Thai baht is likely to weaken, central bank deputy governor says

[kingdong]

10 hours ago, CH1961 said:

Even if you changed your pension of 1000 British Pound, the difference is only 700 Baht. 

Stop whining ????

Look after the satongs and the baht looks after itself

[JonnyF]

9 minutes ago, sandyf said:

The baht may well weaken a few percent but as far as the round is concerned it is not going to overcome the 15 or so percent that resulted overnight from the referendum result. Only the delusional would think that actually leaving the EU would reverse that deterioration in our lifetime.

The only hope for the pound is a weakening of the USD.

I don't see why it couldn't rebound. Let's say in 5 years time we've left and signed trade deals with the US and the EU (plus a few others like Australia, Japan etc.) and the economy is ticking along nicely, why couldn't the pound return to over 50?

[sandyf]

21 hours ago, PGSan said:

First, many apologies for introducing a little intellectual rigour(/rigor into this discussion!

 

An economist writes:

 

If, as claimed by some, the value of all currencies (other than the USF itself) is determined purely by its rate against the US dollar, how can we ever know that “the value of USD has changed”?

[As in the following quote:

     ‘if the value of USD were to change”]

 

The USD/USD rate is always exactly 1.00, it never changes.  Thus, by the above argument “the value of the USD” can never change.

 

Or is there a flaw in my reasoning?

Yes there is. The USD is measured by the "Dollar Index - DXY" an indicator of the dollar strength against a basket of currencies.

You will see from the chart there was a sudden strengthening of the dollar in 2014 and since then remained fairly close to the 100 mark.

Over the years fluctuation has been from over 120 down to about 70 at the time of the financial crisis.

[jayceenik]

4 hours ago, ChipButty said:

I've no need to worry I have no money my wife's got it all

Actually my TGF follows eagerly the exchange rate between EUR and THB because the THB I give her come from my EUR pension and bank account.

????

[HOAX]

13 hours ago, CH1961 said:

Even if you changed your pension of 1000 British Pound, the difference is only 700 Baht. 

Stop whining ????

If your pension is only £1000 to begin with then 700 baht is significant. From 39.15 to 39.85 in just a week is a significant move no matter how much you have. If it were to continue to rise at this pace (in a fantasy life) then the pound would be worth 75.55 baht Dec 6 2020. That's nearly a 90% increase in just a year, twice as much as it has decreased over the last 5 years, at least for some currencies. So yes, a 1.8% increase in a week is very significant.

[roobaa01]

euro up from 33.25 to 33.75, kiwi dollar up from 19.25 to 19.75 since last week so something is moving.

 

wbr

roobaa01

[kingofthemountain]

32 minutes ago, roobaa01 said:

euro up from 33.25 to 33.75, kiwi dollar up from 19.25 to 19.75 since last week so something is moving.

 

wbr

roobaa01

Nothing is moving enough in the good way

until you can have again 50 bahts for 1 euro

[shy coconut]

On 12/5/2019 at 4:24 AM, ivor bigun said:

I was just having the car washed and a woman there started chatting ,we got around to the economy ,and she remarked how bad the govt was ,how the baht was overvalued and exports are going down , all ordinary Thais are not dumb

She's probably got a son in law on thaivisa who bangs on about it as much at home

as he does on here.

[HOAX]

1 hour ago, shy coconut said:

She's probably got a son in law on thaivisa who bangs on about it as much at home

as he does on here.

I hear it all the time, she's far from alone, whether its agriculture in Udon Thani, exporting car parts, kitchenware or clothing wholesale in Bangkok or tourism in Phuket and Koh Phangan, business is down big time says all i know. While farmers are the least affected of the ones I've spoken to they too acknowledge its only because of temporary government backing and fake promises as many farmers have been fooled by the gov't plenty of times before. They all worry and already feel the affects from the high value of the THB and the competition from elsewhere in Asia, mainly China and Viet Nam, but now also South America and West Africa.

[metisdead]

Off topic posts and replies about Brexit/Tories have been removed. 

[saengd]

An interesting article on why THB has been so strong for so long:

 

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2019/12/05/for-15-years-two-currencies-have-outperformed-all-others

 

After you've read the article please remember that fifteen years ago on Thaivisa Forum, posters were almost unanimous that THB was way over valued and that it would return to 80 before too long, the banks weren't safe, a housing crash was just around the corner, in fact, pretty much all the same things we still hear today. 

Edited December 6, 2019 by saengd

[kingofthemountain]

3 minutes ago, saengd said:

An interesting article on why THB has been so strong for so long:

 

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2019/12/05/for-15-years-two-currencies-have-outperformed-all-others

So the explaination is a low inflation and a better productivity?

Sorry but i don't think so.

1\ the inflation is not low at all in Thailand

(I am talking about the ''real'' inflation, not the one in the official

taking inside things like the fall of the TV and computers prices)

2\ I don't see where a beeter productivity has been introduced in the last 10 years 

in Thailand (And they don't give any example of it in the link)

[saengd]

11 minutes ago, kingofthemountain said:

So the explaination is a low inflation and a better productivity?

Sorry but i don't think so.

1\ the inflation is not low at all in Thailand

(I am talking about the ''real'' inflation, not the one in the official

taking inside things like the fall of the TV and computers prices)

2\ I don't see where a beeter productivity has been introduced in the last 10 years 

in Thailand (And they don't give any example of it in the link)

Core inflation has increased only quite slowly but for Westerners who buy things outside of the core basket it will have risen much faster.

[kingofthemountain]

17 minutes ago, saengd said:

Core inflation has increased only quite slowly but for Westerners who buy things outside of the core basket it will have risen much faster.

Nope the inflation was quick not only for the things outside of the core

one of the explaination to the increase of the prices is the increase of

the minimum wage in 2013, and last year, and another is coming soon.

Companies do not lower their profits, they reflect the rises in wage on

the price of the prducts, and its create a rapid inflation.

 

''The military backed Palang Pracharath Party and Democrat Party – both part of the ruling coalition now – had promised as much as 40% and 25% minimum wage increase, respectively. Thailand last year boosted the national minimum wage for the first time since 2013 raising the daily range from about 2% to 7% to 208 baht (US$6.8) to 330 baht, respectively.''

 

On the other hand a lot of countries from the euro zone

(Like France) with less than 1% inflation and real gains of productivity in

the last 10 years have seen the money valor fail from 25% or more.

 

It's why i don't think the inflation and the productivity are the explaination

to the strengh of the baht. 

The massive money influx (Black money) and the huge reserve of gold and foreign devises is more credible imo

Edited December 6, 2019 by kingofthemountain

[saengd]

5 hours ago, kingofthemountain said:

Nope the inflation was quick not only for the things outside of the core

one of the explaination to the increase of the prices is the increase of

the minimum wage in 2013, and last year, and another is coming soon.

Companies do not lower their profits, they reflect the rises in wage on

the price of the prducts, and its create a rapid inflation.

 

''The military backed Palang Pracharath Party and Democrat Party – both part of the ruling coalition now – had promised as much as 40% and 25% minimum wage increase, respectively. Thailand last year boosted the national minimum wage for the first time since 2013 raising the daily range from about 2% to 7% to 208 baht (US$6.8) to 330 baht, respectively.''

 

On the other hand a lot of countries from the euro zone

(Like France) with less than 1% inflation and real gains of productivity in

the last 10 years have seen the money valor fail from 25% or more.

 

It's why i don't think the inflation and the productivity are the explaination

to the strengh of the baht. 

The massive money influx (Black money) and the huge reserve of gold and foreign devises is more credible imo

Unless you can actually prove the point and support it by evidence, your view is nothing more than just opinion. Historically and statistically however, inflation in Thailand has been very tame, as the Economist article explained:

https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/inflation-cpi

.

[saengd]

This is how inflation in Thailand is measured:

 

Thai CPI in Thailand is constructed based on the Classification of Individual Consumption According to Purpose (COICOP) of United Nations. The goods and services (total of 417 items) in CPI calculation are weighed differently and arranged into 7 major groups. Major groups and examples of categories in each are as follows:

 

 

1. Food and Beverages - rice, flour, meat, duck, chicken, egg, vegetable, fruit, seasoning, and condiments, etc.

2. Apparel and Footwear - men's shirts, women's dresses, shoes, etc.

3. Housing and Furnishing - shelter, electricity charges, water supply charges, bedroom furniture, etc.

4. Medical and Personal Care - drugs and medical supplies, soap, shampoo, moisturizer, toilet paper, etc.

5. Transportation and Communication - vehicles, gasoline, vehicle insurance, communication equipment etc.

6. Recreation and Educational - toys, sports equipment, books, education admissions, etc.

7. Tobacco and Alcoholic Beverages - tobacco and smoking products, alcoholic beverage

 

A quick scan down the list and I see some things that have hardly changed in years, rent, water and electricity bills. The ten year gasoline price is actually down, the ten year food price trend is down and clothing costs are flat.

 

https://www.managerial-economics-club.com/cpi-in-thailand.html

https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/gasoline-prices

https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/food-inflation

 

[Hans007]

Yesterday at bkk airport....1 euro is 31.1 bath ...!!!! Why????

 

Average rates are infact 33.5...!!!

 

Today in hua hin...not much better..31.2

 

Thieves!!!

 

Hans