Brexit on a knife edge as PM Johnson stakes all on 'Super Saturday' vote

[snoop1130]

Brexit on a knife edge as PM Johnson stakes all on 'Super Saturday' vote

By Guy Faulconbridge, Kate Holton

 

Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson leaves the European Council after the Brexit-dominated European Union leaders summit in Brussels, Belgium October 18, 2019. REUTERS/Francois Lenoir

 

LONDON (Reuters) - Britain’s exit from the European Union hung on a knife-edge on Friday as Prime Minister Boris Johnson scrambled to persuade doubters to rally behind his last-minute European Union divorce deal in an extraordinary vote in parliament.

 

In one of the most striking flourishes of the three-year Brexit drama, Johnson confounded his opponents on Thursday by clinching a new deal with the EU, even though the bloc had promised it would never reopen a treaty it agreed last year.

 

Yet Johnson, the face of the Brexit campaign in the 2016 referendum, must now ratify the deal in the British parliament where he has no majority and opponents are plotting maximum political damage ahead of an imminent election.

 

The numbers are too close to call: Johnson must garner 318 votes in the 650-seat parliament to get a deal approved. Yet his Northern Irish allies are opposed to a deal and the three main opposition parties have pledged to vote it down.

 

“We’ve got a great new deal that takes back control — now parliament should get Brexit done on Saturday,” Johnson said ahead of the first Saturday sitting of parliament since the 1982 Argentine invasion of the Falkland Islands.

 

If he wins the vote, Johnson will go down in history as the leader who delivered Brexit - for good or bad. If he fails, Johnson will face the humiliation of Brexit unraveling after repeatedly promising that he would get it done.

 

Goldman Sachs said it thought the deal would pass and raised its estimate of Brexit with a deal on Oct. 31 to 65% from 60%. It cut its odds on a no-deal departure to 10% from 15% and kept unchanged its 25% probability of no Brexit.

 

The pound held at five-month highs of $1.2874 against the dollar, down from Thursday's peak of $1.2988 GBP=D3.

 

Johnson won the top job by staking his career on getting Brexit done by the latest deadline of Oct. 31 after his predecessor, Theresa May, was forced to delay the departure date. Parliament rejected her deal three times, by margins of between 58 and 230 votes.

 

Downing Street is casting the Saturday vote as a last chance to get Brexit done with lawmakers facing the option of either approving the deal or propelling the United Kingdom to a disorderly no-deal exit that could divide the West, hurt global growth and trigger violence in Northern Ireland.

 

‘PRETTY CLOSE’

 

To win the vote, Johnson must persuade enough Brexit-supporting rebels in both his own Conservative Party and the opposition Labour Party to back his deal.

 

Concerned about the potential impact of a no-deal departure, Johnson’s opponents have already passed a law demanding he delay Brexit unless he gets a withdrawal deal approved by Saturday.

 

The government has said both that it will comply with this law and that Britain will leave the EU on Oct. 31 whatever happens. Johnson has not explained how he plans to take these two apparently contradictory steps.

 

The message from Johnson’s advisers is: “New deal or no deal but no delay.”

 

As lawmakers mull one of the United Kingdom’s most significant geopolitical moves since World War Two, hundreds of thousands of demonstrators are due to march towards parliament demanding another referendum on EU membership.

 

Parliament will sit from 0830 GMT on Saturday. Johnson will make a statement to lawmakers, after which there will be a 90-minute debate and then a vote.

 

NORTHERN IRISH OPPOSITION

 

The Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) said it would oppose the deal and lobby a faction of around 28 hardline Brexit supporters in the Conservative Party to do the same.

 

“We will be encouraging (other lawmakers to vote against) because we believe it does have an impact on the unity of the United Kingdom, will spark further nationalist sentiment in Scotland and will be detrimental to the economy of Northern Ireland,” the DUP’s Sammy Wilson said.

 

 

“Voting this down tomorrow is not the end of the game, in fact it probably opens up possibilities for the government which are not available at present after a general election.”

 

Without the DUP’s 10 votes, Johnson will need Brexit-supporting Labour Party rebels to support his deal.

 

Saturday’s vote will be “pretty close” but likely just fall short of approval, said John McDonnell, the second most powerful person in the Labour Party.

 

“I don’t believe it will pass, I think it will be defeated but... the numbers are going to be pretty close,” McDonnell told Sky News.

 

If the vote is a tie, then the speaker of parliament, John Bercow, would hold the deciding vote. According to vague convention, the speaker would seek to keep the issue open for further discussion.

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2019-10-18

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[melvinmelvin]

will lawmakers be happy spoiling the weekend?

 

what do they bookies say?

UK in EU or not on 1st Nov?

 

 

[nauseus]

pending

[kingdong]

Boris must be expecting his deal to not get through so he can bring his cunning plan he,s got up his sleeve into play.

[el torro]

MPs have been desperately looking for a 'deal' that they can approve - without incurring the wrath of the electorate, for a long time.

 

I'd be very suprised if they didn't agree this 'deal'.

Edited October 18, 2019 by el torro

[Orton Rd]

Looks like the remainers will be crying by Sunday

[david555]

2 more E.U. leaders who doubt about  extension besides Juncker ….. seems a growing tendency amongst E.U. leaders ....

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/oct/18/boris-johnson-launches-frantic-sales-pitch-of-brexit-deal-ahead-of-commons-vote-politics-live

22m ago 15:09
Macron says he does not think EU will grant further Brexit extension
Emmanuel Macron, the French president, has said he does not want to grant another Brexit extension. Speaking at a press conference at the end of the EU summit, he said: 
So that we can turn to the future I believe that we shall stick to the deadline of October 31.
That being said, I’m not trying to read the future but I do not think we shall grant any further delay. 
Like I said, there shall be no delay unless there are some major changes.

 

11m ago 15:19
Varakdar says MPs should not assume EU27 would inevitably agree to Brexit extension
And Leo Varadkar, the Irish taoiseach (prime minister), has also said that MPs at Westminster should not assume that the EU27 would inevitably agree to a Brexit extension. Speaking at his post-summit press conference, he said:
 

Edited October 18, 2019 by david555

[evadgib]

I found a long & detailed explanation on #Failscontroltest .

[yodsak]

15 hours ago, melvinmelvin said:

what do they bookies say?

UK in EU or not on 1st Nov?

 

Edited October 19, 2019 by yodsak

[OneMoreFarang]

[OneMoreFarang]

It's up to the UK citizens if they want that deal or not. 

 

One of the things which I find most disturbing is that the UK government is not willing to publish an impact assessment before parliament votes.

Shouldn't politicians be allowed to know the details for such important decision?

So why did Boris wait so long? It sees he wants to hide details and he wants to put everybody under pressure.

Nobody should make a decision like that under pressure and with limited information!

It's time that they get rid of Boris who is responsible for all this.

[sandyf]

16 minutes ago, OneMoreFarang said:

It's up to the UK citizens if they want that deal or not. 

 

One of the things which I find most disturbing is that the UK government is not willing to publish an impact assessment before parliament votes.

Shouldn't politicians be allowed to know the details for such important decision?

So why did Boris wait so long? It sees he wants to hide details and he wants to put everybody under pressure.

Nobody should make a decision like that under pressure and with limited information!

It's time that they get rid of Boris who is responsible for all this.

Been the strategy all along, depriving parliament of time and information.

[Sticky Wicket]

15 hours ago, melvinmelvin said:

will lawmakers be happy spoiling the weekend?

 

what do they bookies say?

UK in EU or not on 1st Nov?

 

 

2/1 we leave by the 31st, 4/5 on that the vote passes today!

[damascase]

Cartoonists all over Europe continue to be ‘inspired’ by BJ and Brexit. They will be sad when this is over and done, surely.

The Dutch De Volkskrant, today, brings Jos Collignon’s view:

[yodsak]

[TopDeadSenter]

8 minutes ago, damascase said:

Cartoonists all over Europe continue to be ‘inspired’ by BJ and Brexit. They will be sad when this is over and done, surely.

The Dutch De Volkskrant, today, brings Jos Collignon’s view:

Not funny at all, it's just sour grapes. When the UK finally gets free of the EU, the EU will be left with a gaping hole in their finances. The UK was a very rare thing, a giver not a taker. To the tune of untold billions of pounds per annum. No wonder the European nations (and their hack cartoonists) have run the gamut of emotions from denial immediately after the Referendum, through fear, loathing, more fear, more loathing. Ending up where we are today. With more fear of Brexit, and more loathing of the winner here, the UK.

[MRToMRT]

1 hour ago, OneMoreFarang said:

 

 

So why did Boris wait so long?

Probably because all the UK opposition parties and media do is attempt to pee on everything and anything. This is where our mistrust of politicians comes from ... we will never know if they are voting for or against on the premise it is a) a good way to end this or b) a bad deal - as they are all self promoting aholes who only care about themselves and their petty intra party combat. Even that nob farage was on the TV this morning spouting that we should not accept a deal and "leave"/end this, but "fight" on.

Edited October 19, 2019 by MRToMRT

[damascase]

23 minutes ago, TopDeadSenter said:

Not funny at all, it's just sour grapes. When the UK finally gets free of the EU, the EU will be left with a gaping hole in their finances. The UK was a very rare thing, a giver not a taker. To the tune of untold billions of pounds per annum. No wonder the European nations (and their hack cartoonists) have run the gamut of emotions from denial immediately after the Referendum, through fear, loathing, more fear, more loathing. Ending up where we are today. With more fear of Brexit, and more loathing of the winner here, the UK.

Not funny? What happened to that British sense of humor? Sour grapes? Gaping holes? UK the winner?? You obviously haven’t got a clue how the general public in the EU looks at the shambles you got yourself in. The UK has become a laughing stock. 

[evadgib]

3 minutes ago, damascase said:

Not funny? What happened to that British sense of humor? Sour grapes? Gaping holes? UK the winner?? You obviously haven’t got a clue how the general public in the EU looks at the shambles you got yourself in. The UK has become a laughing stock. 

It was Parliament that got us into it & who will suffer the consequences at the next election.

[JonnyF]

The treaty is terrible. It’s 95% the same as May’s treaty which was a record defeat.

 

I am surprised people predict it will pass the House of Commons. It pleases nobody except the EU.

 

I am equally disappointed that the likes of Mogg are supporting and promoting it. Hopefully the majority of the ERG and the DUP will reject it out of sight.

 

It seems people are getting worn down and will accept any old <deleted> now. That’s weak. Personally I would accept at least 5 more years of this <deleted>sh0w to get a clean break. Long term it will be worth it and I hope others will not just get beat down by the Machiavellian Parliamentary BS and give up. 
 

It should be an interesting couple of weeks.????????

 

 

[BritManToo]

Just now, JonnyF said:

The treaty is terrible. It’s 95% the same as May’s treaty which was a record defeat.

I am surprised people predict it will pass the House of Commons. It pleases nobody except the EU.

I've lost the will to go on, thinking everyone else is feeling the same, in which case any deal will be passed.

[Mavideol]

18 hours ago, melvinmelvin said:

will lawmakers be happy spoiling the weekend?

 

what do they bookies say?

UK in EU or not on 1st Nov?

 

 

bookies odds until tonight 50/50..... 555

[Mavideol]

2 hours ago, OneMoreFarang said:

One of the things which I find most disturbing is that the UK government is not willing to publish an impact assessment before parliament votes.

that would mean shooting themselves in the foot

[evadgib]

14 hours ago, evadgib said:

I found a long & detailed explanation on #Failscontroltest .

Further explained:

 

[yodsak]

 

 

The Letwin amendment could delay things.

[billd766]

2 hours ago, yodsak said:

Analysts are wrong more often than they are right.

 

If you really want to know the result in advance go here and get the real truth.....

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mystic_Meg

 

Margaret Anne Lake (born 27 July 1942),[1] best known by her stage name Mystic Meg, is an English astrologer, who has regular astrology columns in UK newspapers The Sun,[2] and, until its demise, the News of the World.[3] She now hosts Mystic Meg’s Wheel of Destiny for Sun Bingo.[4] She came to greater public notice when she hosted what became a regular item on the first broadcast of the National Lottery draw in 1994. Her image also appears on various astrology-related books and merchandise.

[yodsak]

One of those analysts is right. And one is wrong. 

What about bookies?

 

[stephenterry]

16 hours ago, Orton Rd said:

Looks like the remainers will be crying by Sunday

While I wouldn't have voted to leave the EU, a settlement, even if it's a compromise is the correct way forward, IMO. Clearly, if it's passed by parliament there's still years ahead where negotiations would continue regarding a trade agreement. The same can be said for a no deal because there is no clean break. 

 

At the very least, people and businesses can get on with living their lives and let the government sort out the mess brexit is causing.

[stephenterry]

26 minutes ago, yodsak said:

One of those analysts is right. And one is wrong. 

What about bookies?

 

What it means is that there is a close call whether the deal would be passed by parliament at some point, but favouring an initial rejection by a few votes.

 

The second odds are that a no deal is unlikely, as parliament could prevent that.

 

[stephenterry]

55 minutes ago, billd766 said:

Analysts are wrong more often than they are right.

 

If you really want to know the result in advance go here and get the real truth.....

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mystic_Meg

 

Margaret Anne Lake (born 27 July 1942),[1] best known by her stage name Mystic Meg, is an English astrologer, who has regular astrology columns in UK newspapers The Sun,[2] and, until its demise, the News of the World.[3] She now hosts Mystic Meg’s Wheel of Destiny for Sun Bingo.[4] She came to greater public notice when she hosted what became a regular item on the first broadcast of the National Lottery draw in 1994. Her image also appears on various astrology-related books and merchandise.

Nostradamus predicted that a third world war would commence in 2019. As a result of the brexit vote?