UK lawmakers against no-deal Brexit to bring forward legislation

[DannyCarlton]

7 minutes ago, dunroaming said:

Valid point but when you look at the options they are all an absolute nightmare.  Conservatives led by Johnson, Labour led by Corbyn and Brexit Party led by Farage.  I see a massive migration by Brits to mainland Europe!  I've already bought my Spanish phrasebook.

For the first time in my life, I'll be voting Lib Dem.

[Rookiescot]

1 hour ago, Forethat said:

The only other issue I see with that scenario is the following GE. We'd basically find ourselves governed by the Brexit Part. As much as I would like to see us leave I don't think I'm prepared to allow them to run the country, but that's exactly what I think will happen. Expect at least two parties to be more or less annihilated.  

Fair comment but I dont think the Brexit party will actually take that many seats.

They will take votes yes but I'm not sure they have the concentration of votes in many constituencies to actually return many MP's.

The scenario I see is Labour and the Conservatives both having their vote share cut but still getting most of the seats between them.

As for the Lib Dems. I think they will increase the number of seats they have but it wont be the breakthrough they hope for. The campaigns against them are going to make it a difficult election for them. 

[Rookiescot]

1 hour ago, vogie said:

An interesting point was raised on the Sophy Ridge Show yesterday, it said that MPs could vote to extend Art50 but it would be non binding. But John Bercow could actually step in and making it binding forcing Boris Johnson to apply for an extension, but then a point was raised, it said once we have applied for our extension we could actually veto our own extension.

This is what I've heard and not necessary what I believe, as much as I want to.

We are well down the rabbit hole now.

God knows what the next few months hold.

The only thing I hope is that everything stays peaceful. If we start getting riots then I think its a downward spiral from there.

I honestly could see Johnson being stupid enough to put troops on the streets. 

[tebee]

12 minutes ago, Rookiescot said:

We are well down the rabbit hole now.

God knows what the next few months hold.

The only thing I hope is that everything stays peaceful. If we start getting riots then I think its a downward spiral from there.

I honestly could see Johnson being stupid enough to put troops on the streets. 

You should not need 2 general elections, 2 leadership elections, the closing of parliament and suspension of the rule of law to implement a result which has majority support in the country

[metisdead]

An off topic post has been removed. 

[Forethat]

55 minutes ago, Rookiescot said:

Fair comment but I dont think the Brexit party will actually take that many seats.

They will take votes yes but I'm not sure they have the concentration of votes in many constituencies to actually return many MP's.

The scenario I see is Labour and the Conservatives both having their vote share cut but still getting most of the seats between them.

As for the Lib Dems. I think they will increase the number of seats they have but it wont be the breakthrough they hope for. The campaigns against them are going to make it a difficult election for them. 

You could be right, but I suspect the next GE in case of a failure to deliver Brexit will be more of a second referendum for many who voted leave. And because leave voters are spread across the other parties - can we expect a number of them to vote leave again (Brexit Party)?

Edited September 2, 2019 by Forethat

[dunroaming]

54 minutes ago, Rookiescot said:

Fair comment but I dont think the Brexit party will actually take that many seats.

They will take votes yes but I'm not sure they have the concentration of votes in many constituencies to actually return many MP's.

The scenario I see is Labour and the Conservatives both having their vote share cut but still getting most of the seats between them.

As for the Lib Dems. I think they will increase the number of seats they have but it wont be the breakthrough they hope for. The campaigns against them are going to make it a difficult election for them. 

I think it is more likely that we will end up with a coalition government and it certainly looks like a general election is imminent now.  Question is would the Conservatives under Johnson go into coalition with the Brexit Party?  I think Johnson is desperate enough.  

 

I also think that the Liberal Democrats will certainly gain seats but only enough to make third place.  Labour could block an early election which would be the wise move at this point but after Corbyn has been calling for one it is hard to see him doing that.  Johnson would go all out for a win promising big spends but then not delivering.  He has already been called out over the promised police numbers. 

 

We really are living in interesting times.  If it written as a novel it would be thrown out as being completely unbelievable.

[Rookiescot]

1 hour ago, tebee said:

You should not need 2 general elections, 2 leadership elections, the closing of parliament and suspension of the rule of law to implement a result which has majority support in the country

Which version of leave has a majority of support in the country?

Now leave won 52-48 (of those that voted) but many of that 52% were not voting for a no deal Brexit.

Stop claiming that the will of the people is not being implemented because neither you or I can claim to know what the actual will of the people is.

[Rookiescot]

45 minutes ago, Forethat said:

You could be right, but I suspect the next GE in case of a failure to deliver Brexit will be more of a second referendum for many who voted leave. And because leave voters are spread across the other parties - can we expect a number of them to vote leave again (Brexit Party)?

Aye but I dont see them damaging the vote share of Labour or the Conservatives at a constituency level enough to actually return that many MP's.

Lets say the Brexit Party (its actually a company owned by Farrage)  gets 20 MP's. Now that is going to be negated by the Lib Dems on their own. Throw in the SNP (they are looking like making big gains) Plaid Cymru and independents and the Brexit Companies results fade to obscurity.

I do see a hung parliament. How the math works out is anyones guess.

[Rookiescot]

43 minutes ago, dunroaming said:

I think it is more likely that we will end up with a coalition government and it certainly looks like a general election is imminent now.  Question is would the Conservatives under Johnson go into coalition with the Brexit Party?  I think Johnson is desperate enough.  

 

I also think that the Liberal Democrats will certainly gain seats but only enough to make third place.  Labour could block an early election which would be the wise move at this point but after Corbyn has been calling for one it is hard to see him doing that.  Johnson would go all out for a win promising big spends but then not delivering.  He has already been called out over the promised police numbers. 

 

We really are living in interesting times.  If it written as a novel it would be thrown out as being completely unbelievable.

Pretty much agree with all of that.

I do think Johnson would work with the Brexit Party.

But whether the numbers would be there to give them a majority is another matter.

[bannork]

1 hour ago, tebee said:

You should not need 2 general elections, 2 leadership elections, the closing of parliament and suspension of the rule of law to implement a result which has majority support in the country

The Leave vote was only 37% of the electorate. Where's the majority support in the country?

[tebee]

51 minutes ago, dunroaming said:

I think it is more likely that we will end up with a coalition government and it certainly looks like a general election is imminent now.  Question is would the Conservatives under Johnson go into coalition with the Brexit Party?  I think Johnson is desperate enough.  

 

.....

But unless the Brexit party go into coalition with the Conservatives it's very likely they won't get any seats at all. They've not got the % to give them a breakthrough and they are too spread out. 

[Forethat]

8 minutes ago, tebee said:

But unless the Brexit party go into coalition with the Conservatives it's very likely they won't get any seats at all. They've not got the % to give them a breakthrough and they are too spread out. 

When you say seats are you referring to ministers in a coalition?

Or do you think they are unlikely to get any seats at all in the house?

 

I find it unlikely that as much as 52% who voted leave would opt for an alternative that meant remain. LD got 12 seats last time. Expect Brexit party to get lot more. A LOT.

Edited September 2, 2019 by Forethat

[DannyCarlton]

1 hour ago, Rookiescot said:

Fair comment but I dont think the Brexit party will actually take that many seats.

They will take votes yes but I'm not sure they have the concentration of votes in many constituencies to actually return many MP's.

The scenario I see is Labour and the Conservatives both having their vote share cut but still getting most of the seats between them.

As for the Lib Dems. I think they will increase the number of seats they have but it wont be the breakthrough they hope for. The campaigns against them are going to make it a difficult election for them. 

The big questions regarding a forthcoming GE is will it be Post or pre Brexit and post Brexit will we have left or will we remain.

 

The GE certainly won't take place pre Brexit or at least not until long after October 31st. Corbyn will not call a vote of no confidence in the near future to trigger an election. Labour aren't doing well in the polls and even if he did, the power still remains for Johnson/Cummings to set the date. On recent form, he/they will set a date as far as possible into the future and it would play no part in the Brexit shennanigans in the short term. The tories don't want a GE before Brexit as Farage has promised to field a candidate in every constituency and would split the Tory vote in 2, possibly leaving them as the 3rd party which was the only reason Cameron called the referendum in the first place. So no GE in the near future.

 

Post Brexit, if Brexit wins the day and an election is called, the Brexit party is dead in the water, as it was when Cameron called the referendum, no seats for them and Farage signs on the dole. The tory vote will hold up well and they should retain the government. Labour's vote will be slightly depleted and the Lib Dems will make modest gains.

 

If we remain in the EU post Brexit, expect the Brexit party to contest many seats and split the Tory vote and I don't expect the Tories or the Brexit party to gain many seats. The Lib Dems will make good gains and could become the second party behind Labour, or possibly a LIb Dem Labour coalition, which IMO wouldn't be a bad thing.

 

Interesting times and near impossible to predict without a crystal ball, which I don't have. (Take note, nauseous, vogie et al.)

[Forethat]

1 minute ago, DannyCarlton said:

Post Brexit, if Brexit wins the day and an election is called, the Brexit party is dead in the water, as it was when Cameron called the referendum, no seats for them and Farage signs on the dole. The tory vote will hold up well and they should retain the government. Labour's vote will be slightly depleted and the Lib Dems will make modest gains.

 

If we remain in the EU post Brexit, expect the Brexit party to contest many seats and split the Tory vote and I don't expect the Tories or the Brexit party to gain many seats. The Lib Dems will make good gains and could become the second party behind Labour, or possibly a LIb Dem Labour coalition, which IMO wouldn't be a bad thing.

I agree with, and I can't believe the words are coming out of me mouth - DannyCarlton.

 

Actally, I couldn't have said it better myself.

[Jip99]

11 minutes ago, DannyCarlton said:

The big questions regarding a forthcoming GE is will it be Post or pre Brexit and post Brexit will we have left or will we remain.

 

The GE certainly won't take place pre Brexit or at least not until long after October 31st. Corbyn will not call a vote of no confidence in the near future to trigger an election. Labour aren't doing well in the polls and even if he did, the power still remains for Johnson/Cummings to set the date. On recent form, he/they will set a date as far as possible into the future and it would play no part in the Brexit shennanigans in the short term. The tories don't want a GE before Brexit as Farage has promised to field a candidate in every constituency and would split the Tory vote in 2, possibly leaving them as the 3rd party which was the only reason Cameron called the referendum in the first place. So no GE in the near future.

 

Post Brexit, if Brexit wins the day and an election is called, the Brexit party is dead in the water, as it was when Cameron called the referendum, no seats for them and Farage signs on the dole. The tory vote will hold up well and they should retain the government. Labour's vote will be slightly depleted and the Lib Dems will make modest gains.

 

If we remain in the EU post Brexit, expect the Brexit party to contest many seats and split the Tory vote and I don't expect the Tories or the Brexit party to gain many seats. The Lib Dems will make good gains and could become the second party behind Labour, or possibly a LIb Dem Labour coalition, which IMO wouldn't be a bad thing.

 

Interesting times and near impossible to predict without a crystal ball, which I don't have. (Take note, nauseous, vogie et al.)

 

A reasoned argument...... got a like from me.

 

 

Quite a fascinating situation with the country polarized roughly 50/50 over Brexit.

If you are dead against Brexit you will not vote for the Conservative or Brexit parties. If you are a Brexiteer you will not vote Labour, Lib Dems or Greens. There will be an unknown number who have a ‘neutral’ opinion on Brexit and will vote for other reasons ie for the party that they believe can best manage the country.

The previous elections were in 2010, 2015 and 2017.

The Tories polled 10.7m votes, 11.3m and 13.6m.

Labour was 8.6m, 9.3m and 12.9m.

Liberals 6.m, 2.4m and 2.4m

UKIP n/a, 3.9m and 0.6m

Greens 0.3m, 1.1m and 0.5m

SNP 0.5m, 1.5m and 0.98m

The above does not tell the full picture as there is no proportional representation and therefore the figures do not represent the number of seats won. For example the ratio of votes to seats was 1.2 to 1 for Conservatives and 1 to 1 for Labour. UKIP won no seats but polled almost 4m votes in 2015.


A big factor will be whether Brexit has been achieved or not and Nigel Farage could have a big influence. Another factor is whether an election is called on the back of a no confidence vote.


I am guessing that the Brexit party could attract at least 5 million voters. Equally, they could become largely irrelevant in the unlikely event Boris goes for a clean break Brexit.

If, as is widely speculated, Boris brings an ‘improved ‘ deal to the HoC, that parliament can support, then Brexit is done. Except - leaving on the basis of the Withdrawal Agreement is unacceptable to the Brexit party. That doesn’t really matter if Boris thinks he can operate to 2022 without a commons majority - does he really want to rely on the DUP ?


If Boris REALLY had balls he would go for a clean break Brexit with the support of Farage. If he REALLY, REALLY had balls he would call a snap election, on that basis, if he were suffer either a no confidence defeat - or some weasely shenanigans from remainers/House of Lords etc.


I don’t see what Corbyn thinks he can gain from his persistent demands for an election. Does he really believe that Labour could win an election....recent by-elections etc suggest otherwise.

Out of some 30m+ votes I would guess a rough breakdown might be Conservatives 12m, Labour 11m, Brexit? 5m, Others 5m  (probably 3-4m Liberal Democrats).

Quite a bit still to play out me thinks.

[puipuitom]

6 hours ago, vogie said:

There will be no debts paid, the UK joined a golf club and the committee changed it to cage fighting without telling us.

One of the members of that committee = British MP, who MUST have agreed. And for sure, he/she did not do that on his.her own, but after discussion with the own government, gov. officials, and even party leaders.

[puipuitom]

6 hours ago, vogie said:

I mean a deal that is fair to the UK and the EU, but personally I think it would be better to leave without a deal and watch the EU sweat.

The people have decided.

You mean.. 51,88% of the British people, while the majority in Scotland and N Ireland are for "Remain". 

"Sweat" is what the British ( or English) will do, when they que up for a Schengen visa, see the lorries queing up at the ports, the empty spaces in the shops and.. the import duty into the EU, making a LOT of the British products out of competition. Result: British.. sweat for your job !

[puipuitom]

6 hours ago, Forethat said:

Don't know if I agree with that approach.

How about if the same approach was implemented on a domestic political level? 

 

"Labour made a majority of the electorate upset, the economy suffered and for that reason they will be allowed to stand in GE for 99 years"

You recognise how devastating that would be for democracy?

We speak about a membership of a 'club of nations", the British clearly show they do not feel attached to their earlier made commitments.

Has nothing to do with a nationwide or local general election.

 

Bye-the-way: in 1945 a German party, even in sole government for 12 years, was banned forever seen malconduct. In Italy even a party who was in government for over 20 years.

[Forethat]

17 minutes ago, puipuitom said:

We speak about a membership of a 'club of nations", the British clearly show they do not feel attached to their earlier made commitments.

Has nothing to do with a nationwide or local general election.

 

Bye-the-way: in 1945 a German party, even in sole government for 12 years, was banned forever seen malconduct. In Italy even a party who was in government for over 20 years.

I would assume a majority of Leave-voters don't oppose the conditions UK agreed and committed to when we joined EEC in 1975. They probably feel very much attached. 

It's the new conditions and the future prospect of a European Federation that a majority of voters don't agree with.

Edited September 2, 2019 by Forethat

[dunroaming]

1 hour ago, Forethat said:

When you say seats are you referring to ministers in a coalition?

Or do you think they are unlikely to get any seats at all in the house?

 

I find it unlikely that as much as 52% who voted leave would opt for an alternative that meant remain. LD got 12 seats last time. Expect Brexit party to get lot more. A LOT.

Well at the moment Johnson is out Brexiting the Brexit Party making it pointless voting for them.  Particularly as many cannot stomach the weasel Farage at all. But there will still be a few who are savvy enough to see through Boris and his constant lying and opt for the BP.

 

It seems obvious now that Johnson will lose and there will be a vote of no confidence.  His smart move then is to kick out the rebels in his party and call a snap election.  With Corbyn on the backfoot it is his best chance of getting re-elected.  One thing is for sure though and that is that this is all about keeping Johnson as PM.  Stuff what is right for the country.

 

Pound dropped again today against the dollar thanks to the escalating uncertainty.

Edited September 2, 2019 by dunroaming

[dunroaming]

1 hour ago, DannyCarlton said:

The GE certainly won't take place pre Brexit or at least not until long after October 31st.

Forgive me just picking this one sentence from your well structured post.  It was this specific point I wanted to comment on.  It is looking very likely that Johnson will call for an election this week with it taking place mid to late October.  In other words before the leave date.  He would do this as he couldn't take the risk of leaving with no-deal and then calling one.  Political suicide.

[candide]

9 hours ago, Forethat said:

Well, you know... there is no UN Parliament that has declared it's intention to take an active role and legislate.

 

So in case you can't differentiate between UN and EU, here's your chance to learn.

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2017/614638/EPRS_BRI(2017)614638_EN.pdf

So where is it written in this briefing document that the EU is preparing laws to criminalize critiscism of immigration, as claimed.

[Nigel Garvie]

29 minutes ago, Jip99 said:

I don’t see what Corbyn thinks he can gain from his persistent demands for an election. Does he really believe that Labour could win an election....recent by-elections etc suggest otherwise.

Out of some 30m+ votes I would guess a rough breakdown might be Conservatives 12m, Labour 11m, Brexit? 5m, Others 5m  (probably 3-4m Liberal Democrats).

Quite a bit still to play out me thinks.

Heavens - a whole series of posts with interesting points to make without any bickering.

 

The reality about Corbyn (Though I think he is basically a decent caring man) is that he is thick as two short planks. Expensive education and one A level.

Polls suggest the LP vote would go up by 5 to 10% with a different leader. The Tabloids have crucified him, but sadly the LP voters who put him in place should have had the bare minimum of common sense to see that he was a sitting duck. 

 

Tony Blair, sad liar that he was, was not stupid. The only LP leader to win 3 elections in 100 years. His warning that a GE is an elephant trap for Labour seems to be wise for me.

I think the general view expressed here that it has got so complicated that predictions are unwise, is very sensible.

[Nigel Garvie]

8 minutes ago, dunroaming said:

Forgive me just picking this one sentence from your well structured post.  It was this specific point I wanted to comment on.  It is looking very likely that Johnson will call for an election this week with it taking place mid to late October.  In other words before the leave date.  He would do this as he couldn't take the risk of leaving with no-deal and then calling one.  Political suicide.

I don't know if I am correct,  but my understanding is that Boris cannot force a midterm election on the UK without 2/3 support.

From Wikipedia

 Under the terms of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011, the period between one general election and the next is fixed at 5 years, unless the House of Commons passes

A motion of no confidence in the Government sooner than that, and does not pass a motion of confidence in a new Government within 14 days, or;

a motion, approved by two-thirds of its members, resolving that a general election should take place sooner,  or;

a proposal from the Prime Minister to reschedule an election mandated by the Act to no later than two months after the original date.

[Forethat]

19 minutes ago, candide said:

So where is it written in this briefing document that the EU is preparing laws to criminalize critiscism of immigration, as claimed.

There is already an EU law in place that criminalises hate speech.

https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=celex:32008F0913

 

The resolution widen's the definition of hate speech. Practically speaking, a change of the law to include a new definition law is halfway to implementation. The resolution has been issued by the Council and the next step would be for the Commission to prepare a proposal. We're not there quite yet, but if that is not the direction one has to wonder what is the purpose of all other political work (as nicely summarised by Mr De Graaf).

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/TA-8-2018-0118_EN.html

 

But as I have pointed out a number of times, it was never my intention to discuss the contents of a new law, my point was that IF a new law is introduced; should Brexiteers be allowed to call on a 'Peoples Vote' as the conditions for a Remain vote have changed? 

Edited September 2, 2019 by Forethat

[dunroaming]

5 minutes ago, Nigel Garvie said:

I don't know if I am correct,  but my understanding is that Boris cannot force a midterm election on the UK without 2/3 support.

From Wikipedia

 Under the terms of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011, the period between one general election and the next is fixed at 5 years, unless the House of Commons passes

A motion of no confidence in the Government sooner than that, and does not pass a motion of confidence in a new Government within 14 days, or;

a motion, approved by two-thirds of its members, resolving that a general election should take place sooner,  or;

a proposal from the Prime Minister to reschedule an election mandated by the Act to no later than two months after the original date.

That is right he would need 2/3 support which in essence means that Labour would have to agree.  That is the point I was trying to make earlier.  The sensible thing for Labour would be to block it but because Corbyn has being banging on about wanting an early election it would be tricky for him to do that.  I think that the gamble is to beat Corbyn in an election before the Brexit deadline. If he does it afterwards and we have left without a deal (very possible given Johnson's current approach) then he would almost certainly lose, by a landslide!

[candide]

59 minutes ago, Forethat said:

There is already an EU law in place that criminalises hate speech.

https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=celex:32008F0913

 

The resolution widen's the definition of hate speech. Practically speaking, a change of the law to include a new definition law is halfway to implementation. The resolution has been issued by the Council and the next step would be for the Commission to prepare a proposal. We're not there quite yet, but if that is not the direction one has to wonder what is the purpose of all other political work (as nicely summarised by Mr De Graaf).

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/TA-8-2018-0118_EN.html

 

But as I have pointed out a number of times, it was never my intention to discuss the contents of a new law, my point was that IF a new law is introduced; should Brexiteers be allowed to call on a 'Peoples Vote' as the conditions for a Remain vote have changed? 

For such a law to pass it would first require an intent to do so by at least a qualified majority of member states, which is not likely. It would also require that the law be passed against the will of the elected UK government, which is also not likely. It would also need to be approved by the ECHR which is even less likely.

[sandyf]

23 hours ago, metempsychotic said:

those who couldnt be bothered to leave the sofa are the most significant if they can be convinced to leave the sofa

With remarks like that it is no wonder the whole thing is such a mess, unsubstantiated assumptions.

Where I used to live, in a general election the parties would lay on transport to take the elderly and infirm to the polling stations, that did not happen for the brexit vote.

If I had not been in the UK at the time my vote would not have been cast, my son being the proxy would not have had the 3 hours spare that day to make the drive to the polling station. Fortunately I did have the time to make the journey by public transport, even though it took most of the day. If registered with a proxy you must use the polling station where you last lived, that can become quite difficult once you have moved.

There are many reasons why people do not make it to the polling station and sitting on the sofa is probably the smallest percentage.

[Loiner]

There are many reasons why people do not make it to the polling station and sitting on the sofa is probably the smallest percentage.

No that’s not the case. Comparatively few have a long trek to a polling station.
Most of those who didn’t vote are so disenfranchised, fed up with politics and politicians, that they simply don’t bother to vote at any time