Any outlook the Oz dollar will improve or keep dropping against the baht?

As the Chinese economy is slowing it may also weaken the AUD.The baht should hold and gain some in this trade.There have been attempts recently to weaken the baht,but inflows are strong and growth is still evident.Crystal balls are just crystal balls,but for the next 6 months the trend is the bahts friend.

There is talks of more interest rate cuts coming in Australia, and some are forecasting it to come down to zero. If so, that will soften the dollar more. If you really want to get worried, the three-year  forecasts are all gloom and much doom but that is what they are - looking into a crystal ball and just guessing. The Aussies have not got much more ammo left and really, every man and his dog are in the market now trying to get a return. I have had returns between 4 to 5000% over the last 10 years in our family's trading, but you got to count losses as well and there has been a few naming TLS as one. It's all not one way.

Failing some world changing event get used to 19 baht to the dollar until the mid 2020's.

The Asian Century is upon us. Same as the Aussie buck 5 years 2010 to 2015 were good times, now it is their turn.

Maybe the Chinese will spend again...unlikely...the Indians...maybe. Don't hold your breath though.

Amazing that we have one of the worlds most resource rich countries but pay the worlds highest price for electricity and pretty well everything else. But then again when we have roughly 2 productive people working for 3 non productive people (including government workers who do not produce anything) then it is not hard to understand.

The country is pretty well stuffed.

 

Poor man my country.

Edited August 4, 20196 yr by emptypockets

10 hours ago, emptypockets said:

Failing some world changing event get used to 19 baht to the dollar until the mid 2020's.

The Asian Century is upon us. Same as the Aussie buck 5 years 2010 to 2015 were good times, now it is their turn.

Maybe the Chinese will spend again...unlikely...the Indians...maybe. Don't hold your breath though.

Amazing that we have one of the worlds most resource rich countries but pay the worlds highest price for electricity and pretty well everything else. But then again when we have roughly 2 productive people working for 3 non productive people (including government workers who do not produce anything) then it is not hard to understand.

The country is pretty well stuffed.

 

Poor man my country.

USSR was Upper Volta with rockets, OZ is Upper Volta with $50 haircuts. The economy has third world painted over it. I thought AUD is going to sink slowly but looks like it will go sub 20 to Baht much faster. All eyes are on China. If China slows down and stop buying our resources, or the Chinese start selling the Aussie real estate, it is going to get ugly. Getting poorer by the day ???? 

My prediction is the AUD will continue to drop against the THB. The AUD is now at a 10 year low of 0.68c against the USD and likely to go lower. Westpac says it will go to 0.66c. So if this happens and the THB stays where it's at you will get less baht for your AUD. 

AUD getting 20.75 at Vasu Exchange this morning, and less than 20.50 baht at banks. Probably less than 20 at the airport now. And I think it's got a way to fall yet...

Since mid 2012 the trend has been downward....I don't see why it should stop at least in the near term.

 

On 8/5/2019 at 2:15 PM, Cadbury said:

My prediction is the AUD will continue to drop against the THB. The AUD is now at a 10 year low of 0.68c against the USD and likely to go lower. Westpac says it will go to 0.66c. So if this happens and the THB stays where it's at you will get less baht for your AUD. 

 

AUD being pulled down by a plunging NZD after Reserve Bank New Zealand just dropped interest rates by .5%. You might see .66c to the USD in the next 24 hours...currently at .6723 and falling.

Edited August 7, 20196 yr by mstevens

15 baht within 2 year's

59 minutes ago, mstevens said:

 

AUD being pulled down by a plunging NZD after Reserve Bank New Zealand just dropped interest rates by .5%. You might see .66c to the USD in the next 24 hours...currently at .6723 and falling.

I can remember the days (2001) when it got down to 50c to the USD and interest rates in Australia were 15%+. 

12 minutes ago, Cadbury said:

I can remember the days (2001) when it got down to 50c to the USD and interest rates in Australia were 15%+. 

 

Would be bloody scary if the AUD got down to .50 cents US. Imagine how bad the baht rate would be then.

1 hour ago, mstevens said:

 

Would be bloody scary if the AUD got down to .50 cents US. Imagine how bad the baht rate would be then.

 

Most of the OAP expats won't be able to cover the retirement visa requirements.

On 8/4/2019 at 5:18 PM, totally thaied up said:

There is talks of more interest rate cuts coming in Australia, and some are forecasting it to come down to zero. If so, that will soften the dollar more. If you really want to get worried, the three-year  forecasts are all gloom and much doom but that is what they are - looking into a crystal ball and just guessing. The Aussies have not got much more ammo left and really, every man and his dog are in the market now trying to get a return. I have had returns between 4 to 5000% over the last 10 years in our family's trading, but you got to count losses as well and there has been a few naming TLS as one. It's all not one way.

interest rates are on hold but New Zealand dropped theirs by .5 % 

1 hour ago, mstevens said:

 

Would be bloody scary if the AUD got down to .50 cents US. Imagine how bad the baht rate would be then.

its down to 67 cents already

1 hour ago, Cadbury said:

I can remember the days (2001) when it got down to 50c to the USD and interest rates in Australia were 15%+. 

Type	1980	2001
Federal funds, effective rate	13.35%	3.88%
Prime rate charged by banks	15.26	6.91
Discount rate 1	11.77	3.40
Eurodollar deposits

21 hours ago, Cadbury said:

I can remember the days (2001) when it got down to 50c to the USD and interest rates in Australia were 15%+. 

I remember this and I think I converted a stack of US to AUD at .48. Great for me at the time but dealing in mostly AUD now so being a little more careful.

I also remember having to mortgage borrow at 18% about 40 years ago. Swings and roundabouts as the saying goes.

Low currency great for exports , but squeeze on spending as imports cost more, reducing inflation. It’s a tricky game. On top of that , stupids are borrowing due to peer pressure, social media and buy now pay later ( research by First State) , and the likelihood of a stock market crash , i’d say we are all in for a bit of PAIN. Some lucky buggers holding cash, gold and Bitcoin are in for some big gains. Expat pensioners are in big trouble. 

As for the baht, the economy here is stuffed. Inflows are not helping the man on the street. Just that very very rich 1% . And the poor are also “ borrowing” for anything and everything. 

Not having APRA like regulatory controls, the Thai Assistant Governor of their Central Bank pleads with banks on The Bangkok Post to pull in the reins in on lending. Bloody joke! 

Interest rates in Australia will be negative soon enough if the government passes the new legislation limited using cash to $10,000 (2 years jail penalty). Plenty of info of the web. The issue we have is the foreign debt and the interconnection in the global banking system. The IMF is writing up the case for negative rates. When the global collapse happens, the IMF will impose interest rates on any country requesting a bailout. The USD is the global reference currency and most foreign debt is in USD. Doesn't take a genius to work out who a high USD will benefit. With the Thai baht all but pegged to the USD, it will continue rising.

The Thais must drop the baht to hold onto export markets as the global economy slows, GDP relies on exports. Conversely we Aussies, what do we export? Rocks! The only thing we make these days is houses which we buy and sell to each other. Our exports are only 10% of GDP whereas consumer spending is over half. No real wage increases and rising costs and the consumer is staying home. Our dollar is reflecting this, it is losing value. Why will it stop sinking until something improves!

On 8/7/2019 at 10:02 AM, madmen said:

15 baht within 2 year's

Close. Analysts are predicting just over 16 baht for 2021

These charts are frightening, after the losses this year, we are facing a further 20-25% decline from the current value. WOW changes my circumstances.

But beware one daily blip tends to vary the medium and long range figures a lot. I actually followed these figures for a month to see how much change happened. First day in and the Australian employment figures drove the actual to the edge of the high low band. The whole chart was vastly different the next day. One thing that makes tracking the baht hard is it's trading volume is so low. It seems that someone caught short can trade a small amount and effect the rates by several percent.

Having said that it is a useful short term reference to time any foreign exchange you may be planning. I use the daily chart and then check with the listed events on the economic calendar for things that will effect the numbers. 

It's gonna keep dropping, no way is it going back up.  Make sure you have a Plan b, C, etc set up.  This is going to take a very long time to recover.

If it achieves parity, the 800k baht parked in Thai banks becomes the best investment of your life.

The sky is falling lets all run up north and live like a thai on 10k a month you will then be fine except for the mossies and cock roachers and trotty botty

7 minutes ago, Mick501 said:

If it achieves parity, the 800k baht parked in Thai banks becomes the best investment of your life.

Let's hope we don't get to that point.

I reckon at 18 Baht to the dollar, day to day living costs in Thailand and Australia are about equal.

 

The main exception is housing/rental. If you don't own a house in Australia, housing costs back there will still be prohibitive compared to Thailand

Aud over the past month has actually gone up over the inr, might be time to go to goa. 

2 hours ago, Stevemercer said:

I reckon at 18 Baht to the dollar, day to day living costs in Thailand and Australia are about equal.

 

The main exception is housing/rental. If you don't own a house in Australia, housing costs back there will still be prohibitive compared to Thailand

Never mind rents, when was the last time you paid an energy bill in Oz? Took the dog to the vets? I avoid comparisons for the sake of sanity. 

How Australia has stopped this from happening earlier is a mystery to me. 

1 hour ago, ncc1701d said:

How Australia has stopped this from happening earlier is a mystery to me. 

There is no intention of stopping it, why would they? If the currency is worth less, less is imported. Inside Australia the value of the dollar is immaterial, we all use it! Our exports are relatively cheaper so more rocks get sent out and GDP goes up. ScoMo can claim our economy is doing well and near budget surplus. All BS!