Myth: Strong baht deterring western tourists to Thailand

[rooster59]

Myth: Strong baht deterring western tourists to Thailand

By The Thaiger

 

 

The rise and rise of the Thai Baht, and it’s pushing through the 31.05 to the US Dollar barrier on Wednesday, tops off a turbulent decade of current movement against some of the western currencies. The decade’s currency rise has also been matched by a meteoric explosion in tourism pushing Thailand into the top ten list of popular tourist locations in the world.

 

In 2009 Thailand attracted 14,149,841 tourists. In 2018 it pushed through 38 million and the projection is that it will surpass 40 million by the end of 2019.

 

The common narrative in social media (including comments on The Thaiger’s Facebook page) has been that the rise of the Thai Baht against western currencies is ‘killing off’ tourism from traditional western markets.

 

The statistics don’t tend to bear out this sentiment.

 

There’s no doubt the ‘big mover’ in tourist arrivals in the past decade has been the Chinese, rising from 778,000 in 2009 to 10,536,000 last year – a staggering surge and a profound change to the tourist mix in the Land of Smiles. At the same time the largest demographic of tourists into Thailand, the ASEAN countries, has risen from 3,969,000 to 10,284,000 last year, a large rise in regional tourism which has also had a big impact on Thailand’s tourist numbers.

 

But the rises have also come from most of the western countries during the same decade, whilst their currencies have preformed poorly against the Thai baht. Generally, as the Baht has risen against their currencies, more of their tourists have been visiting Thailand, albeit not with the same vigour of the Chinese tourist numbers.

 

So the western tourists are not ‘fleeing in droves’ but continue to be important sectors of the Thai tourist mix.

 

Another notable rise and fall in the past decade has come from the Russian market. In 2009 there were 337,000 Russians arriving in Thailand. In 2018 there was 1,473,000, but the peak was in 2013 when the figure reached 1,747,000 arrivals.

 

United Kingdom and the Pound

 

In the ten years since 2009 the annual arrivals in Thailand has risen from 841,000 to 987,000 (figure rounded to the nearest 1000) tourists in the Land of Smiles last year. The peak year for UK travellers was 2016 when the numbers topped the 1 million mark (1,003,000). The British have been consistent travellers to Thailand, even if the figure isn’t rising much compared to some of the other nationalities. During the same period the Pound’s drop has been noticeable and still going through a few Brexit bumps.

 

 

United States and US$

 

In the past decade Thailand has become a firm favourite for the travel plans of US citizens, from 627,000 in 2009 to 1,123,248 visitors last year. Their currency has had much more of a roller coaster ride during the decade but the band of change more narrow than some of the other world currencies, between 31-36.5 Baht to the US Dollar. Back in 2013 the US Dollar was even lower against the Thai Baht than it is now.

 

 

Australians and the Oz Dollar

 

Australians coming to Thailand have definitely felt the pinch with a gradual plunge of their spending power dropping from 33 baht to the AUD in 2012 to be around 21 baht to the AUD now. But tourism by Aussies has been quite consistent, from 647,000 in 2009 to 802,000,000 in 2018. Arrival numbers peaked in 2012 when it reached 930,000 visitors to Thailand.

 

 

Europeans and the Euro

 

The Euro has also seen a steady decade-long slide from a peak around 50 Euro to the Thai Baht down to around 35 Euro to the local currency now. The two largest European feeder markets have been French and German tourists.

 

• French tourists have been steady arrivals in Thailand. In 2009 there were 427,000 and has risen to 750,000 in 2018.

 

• German arrivals have steadily grown from 573,000 a decade ago to 890,000 German tourists visiting Thailand in 2018.

 

• Swedish tourists have been steady throughout the decade banding between 351,000 arrivals in 2009 and 312,000 last year.

 

SOURCE: Wikipedia | xe.com | Ministry of Tourism

 

Source: https://thethaiger.com/hot-news/tourism/myth-strong-baht-deterring-western-tourists-to-thailand

 

-- © Copyright The Thaiger 2019-06-22

Follow Thaivisa on LINE for breaking Thailand news and visa info

 

 

[WinnieTheKhwai]

Excellent article!  ❤️ 

(Now wait for the tinfoil madhatters claiming all the numbers are fake. ???? )

 

 

Edited June 22, 2019 by WinnieTheKhwai

[marko kok prong]

If the figures are produced by TAT,,well then Alice in Wonderland is a true story.

[keith101]

So were supposed to believe the numbers from the Ministry of Tourism which would include expat arrivals , fly in fly out , and business people and probably people from Laos ,  Cambodia as well as Myanmar coming here to work 

[Maverell]

The figures are probably close to the actual figures but they could be even better if the Baht was not so strong. In my view dark forces in the currency markets are at work not fundamentals.

[Yinn]

7 minutes ago, keith101 said:

So were supposed to believe the numbers from the Ministry of Tourism which would include expat arrivals , fly in fly out , and business people and probably people from Laos ,  Cambodia as well as Myanmar coming here to work 

You read it? Just want to be negative?

 

it says where they come from. Europe, Australia, Russia like that.

 

11 minutes ago, marko kok prong said:

If the figures are produced by TAT,,well then Alice in Wonderland is a true story.

So you think the TAT do the deal with the other countries government to lie also about where the “outbound”เ going?????

 

You have the secret amount? Or not?

[brokenbone]

i think tourists bother less with currency exchange then expats,

they already set their mind on spending whatever money they saved up on a couple of weeks holiday.

 

expats otoh are seeking to save money while here,

well those that hasnt lost the plot at least

[Traubert]

20 minutes ago, keith101 said:

So were supposed to believe the numbers from the Ministry of Tourism which would include expat arrivals , fly in fly out , and business people and probably people from Laos ,  Cambodia as well as Myanmar coming here to work 

The TM6 arrivals card has 12 different categories of visit on the back.

 

Perhaps they get their figures from the information provided by the visitor and pick out those who have ticked 'holiday?' Nationality is on the front of the card.

 

Yes, I think you are supposed to believe it, however difficult it might be for you.

[CGW]

7 minutes ago, Traubert said:

The TM6 arrivals card has 12 different categories of visit on the back.

Does anybody fill out the back section - it is done by choice - not mandatory!

[sammieuk1]

Sure when they get here there will be a shock of what your currency actually now buys here unless you now spend 30% less to try to balance the books like me????

[marko kok prong]

32 minutes ago, Yinn said:

You read it? Just want to be negative?

 

it says where they come from. Europe, Australia, Russia like that.

 

So you think the TAT do the deal with the other countries government to lie also about where the “outbound”เ going?????

 

You have the secret amount? Or not?

I think you have a lot to learn about Tat,my dear.

[MadMuhammad]

It’s just the whingy expats that the currency changes bother. All the conspiracy theories about manipulation, ‘they don’t want us hear’ are just a smoke screen by many to illicit sympathy because of their lack of planning/foresight. 

Mid I hear ‘combodia/Vietnam/Philippines is looking good!’ My head is gonna explode. If it’s looking good why are you still here?

[madmitch]

I'm not disputing the figures in the article but I can honestly say that a number of repeat tourists last season stated to me that they would not be coming back because Thailand had become too expensive: Swedes, Brits and Aussies, all countries whose own currencies are pretty weak right now.

 

New tourists will continue to come, of that I have no doubt, but it's sad to lose regular visitors.

 

I also believe the backpacker market was also down last year and some of this would definitely have to do with cost.

Edited June 22, 2019 by madmitch

[legend49]

2 hours ago, WinnieTheKhwai said:

Excellent article!  ❤️ 

(Now wait for the tinfoil madhatters claiming all the numbers are fake. ???? )

 

 

Most Visited Countries in the World 2018

• Spain: 75.6 million visitors.
• China: 59.3 million visitors. ...
• Italy: 52.4 million visitors. ...
• United Kingdom: 35.8 million visitors. ...
• Germany: 35.6 million visitors. ...
• Mexico: 35.0 million visitors. ...
• Thailand: 30.6 million visitors. ...
• Turkey: 30 million visitors. ...

Seems the above Thaiger article found the lost 8 million tourists for 2018; versus https://www.wildjunket.com/most-visited-countries/ . Was the article sponsored by TAT?

Secondly totally disagree its not an economic push-back. In December last year I was commissioned to set up a conference in CNX for 180 business persons globally for a Swiss company. After many hassles with hotels, transport, food venues, entertainment, it is amazing how these big hotels cant manage renting that many rooms, the costs of the total package was on par with Sydney prices for the same requirement this is where a large number was coming from.  So switched my inquiries to Vietnam for the conference; better support service for what we needed, a clean beach for recreation and 45% cheaper. So Thailand missed out on a nice money package, There was an economic map here in TV not long ago; to make $1US dollar in thailand takes 19 minutes, Vietnam 86 minutes, Cambodia and Myanmar 97 minutes. Easy proof that Thailand is 4 to 5 times dearer than other ASEAN countries. Not a mad hatter but the golden goose aint laying eggs anymore.

[upena]

Arrivals, not tourists. TAT cheats this way counting anyone entering the country as a foreign tourist arrival and then other media sources shorten it to "tourists". Excuse for proving your myth is false.

[Assurancetourix]

29 minutes ago, legend49 said:

Most Visited Countries in the World 2018

• Spain: 75.6 million visitors.
• China: 59.3 million visitors. ...
• Italy: 52.4 million visitors. ...
• United Kingdom: 35.8 million visitors. ...
• Germany: 35.6 million visitors. ...
• Mexico: 35.0 million visitors. ...
• Thailand: 30.6 million visitors. ...
• Turkey: 30 million visitors. ...

You have forgotten the first of the class:

 

France with 90 million visitors in 2018

 

https://www.efe.com/efe/english/business/france-was-world-s-top-tourist-destination-in-2018-with-90-million-visitors/50000265-3870503

[davemos]

Yep i know 3 people who are going to Cambodia instead of here Aus $to hit 20! Wonder what its foing to exporters must be killing their business.

[madmen]

1 minute ago, davemos said:

Yep i know 3 people who are going to Cambodia instead of here Aus $to hit 20! Wonder what its foing to exporters must be killing their business.

2 families I know from OZ are heading to samui and phuket. Not enough of a spread between cambo and thailand vs AUD to bother 2 week millionaires. Still cheaper than holidaying 2 weeks on an Oz island

 

[Traubert]

2 hours ago, CGW said:

Does anybody fill out the back section - it is done by choice - not mandatory!

Yes, people do, because they dont want problems at Immigration. Who sits on the plane thinking 'nah, I'm not bothering with that.....? It's only my immigration form.....'

 

It also asks whether people are in a tour group or individual travelers, so the people who shower the mandatory derision on the shift from tour groups to couples and small groups will be rejecting that information too.

 

If you're in denial, there's not much that can be done without psychological help.

[pikao]

3 hours ago, rooster59 said:

The Euro has also seen a steady decade-long slide from a peak around 50 Euro to the Thai Baht down to around 35 Euro to the local currency now.

50 Euros for one Thai Baht.....jeez

[30la]

The strong Baht is in my opinion provoked, when we can understand that we FARANGS (Western) are not well liked in this country, the best way to decrease the influx of Europeans, Americans and all the others not wanted is to make money harder.

[richard_smith237]

18 minutes ago, 30la said:

The strong Baht is in my opinion provoked, when we can understand that we FARANGS (Western) are not well liked in this country, the best way to decrease the influx of Europeans, Americans and all the others not wanted is to make money harder.

 

Approximately 20% of Thailands GDP (Approx. 2.3 Trillion Baht) is from Tourism..... 

 

I don't think the Ex SAS guy who propped up the bar with you thought about this properly before telling you that Westerners are not liked in this country and the way to get rid of us is to strengthen the Baht.

 

 

[CGW]

30 minutes ago, Traubert said:

If you're in denial, there's not much that can be done without psychological help.

What are you on about? I have NEVER filled out the back of the form - it states I don't have too! possible you should be following your own advice as for some reason you are exhibiting the symptoms of extreme paranoia! 

Get well soon ???? 

[Salerno]

3 minutes ago, CGW said:

I have NEVER filled out the back of the form - it states I don't have too!

I take it you're a Thai resident then?

[dabhand]

1 hour ago, legend49 said:

Most Visited Countries in the World 2018

• Spain: 75.6 million visitors.
• China: 59.3 million visitors. ...
• Italy: 52.4 million visitors. ...
• United Kingdom: 35.8 million visitors. ...
• Germany: 35.6 million visitors. ...
• Mexico: 35.0 million visitors. ...
• Thailand: 30.6 million visitors. ...
• Turkey: 30 million visitors. ...

Seems the above Thaiger article found the lost 8 million tourists for 2018; versus https://www.wildjunket.com/most-visited-countries/ . Was the article sponsored by TAT?

Secondly/snip

 

Think you will find that the figures noted in your post ( from 'wildjunket'? with an obvious error in the Thai figure) are for 2016, not 2018. I would tend to believe this more detailed wiki article:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Tourism_rankings

 

More detailed figures for Thailand can be found here (which match with the Wiki article):

http://www.thaiwebsites.com/tourism.asp

 

 

[Traubert]

22 minutes ago, CGW said:

What are you on about? I have NEVER filled out the back of the form - it states I don't have too! possible you should be following your own advice as for some reason you are exhibiting the symptoms of extreme paranoia! 

Get well soon ???? 

Ok, you never filled out the back of the form. 1 down, 29.9m to go.

 

Add delusions of grandeur to the denial.

[Nice Boyd]

Who cares they want Chins and Indians, Anyways 

[toenail]

The strong baht slowing down tourism is a myth. Many international travelers have “been there; done that” with Thailand so there are other places to visit in SE Asia such as Vietnam which isn’t damaged yet from mass tourism. Except for the expensive flights from N America or Australia, once you get to Thailand, lodging and food is still a bargain compared to Europe, Japan, Bali,  or South Korea. If the Cheap Charlie’s choose not to visit Thailand, all the better for the “regular traveler” visiting LOS.

[owenm]

It's not too many years ago that the AUD was worth more than USD, at around the time AUD would buy 35bht. Now the AUD is hovering around 67.4c to a USD. If the OZ dollar was still on parity with the USD it would be about 31bht, instead of a current poor 21bht.. 

 

The strength of the Thai baht doesn't help, but other outside western currency influences don't always help either. It wasn't too long ago that the Russian ruble dived due to western sanctions, and now sterling declining heavily with the Brexit shambles.. 

[Thingamabob]

Manipulation in full play. Last time it really hurt was when Soros busted Thailand 1997.