Thailand's surging baht shatters expat dreams of easy retirement

[JamJar]

8 hours ago, thaibook said:

I was just happening the other day to be looking at some old papers from the early 80s.  Among them were some hotel price lists, in THB and USD.  The exchange rate was USD 1 = THB 20.  So expatriates now gt 50% more for their dollar.

 

It all depends on where you start and the currencies you use.  Obviously if most of your earnings is in one currency and most of your spend in another there will be periods when you benefit more and others when you lose out.  It is simple basic economics.  One needs to adjust tot he world and not always expect the world to adjust to one's desires.

 

 

What on earth are you asserting??!!

 

Of course they are not getting 50% more, when basic items are 400% more expensive.

[Almer]

4 hours ago, billd766 said:

Me too.  ????  ????

You are so lucky, i have no hair????

[GalaxyMan]

44 minutes ago, JamJar said:

 

What on earth are you asserting??!!

 

Of course they are not getting 50% more, when basic items are 400% more expensive.

It seems as though you're being deliberately obtuse. It is very clear that the poster was referring to the exchange rate, not what basket of goods the money would buy. In baht, we are getting approximately 50% more for each USD. As for inflation of goods prices, where has it not gone up the same amount, if not more?

[Mike Teavee]

On 10/4/2019 at 5:59 PM, emptypockets said:

Who was silly enough to consider moving to a South East Asian country with only a pension to support them?

If I'd have done the full 40 years (did 20) at my 1st company, my pension would have been well in excess of £6,500 pm today... I'm 53, it would carry on rising until I could take it at 60, then carry on rising every year after that.

 

Would it be silly of me to consider moving to Thailand with a guaranteed (Indexed linked) monthly income of > 250,000 THB at today's exchange rate?

 

There are also guys (particularly from US) who retire on very good military pensions who am sure have enough for a very comfortable life in SEA.

 

 

However, I 100% agree with you that it would be silly for somebody to consider retiring in Thailand if the only thing they had to rely on was the UK State Pension, especially as this is frozen when they move so is effectively dropping by the rate of inflation every year.
 

 

 

[JamJar]

10 minutes ago, GalaxyMan said:

It seems as though you're being deliberately obtuse. It is very clear that the poster was referring to the exchange rate, not what basket of goods the money would buy. In baht, we are getting approximately 50% more for each USD. As for inflation of goods prices, where has it not gone up the same amount, if not more?

 

Are you continuing his nonsense? How can you discuss exchange rates without discussing relative values?

 

It's like saying that your great grandmother was 66 years old when she died and she is still 66 years old and therefore younger than your mother.

 

If doesn't make any sense in the real world.

[emptypockets]

1 hour ago, Liverpudlian said:

As for me and a few who read my last post will rais a glass me thinks ... i'm out of here early UK spring and going of grid down somerset ... done the research inside out and will be hunting down a buxome whench to wassail with, oh yesssss ????  

Early spring...March April?

So we have another six months or so of boring, Thai bashing posts from someone who is leaving to look forward to.

Followed by a lifetime of further posts saying how good it is to be back home.

 

Why do people feel the need to announce their intended departure?

Did they announce their arrival?

Don't know why they do it, since nobody cares.

[ICELANDMAN]

28 minutes ago, emptypockets said:

Early spring...March April?

So we have another six months or so of boring, Thai bashing posts from someone who is leaving to look forward to.

Followed by a lifetime of further posts saying how good it is to be back home.

 

Why do people feel the need to announce their intended departure?

Did they announce their arrival?

Don't know why they do it, since nobody cares.

Perhaps because they are not sure they have made the good choice now the winter came soon.

 

[metisdead]

Off topic posts and replies about Brexit and the EU have been removed. 

 

Inflammatory posts and the replies have been removed. 

[moto77]

6 hours ago, DLock said:

Humor me.

 

Explain as if I was a 5 year old how the Thai Leaders manipulating the currency for their own gain?

I agree with you. I was talking about the guy you responded to.

[wreckingcountry]

Early spring...March April?
So we have another six months or so of boring, Thai bashing posts from someone who is leaving to look forward to.
Followed by a lifetime of further posts saying how good it is to be back home.
 
Why do people feel the need to announce their intended departure?
Did they announce their arrival?
Don't know why they do it, since nobody cares.

Clearly you do because you’re reading and commenting


Sent from my iPhone using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[DLock]

36 minutes ago, moto77 said:

I agree with you. I was talking about the guy you responded to.

 

My apologies...I missed the other response....and obviously misunderstood your post.

 

Forgive me.

[Scot123]

1 hour ago, Mike Teavee said:

If I'd have done the full 40 years (did 20) at my 1st company, my pension would have been well in excess of £6,500 pm today... I'm 53, it would carry on rising until I could take it at 60, then carry on rising every year after that.

 

Would it be silly of me to consider moving to Thailand with a guaranteed (Indexed linked) monthly income of > 250,000 THB at today's exchange rate?

 

There are also guys (particularly from US) who retire on very good military pensions who am sure have enough for a very comfortable life in SEA.

 

 

However, I 100% agree with you that it would be silly for somebody to consider retiring in Thailand if the only thing they had to rely on was the UK State Pension, especially as this is frozen when they move so is effectively dropping by the rate of inflation every year.
 

 

 

Mike. Obviously it is enough money to retire on but there is more to think on than that. There are lots of places to choose to retire in Asia so look around. My family left Thailand recently after 9 years living there. The main reason was immigration rules changing at someone's whim, so uncertainty was the big reason ie what next! Second was financial in as much as yes we had enough money to live very comfortably but our life style was taking a hit. Then 6 police cars turned up at my house in the morning full of police. That was the last straw (reason for this visit was to check my visa status ie not working etc). I know people who live there still on a fraction of what we were spending but they count every satang and not being able to buy what you want or go out when you want is not my idea of the great life. We had a great life for 9 years. My advice to you as was given to me me: 1. Always have an out plan. 2. Never invest anymore than you can walk away from. 3. Don't put all your money into a Thai bank. 4. Keep a low profile and don't show off (ask the duch guy and his wife about that one) and last but not least 5. Always remember Thailand is a 3rd world country. 

[Mike Teavee]

32 minutes ago, Scot123 said:

Mike. Obviously it is enough money to retire on but there is more to think on than that. There are lots of places to choose to retire in Asia so look around. My family left Thailand recently after 9 years living there. The main reason was immigration rules changing at someone's whim, so uncertainty was the big reason ie what next! Second was financial in as much as yes we had enough money to live very comfortably but our life style was taking a hit. Then 6 police cars turned up at my house in the morning full of police. That was the last straw (reason for this visit was to check my visa status ie not working etc). I know people who live there still on a fraction of what we were spending but they count every satang and not being able to buy what you want or go out when you want is not my idea of the great life. We had a great life for 9 years. My advice to you as was given to me me: 1. Always have an out plan. 2. Never invest anymore than you can walk away from. 3. Don't put all your money into a Thai bank. 4. Keep a low profile and don't show off (ask the duch guy and his wife about that one) and last but not least 5. Always remember Thailand is a 3rd world country. 

 

I was answering the guy who said it was "silly" to retire to Thailand with only a pension & wanted to highlight that there are people who through luck & hard work have very good pensions and so can afford to move there on these alone.

 

I completely agree with your post and as somebody who's yet to fully make the move (I work in SG, visit Thailand 3 times every 2 months, have the Visa/Extension, Condo Rental etc...) the immigration points you mention are causing me to have 2nd thoughts, but one thing that draws me to Bangkok is I have more good friends there nowadays than I do in Singapore (all but 1 of my good mates there have moved on) so it feels more like home there to me than Singapore does (even after 12 years). 

 

Plan is to retire in Jan, move all my stuff over to BKK, then go travelling (In-country, In-Region & to Europe/LATAM) to see where I want to settle down.

[GalaxyMan]

44 minutes ago, Scot123 said:

3. Don't put all your money into a Thai bank.

Why is that? I've never heard of Thai banks being a risk in terms of losing deposit accounts.

[rickudon]

5 hours ago, emptypockets said:

I suspect there are way less long term residents than 240,000. I wouldn't be surprised if the original post about the number of visas issued was inclusive of new visas AND extensions of stay, even immigration call an extension of stay a visa according to some posters.

Saw some numbers on this forum published by the government a month or three ago and the number of westerners wasn't significant. Maybe 120,000 max including those who are working. Run your numbers again at say 100,000 non working expats and the results should be fairly close.  Might want to multiply your last calculation by 12 to give a yearly figure (40,000 by 12). Not sure where the 320,000 figure came from.

It is hard getting stats on this, and when you do get a figure, not qualified by any criteria. BUT I have seen figures of 85,000 UK nationals recorded in 2010. UK embassy figures I saw a while back said 89,000 in 2012 and 72,000 in 2018 - again no info on how these figures were reached.

 

Now if we take the figure that UK nationals make up 16% of all visas/extensions, Do some quick maths (72,000 x 100 /16 and you get a figure of 450,000 total expats. This is those on any type of long stay (including working) and includes Japanese, and other Asians (but not ASEAN?) So I think 320,000 seems quite likely.

 

So Back to shattered dreams. Looks like British are already steadily declining. Certainly in my area the numbers of expats (mainly retirees) boomed between 2008 and 2012. Since then, not. Many of those coming then probably got their first taste of Thailand during the years of good exchange rates, and many were made redundant/early retired during the financial crash (like myself). It did mean that I came to Thailand permanently 2 years earlier than intended, so had slightly less than planned (probably like many others). I planned for 50 baht to the pound, and would have comfortably made 65,000 baht a month once the state pension kicked in. Brexit wasn't in the calculations. Quite a few people I know now do not even get 40,000 baht a month NET any more (NET is significant, Embassy letters were gross). My fairly substantial savings have dwindled away due to various capital projects, and my inheritance was gobbled up by my mum's nursing home. So the safety net is getting a bit threadbare. 

 

Not leaving as have a wife and daughter, but I am planning some real belt tightening for post Brexit (I am assuming at least 6 months of 30 baht to the pound). Long term, 30 baht to the pound isn't really sustainable and going home may be a decision to seriously consider. No home in UK, the ex-wife got that …..

[Bugsy777]

11 hours ago, emptypockets said:

Nobody contemplating retirement to Thailand from Australia should be relying on the pension. We have had compulsory superannuation with very generous salary sacrifice options for decades.

Marriage breakups, dumped from the workforce, on Newstart blah blah blah. Do you think that these people have earned the right to retire in Thailand? Do you think they are the only people who have done it hard?

I don't.

By the way I got divorced after 23 years when I was 44. Hooked up shortly after for 10 years and separated again at age 54. Both very expensive financially. I didn't fool myself I was going to take early retirement at 55 - I kept working - still am until I'm ready to retire. Financially I can retire any time, but personally I like to work. In other words I have taken personal responsibility, something of an alien concept to some.

 

I can assure you I come from a very working class family, born with a plastic spoon in my mouth.

You've managed to take my post completely out of context. My post was in reply to a particular post. Your was a rambling diatribe coupled with a typical "I'm so good" pile of rubbish. Mate, you need to go and do an English Reading and comprehension course and when you've successfully completed that, you could try some compassion for others. "Nobody contemplating retirement in Thailand should be relying on the pension". Oh great, words of wisdom. The point that seems to totally escape you is that some pensioners in Australia are starving, literally. They have no bloody choice but to contemplate retiring in Thailand or some other place. Can you get that through your head? Further, not so many years ago, the Australian pension was more than sufficient to retire in Thailand. Now, those retirees who made rational decisons all those years ago, find themselves between a rock and a hard place. With corruption in Australia now rivalling that of Asia, ther are fewer and fewer places for the unfortunate aged to survive. I'm talking 70, 80 year old and older. Wake up to yourself.

[Damrongsak]

16 hours ago, rwill said:

In 2013 the US dollar was at 28 baht.  It still hasn't gone down to that level yet.

From about 1962 through 1980, the rate was about 20.4 to 20.8 Baht to the US Dollar.

[MadMuhammad]

10 hours ago, Mike Teavee said:

Lol, I wouldn't go off my maths, I said that 45 to 37 was a 12 THB drop ???? 

 

I do agree with your 45 average though, when I 1st did my retirement planning (around 2008) it was around 55:1, so I used 50:1 then decided 45:1 was more prudent (was still recovering from my dividend income being decimated by the GFC) 

 

Nowadays I have a spreadsheet where every Monday I put in the current mid-rates and assume:

• -2THB for GBP£
• -1 THB for SGD$
• 4.2% annual inflation
• Ignore approx £750 a month in passive income (I take this as Scrip/DRIP dividends so don't see the cash)

... And still feel like I should be planning a worse case budget on top of this!

 

I’ve calculated my worst case scenario many a time and I put aside half an hour ago once a week to input the current data  to continually correct my forecast. 

I’m certain that I have done all that can be reasonably expected with the knowledge I have and I feel I’m prepared for just about anything, even that one off ‘crash of a lifetime’. 

 

Good luck to both if us, our successes or failures will most certainly not be due to the lack of planning 

[wisperone]

10 hours ago, sambum said:

  On 10/4/2019 at 5:59 AM, emptypockets said:

Who was silly enough to consider moving to a South East Asian country with only a pension to support them?

I see youtube video's all the time that one can live comfortably here on $500USD/mth. It has to be true...right?, it's on youtube.

[wisperone]

6 hours ago, Mike Teavee said:

There are also guys (particularly from US) who retire on very good military pensions who am sure have enough for a very comfortable life in SEA.

Definitely....especially if they have Tricare health care insurance.

[NeoDinosaw]

On 10/4/2019 at 6:27 AM, happy chappie said:

I moved all of my savings over by brexit result and invested in property even though there were many saying just rent.

ive lived in the house for nearly 4 years and I'm in negotiations to sell.if it sells I'll transfer the majority of it back to the uk and will of made 2 million

 

 

Are you sure you can move that money back ?    Did you register the money was for buying property when you came ?  Do you think you can send more money back than you came with ?

[NeoDinosaw]

18 hours ago, moto77 said:

Yeah, I have a condo in downtown St Petersburg.
There's nowhere else in the US I'd live. Cali is nice, but the taxes are pretty high. New England is too cold. The rest of the place is an ignorant backwater populated by hillbillies and religious nuts. 

you's livin' in Russia ?

[happy chappie]

2 hours ago, NeoDinosaw said:

Are you sure you can move that money back ?    Did you register the money was for buying property when you came ?  Do you think you can send more money back than you came with ?

I do have proof of most of it but I should of mentioned I would deposit it in a Stirling account here.each time I go to the uk I would physically move $20,000.funny that,I transferred funds here through a fx account but they won't let me transfer back.

as we say here in issan.how to make a small fortune in Thailand....bring a big one.

[Mike Teavee]

5 hours ago, MadMuhammad said:

I’ve calculated my worst case scenario many a time and I put aside half an hour ago once a week to input the current data  to continually correct my forecast. 

I’m certain that I have done all that can be reasonably expected with the knowledge I have and I feel I’m prepared for just about anything, even that one off ‘crash of a lifetime’. 

 

Good luck to both if us, our successes or failures will most certainly not be due to the lack of planning 

Same here, I constantly take in data & adjust my plans, it's not like I'm obsessive, more I like to know what's going on in the world & (if it does) how it impacts me & my family.

  

I'm sure you have already, but if not recommend "Black Swan", not his (Nicholas Taleb's) best work (Fooled by Randomness is one of my favourite reads) but on the same page 

 

At the end of the day we can only plan for the worse & hope for the best ????

 

 

If you don't mind, can I ask when your planned retirement date is (FWIW Mine is Jan next year, 53 so still tempted to do 2 more years having been through a couple of "Black Swans")

[metisdead]

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[LazySlipper]

13 hours ago, emptypockets said:

Why do people feel the need to announce their intended departure?

Did they announce their arrival?

Don't know why they do it, since nobody cares.

 

Well put.

My theory is the "show me yours and I'll show you mine" cliche. They are simply bluffing in an attempt to bash Thailand and they prolly never have any intent of leaving in the first place. Bunch of WASERS (<deleted>-losers combined...) in my opinion. 

[Mike Teavee]

8 hours ago, LazySlipper said:

 

Well put.

My theory is the "show me yours and I'll show you mine" cliche. They are simply bluffing in an attempt to bash Thailand and they prolly never have any intent of leaving in the first place. Bunch of WASERS (<deleted>-losers combined...) in my opinion. 

In fairness a large number of people haven't "announced" their departure but have commentated from afar when these kind of topics come up and have shared details about why they left

 

I can only think of one other time a (>10,000 post) BM "Announced" his departure and he was met with "Don't let the door hit you on the a55 on the way out" type comments, but more comments from guys wishing him luck & asking if he can share his experience from the "Other Side".

 

At the end of the day there are only 2 reasons for leaving... 

1. Because it's better for you or your family (New job, Kids in school etc...)
2. Because you have to 

I wish both camps all the best of luck, no need to add to their hassles by giving them a hard time for posting about it. 

 

Typing this from my parents lounge in (reasonably) sunny Warrington (UK), thinking that in a few short days (Thursday) I'll be flying back to Bangkok, then a week or so later heading back to Singapore & can honestly say that much as I miss Thailand/Singapore, if for some reason I wasn't able to travel back again i would be quite (very) happy to live here.

 

[sambum]

On 10/5/2019 at 4:01 PM, emptypockets said:

I agree with what you are saying, but jeez, after a lifetime of work -  all a person has to show for it is a pension? They should really have stayed at home regardless and taken advantage of the other freebies associated with a pension or other social welfare facilities.

Then again if they failed to plan throughout their working life for their golden years its no surprise they are in trouble when things like the exchange rate go belly up. Note that I said throughout their working life, not looking at the previous 2 years of foreign exchange rates and basing a decision purely on that.

Do get me wrong - I planned very little in my younger years as most young people don't when too busy having a good time and raising a family. As my 40's stared me in the face I realised I needed to do something to have a decent quality of life in my later years. So I did something about it. And its paying off.

If the only plan was to get a pension....well there's not much to add.

'"Do get me wrong"?  "after a lifetime of work -  all a person has to show for it is a pension?"

Actually for many thousands of people that is exactly what they are left with!

 

Everybody is not as fortunate as yourself and not everybody was in a position in their 40's to start planning for the future. Some of us were still supporting families and paying a mortgage until well into their 50's, and in my case, on a single (not very large) salary. But I did my best by my daughter - helped put her through University (although legally in my country my legal obligations ceased when she attained the age of 16) and managed to pay a mortgage, but after that there was not much left for "planning for the future" - in fact not even enough for decent holidays, so now in my "Golden Years" I feel that I'm due a bit of R&R so don't tell me I "should have stayed at home", which by the way is not my home anymore. 

[StevieAus]

On 10/4/2019 at 9:46 AM, Dmaxdan said:

In fairness, from the point of view of British expats, the strong baht is only the tip of the iceberg. Brexit and our idiotic government are the main villains with regards to current exchange rates.

So for Aussie Expats we don’t have Brexit so must be our idiotic government  also as a villain regarding our exchange rate would be happy with the UK rate!!!

[Mike Teavee]

2 hours ago, StevieAus said:

So for Aussie Expats we don’t have Brexit so must be our idiotic government  also as a villain regarding our exchange rate would be happy with the UK rate!!!

Seriously?

 

You don't know that the decreased demand in China (made worse by trade tariffs but was in effect well before then) has led to a decrease on Aus mining exports and so had a knock on effect on the AUS$

 

 

I have no interest in any of the above (Aus exports, Aus$, China etc...) & I know that, so how ill informed do you (presumably somebody who does have an interest) need to be to not know that?