Is the closure of your favorite bar or restaurant imminent?

[Leaver]

21 hours ago, Destiny1990 said:

Just Look around you to know what’s up.

I don’t foresee a booming high season coming either.

There's a big difference between a booming high season and no high season at all. 

 

I'm not sure this coming high season will produce enough revenue for many places to justify keeping the doors open in the hope for better times.

[CGW]

On 8/23/2019 at 9:29 PM, RoadWarrior371 said:

Pattaya is not going away, but I laugh at all the gloom and doom posts.

True! folks seem to (conveniently) forget that Pattaya is in the centre of the Eastern Seaboard, most probably have no idea what that means & consider Walking street  the centre where all the money is generated.

Thailand's economy is doing very well (surprisingly!) vast majority of the goods produced are produced within the Eastern seaboard and shipped from Laem Chabang, the money this generates is huge!

[onera1961]

On 8/13/2019 at 9:08 AM, Ron jeremy said:

But buying a bar and living the dream has turned into a Stephen King movie for most.

The easy days of owning brothels and make a living pimping girls are over.

[Leaver]

21 hours ago, CGW said:

True! folks seem to (conveniently) forget that Pattaya is in the centre of the Eastern Seaboard, most probably have no idea what that means & consider Walking street  the centre where all the money is generated.

Thailand's economy is doing very well (surprisingly!) vast majority of the goods produced are produced within the Eastern seaboard and shipped from Laem Chabang, the money this generates is huge!

I started this thread to ask if members think their favorite bar or restaurant will be able to survive the tough times being experienced now, and most likely in the near future.

 

Pattaya is not going to fall into a hole and disappear.  I never suggested that it would. 

 

I basically asked if members thought their favorite bar or restaurant will still be open 6 to 12 months from now.  

 

Nothing to do with Pattaya as a city, Walking Street, the Thai economy, and Thailand's manufacturing sector.

[jacko45k]

13 minutes ago, Leaver said:

Nothing to do with Pattaya as a city, Walking Street, the Thai economy, and Thailand's manufacturing sector.

It would be if my favourite bar was on Walking St. I think it will survive. 

[Leaver]

11 minutes ago, jacko45k said:

It would be if my favourite bar was on Walking St. I think it will survive. 

Good point, but there is every chance the demographic of customers will change, which may see it become not your favorite bar anymore.

[Leaver]

On 8/30/2019 at 3:36 PM, onera1961 said:

The easy days of owning brothels and make a living pimping girls are over.

I agree, but the changing demographics of tourists here has a lot to do with it. 

 

In the past, westerners would go to a bar, have a few drinks, buy a few lady drinks, and pay a bar fine.

 

The new demographic of tourists, particularly Indians, don't drink, don't buy lady drinks, and don't pay bar fines.  They go for the freelancers, or go to the big massage places. 

[Huayrat]

On 8/30/2019 at 12:33 PM, CGW said:

True! folks seem to (conveniently) forget that Pattaya is in the centre of the Eastern Seaboard, most probably have no idea what that means & consider Walking street  the centre where all the money is generated.

Thailand's economy is doing very well (surprisingly!) vast majority of the goods produced are produced within the Eastern seaboard and shipped from Laem Chabang, the money this generates is huge!

Thailands economy is doing very bad.. Have you been awake for the last 6 months?

[CGW]

4 minutes ago, Huayrat said:

Thailands economy is doing very bad.. Have you been awake for the last 6 months?

Really? must just be a strange coincidence that their currency reserves reached an all time high a month ago ????

Probably why the Baht is so weak! 

[Golden Triangle]

I was in a bar yesterday that I have been drinking in since 2010 and before, it has been renovated a little bit, yesterday there were 4 customers in there, I was in there for 3 hours, probably more staff than customers, very sad. 

 

The majority of customers would be golfers and of Aussie & Kiwi extraction with a smattering of Europeans.

[jacko45k]

13 hours ago, Golden Triangle said:

I was in a bar yesterday that I have been drinking in since 2010 and before,

Ten past eight?

[Leaver]

On 9/1/2019 at 8:13 PM, Golden Triangle said:

I was in a bar yesterday that I have been drinking in since 2010 and before, it has been renovated a little bit, yesterday there were 4 customers in there, I was in there for 3 hours, probably more staff than customers, very sad. 

 

The majority of customers would be golfers and of Aussie & Kiwi extraction with a smattering of Europeans.

This is what I am seeing, with no drop in the quality or service offered by the restaurants or bars.  There simply isn't the western tourists coming here in the numbers they used to.

 

Many could survive low season, and be busy come high season, but even if there was a reasonable high season, this low season is so low that I doubt it remains viable to keep the doors open.   

 

It could already be over for many businesses. 

Edited September 5, 2019 by Leaver

[Leaver]

On 9/1/2019 at 6:49 PM, CGW said:

Really? must just be a strange coincidence that their currency reserves reached an all time high a month ago ????

Probably why the Baht is so weak! 

How long before the strong baht impacts the tourism industry, which represents over 10% of GDP, and is a huge source of national employment?

 

How long before it impacts Thailand's manufacturing industry, and their exports?

 

What about Thailand's record household debt levels? 

[CGW]

38 minutes ago, Leaver said:

How long before the strong baht impacts the tourism industry, which represents over 10% of GDP, and is a huge source of national employment?

 

How long before it impacts Thailand's manufacturing industry, and their exports?

 

What about Thailand's record household debt levels? 

You stated that "Thailand's economy is doing very bad." now you are saying that in the future, potentially? the strong Baht will have an adverse effect, big difference, at this time the economy is in great shape - surprisingly - for years now there have been predictions of gloom and doom for Thailand, somehow they have managed to weather the storm rather well.

[Leaver]

8 hours ago, CGW said:

You stated that "Thailand's economy is doing very bad." now you are saying that in the future, potentially? the strong Baht will have an adverse effect, big difference, at this time the economy is in great shape - surprisingly - for years now there have been predictions of gloom and doom for Thailand, somehow they have managed to weather the storm rather well.

I didn't state that, the member Huayrat did.

 

I'm simply saying the Thai economy is not, and will not be, as rosy as you portray it.

 

We are really starting to see the effects of the strong baht on tourism, which provides a lot of employment across Thailand, and is a big source of revenue. 

[CGW]

2 hours ago, Leaver said:

I'm simply saying the Thai economy is not, and will not be, as rosy as you portray it.

I actually agree with you - in a roundabout way ????

It amazes me how strong the economy is & how strong their "balance of payments" is, they have had a long run of "luck" maybe this time their luck will finally run out? They do have plenty of money in the bank though to see them through any hard times.

[Leaver]

11 hours ago, CGW said:

I actually agree with you - in a roundabout way ????

It amazes me how strong the economy is & how strong their "balance of payments" is, they have had a long run of "luck" maybe this time their luck will finally run out? They do have plenty of money in the bank though to see them through any hard times.

The problem is, that "strong economy" you talk about only benefits a small percentage of Thai's, being, the wealthy Thai elite, and those cash reserves in the bank, are of no benefit to the majority of the Thai population.  

 

The middle class, lower class, and poor, will really be hurting in the near future, particularly those working in the tourism and manufacturing sectors, and with loans. 

 

Here is just one small article of many. 

 

https://www.chiangraitimes.com/economy-business/thailands-household-debt-steadily-increasing-to-dangerous-levels/

 

Like most countries at the moment, Thailand is also heading for a crash.  

 

 

Edited September 7, 2019 by Leaver

[topt]

13 hours ago, Leaver said:

 

Like most countries at the moment, Thailand is also heading for a crash.

So simplistically if it happens to "most countries" what is the net effect?

 

Also simplistically since you seem determined to predict some sort of meltdown for the economy how long, in your view, before it starts to have a real effect. IE serious economic woes not a few hundred bar/restaurant closures? 

[Leaver]

18 minutes ago, topt said:

So simplistically if it happens to "most countries" what is the net effect?

 

Also simplistically since you seem determined to predict some sort of meltdown for the economy how long, in your view, before it starts to have a real effect. IE serious economic woes not a few hundred bar/restaurant closures? 

Most countries do not have their tourism industry representing over 10% of their GDP, and have tourism as such a major source of employment.  This is where Thailand differs from most countries. 

 

Thailand relies heavily on tourism, and that includes the Thai's working in the cash economy, within the tourism industry.

 

The western tourist market is in rapid decline, and I would not be surprised to see the Chinese government devalue the yuan. thus, knocking out a portion of the China tourist market.

 

With the strong baht, Thailand's manufacturing industry will soon be impacted.  

 

Thailand currently has record household debt. 

 

I can't name a specific economic quarter where the bite will come, but the above does not bode well for the Thai economy.

 

Do you disagree?

[Leaver]

On 8/31/2019 at 1:34 PM, jacko45k said:

It would be if my favourite bar was on Walking St. I think it will survive. 

If your favorite bar is on Walking Street, I think you might be in there by yourself this high season. 

[jacko45k]

1 hour ago, Leaver said:

If your favorite bar is on Walking Street, I think you might be in there by yourself this high season. 

Well I doubt it actually, although I would not be testing that 24/7.

 

[Leaver]

On 9/9/2019 at 3:03 PM, jacko45k said:

Well I doubt it actually, although I would not be testing that 24/7.

 

It's possible some of those places change their name and theme, and target Indians and Chinese in the future.  So, whilst your favorite place will still be there, it might not be your favorite place for much longer. 

[jacko45k]

1 minute ago, Leaver said:

It's possible some of those places change their name and theme, and target Indians and Chinese in the future.  So, whilst your favorite place will still be there, it might not be your favorite place for much longer. 

That has happened with a hotel I used to use regularly. My favourite beer-bar is Western owned and claims to be doing 'OK'. As to GGBs, I would say any are at risk. 

[Leaver]

18 hours ago, jacko45k said:

That has happened with a hotel I used to use regularly. My favourite beer-bar is Western owned and claims to be doing 'OK'. As to GGBs, I would say any are at risk. 

We can all see it's already happening here.  There are Indian restaurants popping up everywhere. 

 

The question is, just how many establishments will be converted, and over what period of time, and will one's favorite restaurant, bar, or even as you say, hotel or guest house,  also be converted in the future. 

[kinyara]

I have a couple of regular places I frequent in Central Pattaya Beach Road, one a beer bar one an all round restaurant and bar, and a couple on the main drag in Jomtien where I live, one a Sports Bar/restaurant and one a small restaurant and bar. I can't see any of them closing because I think the common denominator they have a formula that can weather any temporary downturn which is what the OP is speculating on. Any longer speculation than that is pointless as economic conditions that affect any tourist destination are impossible to predict.

1) Good location

2) Quality service

3) Correct pricing within it's market achieving the balance between attracting maximum custom and allowing a sustainable profit.

4) Most importantly they attract a wide customer demographic, age, nationality, single, married, families, groups and have a solid regular custom in the low season. The beer bar I'd obviously remove the family and perhaps married criteria :)). Happy to see the odd small group of young to middle aged Indians and Chinese with money in my local Sports Bar spending on drinks and a meal.

 

The strong establishments offering the above formula I believe will always survive and may in fact benefit if there is a thinning out of less well run or competitive businesses. Normal Pattaya/Jomtien cycle I would say.

[Ling Kae]

Boom Bar in L K Metro, closed, shutters down. Dispute between Thai female license holder and farang partner.

 

It's the same old same old. The bars and restaurants that are doing well are the ones that sell their beer and food at resonable prices. To name a few successful ones: Billabong, Triangle, Marquee, Sailor, Kilkenny, Golf society and many more are doing well. The ones that tend to fail are the ones that try charging rediculous prices for beer or food.

[sunnyboy2018]

On 8/26/2019 at 7:42 AM, Leaver said:

It's called, "entertainment." 

No its not. Stay at home and watch sport on TV if you want. Its crass  low IQ  entertainment which generates horrible anti social atmosphere in bars. Bar were much better places before the trend took of in 2004.  Thailand was a better place and Pattaya was a better place before it was invaded by sports fans. In the UK most pubs have withdrawn the TVs. Pub Owners just dont want alternatingly hysterical and glowering footie fans, disturbing the pub, never eating,  hardly drinking rarely having conversations or  actually socialising. 

[Leaver]

2 hours ago, kinyara said:

I can't see any of them closing because I think the common denominator they have a formula that can weather any temporary downturn which is what the OP is speculating on.

Do you think there will be a temporary downturn, or a more long term global recession? 

2 hours ago, kinyara said:

The strong establishments offering the above formula I believe will always survive

I agree, but not everyone's favorite establishment is a strong establishment. 

 

Some people may prefer a smaller, less crowded establishment.  In effect, what we may see is some globalization here.  The bigger establishments survive, whilst the smaller establishments close, and then we are left with only what the bigger establishments are prepared to offer their customers. 

[Leaver]

1 hour ago, Ling Kae said:

Boom Bar in L K Metro, closed, shutters down. Dispute between Thai female license holder and farang partner.

 

It's the same old same old. The bars and restaurants that are doing well are the ones that sell their beer and food at resonable prices. To name a few successful ones: Billabong, Triangle, Marquee, Sailor, Kilkenny, Golf society and many more are doing well. The ones that tend to fail are the ones that try charging rediculous prices for beer or food.

Billabong and Triangle are 2 for 1 bars.  That means, they need a big crowd to turn over huge amounts of product, selling at small margins. 

 

Any downturn in the crowd has a big an immediate effect on the viability of the business.

 

I said in another post, I was in Triangle Bar 2 weeks ago and there were hardly any customers.  Selling at 2 for 1, if you can't even get the local expats in, that's not a good sign. 

[Leaver]

1 hour ago, sunnyboy2018 said:

No its not. Stay at home and watch sport on TV if you want. Its crass  low IQ  entertainment which generates horrible anti social atmosphere in bars. Bar were much better places before the trend took of in 2004.  Thailand was a better place and Pattaya was a better place before it was invaded by sports fans. In the UK most pubs have withdrawn the TVs. Pub Owners just dont want alternatingly hysterical and glowering footie fans, disturbing the pub, never eating,  hardly drinking rarely having conversations or  actually socialising. 

We're not in 2004, are we? 

 

What anti social atmosphere are you talking about?  Sport connects people with a common interest. 

 

You want to talk about anti social atmosphere, try everyone on their phone apps all the time, not conversing with anyone face to face. 

 

As far as Thailand being a better place, the whole world was a better place in 2004. 

 

Sure, some pubs in the UK have gone sports free, but most old boys here don't even know what an internet stream is, so it's easier for them to go to a sports bar. 

 

I have the facilities to watch any sport I want at home, but I often arrange with friends to meet at a sports bar to catch up with them and watch a match.  A far cry from what you describe as being anti social.