UK after brexit...GBP v THAI BAHT

[nomad2019]

has this been asked before ?  cant find a link so ill ask here,     i  am in uk,       i have not the slightest insight regarding currencies and money affairs,   i have lost a lot of money in LOS due to being " thick " .

 

so seeking help from experts here or at least those with more sense than myself 555.

what is likely scenario after brexit ?        GBP to fall further, baht gets stronger ?    after all GBP has steadilly been falling for how long now ? 

 

what are your thoughts for the future  

[geoffbezoz]

Back to the historic  all time low. 8 baht = 1 GBP

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thai_baht

[JamJar]

How did you lose money? By not transferring money when the exchange rate was more favourable?

 

The consensus is that the Bank of England may actually cut the Interest rate in the event of a 'no deal'. So perhaps a further drop in the value of the £.

 

https://www.ft.com/content/18ee4744-0c4e-11e9-acdc-4d9976f1533b

[Kwasaki]

16 minutes ago, nomad2019 said:

what are your thoughts for the future 

IMHO brexit has some affects of course and there are few English traitors here in Thailand IMHO and those people that target brexit here only think exchange rate and never planned there future for seismic events. ????

 

Looking at expert financial future reviews the £ is gonna be at a 37 low and a 41 high for a long time to come unless Thailand takes a hit like it did in mid 2005. 

Personally I believe the Uk will prosper in time, maybe not in my time and believe the EU will collapse.

 

[FritsSikkink]

Your biggest worry shouldn't be Brexit but if Scotland will be still in the UK. They have been sponsoring the UK for decades and when they will be independent, the pound will nose dive. 

[bobwat]

22 minutes ago, FritsSikkink said:

Your biggest worry shouldn't be Brexit but if Scotland will be still in the UK. They have been sponsoring the UK for decades and when they will be independent, the pound will nose dive. 

You had your chance but being a typical Jock no bottle

[Chivas]

If we actually manage to leave with a deal that most consider a compromise there certainly wont be any downside and Sterling will certainly surge against the Dollar initially and as such Sterling/Baht will rise on the back of it

 

Leave with no deal and all bets are off. Quite possible Sterling will fall to $1.10. That would put Sterling/Baht at around 33. My view is we'll cobble together a deal and Sterling will start to rise.

[elliss]

18 minutes ago, Chivas said:

If we actually manage to leave with a deal that most consider a compromise there certainly wont be any downside and Sterling will certainly surge against the Dollar initially and as such Sterling/Baht will rise on the back of it

 

Leave with no deal and all bets are off. Quite possible Sterling will fall to $1.10. That would put Sterling/Baht at around 33. My view is we'll cobble together a deal and Sterling will start to rise.

 

 No deal, sure .    33  int the next twelve mounths . 

  Never expected to be a poor farlang , in paradise..

 

 

[SheungWan]

If we actually manage to leave with a deal that most consider a compromise there certainly wont be any downside and Sterling will certainly surge against the Dollar initially and as such Sterling/Baht will rise on the back of it
 
Leave with no deal and all bets are off. Quite possible Sterling will fall to $1.10. That would put Sterling/Baht at around 33. My view is we'll cobble together a deal and Sterling will start to rise.

That would be a deal for having one's cake and eating it. Prayers are in order.

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[SheungWan]

IMHO brexit has some affects of course and there are few English traitors here in Thailand IMHO and those people that target brexit here only think exchange rate and never planned there future for seismic events. [emoji1787]
 
Looking at expert financial future reviews the £ is gonna be at a 37 low and a 41 high for a long time to come unless Thailand takes a hit like it did in mid 2005. 
Personally I believe the Uk will prosper in time, maybe not in my time and believe the EU will collapse.
 

And then we woke up and GBPTHB had hit 38+ Good job some of us planned for the stupidity of a Hard Brexit.

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[SheungWan]

How did you lose money? By not transferring money when the exchange rate was more favourable?
 
The consensus is that the Bank of England may actually cut the Interest rate in the event of a 'no deal'. So perhaps a further drop in the value of the £.
 
https://www.ft.com/content/18ee4744-0c4e-11e9-acdc-4d9976f1533b

If the outcome of no-deal Brexit is a drop in intereest rates, then Sterling further down the chute.

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[nomad2019]

8 hours ago, geoffbezoz said:

Back to the historic  all time low. 8 baht = 1 GBP

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thai_baht

 

cant see anything mentioning that

[Perhaps2more]

8 hours ago, FritsSikkink said:

Your biggest worry shouldn't be Brexit but if Scotland will be still in the UK. They have been sponsoring the UK for decades and when they will be independent, the pound will nose dive. 

Will Scotland still be using British pounds then?

[Perhaps2more]

9 hours ago, geoffbezoz said:

Back to the historic  all time low. 8 baht = 1 GBP

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thai_baht

Never know it to be less than 30 bahts / £

[geoffbezoz]

1 hour ago, nomad2019 said:

 

cant see anything mentioning that

If you took the the trouble to read it you would have done,!!

 

"Before 1880 the exchange rate was fixed at eight baht per pound sterling, falling to 10 to the pound during the 1880s. "

[Kinnock]

Both currencies are likely to fall in my view.

 

UK because business will suffer because of obstacles to exports and increased cost of imports (I know the Brexit supporters will not agree, but it is inevitable) and the Baht is over-valued and will fall due to rising domestic debt and falling economic importance.

 

Not always practical - but buying a third currency or perhaps gold may be wise?  And try to use GBP from pensions or local wages in UK and locally earned THB in Thailand if possible - as its the currency transaction that hit us. 

 

Best situation for people loving in Thailand with savings or earnings in UK is Brexit is overturned in a second referendum and THB falls to a more realistic level - but think this is unlikely.

[wordchild]

i doubt there is much meaningful trade directly between the two currencies. The GBP/THB rate is really a derivative of how both currencies trade relative to the US dollar (and other important pairs) . what really counts is what the pound is doing against the dollar and also then what the Baht (independently)  is doing against the dollar.

 The pound has been trending weaker against the dollar recently and seems to be heading back to the post brexit low of around 1.22, as of right now it is trading in FX markets at 1.246, having traded above 1.30 for much of 2019, i guess as markets have become more concerned recently about a no deal scenario. Most commentators seem to expect the pound to hit 1.10 if no deal or recover to 1.35 plus if a deal (or no Brexit).

The Baht has been the strongest currency in Asia recently relative to the dollar. Its been seen as something of a safe haven currency and attracted strong inflows.

FWIW my own feeling is that the Baht looks a bit stretched to the upside here against the USD and certainly relative to local peers eg the Sing dollar.  I sort of share the view that a no deal Brexit  is just so clearly stupid that, in the end,  something will be cobbled together. But i also feel that the UK has been  fundamentally weakened by all this (in terms of global standing and investment attentiveness)  that its not just going to bounce back easily or quickly. However if i was to invest new money in either currency over the next 6/12 months i would go for GBP, FWIW.   

Edited July 10, 2019 by wordchild

[wordchild]

there is a research piece on the THB from Goldman just out this morning, sorry i cant link. They have an interesting angle on the recent (unusual) strength in the baht. They argue that most of the recent strength is due to higher gold prices. They make the point that Thailand is one of the largest gold trading centres in Asia and ,given the rise in the gold price, many of Thailand's gold traders are sitting on large profits. when this has happened in the past these traders  tend to sell or hedge their gold positions from US dollars back into the Thai baht. Hence there has been large switching activity from USD into baht from this source and this has caused the recent spike.  That's the Goldman view anyways.

Whatever the cause, the recent strength of the baht does look to have been a bit unusual and it maybe that it starts to unwind a bit from here.

[FritsSikkink]

4 hours ago, Perhaps2more said:

Will Scotland still be using British pounds then?

They already have Scottish pounds, which value is the same as the British pound though not accepted by many English stores.

[FritsSikkink]

12 hours ago, bobwat said:

You had your chance but being a typical Jock no bottle

I am Dutch

[Kwasaki]

8 hours ago, SheungWan said:

And then we woke up and GBPTHB had hit 38+ Good job some of us planned for the stupidity of a Hard Brexit.

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Brexit had nothing to do with my initial retirement plan I look at previous baht history, the poxy US 2008 world bank scam hit me the most. 

[SheungWan]

Brexit had nothing to do with my initial retirement plan I look at previous baht history, the poxy US 2008 world bank scam hit me the most. 

As the saying goes: "when one door closes, another one slams in one's face"... and so it goes. As for 2008-09, I stop listening when the blaming mantra pops out. It usually means in currency terms that someone was caught out ie they didn't hedge when times were good.

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[SheungWan]

Funny how the Hard Brexiteers always predicting how Sterling is going to bounce back but the pound then swoons at each and every mention of a no-deal Brexit. Putting 2 and 2 together just seems beyond them.

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[wgdanson]

5 hours ago, Kinnock said:

And try to use GBP from pensions or local wages in UK and locally earned THB in Thailand if possible - as its the currency transaction that hit us. 

 

please explain. GBPs are GBPs whether from a pension, wages in UK or your sister selling her body in Bognor Regis! (Other towns are available !)

Locally earned THB....not on a retirement extension.

[Chivas]

5 hours ago, wordchild said:

 What really counts is what the pound is doing against the dollar and also then what the Baht (independently)  is doing against the dollar.

Well done FINALLY someone on Thaivisa who understands how the bottom line for Sterling/Baht is calculated 24/7

Have never come across soooo many who are absolutely clueless on a forum as here including ones that claim to be financial gurus

[phka]

10 hours ago, SheungWan said:

And then we woke up and GBPTHB had hit 38+ Good job some of us planned for the stupidity of a Hard Brexit.

Sent from my SM-N935F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app
 

Funny how destroying the British economy is thought to be patriotic 

Probably why the stupid working class voted brexit that's why they are working class and always will be while farage and his 900 thousand euros a year salary will prosper

[Pib]

Thanks goodness Brexit is being expertly managed by politicians.  ????

[robertson468]

Not only do you need to consider the imponderable of Brexit (deal or no deal), you also need to look at how Thailand is faring financially.  It is beginning to look like a devaluation of the baht might be on the cards as the current strength is hurting it's exports quite a lot, also the tourists industry has also taken a hit.....11.5% down this year.  Another hit on the Thai economy is the USA/China debacle, which initially Thailand said it would not have a detrimental affect on the economy.......WRONG!  The Central Bank of Thailand is also very concerned about the high level of individual debt and non-performing loans.  So much so, they have just imposed higher payments for mortgages, not to mention the already surplus of houses for sale.  So, while at the moment (a phrase worth remembering) all things are rosy in the garden, there are however major destabalising factors just around the corner, which just might, if they come together, jump up and bite Thailand on their financial butt!

[hobobo]

18 hours ago, FritsSikkink said:

Your biggest worry shouldn't be Brexit but if Scotland will be still in the UK. They have been sponsoring the UK for decades and when they will be independent, the pound will nose dive. 

What currency will Scotland adopt? A haggis?

[FritsSikkink]

20 minutes ago, hobobo said:

What currency will Scotland adopt? A haggis?

They already have a currency, how little some people know.