Baht to further strengthen, expert warns

[bkk6060]

1 hour ago, KenKadz said:

Cambodia retirement looking better!

 

Living at one time in a western country.

Then Thailand.

Then lowering a lifestyle to a 3rd world environment.

Wow.

That sounds good to you?  All seems like a negative decay of a life to me.

What would be next?  Africa?

And, what about the health care and hospitals.  Ever been to a Cambodian hospital?  Go to one and walk around...

Good luck my friend.  All seems very very sad.

Edited October 25, 2019 by bkk6060

[ttrd]

6 hours ago, keith101 said:

As the Thai baht gains more strength exports and tourism will fall even further and dropping the its rate by just 25 basis points will do nothing for the economy .

 

It seems destined for the Aussie dollar to drop below todays rate of 20.6 to into the 19s by next year making it impossible for me at least to continue living here and will probably lead to my divorcing my wife and returning to Aus forever , at least back home a dollar is worth a dollar and wont change .

Well, it's said that a divorce itself in general is far from free of charge and worth to mention that in your case it will be all about THB ...

[Mavideol]

23 minutes ago, Russell17au said:

Yes, that works if you are exporting 100 but Thailand is not exporting 100 now and the number that it is exporting is falling continually and companies involved in the export of their products are closing because their products have become too expensive to buy. So your 100 import and your 100 export is no longer equal as the export figures are dropping quicker than the import figures, thus reducing the surplus and changing it to a deficit. Printing new government bonds will not pull you out of the mess that the high value of the money will cause. Loss of industries is a big thing that you are not even looking at, if the businesses close here in Thailand and open in Vietnam then Thailand will never get those industries back because those businesses will not trust Thailand again. It is the same as what happened with the rice sales, Thailand used to be the number 1 seller in the world for rice but because it withheld the rice several years ago to try and force the world price up it fell flat on its face because it only opened the world market up for many other countries to increase there sales of rice on the world market and now Thailand has dropped to number 8 rice seller in the world. Industries will do the same thing, they will move to countries that will treat them better than Thailand so exports will continually drop and they will never be able to pay back the loans and Thailand will remain in deficit for many years.

.... and in the mean time Baht keeps going up because thai government can't (don't want to) see how things work, ...if exports and tourists slowing twice as fast as before start there for a fix

[Misab]

5 hours ago, Yinn said:

The surplus this year will reach $34 billion, he said. Thai economic growth is expected to expand by 3.5 per cent in the fourth quarter, while growth in the third quarter is estimated at 2.7 per cent.

 

The Thai economy is predicted to expand 2.8 per cent for the full year. 

 

The US-China trade war and Brexit would largely determine the direction of the global economy. Uncertainty about the trade relationship and the Brexit deal has led many central banks to ease policy in order to shore up economies

 

 

Thailand ok. If world slump, we will be ok.

 

 

Don't believe all you read

[cws111]

The opposite will happen, the time to change THB to USD is now.  I don't see the baht strengthening too much from here.

 

 

 

 

[Isaan sailor]

Hot money inflows at Bank or Thailand from bond sales—more important than exports and tourism.  And to Hell with expats.  Yeah, we get that...

[Mavideol]

19 minutes ago, EricTh said:

Blame Trump for weakening the dollar and other major world currencies.

that's also a good point.... I said before Trump was (also) a currency manipulator, keeping dollar low to increase exports but, so far,  it's not working

[Power of life yoga]

7 minutes ago, bkk6060 said:

Living at one time in a western country.

Then Thailand.

Then lowering a lifestyle to a 3rd world environment.

Wow.

That sounds good to you?  All seems like a negative decay of a life to me.

What would be next?  Africa?

And, what about the health care and hospitals.  Ever been to a Cambodian hospital?  Go to one and walk around...

Good luck my friend.  All seems very very sad.

sometimes people have to make the best out of a <deleted>ty situation ????

[IsaanAussie]

Just now, Power of life yoga said:

sometimes people have to make the best out of a <deleted>ty situation ????

Always.

 

[Chongalulu]

5 hours ago, Yinn said:

The surplus this year will reach $34 billion, he said. Thai economic growth is expected to expand by 3.5 per cent in the fourth quarter, while growth in the third quarter is estimated at 2.7 per cent.

 

The Thai economy is predicted to expand 2.8 per cent for the full year. 

 

The US-China trade war and Brexit would largely determine the direction of the global economy. Uncertainty about the trade relationship and the Brexit deal has led many central banks to ease policy in order to shore up economies

 

 

Thailand ok. If world slump, we will be ok.

 

 

"Thailand OK if world slump" . Illusory Thai economic understanding. The growth rate is already declining (worst in ASEAN) from over 4% dropping to 2.8% and forecast even lower. Rice exports down 25% year on year. A country significantly depending on exports to 'slumping world' and tourism with strengthening baht means Thailand will be anything but OK. 

You don’t trade in a vacuum. 

Your first lesson in basic economics comes free . You’re welcome!

[Mavideol]

18 minutes ago, saengd said:

So if/when exports shrink, they can shrink quite some way before it really hurts.

if you have been following TV posts, no long ago the government announce a huge drop on exports, it was published 2-3 times in a row, should be easy to find the posts. High % of manufacturing goods moved it's production out to nearby neighbors, they used to ship car parts to China and that may have dropped or stopped, how much impact that would have (assuming Chinese may have paid in USD thus foreign currency)

[ttrd]

13 minutes ago, Misab said:

Don't believe all you read

Anyway, nothing last forever. If the thb continue to strengthen at one point Thailand will see a huge decrease in tourism and in a income their are totally depending on meaning it will get a negative impact which again will weaken the thb.

 

If the decrease in tourism will be based on a national natural disaster, strong thb or a global recession remain to see, but it will happen sooner or later as so many times before - in cycles ....

Edited October 25, 2019 by ttrd

[IsaanAussie]

Just now, Mavideol said:

if you have been following TV posts, no long ago the government announce a huge drop on exports, it was published 2-3 times in a row, should be easy to find the posts. High % of manufacturing goods moved it's production out to nearby neighbors, they used to ship car parts to China and that may have dropped or stopped, how much impact that would have (assuming Chinese may have paid in USD thus foreign currency)

Global sourcing has been a factor in the auto industry for twenty years. Thai auto part exports are exported by the car companies not the manufacturers. The US tariffs are on the FOB prices not only on the Chinese value added assembly. 

[Russell17au]

3 minutes ago, Mavideol said:

if you have been following TV posts, no long ago the government announce a huge drop on exports, it was published 2-3 times in a row, should be easy to find the posts. High % of manufacturing goods moved it's production out to nearby neighbors, they used to ship car parts to China and that may have dropped or stopped, how much impact that would have (assuming Chinese may have paid in USD thus foreign currency)

The largest Asean car parts manufacturer is closing its Chonburi plant because of falling orders and is considering moving its whole operation to another neighbouring country. more export dollars lost, but some people just do not get it. Exports are falling quicker than imports.

[IsaanAussie]

Just now, Russell17au said:

The largest Asean car parts manufacturer is closing its Chonburi plant because of falling orders and is considering moving its whole operation to another neighbouring country. more export dollars lost, but some people just do not get it. Exports are falling quicker than imports.

Which company is that?

[phantomfiddler]

$34 billion for nocturnal favours, since this is most visitors main expense, no wonder the Thai Baht is shining and will continue to rise ????

[Russell17au]

6 minutes ago, IsaanAussie said:

Which company is that?

Thai Summit Laemchabang Autoparts Co., Ltd. It is part of the Thai Summit Group. The wife told me about it when it was on the news last night

[metisdead]

Some off topic posts and replies about the Australia Pension have been removed. 

 

Other troll posts and replies were removed as well. 

[IsaanAussie]

Just now, Russell17au said:

Thai Summit Laemchabang Autoparts Co., Ltd. It is part of the Thai Summit Group. The wife told me about it when it was on the news last night

Not going to happen. The founder of the future forward party and the minister of industry are members of the owning family. Yes one of their many components companies may be closed for a month or so, but they are not going anywhere,

[Rookiescot]

I believe it is China which is buying all the bonds.

China will sell all the bonds overnight some time and the Thai central bank will need to step in and buy them in a vain attempt to stop the value of the baht crashing. The Chinese will recoup almost all their money while others get stung and the baht crashes anyway.

Chinese companies will then arrive and carpetbag whatever companies it chooses and ultimately Thailand will become a colony/region of China.

South East Asia is China's back yard as far as they are concerned. 

The only one still holding out is Vietnam but they will fall eventually too.   

[kingdong]

6 hours ago, Yinn said:

That at Why is good now we strong, strong baht, strong employment, strong balance.

 

 

Sorry, I not understand that.

Pollution?

 

 

 

anyway. All you guy sad because your money weak.

the baht is strong, not weak, so I am happy.

1997,people have short memories.

[Jano22]

6 hours ago, stigar said:

I choose to stay only 4-6 months a year in thailand.I have pension enough to have a good life there.Anyway i will stay 6-8 months a year in norway.Thailand is expencive for many to live in,even thais complain because everything gets more expencive.

If you tell me that you can live cheaper in Norway, i tell you you are wrong. And i am a Norwegian too.

[30la]

You still haven't understood a damn thing about your monetary policy, the big loser will be Thailand, the export will decrease even more, the tourists won't come for sure in a country where the cost of living is higher than elsewhere!
The winners? All those that can afford to make big money speculations!

[Thian]

10 hours ago, hanuman2543 said:

Have you thought about the rice farmers? There are millions of them and with the high Baht it will become nearly impossible to sell Thai rice to foreign countries,  especially the same rice from Vietnam costs only half abroad. Let's not talk about the manipulated employment numbers. They are in the same category as the numbers of traffic deaths or air pollution. 

I want to buy a high end stereo....i found out it costs half the thai price in singapore....

 

And what about the load of staff in the thai shops? I bought eggs yesterday, the staff was all chinese and 7 of them helped me to buy eggs plus milk...the bill even was 100 baht too high but they corrected it when i told them...

 

Same in Homepro, there's a whole army working there...also in the Watson and shops like that...easy 10+ girls in there to sell cream and toothpaste.

 

If thailand had a strong economie they wouldn't be working there and doing nothing all day long.

[JohnWayene]

6 hours ago, FarFlungFalang said:

You remember asian financial crisis?

And you know the crisis was started due to effective bankrupcy of Thailand. Many people predicted it and handsomely profited. Thailand is in a far better porsition now. In fact, all of Asian countries are in far better porsition. Currency traders are predictng 25BHT/USD by 2024 with all the turmoil of World Trade and slowing down of China's economy. A resolution to World Trade is not going to weaken Baht. 

[Pique Dard]

7 hours ago, marin said:

how are these two different problems connected?

two different problems? how can you support a wife if you are broke?

[JMSIII]

8 hours ago, webfact said:

The surplus this year will reach $34 billion, he said. Thai economic growth is expected to expand by 3.5 per cent in the fourth quarter, while growth in the third quarter is estimated at 2.7 per cent.

Thai economic growth?  Really?  Why are so many Thai's very unhappy with the current money situation for them?

 

8 hours ago, webfact said:

The US-China trade war and Brexit would largely determine the direction of the global economy. Uncertainty about the trade relationship and the Brexit deal has led many central banks to ease policy in order to shore up economies, but their actions would be a temporary solution and could not fully compensate for real economic reforms.

The corrupt Central Bank doing their usual manipulation BS to make themselves wealthier....

[Lacessit]

6 hours ago, Yinn said:

 

 

 

anyway. All you guy sad because your money weak.

the baht is strong, not weak, so I am happy.

You shouldn't be. A strong baht means you can buy tanks and helicopters. It also means what Thailand exports becomes more expensive, so your factories producing food, vehicles and appliances are less competitive in world markets. Your income from tourism falls. While it may suit your leaders to have a strong baht, it's not good for ordinary Thais.

[marqus12]

51 minutes ago, Rookiescot said:

The only one still holding out is Vietnam but they will fall eventually too. 

If ??? the "elites" in the US will start thinking before they become the elites

of the second Brazil, then they will pump money into those countries

that want to be their allies. Just as they pumped in Germany and Japan.

 

Otherwise, goodbye petro dollar,

welcome yuan and the slums of Sao Paulo in San Francisco .

[WillyPlatt]

8 hours ago, keith101 said:

As the Thai baht gains more strength exports and tourism will fall even further and dropping the its rate by just 25 basis points will do nothing for the economy .

 

It seems destined for the Aussie dollar to drop below todays rate of 20.6 to into the 19s by next year making it impossible for me at least to continue living here and will probably lead to my divorcing my wife and returning to Aus forever , at least back home a dollar is worth a dollar and wont change .

An honest man. Hope your missus doesn't have your forum password.

The past couple of years have shown that retaining assets, mainly a property, in your home country is essential for most.

You cannot control anything, political or economical, in a foreign country.

When the tide turns against you, you will be in a world of trouble.