In Thailand's 'red shirt' north, Thaksin's grip slowly loosens

[webfact]

In Thailand's 'red shirt' north, Thaksin's grip slowly loosens

By Panu Wongcha-um

 

FILE PHOTO: Supporters of Pheu Thai Party attend the election campaign in Ubon Ratchathani Province, Thailand, February 18, 2019. REUTERS/Athit Perawongmetha/File photo

 

PHAYAO, Thailand (Reuters) - Like most in the sleepy town of Phayao in Thailand's northern mountains, schoolteacher Mu Suthibutr voted for parties loyal to Thaksin Shinawatra in election after election, even after the populist leader was ousted in an army coup and fled into exile.

 

But last Sunday, Mu cast his ballot instead for the candidate of a party backing the ruling junta because he knows the candidate, a former Thaksin ally who switched sides, and thinks he "will be the most useful" for the town.

 

"Many feel that Thaksin will not be able to come back, so they have to vote for someone that they can depend on rather than what is in their heart," Mu said.

 

The pro-junta party won in Phayao, the first time since 2001 that a Thaksin-loyal party has lost in a town that - like much of the north and northeast of Thailand - has long been a bastion of "red shirt" support for the former telecoms tycoon.

 

Phayao is part of a broader shift in Thailand politics as it returns to an electoral process after nearly five years of military rule, one that may make the country even more difficult to govern.

 

For years, the Southeast Asian nation has been divided between mostly rural and northern supporters of Thaksin and his fierce opponents - mostly urban and middle class - who revile him as a corrupt demagogue. Amid spasms of street protests, the rival camps became known as "red shirts" and "yellow shirts".

 

Now, with the military entrenched in politics and the emergence of a charismatic figurehead of democracy who reminds voters of a younger Thaksin, the country's political landscape is fragmenting.

 

Indeed, last week's election - the first since the 2014 military coup - has set the scene for protracted political deadlock because no one party won the majority of parliamentary seats required to rule.

 

In Phayao town, though, most people accept the result that gave its House of Representative seat to the pro-army Palang Pracharat party, which is seeking to keep coup leader Prayuth Chan-ocha on as an elected prime minister.

 

Voter accounts there of the pro-Thaksin Pheu Thai party's loss provide a snapshot of how Thaksin's seemingly unshakeable grip is loosening even in his political heartland after more than a decade in self-imposed exile following an earlier coup.

 

Thaksin did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.

 

LOSING TOUCH?

Despite the opposition of the Bangkok-based "yellow-short" elite, parties loyal to Thaksin have won each election since 2001 thanks to his hold on the north and northeast. Thaksin still has legions of loyal supporters in these regions, but Pheu Thai's share of their seats shrank in the latest election to 63.5 percent from 80.2 percent in 2011.

 

The loss of constituencies like Phayao town illustrates that Thaksin's absence, as well as recent missteps - have cost him votes, one analyst said.

 

"Pheu Thai cannot take the north and northeast for granted," said Titipol Phakdeewanich, dean of the faculty of political science at Ubon Ratchathani University.

 

Phayao, surrounded by farms about an hour's drive north of Thaksin's home city of Chiang Mai, is the main town in the province of the same name.

 

Townspeople often gather near a large lake in the city centre to feed fish that swim up to the banks or sit in cafes - and, after the election, they're happy to talk about politics.

 

One explanation several gave for the pro-junta Palang Pracharat's win here is that its candidate, wealthy local businessman Thammanat Prompao, is well known in the community and also chairman of a local football team.

 

Thammanat, for years a prominent Pheu Thai leader, told Reuters he switched allegiance because he came to believe that if his former party won power it would only bring more conflict.

 

He secured the constituency with 52,417 votes, compared to Pheu Thai's candidate's tally of around 21,971, according to results released on Thursday.

Phayao is not the only constituency where the junta's proxy party fielded a former Thaksin loyalist - about 30 of its candidates in 350 constituencies nationwide were ex-Pheu Thai parliamentarians or prominent supporters.

 

Pheu Thai's four-time parliamentarian from Phayao, Arunee Chamnanya, says she lost her seat "because the electoral process was not a fair fight".

For example, Pheu Thai complained that it booked a local sports arena for a rally on Jan. 10 but provincial officials revoked the permission a day before it was to be held.

 

"There has been an abuse of state power and usage of officials in the area," Arunee said.

 

NEW VOICES

It is unclear how much of a discouraging effect such incidents had, but several former Thaksin voters said they had their own reasons for changing their minds.

 

The emergence of populist, youthful billionaire Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, who promises an end to military "dictatorship", appears to have drawn votes away from Thaksin. His Future Forward Party came third in Phayao town's constituency with 16,326 votes.

 

Tai Puttasarn, 45, said she had always voted for Pheu Thai but this time she voted for Thanathorn's Future Forward Party because he is a fresh voice offering a way out of the ruinous cycle of pro- and anti-Thaksin protests.

 

"Choosing Thanathorn felt like when I chose Thaksin in the past. They are both exciting politicians," she said.

 

Suteep Thepawong, who sells food for passers-by to feed the fish in the lake, fondly remembers when then-prime minister Thaksin introduced cheap healthcare that improved life in the north.

 

But it has been more than 11 years since Thaksin left Thailand to escape a corruption sentence he said was politically motivated, and Suteep felt it was time to move on.

 

"I didn't vote for Thaksin this time because he is no longer around," Suteep said. "Thanathorn is here right now."

 

There are other explanations for the pro-army Palang Pracharat's stronger-than-expected showing. Few voters Reuters interviewed confirmed reports from elsewhere in the north of voter intimidation, but some acknowledged taking money.

 

One local fisherman said he was paid 500 baht ($15) to vote for Palang Pracharat's Thammanat.

 

"I need to vote for him otherwise it would be dishonest," the fisherman said. "It would be a sin if I don't do what I promise. If I accept money, I have to follow through."

 

Thammanat denied any vote-buying in his campaign.

 

Suteep, the fish food seller who switched from Thaksin to Thanathorn, shrugged off the idea that vote-buying affected the results, saying most people just take the money and vote how they like.

 

But he said he was impressed by how many people voted for Thanathorn's Future Forward even though it did not offer money.

 

"Palang Pracharat will not get the seat next time," he added. "I think Future Forward will topple them in the next election."

 

($1 = 31.8700 baht)

 

(Additional reporting by Panarat Thepgumpanat; Writing by Kay Johnson; Editing by John Chalmers and Raju Gopalakrishnan)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2019-03-29

[Khaeng Mak]

Yeah. My my GFs mother and father in Isaan voted for Prayuth because they were each paid 500 baht.

 

They would of preferred to vote for Pheu Thai but they were not offering payments this time around.

 

 

Edited March 29, 2019 by Khaeng Mak

[BritManToo]

Hard to say loss, when there were more votes than voters.

 

Let me see,

He appointed 250 generals

Disbanded one of the opposition parties just before the election

Paid for votes

Added votes for people that didn't exist (some ballot boxes had twice as many votes as voters)

Added another 5 million votes after the voting finished

Disallowed 40 of the opposition winners

 

And he still isn't satisfied with his results.

Edited March 29, 2019 by BritManToo

[steven100]

3 minutes ago, webfact said:

But last Sunday, Mu cast his ballot instead for the candidate of a party backing the ruling junta because he knows the candidate, a former Thaksin ally who switched sides, and thinks he "will be the most useful" for the town.

 

"Many feel that Thaksin will not be able to come back, so they have to vote for someone that they can depend on rather than what is in their heart," Mu said.

It seems in some area's and farming regions Thailand is finally waking up....

[moe666]

The one guy in the story from Payao still voted for someone he knew who changed parties, if the guy had not changed one more vote for Taksin

[GarryP]

3 minutes ago, moe666 said:

The one guy in the story from Payao still voted for someone he knew who changed parties, if the guy had not changed one more vote for Taksin

That is why I think it is a poor argument to say the vote shifted away from PTP. It was probably never with PTP but rather with the actual candidate who would have won regardless which party he ran for. 

[Thaiwrath]

16 minutes ago, webfact said:

One local fisherman said he was paid 500 baht ($15) to vote for Palang Pracharat's Thammanat.

 

16 minutes ago, webfact said:

Thammanat denied any vote-buying in his campaign.

So you are calling someone who voted for you a liar ?

You'll make a brilliant politician ! ???? ???? ???? ????

[pornprong]

LOL

 

15 years of propaganda

4 Prime Ministers removed by non-democratic means

2 military coups

1 judicial coup

2 interim constitutions

2 new constitutions 

1 amended constitution

3 politcal parties disbanded

100's of MP's and executives banned

Passport confiscations

$1.4 billion in personal assets seized

1 trumped up conviction (https://www.newmandala.org/a-response-to-vanina-sucharitkul/)

Several pending trumped up charges

Rigged system that bans any mention of Thaksin and severely restricts campaigning to all but the junta

Voting results rigged by junta appointed election commission

Pheu Thai contests only 2/3s of constituency seats

Pheu Thai awarded 0 party list seats

 

                                                      

                              Soldiers and police seize calendars bearing pictures of former leaders

                                         Thaksin and Yingluck Shinawatras in Ubon Ratchathani.

 

And yet Thaksin still wins the most seats

 

LOL!

[geoffbezoz]

14 minutes ago, pornprong said:

LOL

 

15 years of propaganda

4 Prime Ministers removed by non-democratic means

2 military coups

1 judicial coup

2 interim constitutions

2 new constitutions 

1 amended constitution

3 politcal parties disbanded

100's of MP's and executives banned

Passport confiscations

$1.4 billion in personal assets seized

1 trumped up conviction (https://www.newmandala.org/a-response-to-vanina-sucharitkul/)

Several pending trumped up charges

Rigged system that bans any mention of Thaksin and severely restricts campaigning to all but the junta

Voting results rigged by junta appointed election commission

Pheu Thai contests only 2/3s of constituency seats

Pheu Thai awarded 0 party list seats

 

                                                      

                              Soldiers and police seize calendars bearing pictures of former leaders

                                         Thaksin and Yingluck Shinawatras in Ubon Ratchathani.

 

And yet Thaksin still wins the most seats

 

LOL!

And don't forget those gunned down in 2010 in an attempt to frighten the population into submission, and still PT, as you rightly state, get most seats.

[humbug]

here we go 1000's of naff propaganda articles on the economy doing well, red shirts are finished lol, lets see the chuckle p gang showing in a free and fair election and see what happens, not the disaster of this election when they couldnt even rig their own rigged election,laughable, i give them 1-2 year tops, before the end of these illegal goons wearing uniforms

[cmsally]

Thammanat Prompao

 

This guy makes for some interesting reading. "Wealthy local businessman", seems to leave out quite a few details!! Unless he has a namesake , he is ex army , implicated in bit coin scandal and his name pops up quite a bit.

[geoffbezoz]

3 minutes ago, humbug said:

here we go 1000's of naff propaganda articles on the economy doing well, red shirts are finished lol, lets see the chuckle p gang showing in a free and fair election and see what happens, not the disaster of this election when they couldnt even rig their own rigged election,laughable, i give them 1-2 year tops, before the end of these illegal goons wearing uniforms

And their backers to ensure all of the dross gets swept away rather than just some of them.

[JAG]

1 hour ago, webfact said:

Townspeople often gather near a large lake in the city centre to feed fish that swim up to the banks or sit in cafes - and, after the election...

Extraordinary! I've been there several times - it's a nice day out from where I live, but I've never noticed any fish sitting in cafes!

Edited March 29, 2019 by JAG

[Eric Loh]

1 hour ago, webfact said:

"Palang Pracharat will not get the seat next time," he added.

Give them rope to hang themselves. Their populist policies will create economic disaster. Raising minimum wage to 400-450B, starting salary of 20,000B for BA graduates, 12,000B for tonne of paddy, 65B per kilogram for rubber and a minimum of 5 B for a kg of oil palm seeds. Let's watch the fun when they realize that these policies are just not sustainable in the current global economic uncertainty and they can't fulfill their campaign pledges. The party will not survive even one term with the no confidence possibility hanging over their heads in Parliament.   

[isaanjohnno]

As a long time NE resident I can attest that that is false news-perhaps this is a hopeful news release from the junta but is not based on reality

[isaanjohnno]

4 hours ago, Eric Loh said:

Give them rope to hang themselves. Their populist policies will create economic disaster. Raising minimum wage to 400-450B, starting salary of 20,000B for BA graduates, 12,000B for tonne of paddy, 65B per kilogram for rubber and a minimum of 5 B for a kg of oil palm seeds. Let's watch the fun when they realize that these policies are just not sustainable in the current global economic uncertainty and they can't fulfill their campaign pledges. The party will not survive even one term with the no confidence possibility hanging over their heads in Parliament.   

It is after all the "People's State Power Party" and with the rise of socialism across the world don't be surprised you may have to eat your hat. on your statement. Freebies and hollow promises are straight out of the handbook- look no further than Laos. The IMF will support them as it does other socialist regimes

Edited March 29, 2019 by isaanjohnno

[hotchilli]

21 hours ago, webfact said:

"I need to vote for him otherwise it would be dishonest," the fisherman said. "It would be a sin if I don't do what I promise. If I accept money, I have to follow through."

But it's ok to sell your soul for 500 baht ?

[fullcave]

22 hours ago, webfact said:

no one party won the majority of parliamentary seats required to rule.

By design. 

[Denim]

22 hours ago, webfact said:

One local fisherman said he was paid 500 baht ($15) to vote for Palang Pracharat's Thammanat.

 

"I need to vote for him otherwise it would be dishonest," the fisherman said. "It would be a sin if I don't do what I promise. If I accept money, I have to follow through."

 

Oh the irony. What a complete <deleted>.

 

My sister in law also pocketed 500 baht ( Petchabun ) from Palang Pracharat then voted Future Forward because she hates the junta. She feels no shame for taking the money since she feels it was the only way she could hurt them but do herself some good.

 

No other parties dared try to buy votes.

[ratcatcher]

20 hours ago, JAG said:

Extraordinary! I've been there several times - it's a nice day out from where I live, but I've never noticed any fish sitting in cafes!

"...fish that swim up to the banks".......... 

Bet you didn't see them making withdrawals at the ATMs either?.

[candide]

1 minute ago, Denim said:

 

Oh the irony. What a complete <deleted>.

 

My sister in law also pocketed 500 baht ( Petchabun ) from Palang Pracharat then voted Future Forward because she hates the junta. She feels no shame for taking the money since she feels it was the only way she could hurt them but do herself some good.

 

No other parties dared try to buy votes.

Still we can be sure that it will be the other parties which will be investigated and disqualified.

[toenail]

I visit friends a lot in Isaanarea and my “farang observation” is that the junta government has put a lot of money into updating the infrastructure in the towns and cities (improving highways, hospitals, and schools. Also the province leaders in power  are no longer sucking money into their own bank accounts so more budgeted money in cities are being spent on improving the cities. Under Thaksin’s power it was only talk. My Isaan friends notice the positive change also. 

[geoffbezoz]

6 minutes ago, toenail said:

I visit friends a lot in Isaanarea and my “farang observation” is that the junta government has put a lot of money into updating the infrastructure in the towns and cities (improving highways, hospitals, and schools. Also the province leaders in power  are no longer sucking money into their own bank accounts so more budgeted money in cities are being spent on improving the cities. Under Thaksin’s power it was only talk. My Isaan friends notice the positive change also. 

Don't you believe it . A good friend of the FIL had, according to the FIL, been provided with 6 million baht to influence the voters in his Amphur. Strangely even my FIL expressed concern that last week he took delivery of his MB C class, which looked wrong.  Quite an upgrade from his 2004 Toyota pick-up. Mind you can't knock it too much as my FIL benefited to a much much smaller extent. His comments were only that everybody does it so he was lucky that this time he had friends in the right places. That essentially typifies the Thai culture. Is it right or wrong ? depends what side of the fence you are on at the time I guess.

Edited March 30, 2019 by geoffbezoz

[roquefort]

18 hours ago, isaanjohnno said:

As a long time NE resident I can attest that that is false news-perhaps this is a hopeful news release from the junta but is not based on reality

What part of this statement do you not understand: "Pheu Thai's share of their seats shrank in the latest election to 63.5 percent from 80.2 percent in 2011"?

[ramrod711]

On ‎3‎/‎29‎/‎2019 at 3:55 PM, webfact said:

For example, Pheu Thai complained that it booked a local sports arena for a rally on Jan. 10 but provincial officials revoked the permission a day before it was to be held.

 

"There has been an abuse of state power and usage of officials in the area," Arunee said.

I'm desperate to express sympathy for her and PTP but I recall them bringing a truck with large speakers and drowning out a speech from Abhisit at a Democrat rally. Nuts, bolts, rocks and other objects were also thrown. I don't condone "dirty tricks" from any party, but if you use them yourselves don't be surprised if the favor is returned.

[geoffbezoz]

48 minutes ago, roquefort said:

What part of this statement do you not understand: "Pheu Thai's share of their seats shrank in the latest election to 63.5 percent from 80.2 percent in 2011"?

And what do you not understand that PT were restricted by Junta rules to fighting 250 seats in 2019 as opposed to 350 in 2011 ?

[ramrod711]

2 hours ago, toenail said:

I visit friends a lot in Isaanarea and my “farang observation” is that the junta government has put a lot of money into updating the infrastructure in the towns and cities (improving highways, hospitals, and schools. Also the province leaders in power  are no longer sucking money into their own bank accounts so more budgeted money in cities are being spent on improving the cities. Under Thaksin’s power it was only talk. My Isaan friends notice the positive change also. 

I agree with your observation regarding infrastructure improvements. I don't disagree regarding local officials stealing less, I just don't have personal knowledge of it.

[pornprong]

5 hours ago, toenail said:

I visit friends a lot in Isaanarea and my “farang observation” is that the junta government has put a lot of money into updating the infrastructure in the towns and cities (improving highways, hospitals, and schools. Also the province leaders in power  are no longer sucking money into their own bank accounts so more budgeted money in cities are being spent on improving the cities. Under Thaksin’s power it was only talk. My Isaan friends notice the positive change also. 

Wonderful observation, no doubt absolutely accurate and true.

Just one question though, why did Issan vote exclusively for Pheu Thai?

 

 

Could be you're wrong.

Could be that you're just making up crap to support your personal views.

 

Edited March 30, 2019 by pornprong

[Baerboxer]

On 3/29/2019 at 4:17 PM, pornprong said:

LOL

 

15 years of propaganda

4 Prime Ministers removed by non-democratic means

2 military coups

1 judicial coup

2 interim constitutions

2 new constitutions 

1 amended constitution

3 politcal parties disbanded

100's of MP's and executives banned

Passport confiscations

$1.4 billion in personal assets seized

1 trumped up conviction (https://www.newmandala.org/a-response-to-vanina-sucharitkul/)

Several pending trumped up charges

Rigged system that bans any mention of Thaksin and severely restricts campaigning to all but the junta

Voting results rigged by junta appointed election commission

Pheu Thai contests only 2/3s of constituency seats

Pheu Thai awarded 0 party list seats

 

                                                      

                              Soldiers and police seize calendars bearing pictures of former leaders

                                         Thaksin and Yingluck Shinawatras in Ubon Ratchathani.

 

And yet Thaksin still wins the most seats

 

LOL!

 

Yeah, and his goons never even paid anyone to vote, intimidate or coerced them. ????

[pornprong]

5 minutes ago, Baerboxer said:

Yeah, and his goons never even paid anyone to vote, intimidate or coerced them. ????

In light of the ongoing fallout from the just completed election, this is hilarious.

 

Q1. Which of the Thai elections had the outcome most affected by cheating

 

a. 2001

b. 2005

c. 2007

d. 2011

e. 2019

 

Q2. Which of the following elections had the most restrictive measure on independent outside observers?

 

a. 2001

b. 2005

c. 2007

d. 2011

e. 2019

 

Q3. Which of the following elections was not overseen by an independent Election Commission?

 

a. 2001

b. 2005

c. 2007

d. 2011

e. 2019