Thailand's surging baht shatters expat dreams of easy retirement

[DLock]

3 minutes ago, Moo 2 said:

Let us stop blaming the World Economy, this is a blatant Thai Leaders manipulation for their own needs. 

Trying to insult people's intelligence is not very polite way to communicate.

 

 

"All the money I earned through cheating, I lost it by earning it honestly"

 

This seems to be a common theme.

 

But valid question, how is the Thai leaders manipulating the currency for their own needs?

[thaibeachlovers]

On 10/4/2019 at 3:47 PM, ezzra said:

No shattered dreams or fantasies, only shattered reality and disappointments  of almost daily of more bad news and not only from the surging baht but the way the government is treating the foreigners in this kingdom that all they want to do is to be left to live in peace...

Where is it written that foreigners should be able to expect things to stay the same in LOS? Nothing stays the same.

 

If farangs wanted to stay in LOS indefinitely they should have deposited the amount required to extend and not touched it, instead of buying houses, cars and motorbikes, which are not essentials.

[Ajarnbrian]

Exchange rates change over time. Retirement plans should not be based only on what is current. Also, as more foreigners with money move in, higher prices are to be expected. And if you have kept plenty of funds in Thai baht, you have probably done well over the past couple of years. Take a long term view, while being prepared for fluctuations that are sometimes favourable, sometimes not.

[billd766]

17 hours ago, Greenside said:

So just how much buffer does one build into his or her retirement planning calculations to avoid smug comments from keyboard warriors on TV?  Decimated GBP, unaccountably strong baht 50% effective loss of income - tell me who built that much into their calculations and at what point will they begin to hurt?

I did my planning back in 2002 based on my wife and I, 3 pensions and another 7 working years.

 

In 2004 the 2 became 3 and al 3 of us are happy with that.

 

I defy ANY smug holier than thou poster, to predict even a year ahead.

 

In 2002 nobody foresaw the problems of 2005, the crash of 2008 or Brexit in 2016.

 

Back in 2002 nobody foresaw the coup in 2007 or the coup of 2014 and the strength of the baht today.

 

Log into this KBank website historical forex rates and set the dates wherever you want.

 

I chose 2002 which is when I did my planning.

 

Min             Max              Average    Standard deviation    Historic volatility
61.216286    69.478709    64.538965    2.513080                 8.9588
 

[Percy P]

On ‎10‎/‎4‎/‎2019 at 9:46 AM, Dmaxdan said:

In fairness, from the point of view of British expats, the strong baht is only the tip of the iceberg. Brexit and our idiotic government are the main villains with regards to current exchange rates.

Government do not have direct control of exchange rates.  They have direct control of the economy which in turn has a significant  value of the countries wealth . In relation to the Thai Baht being strong its other countries currency  which don't  come up to the value of the Baht. Thai's foreign currency account is in good stead and could pay for all it foreign debt. The more tourists the more foreign currency on the cheap.

[Percy P]

On ‎10‎/‎4‎/‎2019 at 9:47 AM, ezzra said:

No shattered dreams or fantasies, only shattered reality and disappointments  of almost daily of more bad news and not only from the surging baht but the way the government is treating the foreigners in this kingdom that all they want to do is to be left to live in peace...

Correct.

[Mac98]

On 10/3/2019 at 9:24 PM, Robert Tyrrell said:

Hello ,

 

I’ve seen many make the statement which is so true , If you retired in Thailand with income right on the borderline of the financial requirements, Then it is what it is there’s fluctuations everywhere in the World.

You are either prepared or not !!

 

As for Thousands of Expats leaving as well as heading to Vietnam and Cambodia, Just a lot of over hype and <deleted> period !!

The other thing is everyone or most everyone wants to retire in the most expensive and Tourist Trap locations in Thailand  Pattaya, Phuket etc...

There are MANY !! Nice and affordable locations in Thailand ELSEWHERE!! COMMON SENSE PEOPLE COMMON SENSE !! 

Of course there are affordable places to live in Thailand. But that doesn't help you meet income requirements. Tell them you can live on 5,000 a month. They don't care. They want to see the 65,000 or the 800,000. And I have a 1-bdrm, 2-ba ocean view condo with pool for 8250b a month. I don't have to buy or maintain a car/truck, buy petrol at 2500b a fill-up, and have no need for car insurance. Would I really do that much better out in the sticks?

[billd766]

17 hours ago, Acharn said:

I've wondered that for many years. It first started getting full around 2003, if I remember correctly. The year they changed the Immigration at Soi Suan Phlu so different customers were "served" at different windows. You submitted your paperwork to check you had everything and paid your fee. Then you went to wait for several hours for an officer to approve or disapprove your request. Before that you just sent up to the office on the third floor (American style of counting) and you might have to wait half an hour to process everything. I'm pretty sure Parkinson's Law is partly to blame (C. Northcote Parkinson explained the growth of bureaucracy, essential education for any citizen. His Law is true in every country and every culture).

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parkinson's_law

 

The first-referenced meaning of the law has dominated, and sprouted several corollaries, the best known being the Stock–Sanford corollary to Parkinson's law:

If you wait until the last minute, it only takes a minute to do.[5]

[Mike Teavee]

20 hours ago, MadMuhammad said:

If you look at historical charts and had your eyes open you’d realise the 70-90thb ‘value’ was never going to hold. You’re actually very lucky it lasted as long as it did IMO. 

As I stated earlier I see fair value of the Pound around the 45thb mark. It’s only 12% off of the historical average today 

I always mess up with percentages, but I make 37 approx 82% of 45 so an approx 18% drop which is not insignificant.

 

Did you mean it's "Only" 12 THB off it's historical average?

 

[MartinKal]

On 10/4/2019 at 10:59 AM, chickenslegs said:

 

The figures given are of visas issued in each year.

 

The people in the immigration office are not getting visas, they are getting extensions of stay based upon visas issued in previous years.

Good point in theory but maybe this journalist was not aware of the distinction.

Where is the source data?

[billd766]

17 hours ago, Carolina Reaper said:

Ahhh, ok. What a difference 19 years makes. Now, as an older fart, I have less income, lousier exchange rate, less buying power (in any currency), and less hair.

Me too.  ????  ????

[DLock]

2 hours ago, moto77 said:

I was hoping he was joking. As a joke it was hilarious. As a serious comment... well still hilarious, but for a completely different reason. ????

Humor me.

 

Explain as if I was a 5 year old how the Thai Leaders manipulating the currency for their own gain?

[MartinKal]

1 hour ago, Percy P said:

Correct.

The baht is so strong because International investors are parking their money in a currency which they consider to be stable and rising at least in the medium medium-term.

Plus the interest rate is relatively good for an effect with so little risk. Just look at Europe where rates in Germany are negative.

If you had a few million dollars to play with and no particular ideas at the moment, where would you place your stash?

 

 

[owl sees all]

9 minutes ago, MartinKal said:

The baht is so strong because International investors are parking their money in a currency which they consider to be stable and rising at least in the medium medium-term.

Plus the interest rate is relatively good for an effect with so little risk. Just look at Europe where rates in Germany are negative.

If you had a few million dollars to play with and no particular ideas at the moment, where would you place your stash?

 

 

Precious metals and bitcoin.

[MartinKal]

1 hour ago, Percy P said:

Government do not have direct control of exchange rates.  They have direct control of the economy which in turn has a significant  value of the countries wealth . In relation to the Thai Baht being strong its other countries currency  which don't  come up to the value of the Baht. Thai's foreign currency account is in good stead and could pay for all it foreign debt. The more tourists the more foreign currency on the cheap.

VALUE OF TOURISM

 

Thai GDP is 500 billion USD.

Non-domestic tourism is 12% of the Thai economy (my guesstimate).

So foreign overnight stays are worth 50 billion.

That ties in with numbers of tourists. Say 25,000,000 makes a spend of 2,000 USD per capita, on average. About right?

 

VALUE OF EX-PAT RESIDENTS

 

Capital account.

 

80,000 visas. Say 160,000 extensions...about right?

If so, that's 240,000 annuals of which (just guessing) 2/3rds are on 800,000฿ bank deposit.

Makes 4 billion USD treasure (160,000 * 800,000). Foreign reserves are ? 270 billion USD.

 

Revenue.

 

How much is average annual expat expenses spend? 40,000 monthly? 320,000 * 40,000 gives 13 billion or 2.5% of GDP.

[MadMuhammad]

34 minutes ago, Mike Teavee said:

I always mess up with percentages, but I make 37 approx 82% of 45 so an approx 18% drop which is not insignificant.

 

Did you mean it's "Only" 12 THB off it's historical average?

 

I’m happy to use the excuse provided 555

 

I’ll run with your calculations as I am most definitely not skilled with percentages obviously lol

Thank you for the correction, appreciated 

[Matzzon]

20 hours ago, RedPill said:

Life happens ... and one point in time, life will get to you, too.

I actally like this comment very much.it shows real lack of planning and the possibility of the human mind to not be able to choose the right options.

Just to show you, I will split it up:

Life happens - Who told you that? Did you realize that all by yourself? My guess is that you took it out of the blue and not have a clue about it yet.

At one point in time - Shows the unsecure mind about what going to happen and when. Truly spoken from a person that lacks the ability to safely plan and secure something for a later stage in life.

 

Life will get you too - Yeah, life gets everybody. Usually when you´re young and can make the right choices. When put together with the other parts of the sentence above, then it just shows that you been there and never made a solid plan. After that you believe that all people fall into the same pits, and same things happens to everybody. It only happens to people that not make a solid plan for life.

[billd766]

1 hour ago, billd766 said:

I did my planning back in 2002 based on my wife and I, 3 pensions and another 7 working years.

 

In 2004 the 2 became 3 and al 3 of us are happy with that.

 

I defy ANY smug holier than thou poster, to predict even a year ahead.

 

In 2002 nobody foresaw the problems of 2005, the crash of 2008 or Brexit in 2016.

 

Back in 2002 nobody foresaw the coup in 2007 or the coup of 2014 and the strength of the baht today.

 

Log into this KBank website historical forex rates and set the dates wherever you want.

 

I chose 2002 which is when I did my planning.

 

Min             Max              Average    Standard deviation    Historic volatility
61.216286    69.478709    64.538965    2.513080                 8.9588
 

Sorry I forgot to add the link.

 

https://fxtop.com/en/historical-exchange-rates.php?A=1&C1=GBP&C2=THB&DD1=01&MM1=01&YYYY1=2002&B=1&P=&I=1&DD2=31&MM2=12&YYYY2=2002&btnOK=Go!

[Mike Teavee]

4 minutes ago, MadMuhammad said:

I’m happy to use the excuse provided 555

 

I’ll run with your calculations as I am most definitely not skilled with percentages obviously lol

Thank you for the correction, appreciated 

Lol, I wouldn't go off my maths, I said that 45 to 37 was a 12 THB drop ???? 

 

I do agree with your 45 average though, when I 1st did my retirement planning (around 2008) it was around 55:1, so I used 50:1 then decided 45:1 was more prudent (was still recovering from my dividend income being decimated by the GFC) 

 

Nowadays I have a spreadsheet where every Monday I put in the current mid-rates and assume:

• -2THB for GBP£
• -1 THB for SGD$
• 4.2% annual inflation
• Ignore approx £750 a month in passive income (I take this as Scrip/DRIP dividends so don't see the cash)

... And still feel like I should be planning a worse case budget on top of this!

 

[Thaifriends]

Many people are struggling here and those are not Brits only but since 1 year mainly they are complaining on this forum.

 

One can see the Brexit circus ????

[sambum]

19 hours ago, Samuel Smith said:

Don't call me shurely ????

 

 

You "Shtarted it!" :????

[Thaifriends]

8 minutes ago, sanemax said:

Are you not feeling too well ?

Next year is only 8 weeks away .

I do hope that you (and I) both live to see it . 

Get well soon 

 

I am good and hope that you come out of superiority complex. 

 

Total 56 (not ???? weeks to see GBP status. No wonder Brit schools are hiring Chinese teachers to teach them maths ????

 

One can go to school at any age. ????

 

[sambum]

21 hours ago, emptypockets said:

Who was silly enough to consider moving to a South East Asian country with only a pension to support them?

Because a few years ago - "with only a pension to support them" Thailand in particular was a far cheaper place to live than their home countries.

 

Another "nail in the coffin" for UK retirees here is the fact that their annual pension increments are "frozen" (whereas in the Philippines they are not. In the USA they are not, but in Canada they are! Something to do with "reciprocal agreements"  - doesn't stop the UK from providing Thailand with aid, though!) 

 

"Top British diplomat offers aid to Thailand

PUBLISHED : 10 FEB 2018 AT 07:19"

[Mitkof Island]

On 10/3/2019 at 7:56 PM, sungod said:

I lost all interest when I started reading quotes from Niels Colov, it lost credibility at this point,  thousands leaving? Don't know of any personally.

The baht was 28 to USD about ten years ago and stayed low for over a year. Yea its bad and the Thai government could fix the problem over night if it wanted to. Having said that like the TM 30 & 28, much of this is over blown BS !

[englishoak]

Once upon a time I had a life in Thailand all planned out, then the craziness in mid 2000s began and after a while thought it time to leave and get the kid a decent education. Was hesitant but turned out the family absolutely love it in the UK and arnt the slightest bit interested in going back other than for holidays... never saw that coming ????    

 

Just as well given the exchange rates and govs xeno behaviour, I dont expect or wish to be retiring in Thailand anymore but feel for good  friends still there, btw if some think making money on property there is going to top the property price climbs in the UK over the past decade or so they are going to be in for a shock. Average house price in UK is over 11m bht now but stuff is now a lot cheaper, better quality and more choice plus corruption is minimal so it balances out well enough I guess. 

 

No one can see the future, all we can do is work to projections then adapt them.  Its entirely possible the global economic system will get flipped on its head at any time, the world is drowning in unpayable debts and QE, cant see private pensions holding up very well in a few decades with perpetual flat returns,  might even see some currencies disappear in favour of digital versions... might see oil at $150 or might see fusion free energy.   Who knows where the next 30 years and tech will take us..literally anything can happen. 

 

Aint life a ride ? 

 

Wherever you are or end up, I wish everyone and family good health and a happy life as long as it lasts. 

[emptypockets]

1 hour ago, MartinKal said:

VALUE OF TOURISM

 

Thai GDP is 500 billion USD.

Non-domestic tourism is 12% of the Thai economy (my guesstimate).

So foreign overnight stays are worth 50 billion.

That ties in with numbers of tourists. Say 25,000,000 makes a spend of 2,000 USD per capita, on average. About right?

 

VALUE OF EX-PAT RESIDENTS

 

Capital account.

 

80,000 visas. Say 160,000 extensions...about right?

If so, that's 240,000 annuals of which (just guessing) 2/3rds are on 800,000฿ bank deposit.

Makes 4 billion USD treasure (160,000 * 800,000). Foreign reserves are ? 270 billion USD.

 

Revenue.

 

How much is average annual expat expenses spend? 40,000 monthly? 320,000 * 40,000 gives 13 billion or 2.5% of GDP.

I suspect there are way less long term residents than 240,000. I wouldn't be surprised if the original post about the number of visas issued was inclusive of new visas AND extensions of stay, even immigration call an extension of stay a visa according to some posters.

Saw some numbers on this forum published by the government a month or three ago and the number of westerners wasn't significant. Maybe 120,000 max including those who are working. Run your numbers again at say 100,000 non working expats and the results should be fairly close.  Might want to multiply your last calculation by 12 to give a yearly figure (40,000 by 12). Not sure where the 320,000 figure came from.

[Accidental Tourist]

After 97 nothing was anymore like in the old days. Just hope this is not coming again....

[emptypockets]

1 hour ago, sambum said:

Because a few years ago - "with only a pension to support them" Thailand in particular was a far cheaper place to live than their home countries.

 

Another "nail in the coffin" for UK retirees here is the fact that their annual pension increments are "frozen" (whereas in the Philippines they are not. In the USA they are not, but in Canada they are! Something to do with "reciprocal agreements"  - doesn't stop the UK from providing Thailand with aid, though!) 

 

"Top British diplomat offers aid to Thailand

PUBLISHED : 10 FEB 2018 AT 07:19"

I agree with what you are saying, but jeez, after a lifetime of work -  all a person has to show for it is a pension? They should really have stayed at home regardless and taken advantage of the other freebies associated with a pension or other social welfare facilities.

Then again if they failed to plan throughout their working life for their golden years its no surprise they are in trouble when things like the exchange rate go belly up. Note that I said throughout their working life, not looking at the previous 2 years of foreign exchange rates and basing a decision purely on that.

Do get me wrong - I planned very little in my younger years as most young people don't when too busy having a good time and raising a family. As my 40's stared me in the face I realised I needed to do something to have a decent quality of life in my later years. So I did something about it. And its paying off.

If the only plan was to get a pension....well there's not much to add.

[wreckingcountry]

Any expat with a lifetime of work and then retiring /investing in Thailand due to a committed relationship was a gamble


Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect

[billd766]

3 hours ago, sanemax said:

No it didnt , thats a lie that has been told so many times, its become a "fact"

You are correct.

 

Min                   Max         Average    Standard deviation    Historic volatility
46.569544    52.354592    50.169026    1.696112                   32.746

 

https://fxtop.com/en/historical-exchange-rates.php?A=1&C1=GBP&C2=THB&DD1=01&MM1=06&YYYY1=2016&B=1&P=&I=1&DD2=31&MM2=06&YYYY2=2016&btnOK=Go!