, since China's economy is slowing down, if they have more issues then don't expect AUD to rise.

[Pungdo]

According to the forecasts on this website it is heading down to below 20 in 2020 ????

https://audtoday.com/aud-to-thb-forecast

[Aussieroaming]

Aussie dollar down, property prices spiralling downward, seems like a good time for overseas investors to look at Australia.

[Ulic]

The minimum wage in Australia is $18.93 With that you are at the poverty line. Manufacturing has left the country. (for the most part) The Australian economy is resource-based and exports most of those resources to China. China is slowing down significantly. When I do the math it does not look good for the Australian dollar. My guess is the Australian government will be working hard to devalue the currency to help exports and help tourism. A slow decline is probable versus the baht. For now, Thailands foreign currency account surplus is very high so I don't see the value of the baht going down. 

[Puchaiyank]

1 hour ago, wombat said:

how has that worked out for you?....

Their predictions...like most...can be skewed by unexpected current events...but it is better than asking a monk to pray for your success...????

[JimHuaHin]

Who knows?

 

The financial analysts and economists make their predictions, which are more than often wrong.

 

Before moving to Thailand about 6 years ago, I looked at the historical A$-Thai Baht exchage rate and Australian interest rate data - the data suggested interest rates should average around 5% (thus reasonable to keep money in an Australian bank investment account) and the exchage rate around 30 Baht to the A$ (giving me enough to have a comfortable life in Thailand).  Both guesses were wrong.

 

Over the short term, say until the end of this year - Australian political situation is not good and the Australian economy is so-so (tied very much to China, and China is slowing down).  For what it is worth, my guess is that the exchange rate will basially stay where it is, and interest rates will not go up until 2020.

 

Beyond 2020, your guess is as good as mine.

 

Thailand is becoming too expensive.

 

 

[dreaming]

1 hour ago, giddyup said:

Glad I bought a house when I did at 27 baht to the A$, but if I'd done it a couple of weeks earlier I would have got over 30 baht. That loss cost me nearly ten grand Australian. This was 8 years ago.

Must be a cheap house - $100K

[dreaming]

They are talking about possible interest rate cuts now. That is a sure fire way for the aussie dollar to devalue further

[timendres]

46 minutes ago, Pungdo said:

According to the forecasts on this website it is heading down to below 20 in 2020 ????

https://audtoday.com/aud-to-thb-forecast

Complete nonsense.

[MikeN]

Well, about 9 months ago some of the “experts” here on TV were adamant the $AU was about to go below 19 baht. They were wrong then, and those same “experts” will probably be wrong again.

 There are too many variables to accurately predict currency fluctuations in anything more than the immediate short term future.

[mfd101]

Today's 'Australian' says the $A is heading down to US0.68 but likely to recover to its current 0.7 by the end of the year. Depending how the baht goes against the US$, you can do the maths.

 

In sum, the news is more likely bad than good. However, the 'Oz' also says that, when the Chinese economy heads down, the Chinese government pulls out all stops to build it back up - which means big infrastructure spends, which is good for Oz resource exports to China ...

[johnarth]

49 minutes ago, Aussieroaming said:

Aussie dollar down, property prices spiralling downward, seems like a good time for overseas investors to look at Australia.

joke? there is nothing left

[Seeall]

5 hours ago, Berkshire said:

Agree.  Free financial advice is worth exactly what you paid for it.

The old "you get what you pay for" mainly from aussies.. lol..

But in this case, I agree, if they were even more

than half sure they knew where anything was headed more than 50% then they would just do it and be very well off....

[puipuitom]

In th4 Mid 80's I followed an evening program at the University of Amsterdam, Fac. Economy about international affairs , and influence on currencies / exchange rates. At the end of the 14 evenings, one of the students thanked the professor, but asked: " Now we know why.. then.. etc etc, but.. can you also tell what the exchange rate of the US$ will be next week towards the European currencies ? "

( Just in that time, the US$ got stronger and stronger, the Bundesbank of Germany tried with a DM 3 BILLION to stop the US$ at 3 MDM. result… sfruppp.. and gone were these DM 3 Billion)

Answer of the prof: "for currency exchanges ( of the US$ towards the EU currencies) you should not ask the Faculty of Economics, but of Psychology"

[Brunolem]

Australia's economy is currently caught in a slowly deflating bubble, that was inflated by China, the latter's bubble also currently deflating. 

 

Yet, thanks to wise policies such as betting the farm on China and Chinese tourists, Thailand has made itself very vulnerable to economic weakness in China. 

 

Thus, it is not because the Thai baht has been on a roll for a few years, that it is going to be that way forever...

 

There is nothing tangible to support the surprising strength of the baht. 

 

If Thailand was one of the strongest economies in the world, that would make the headlines... most probably the baht has reached such high levels because very few players on the markets have paid any attention to it, and started shorting it, in the way many players are shorting the yuan for example. .. but that could change anytime... 

 

[MalandLee]

In 1993 it hit 30 - (Sep 1993) 16.419122 Baht - that was my lowest since coming here.

 

31 Jan 1998 it hit 34.790813 Baht - the highest since me coming here

 

In the years 2011 to 2014 it was consistently OVER 30 Baht to the dollar.

 

IMO there are no crystal balls - if there is a global shortage of raw materials - the Aussie will soar.

 

There are lot's of "buts" - but, if there is a (set of) trade deals, China & India may fire up their factories again - "Historically" OZ does well when this happens.

 

BTW the AUD has "averaged" 25.001601 Baht to $AUD1.00 over the last 20 years - right now we are 10% or so BELLOW average.

SOURCES: https://www.ofx.com/en-au/forex-news/historical-exchange-rates/yearly-average-rates/

https://www.ofx.com/en-au/forex-news/historical-exchange-rates/

Edited March 14, 2019 by MalandLee

[Tropposurfer]

Will Jesus come back tonight while I'm asleep.

[Brunolem]

4 minutes ago, Tropposurfer said:

Will Jesus come back tonight while I'm asleep.

Well, if you keep your TV turned on the broadcasting of Manchester City's game, you could indeed see him... yet I am not sure whether Man C is playing tonight...