Thai agents: Half-year travel dips

[Lashay]

1 hour ago, chickenslegs said:

Seems to me that this is an article about travel agents losing customers.

I guess that travel agents are losing business all over the world as it becomes so easy for travellers to organise their own flights and accommodation, using the internet.

 

Yes it is about travel agents but if you notice its Thai travel agents, what tourist uses them direct? Virtually none unless they book something at airport before they leave.

 

But what does happen if you say book a hotel with Expedia and a airport pick up they will farm the pick up to a local travel agent. Same with any tours or such (don't think car rental places are members)

 

Their numbers generally follow overall tourist trends with maybe slight extra weighting on first time visitors but will generally never include visa runners and expats.

 

They are better indicator of the actual tourist market than raw arrival numbers which includes a hell of a lot of people who are not tourists or might even be here just to change flights to go to another country.

[Lashay]

1 hour ago, Traubert said:

 

Just three days ago the much derided TAT (howls of derision) said tourism was up.

 

 

You mean down no? Close to 2% if remember correctly (which is still far to low a drop)

 

They are even lowering their forecasts for rest of the year (though still trending upwards) but those forecasts have never been more than a combo of wishful thinking and guesses. Same as tourist revenue/spend by nationality numbers.

[Traubert]

3 minutes ago, Lashay said:

You mean down no? Close to 2% if remember correctly (which is still far to low a drop)

 

They are even lowering their forecasts for rest of the year (though still trending upwards) but those forecasts have never been more than a combo of wishful thinking and guesses. Same as tourist revenue/spend by nationality numbers.

No. The arrivals v forecast numbers were 2% down. Not the arrivals.  They were still up.

 

It's the way it gets spun  to get everyone clicking and pontificating.  You said it yourself in your second paragraph, growing but not as fast as they would like.  The numbers are still huge. The income is still huge.

[daveAustin]

9 hours ago, Brigand said:

Well, you could say they have weaponized the baht. A high baht does two obvious things that they want atm, firstly it gets rid of many westerners that are living full time here that they seem uninterested in now, and secondly they can strip the tourists that do come for their foreign currency and there are still plenty even if numbers are down. There are still loads of Chinese and Indians coming so it's good for them to have a strong currency. The Euro, and especially the pound, are doing badly because of uncertainty and not because their economies are bad ... markets hate uncertainty. Once the direction of the UK is decided (in or out deal/WTO) and the EU's path can be seen for the next 5 years then these two currencies will bounce back. I'm unsure why the Thai government is happy to let their exporters/farmers feel the pain with falling exports, but I guess the elite is ambivalent on this and has plans that are more important, like procurement power of certain foreign goods for import or investment for a select few overseas.      

Good post. Ridding of farang element for sure (can hardly blame them there) and indeed, someone is making a massive amount of money.

But that individual will no doubt be along in a minute to refute this; that it is all 'organic', local economy is stupendous, vast inflows of currencies etc etc. Let's just take a minute, ignore and appreciate the bleedin' obvious.

[eggers]

Apart from strength of Bht, Immigration system & staffing of entry points + recently announced , Customs will check all baggage after Immigration !! These factors do little to encourage travellers to come to Thailand. The other growing issue is increasing bureaucratic treatment of ‘Expats’ via continual monitoring & archaic immigration laws, used to leech money, either legally or illegally!! 

Prayut & his Gov’t need to URGENTLY deal w/ immigration issues affecting Expats,as Expats contribute greatly to Thai Economy, day in, day out, NOT fly in, fly out tourist!!! 

[rkidlad]

My friend asked about visiting me in Thailand in December. I told him by all means do. I just told him to check the exchange rate. When we first holidayed in Thailand in 2005 we were getting up to 75 baht to the pound. Now it’s what - 39 baht? Add to that the price of alcohol (yes, alcohol is a big factor for many tourists who visit here) and it doesn’t seem so great for him now. 

[Sal Boto]

13 hours ago, dcnx said:

People are tired of Thailand’s crap. It’s endless nonsense here. It takes a lot but you can actually kill the Goose that lays the golden egg. I don’t think that’s the case yet but it’s not far away. Especially when Thailand’s neighbors are more welcoming and easier than ever to get around in.

 

Thailand had an advantage for decades because of the infrastructure and ease of getting around inside the country. Thailand was cheap and easy. Well, it’s not that cheap anymore and all the other dirt holes in the area have come up and are now easy. 

 

The Thais will have to learn the hard way that they are not now and never were special. They just had a jump on the competition. And honestly, what’s left to see here that hasn’t been ruined by mass tourism? If you’ve been here twice, you’ve seen enough unless you’re a sex tourist.

Sex tourists repeat ad nauseum.   Regular tourist come once or twice then move on.   Just sayin.........................

[Peterw42]

It appears the OP is being misinterpreted, its  the number of people using "Thai travel agents" not overall tourist numbers. It maybe represents a fall in tourist numbers but most likely represents people making their own bookings and travel arrangements. 

 

Just lower the Baht is a little simplistic as there are many factors that influence the value of a currency, the main factor being plain old supply and demand, buy a car, a hardrive, or come here on holidays and you increase demand for the baht.

 

 

[TheFishman1]

It’s just thai logic Tit

[mikebell]

Me & TGF visited Vietnam a couple of months back.  She was very impressed with Da Nang & Hoi An.  The hotels and infrastructure compared very favourably with her home country AND, she reckoned, was a third cheaper.

[Isaan sailor]

Let’s connect the dots.  Baht relentlessly ratcheting up for two years. BoT keeps interest rates high. BoT admits continued massive foreign inflows. Government inks deals with China—and turns back on West.

Mysterious entity dumping billions into BoT?  Hint: starts with a “C” and ends with “A”.  And it ain’t California...

[moe666]

14 hours ago, from the home of CC said:

wish I had 10 baht for every 'the sky is falling in Thailand' story I've read in the last 17 yrs...

With you on that, transfered some money a few days ago and the rate was 31.14 which isn't bad althought 1 month ago it was 32.1. For me as long as the baht is above 30 I do not much care. The down side for the US is a the uncertain affects that the trade war our President in his infinite wisdom has decided to have with China and a few other countries does not help the situation.

There does seem to be a increase of western tourist in CM at present, places that have been empty have a good crowd the last few days and more western tourist walking around than the last few months.

Edited July 6, 2019 by moe666

[LomSak27]

14 hours ago, from the home of CC said:

wish I had 10 baht for every 'the sky is falling in Thailand' story I've read in the last 17 yrs...

 

But this is a newspaper article. And they usually control that. They may try to control expats (ask our troll team about that). However whenever I see a Thai media article saying tourism is down, tourists are down, export figures are down, etc.  I sit up and take notice.

 

IE If they a re admitting it, it must be really bad, and or, going on so long that denials are no longer believed.

[ZAKY]

15 hours ago, HeyHeyHey said:

Tourism down, exports down, gdp growth down, debt up

 

But but but... THB the strongest currency in Asia, if not the world

Normal trend since the foreigners hunting game started! This does not left insensitive those who feel they are no more welcomed even they are not overstaying and not intend to do do. This has also lead to them to see if the grass is greener elsewhere. 

[alfalfa19]

I'm no economist, but I would not let a 2,3, or 5 % raise in the baht-to-dollar ratio deter me if I was planning to visit thailand.    However, I am deterred by several other factors, such as:  the absolute contempt shown for foreign tourists in many of the major tourist destinations,  the taxi mafias,  the double pricing, the Russians, the  traffic, etc, etc.  

[ABCinSG]

Devil's in the details, those statistics are based on one factor alone, the meet and greet numbers.

 

While it could be an indicator of general tourism numbers, I believe it's more of a shifting of trends.

 

More and more tourists now are foregoing the hand-holding of guides to explore by themselves, opting for short half and one day tours, if any, instead of a full tour from start to end.

 

Based on my own tour company's numbers, airport meet and greet/transfers are almost only used by families and large groups where logistics is an issue.

 

For tourism in general, china is still going strong, but less on large group tours and more on Free and Independent Travellers, with a marked increase in custom tour requests and half/one day tour bookings.

 

This also means more younger, world-savvy tourists are coming in from China, vs the days of those from the countryside lured by 0-day scams and very cheap group package tours.

[Road Warrior]

well --- Thai government should look at the value of Thai baht ,,exchange rates are totally crap 

for all residents and visitors 

[mike787]

            Seems like Thai immigration is having much more success than TRUMP on stopping immigration or stemming it.  Forget the WALL, just apply Thai immigration laws to immigrants and Visas.  

           Report every 90 days to IO (aka. mom); deposit 800/400K, mandatory health insurance, drawing detailed directions so we can locate you, and stand in long lines for days to be rejected (possibly or pay agents to do it).  

           Welcome to the land of ME!  

[peter14]

Pay back time..... they make it so hard for tourist visa too... karma 

[Peterw42]

2 minutes ago, Road Warrior said:

well --- Thai government should look at the value of Thai baht ,,exchange rates are totally crap 

for all residents and visitors 

Governments and their policy can only influence a currency to a small degree, the rest of it is the market. Basically, people want baht, for whatever reason, a thai holiday, to buy thai products, china exporting via Thailand etc etc.

if there is one person selling baht and two people buying baht the price will go up. if two people are selling baht and one person buying, the price goes down.

[joecoolfrog]

14 hours ago, from the home of CC said:

wish I had 10 baht for every 'the sky is falling in Thailand' story I've read in the last 17 yrs...

You make a good point but no economy is bomb proof , especially one that seems geared to benefit an elite minority only. Dont forget that the last time the baht crashed it did so in a spectacular fashion.

[from the home of CC]

6 minutes ago, joecoolfrog said:

You make a good point but no economy is bomb proof , especially one that seems geared to benefit an elite minority only. Dont forget that the last time the baht crashed it did so in a spectacular fashion.

I believe this economy washes a lot of Chinese money,  imo there's a lot more in play than a small group of 'elites'..

[from the home of CC]

35 minutes ago, LomSak27 said:

 

But this is a newspaper article. And they usually control that. They may try to control expats (ask our troll team about that). However whenever I see a Thai media article saying tourism is down, tourists are down, export figures are down, etc.  I sit up and take notice.

 

IE If they a re admitting it, it must be really bad, and or, going on so long that denials are no longer believed.

see what they say in 8 months..

[Derek B]

15 hours ago, Brigand said:

the elite is ambivalent on

Ambivalent on most things that matter to the man in the street I would of thought............same everywhere though.

[johnarth]

15 hours ago, SteveK said:

Don't forget that the insanely strong Thai baht is very good news for the powerful people in Thailand who buy foreign investments. Then when the baht is devalued they sell the investments and can start building sky scrapers in Bangkok on the proceeds.

yes and maybe pay for subs and rail as well

[mike1967]

Does anyone think it's ever possible for the Thais to realise that western money doesn't come from the magic money tree? You know, the place we go to pick endless money that we ''ALL" have apparently!!!

Edited July 6, 2019 by mike1967
Posted before completing

[connda]

Time to raise prices by 25%.  ????

[MobileContent]

The Thai government will take notice as Don Ross who runs TTR Weekly out of Chiang Mai is an expert on the Thai tourism industry and gets his data from the Thai travel agents and not TAT. 

[dallen52]

Err.  

What planet are they on?

Agoda says 40% occupancy. Pattaya. 

My accommodation is 20 rooms and I am the only person there.

4 weeks now..

Nirun condo around the corner has 7000 apartments. 

Many German and Swiss and European friends have flown out and maybe not coming back. 

GF,s are left in the rooms wondering why farang no longer comes to stay with them..

 

The government can fix this..

Up to you, as they say in Thailand. 

[PhonThong]

15 hours ago, Cadbury said:

This is nothing. Just wait till the new "elected:" breed of Prayut's hand picked trough feeding turnips get into parliament.

It is almost time to ring the bell. TKO!

Goodnight Thailand; pull down the shutters.

Would the last expat out, please turn off the lights.