Prayut II govt facing ‘four big economic challenges’

[webfact]

Prayut II govt facing ‘four big economic challenges’ 

By The Nation

 

Worapol

 

The incoming government will face four big economic challenges in the second half of this year, a former senior finance official has warned. 

 

Worapol Sokatiyanirak, former chair of the National Legislative Assembly’s Finance, Banking, Financial Institute and Capital Market Sub-committee, delivered the warning during his speech on “Thailand’s Strategy to Deal with Global Economic Crisis” at the National Institute of Development Administration.

 

Worapol said the first challenge was the ongoing US-China trade war, which could escalate into a currency war and impact the global investment atmosphere – especially for export-reliant countries like Thailand.

 

The second challenge for Thailand is the economic crisis in Europe, which stems from the debts of southern European countries, problems surrounding immigration, the low employment rate, and instability of the EU after Britain leaves the Union.

 

The third is Thai household debt that has risen by over Bt1 trillion to Bt12.8 trillion in the last year and now accounts for 78.6 per cent of the country’s GDP.

 

Worapol also pinpointed migration of manufacturing to Vietnam and Indonesia due to Thailand’s slow economic growth. To counter the trend, the government may need to reduce corporate tax for international companies from 20 to 12 per cent to attract more foreign investors, he said.

 

He also urged the new government to curb the strong baht in the next six months. This could be achieved, he said, with a 0.25 per cent cut in the policy interest rate to accelerate economic growth, along with clarification of long-term policies on infrastructure investment, networking with neighbouring countries, boosting agricultural products’ value, and building bases for the digital, creative and health economies.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30372658

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2019-07-10

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[Oziex1]

These are significant challenges, but let's not concern ourselves with this right now as there are machines that might be cheating people out of winning a cute little fluffy toy. 

[PatOngo]

1 hour ago, webfact said:

The third is Thai household debt that has risen by over Bt1 trillion to Bt12.8 trillion in the last year and now accounts for 78.6 per cent of the country’s GDP.

Thai mobile users are also willing to pay 30 per cent more for selected 5G services, while 50 per cent of the local respondents said they are willing to pay Bt150 extra in fees. The survey also showed that consumers were looking for new 5G-ready applications and services, and will gladly pay for the privilege of using them. 

[YetAnother]

1 hour ago, webfact said:

The incoming government will face four big economic challenges in the second half of this year, a former senior finance official has warned.

quite prescient, his points are well thought-out, these are the people we need in decison-making government positions

[GeorgeCross]

1 hour ago, YetAnother said:

quite prescient, his points are well thought-out, these are the people we need in decison-making government positions

 

yes agree though i think he could have gone a stage further and 'jawboned' multiple interest rate cuts until the situation improved (FED style). that would send the hot money running and the baht down more effectively without getting thailand on trump's radar

 

 

[Chang_paarp]

3 hours ago, webfact said:

Worapol also pinpointed migration of manufacturing to Vietnam and Indonesia due to Thailand’s slow economic growth. To counter the trend, the government may need to reduce corporate tax for international companies from 20 to 12 per cent to attract more foreign investors, he said.

Nothing to do with the costs involved with using THB and Thai labour, or the confidence the current government is instilling into the international community.

[Bayrat]

"Worapol also pinpointed migration of manufacturing to Vietnam"

 

This should be the main worry for Thai industry.  

 

The rest of the article is complete rubbish.

[BuckBee]

thailands lost lot of manufacturing to vietnam and tourist and it ain't getting it back .

It not just much cheaper in vietnam it lot less business and visa hassle vs the hub of muddles .

Thailand rice export took huge dive from rice scandal of stock piling rice to manipulate price, add to that current cost due to high baht and it simply helping your rice competitors to increase sales and supply .

No idea why they raised interest rate end of last year, was totally illogical .

Edited July 10, 2019 by BuckBee

[Lenny Jones]

Challenge 1 - - (blame somebody else) the US/ China bunfight.

 

Challenge 2 - - (Blame somebody else) Europe's housekeeping

 

Challenge 3 - - (Blame somebody else) The locals cannot save

 

Challenge 4 - - I couldn't find that but it must refer to a poor government posing as a democracy

[tracker1]

I suspect the new Government will take it all in like a dose of Epson salts treating it for the same reason full of shit !

[expatfromwyoming]

4 hours ago, webfact said:

Thai household debt that has risen by over Bt1 trillion to Bt12.8 trillion in the last year and now accounts for 78.6 per cent of the country’s GDP.

I would suggest that Thailand is currently undergoing a major economic crisis the household debt being at 79 percent of GDP!!!!

[expatfromwyoming]

1 hour ago, BuckBee said:

Thailand rice export took huge dive from rice scandal of stock piling rice to manipulate price, add to that current cost due to high baht and it simply helping your rice competitors to increase sales and supply .

Made worse since 2014 by countries not wishing to do business with a illegitimate ruling party

[robblok]

9 minutes ago, expatfromwyoming said:

I would suggest that Thailand is currently undergoing a major economic crisis the household debt being at 79 percent of GDP!!!!

Yea.. it should be I mean in the good ol USA its only 76 percent.. such a huge difference.

[Lupatria]

There is another challenge: to get rid of generals uneducated in economics running the show.

Edited July 10, 2019 by Lupatria

[Oziex1]

47 minutes ago, Father Fintan Stack said:

There are many still in denial about the speed of economic growth in Vietnam.

Other SEA Nations need to take example of the vision of Vietnam, They're not getting getting caught in China's web either.

[BestB]

This is fake news as P Prayut already told us all thai economy is in tip top shape, if anything it has improved under his leadership. 

 

Thai economy was never affected by any previous US or EU or CN crisis.

 

Nothing at all to worry about ????

[connda]

7 hours ago, webfact said:

The third is Thai household debt that has risen by over Bt1 trillion to Bt12.8 trillion in the last year and now accounts for 78.6 per cent of the country’s GDP.

"No no no, no look at this.  Look, look, over there - farang sit on 'ancient wall' and point feet at Buddha statue. No, no problem with debt in Thailand.  Thais are 'rich' people.  See!!! Everyone have motorcycle or car, smartphone, big flat-screen TV at home.  Rich, rich, rich Thais.  Thai bank have money maak-maak to loan to rich, rich, rich Thais.  Only 20% interest a year!!!  Ohhh, look over their.  Farang ride on top of songtaew.  Farang work at job only for Thai!!!"

[connda]

1 minute ago, connda said:

"No no no, no look at this.  Look, look, over there - farang sit on 'ancient wall' and point feet at Buddha statue. No, no problem with debt in Thailand.  Thais are 'rich' people.  See!!! Everyone have motorcycle or car, smartphone, big flat-screen TV at home.  Rich, rich, rich Thais.  Thai bank have money maak-maak to loan to rich, rich, rich Thais.  Only 20% interest a year!!!  Ohhh, look over their.  Farang ride on top of songtaew.  Farang work at job only for Thai!!!"

Move along.  Nothing to see here.  Keep moving...

[Jimbo2014]

I thought the four big challenges were: 1) Corruption; 2) Competence; 3) Transparency and 4) Equality.

I guess my take on it is different to those in power.

[yellowboat]

9 hours ago, webfact said:

Worapol also pinpointed migration of manufacturing to Vietnam and Indonesia due to Thailand’s slow economic growth. To counter the trend, the government may need to reduce corporate tax for international companies from 20 to 12 per cent to attract more foreign investors, he said.

Or better yet, be more welcoming.  Vietnam immigration policies are attractive and simple.  Not true for Thailand.  Vietnamese have a Chinese work ethic, and it is cheaper and more fun than Thailand.  How long will that 12% incentive last?  Hope Vietnam teaches arrogant Thailand a lesson. 

[Benmart]

4 hours ago, robblok said:

Yea.. it should be I mean in the good ol USA its only 76 percent.. such a huge difference.

Refocus. This article is about Thai debt and not that of the USA. Also consider writing lessons.

[robblok]

54 minutes ago, Benmart said:

Refocus. This article is about Thai debt and not that of the USA. Also consider writing lessons.

Why would I do that, someone is saying Thai debt is a problem, while it is at compatible levels of the US debt. Do explain to me why it is ok in one country and not an other. 

 

If the remark was made about non performing loans I would have reacted differently. 

[Matzzon]

14 hours ago, webfact said:

The incoming government will face four big economic challenges in the second half of this year, a former senior finance official has warned.

I can hear another couple of basic stimulus updates in the making between the measly value of 20-40 billion baht each.

[HeyHeyHey]

7 hours ago, robblok said:

Why would I do that, someone is saying Thai debt is a problem, while it is at compatible levels of the US debt. Do explain to me why it is ok in one country and not an other. 

 

If the remark was made about non performing loans I would have reacted differently. 

The top 1% who own 66% of Thailand aren't those in debt.

 

The rest 99% sharing 34% are the 79% debt/GDP, often earning so little that even if they cut all what they can not much left.

 

The average yank can cut few take-away pizzas a week and put $100 weekly towards their debt.

[sammieuk1]

Top tips sell the watches empty the offshore accounts return the embezzled mount Everest of cash 4 big economic challenges gone ????

[nickstav]

I know very little about economics and won't pretend that I do know about it. It seems he has laid out a coherent analysis. Some of these problems are not exclusive to Thailand, so I'm not going to bash the Thais. Currency manipulation, loss of manufacturing, and excessive debt are problems here and elsewhere. What I have observed is that credit is being thrown around irresponsibly. My gf's family is an example I can see. They want things that were not available to them before, that's only natural, but It is the creditor's responsibility to say "no, you haven't demonstrated the ability to pay back what you will owe". I see this as a danger that will affect the everyday lives of Thais and they should beware of the credit trap.