Britain set for 1970s public spending levels as parties woo voters - report

By William Schomberg

 

FILE PHOTO: A copy of 'The NHS Long Term Plan' booklet is seen next to a sign for Alder Hey Children's Hospital in Liverpool, January 7, 2019. Anthony Devlin/Pool via REUTERS

 

LONDON (Reuters) - Britain’s state spending will head back to levels not seen since the 1970s if the two main political parties in the Dec. 12 election make good on their promises, a think-tank said on Monday, warning that taxes will have to rise too.

 

After a decade of tight controls on the budget to fix the damage wrought by the financial crisis, Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s ruling Conservative Party and the opposition Labour Party are both wooing voters with spending plans.

 

“The shared commitments to ending austerity, reversing elements of it, and big infrastructure plans mean Britain could be heading back to a 1970s-sized state,” Matt Whittaker, deputy chief executive at the Resolution Foundation, said in a report.

 

Finance minister Sajid Javid announced in September the biggest funding increases for public services in 15 years, and says he wants to spend more on infrastructure too, echoing the plans of left-wing Labour.

 

“The fact is that whatever promises are made over the course of this election campaign, taxes are going to have to rise over the coming decade,” Whittaker said.

 

Johnson has said he wants to lower taxes as well as raise spending. Labour would increase income tax for the top 5% of earners and raise corporate taxes to help fund its spending plans, the party’s would-be finance minister John McDonnell said on Sunday.

 

Under the Conservatives, Britain has cut its budget deficit from 10% of gross domestic product in 2010 to about 2% now.

 

But the deficit has started to widen again after former prime minister Theresa May began to relax her government’s grip on public pay in 2017 and promised big increases in health spending.

 

Britain’s public debt stands at 1.8 trillion pounds ($2.3 trillion), or 80% of GDP - more than Germany but less than the United States, Japan and France. Analysts have warned it could rise again as a share of the economy, especially with the outcome of Brexit, and its impact on the economy, so unclear.

 

But there has been little sign of nervousness among investors with government borrowing costs close to record lows.

 

The Resolution Foundation, a non-partisan think-tank which focuses on issues facing low to middle-income households, said government spending could rise to 41.3% of GDP by 2023 from about 40% now under the Conservatives’ existing plans for more infrastructure and day-to-day spending.

 

That would be well above the average of 37.4% in the two decades running up to the financial crisis of 2008-09, and only marginally below the average of 42% between 1966 and 1984.

 

Further health spending on Britain’s ageing population would take spending above the 1970s average, the report said.

 

If Labour repeats its 2017 election promise of 48.6 billion pounds ($62.85 billion) of extra spending on services, coupled with its new 10-year 250 billion-pound infrastructure plan, public spending would hit 43.3% of GDP, significantly above the 1970s average, the Resolution Foundation said.

 

However, that would still be smaller than government spending in Germany and France which stood at just over 44% and 56% of GDP respectively in 2017, according to figures from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation Development.

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2019-11-04

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Corbyn has said that a Labour government will abolish all immigration rules. It will be open door, open house.

 

If he does that imagine the influx of Asians from the Indian sub-continent and African economic migrants. 

 

Government spending would explode way beyond the 1970's figures as a result! But heyho Jeremy has pledged to go after the elite tax dodgers. Only probably not his missus of course!

If Corbyn gets in ,the pound will go way down ,so those of us living on pensions better start cutting back .

2 minutes ago, ivor bigun said:

If Corbyn gets in ,the pound will go way down ,so those of us living on pensions better start cutting back .

Further down than even the Tories managed to send it?

32 minutes ago, Baerboxer said:

Corbyn has said that a Labour government will abolish all immigration rules. It will be open door, open house.

 

If he does that imagine the influx of Asians from the Indian sub-continent and African economic migrants. 

 

Government spending would explode way beyond the 1970's figures as a result! But heyho Jeremy has pledged to go after the elite tax dodgers. Only probably not his missus of course!

You’ve made this claim re Corbyn and immigration rules a number of times, can you please provide a link to Corbyn stating this?

29 minutes ago, ivor bigun said:

If Corbyn gets in ,the pound will go way down ,so those of us living on pensions better start cutting back .

More crystal ball stuff.

 

 

2 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

More crystal ball stuff.

 

 

EVERYTHING is "crystal ball stuff", Chomps.  Luckily,  few of us on Thai Visa will live long enough to see our predictions about the future come true (or not).

35 minutes ago, blazes said:

EVERYTHING is "crystal ball stuff", Chomps.  Luckily,  few of us on Thai Visa will live long enough to see our predictions about the future come true (or not).

October 31st being an example.

4 hours ago, Baerboxer said:

Corbyn has said that a Labour government will abolish all immigration rules. It will be open door, open house.

 

If he does that imagine the influx of Asians from the Indian sub-continent and African economic migrants. 

 

Government spending would explode way beyond the 1970's figures as a result! But heyho Jeremy has pledged to go after the elite tax dodgers. Only probably not his missus of course!

Was that before or after the part of the speech where he said he also eats children for breakfast?

No worries, can't see the Jew hater and his mathematician side kick being voted in, even the UK population are not that stupid

56 minutes ago, rhyddid said:

Only one can't be trusted ! BS BJ never said the true ! 31st October Brexit or die, his words, he still not resign !

 

Granted you're Welsh, but any chance you could communicate in English???

19 minutes ago, Orton Rd said:

No worries, can't see the Jew hater and his mathematician side kick being voted in, even the UK population are not that stupid

How very virtue signaling PC of you! 
 

Judging by your posting history you’d have no issue voting for him if he was beating up on one of the other Abrahamic religions instead. 

You can say Islam, it is allowed and I would not vote for him under any circumstances. He is a proven anti semite and supporter of terrorism.

31 minutes ago, Orton Rd said:

You can say Islam, it is allowed and I would not vote for him under any circumstances. He is a proven anti semite and supporter of terrorism.

That he allows that anti Semitic strand to live on I don’t know. Given the dumpster fire that passes for a Tory government, Labour should be miles ahead in the polls. But they are not and Corbyn is the reason for that. 

Both sides will promise massive spending which would involve unparalleled borrowing, but don't worry as neither party would fulfil their pledges.  It's just electioneering folks!

Now I can understand why Tories would change horses and vote for the Brexit Party, Nigel is right that Johnson's deal isn't a proper Brexit, it is just a re-hashed version of May's deal that Boris, JRM and the ERG rejected.  I can see how frustrating that must be for Brexiteers within the party and Farage is right out there when it comes to right wing policies.

 

However I am surprised by so many Labour voters saying they would vote for the right wing Brexit Party.  I guess it shows yet again that people are totally blinkered by Brexit and that is the only issue they are interested in.  Sod the fact that have voted Labour all their lives and so did their fathers before them.

Any promises on up rating expat pensions? thought not ????

43 minutes ago, Orton Rd said:

Any promises on up rating expat pensions? thought not ????

Brexit will keep the pound good and low for some considerable time I am afraid and the chance of the Tories increasing pensions it rather like whistling dixie!

I thought comrade Corbyn mentioned it a while back? probably slipped his mind

7 minutes ago, Orton Rd said:

I thought comrade Corbyn mentioned it a while back? probably slipped his mind

Let’s see what the individual party manifestoes have to say, but I wouldn’t get your hopes up on fair expat pension being in any one’s list of policies.

 

The last person to champion expat pensions was Keith Vaz, not someone right wing expats ever had time for even if he was backing getting them fair pensions.

 

But don’t give up hope, it was a Tory government listened to all those gripes about foreigners going to the UK to sponge off the welfare system, they responded by putting up the income requirements for expats to get a settlement visa for their foreign born spouse.

 

 

9 hours ago, Baerboxer said:

Corbyn has said that a Labour government will abolish all immigration rules. It will be open door, open house.

 

If he does that imagine the influx of Asians from the Indian sub-continent and African economic migrants. 

 

Government spending would explode way beyond the 1970's figures as a result! But heyho Jeremy has pledged to go after the elite tax dodgers. Only probably not his missus of course!

Interesting. Could you please point me to the evidence that Jeremy Corbyn said this. 

 

And what is exactly the problem of an influx of Asians or Africans?

 

Rooster

1 minute ago, Jane Dough said:

Interesting. Could you please point me to the evidence that Jeremy Corbyn said this. 

 

And what is exactly the problem of an influx of Asians or Africans?

 

Rooster

Don’t get your hopes up, I asked already.

 

 

1 hour ago, Orton Rd said:

Any promises on up rating expat pensions? thought not ????

What is an expat pension?

 

Is it different to a government state pension?

 

Why should it go up?

 

Rooster

17 minutes ago, Jane Dough said:

Interesting. Could you please point me to the evidence that Jeremy Corbyn said this. 

 

And what is exactly the problem of an influx of Asians or Africans?

 

Rooster

People who spout complete and utter nonsense like this need to be questioned repeatedly. 

 

They can't be allowed to get away with it.

 

It is actually time that the moderate, sensible people on TVF hit back at the drivel presented as fact.

 

Rooster

17 minutes ago, Jane Dough said:

Interesting. Could you please point me to the evidence that Jeremy Corbyn said this. 

 

And what is exactly the problem of an influx of Asians or Africans?

 

Rooster

Well as the NHS have been having recruitment campaigns in Africa, the Philippines and India for some time now

4 minutes ago, dunroaming said:

Well as the NHS have been having recruitment campaigns in Africa, the Philippines and India for some time now

Indeed. I imagine that the NHS would grind to a complete halt but for people born outside the United Kingdom who keep it going.

 

Rooster

10 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

More crystal ball stuff.

 

 

Not really you,'ve just got to look back at Labour's last term of office where Gordon (they,'ll be no more boom and bust ) Brown who devalued the £ to bail out his banking buddies in the city

There's the answer,easy credit,spend spend spend,then lend lend lend to pay for it,then when it go,es tits  up leave it to the next government to sort out.

2 minutes ago, kingdong said:

There's the answer,easy credit,spend spend spend,then lend lend lend to pay for it,then when it go,es tits  up leave it to the next government to sort out.

QUOTE: There's the answer......

This must be the most intelligent post you ever made - unfortunately.also the only one.

But since you know this answer, please tell us another answer: what is your alternative? Does it maybe start with an A ?

3 minutes ago, oldhippy said:

QUOTE: There's the answer......

This must be the most intelligent post you ever made - unfortunately.also the only one.

But since you know this answer, please tell us another answer: what is your alternative? Does it maybe start with an A ?

You can,t carve clogs with blunt chisels