Strong baht sends jitters through Thai export sector

[HeyHeyHey]

And yet the cost in THB of imported goods never went down.

[shy coconut]

2 hours ago, baboon said:

My Ma in the UK now buys Canadian prawns / shrimp. She says the taste, quality and price blows Thailand out of the water.

Chang is also available at her local Sainsburys, at £1.99 a (large) bottle. Other options from other countries are available and cheaper...

The Chang beer is probably brewed and bottled under licence in a factory/ brewery in

Reading. 

Most "foreign" beers sold in UK supermarkets are locally produced if you read the lable.

[NightSky]

5 hours ago, marcusarelus said:

Who would buy baht in any large quantity and why?  

 

Bahtman would, he's the caped curb crawler. ????

[arithai12]

7 hours ago, marcusarelus said:

Nothing to do with the baht.  If they could have pushed it down they would have.  The problem is the USD and other Western currencies are going down and that means the baht goes up.  

USD, GBP, EUR, AUD, CNY.. they all have lost about 7-12% in the last year against the Baht. Even SGD lost considerably.

Ergo, the Baht has gone up, not the other way around as you claim.

Edited June 28, 2019 by arithai12

[nkg]

1 hour ago, arithai12 said:

USD, GBP, EUR, AUD, CNY.. they all have lost about 7-12% in the last year against the Baht. Even SGD lost considerably.

Ergo, the Baht has gone up, not the other way around as you claim.

 

Since December 1st 2018:

 

USD fell 5.28% against the THB
EUR fell 6.32% against the THB
JPY fell 0.89% against the THB
GBP fell 6.73% against the THB
AUD fell 10.9% against the THB
CAD fell 5.84% against the THB
CHF fell 5.46% against the THB
CNY fell 4.5% against the THB
SEK fell 9.49% against the THB
NZD fell 10.06% against the THB

 

[marcusarelus]

43 minutes ago, RobboR said:

 

 

Typically, a devaluation is achieved by selling the domestic currency in the foreign exchange market and buying other currencies. Suppose Thailand sells one billion baht and buys 32 million US dollars. From the point of view of the market, it is as if the supply of baht just increased. As in any competitive market, an increase in supply will cause the price (i.e. the exchange rate) to fall: one baht will be worth less than before.

Also printing more money is an option

 

Furthermore, there is still a lot of hot money in Thailand. If that disappears due to continued incompetence from the junta then there will be trouble ahead.

Also oil price is a major factor in Thailand. If that starts to head to $100 then be afraid.

 

China will be there to help an old friend out .....................surely, and with no ulterior motive!!

No one has enough money to effect change.  They tried it 1997 during the Asian Financial crisis and it didn't work and the baht crashed.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_Asian_financial_crisis

Thailand lacked the foreign reserves to support the USD–Baht currency peg, and the Thai government was eventually forced to float the Baht, on 2 July 1997, allowing the value of the Baht to be set by the currency market. This caused a chain reaction of events, eventually culminating into a region-wide crisis

 

[metisdead]

A troll post containing a disguised reference to HM the King has been removed as well as a reply. 

[Ozman52]

13 hours ago, marcusarelus said:

Nothing to do with the baht.  If they could have pushed it down they would have.  The problem is the USD and other Western currencies are going down and that means the baht goes up.  

The US (Trump) has set 3 criteria to determine currency manipulation; a trade imbalance considered excessive (7% ??), an actual dollar imbalance of $20 billion (currently $19 billion),  and steps taken to reduce the value of the currency, not applicable as the baht has been increasing in value.

It is not hard to see that if Thailand starts to push down the value of its currency, a 5% increase in the trade imbalance will see all 3 criteria met. What actions would result is a matter for speculation.

[soalbundy]

14 hours ago, Nong Khai Man said:

And at Least 53 to The GBP !!

You're funny without being obscene.

[Pilotman]

11 hours ago, elliss said:

 

gbp ,  38 bht , and falling . 

  Predicted to be 35 bht in 5 years .

    Update , in 5 mounths , more likely ..

     Baht , will continue to go up . Thailand has a stable economy.

 

Its a combination of the two. 

[lamyai3]

10 hours ago, baboon said:

Chang is also available at her local Sainsburys, at £1.99 a (large) bottle.

Asda has imported Singha at £2 per large bottle, or £6 for four. At £1.50 (58 baht) per large bottle, this is now pushing 10% cheaper than the local supermarket prices in Thailand. 

[Damrongsak]

13 hours ago, happy chappie said:

I'm in the uk at the moment.the shoppers have changing ways and now some of the higher end supermarkets are losing out to the cheaper ones because people here in the uk are watching their pennies.today Thai rice costs 94baht per kilo,basmati or long grain is 52baht per kilo....another baht or two and it'll cost double and no one will be interested in that.

In the USA I can get long grain white rice from Brazil or Uruguay at a local chain store for about 32- 34 Baht per kilo. Not Jasmine or Basmati, but acceptable.  I'll have to check the price of Basmati at the local Indian grocery. One of the German grocery stores (Lidl or Aldi) might be less.

Edited June 29, 2019 by Damrongsak

[Assurancetourix]

3 hours ago, RobboR said:

Countries can manipulate their currency up and down using a wide spectrum of instruments

Not only countries;

billionaires such as Sorros " the evil one " can do .

[roquefort]

4 hours ago, RobboR said:

Furthermore, there is still a lot of hot money in Thailand. If that disappears due to continued incompetence from the junta then there will be trouble ahead.

 

Can anyone explain why this hot money is flowing into Thailand? The current policy rate is 1.75%, less than US Treasuries which are considered a safe haven investment.

 

[30la]

Someone is making a lot of money speculating on currencies!

[spidermike007]

16 hours ago, marcusarelus said:

Nothing to do with the baht.  If they could have pushed it down they would have.  The problem is the USD and other Western currencies are going down and that means the baht goes up.  

Totally incorrect. The US dollar is holding its own against most major currencies. I check this daily. It is the baht, that is out of proportion to the dollar, the Australian dollar, the Euro, the pound sterling, and most other currencies. 

 

In terms of attending the meeting with the G20, that is amusing. But, when you really think about it, if he talks to Trump he will have about the same amount of knowledge, since Trump knows very little about fiscal policy, or trade negotiations. But Trump sure knows alot about raising deficits.

[Percy P]

9 hours ago, shy coconut said:

The Chang beer is probably brewed and bottled under licence in a factory/ brewery in

Reading. 

Most "foreign" beers sold in UK supermarkets are locally produced if you read the lable.

Beer is 99% water. Unless the water chemically is the same as Chang in Thailand is made from them it is not Chang. Same a champagne , It the grapes are not grown in Champagne  it can't be called Champagne . Grapes in different regions have different sweetness and chemical contents.

[roquefort]

12 minutes ago, RobboR said:

It's mainly Thai short term bonds

Yes, but normally speculators would be attracted by an interest rate differential. That isn't the case here with Thai rates at 1.75% so they must be betting on the Baht continuing to rise.

Edited June 29, 2019 by roquefort

[Assurancetourix]

13 minutes ago, RobboR said:

https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2111324/thailands-hot-money-problem-echoes-1997-asian-financial

very interesting press article;
is moving towards a new financial krack but may be even more serious than in 1997 ?

[Percy P]

54 minutes ago, Assurancetourix said:

Not only countries;

billionaires such as Sorros " the evil one " can do .

But it the Baht is not wanted it will drop in its value.Supply& remand. The more tourists come to Thailand the greater the demand

[fulhamster]

16 hours ago, kotsak said:

All is well..

 

Caption competition ....

 

[fulhamster]

16 hours ago, Nong Khai Man said:

And at Least 53 to The GBP !!

About what it was before the Brexit shambles

[TPI]

16 hours ago, Nong Khai Man said:

And at Least 53 to The GBP !!

And at least 29 to the AUD!!!!

[TPI]

54 minutes ago, RobboR said:

https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2111324/thailands-hot-money-problem-echoes-1997-asian-financial

A really interesting article. It brings the thought 'could it be that persons within Thailand may find an "expensive" baht an advantage when moving ill-gotten gains to the US'? Just a thought!

[toofarnorth]

10 hours ago, shy coconut said:

The Chang beer is probably brewed and bottled under licence in a factory/ brewery in

Reading. 

Most "foreign" beers sold in UK supermarkets are locally produced if you read the lable.

If Chang is brewed in Reading which canal do they draw their water from to get that unique flavour ? Oh the river Kennet , that runs into Reading. Yep brewed in reading.

[toofarnorth]

1 hour ago, fulhamster said:

Caption competition ....

 

Where's the point.

[RichardColeman]

Maybe I'm just a daft old codger these days, but if your goods are too expensive due to the high baht, if you have built in profit margins why don't you just drop your prices for a short time to cope with currency fluctuation. Sure better to make some money and stay afloat than lose everything.

[observer90210]

Amazing....individual posters on TVF have foreseen the issue many man months ago when the THB was ascending.....and it took them all this time, with a battalion of "experts" to come to the very previsible conclusion....

[Deerculler]

I know the Thai bigwigs don’t listen to anyone here.

It would be nice to see some common sense suggestions made here.

[Eric Loh]

19 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

Mr. Boonyasith Chokwatana, chairman of the Sahapat Group, a leading Thai distributor of consumer products, has urged the government to address the problem as a matter of urgency to protect the export sector.

Doubt Boonyasith has been truthful in his complain regarding the strong baht. A strong baht really has two sides of the coin. Sahapat Group import farm equipments and related agriculture items and gain from better exchange rate. Almost all manufacturers import their raw materials and gain significant currency advantages. Are they keeping these extraordinary exchange profit while complaining about the strong Baht. Are they just being greedy.