LivinLOS Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 15 hours ago, Angry Dragon said: erm depending on the flu season, the range is all over the place (but I will grant you that it is never near 3%). as for the 3% figure being thrown about, you're seeing that drop as the days go by (more infections but fewer deaths). see you here next week when I'm sure this thread will be alive and well - not The Lancent has published a paper with a studied death rate of 11% from the first cohort. The 2 - 3 % is 1) chinese publishing and 2) without factoring in the delay time between onset of symptoms and mortality.. Another way of looking at is there are, according to the johns hopkins data set (at time of posting) 143 'recovered'... So 143 recovered out of almost 10,000 infected. Basically until this runs much more of a duration, we have no way to be sure of mortality only to know that 2 - 3% looks at the low end. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anchadian Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 https://www.thaipbsworld.com/china-virus-death-toll-tops-200-as-who-declares-global-emergency/SHANGHAI (Reuters) – The death toll in China from the new coronavirus reached 213 on Friday, with overall cases worldwide rising rapidly in an outbreak that the World Health Organization (WHO) declared a global health emergency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
balo Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 (edited) I am a bit worried since I have a flight to Las Vegas in March, departure from Europe. If they start cancelling flights everywhere we have a problem. Edited January 31, 2020 by balo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cerox Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Would not be worried too much about the flights. If they cancel it, you get a refund. I have also around 6 flights up to until Europe in the next two months. All non-refundable 555 What bothers me more is how to do it on a long-haul flight, these masks are not really comfortable for so many hours. Also as I said before, stockpile (masks) does not last forever so I have to be stingy, since it is so difficult to buy more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICELANDMAN Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Now last information from Thai government, everyone speaking about fake news coronavirus go arrest and send prison. Everyone is warned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThaiBunny Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Sad to say for those who like some drama in their life, both the Chinese and Australian governments have announced that some patients who have been detected with the virus have now recovered and been sent home from hospital - https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-31/nsw-coronavirus-patients-released-from-hospital-infection-free/11915834 Worse for them, opinion is divided as to whether we've seen the peak and are now in a (albeit slow) decline - https://www.smh.com.au/national/we-could-be-seeing-the-peak-experts-divided-as-spread-of-coronavirus-slows-20200130-p53wan.html 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HHTel Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 2 hours ago, LivinLOS said: Another way of looking at is there are, according to the johns hopkins data set (at time of posting) 143 'recovered'... So 143 recovered out of almost 10,000 infected. The infections may be higher bringing the mortality rate down. Many have recovered from WuFlu after having only mild symptoms and have not reported for treatment and therefore not counted. Maybe they'll start checking everyone for antibodies to identify how many have recovered. Of course, I'm joking. Just to say, because of the varying degrees of infection, we don't really know the actual figures. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angry Dragon Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 24 minutes ago, HHTel said: The infections may be higher bringing the mortality rate down. Many have recovered from WuFlu after having only mild symptoms and have not reported for treatment and therefore not counted. Maybe they'll start checking everyone for antibodies to identify how many have recovered. Of course, I'm joking. Just to say, because of the varying degrees of infection, we don't really know the actual figures. researchers in HK have estimated that tens of thousands have already contacted it, bringing the mortality figures much more in the range of normal flu. this is based on thousands of people who have mild to no symptoms not being diagnosed, people being turned away from overcrowded hospitals and not being diagnosed, and those who just stay at home and don't even bother reporting. monday we will move to a new news item of the week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rabas Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 3 hours ago, LivinLOS said: The Lancent has published a paper with a studied death rate of 11% from the first cohort. The 2 - 3 % is 1) chinese publishing and 2) without factoring in the delay time between onset of symptoms and mortality.. Another way of looking at is there are, according to the johns hopkins data set (at time of posting) 143 'recovered'... So 143 recovered out of almost 10,000 infected. Basically until this runs much more of a duration, we have no way to be sure of mortality only to know that 2 - 3% looks at the low end. Agree, I think the 3% is more pop-culture spread by people (even here) who divide the reported number of dead by the total case load, many of whom just entered hospital. The first formal report of 41 patients who had either recovered or died gave a figure of 14.6% fatalities, similar to SARS. That make sense as genetically this virus is more bat like (potentially deadly) than SARS was. SARS came though civets possibly making it a bit more civilized. Spanish flu was another new to humans virus that initially behaved like a flu. It then mutated and started killing the young (those reminding us how safe they are). Roughly half the people killed were between 20 and 40. What happens when nCoV2019 mutates is completely unknown, it could well become milder and a permanent resident on Earth. "Sorry boss, can't come today, got a Chinese cold." 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marquis22 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 21 hours ago, Parsve said: I guess that you have missed that the Thai helth minister yesterday declared that there should not be any official reports from Thailand about Coronavirus before February 7 and also that the first person outside China that have died of Corona-virus was in Chang Mai. Yes, did miss that. Just being a bit flippant and stating what i have read and that not being too much as there is a lot to be divulged as time goes by. Let me know the latest %age when you can! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post placnx Posted January 31, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted January 31, 2020 8 hours ago, LivinLOS said: The Lancent has published a paper with a studied death rate of 11% from the first cohort. The 2 - 3 % is 1) chinese publishing and 2) without factoring in the delay time between onset of symptoms and mortality.. Another way of looking at is there are, according to the johns hopkins data set (at time of posting) 143 'recovered'... So 143 recovered out of almost 10,000 infected. Basically until this runs much more of a duration, we have no way to be sure of mortality only to know that 2 - 3% looks at the low end. I agree. FYI The Lancet is one of the leading medical journals in the world. To amplify previous poster's point, with such a fast moving infectious epidemic with significant latency until death or recovery, it is very important to understand current death/recovery statistics as compared with a look back at infection statistics by the number of days of an average course of detected infection until resolution one way or the other. As for the infections that do/did not rise to the notice of the system, they can be considered irrelevant for the purposes of calculating death rate after medical intervention. As time goes on, further analysis will yield answers to questions about susceptibility of various age groups, etc. To control this epidemic, a rapid and inexpensive field test is urgently needed. Is this possible? 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrTuner Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 8 hours ago, LivinLOS said: The Lancent has published a paper with a studied death rate of 11% from the first cohort. Here's the link: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30211-7/fulltext What is unsettling is the dead/recovered ratio stubbornly keeps over 50% and has for days. Today from JHU's dashboard it's 213/(213+187) = 53.25%. It seems to take a very long time to end up in the recovered side of it. Or maybe they aren't prioritizing checking if the virus has cleared since new cases are pouring in. Hard to see what is happening behind the numbers with China's Great Internet Wall in place. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rabas Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 (edited) 38 minutes ago, DrTuner said: Here's the link: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30211-7/fulltext What is unsettling is the dead/recovered ratio stubbornly keeps over 50% and has for days. Today from JHU's dashboard it's 213/(213+187) = 53.25%. It seems to take a very long time to end up in the recovered side of it. Or maybe they aren't prioritizing checking if the virus has cleared since new cases are pouring in. Hard to see what is happening behind the numbers with China's Great Internet Wall in place. Yes, agree, both numbers seem suspiciously low. I heard today that China has an acknowledged problem with how they count fatalities. For someone with pre-existing conditions who dies of the flu, the death certificate lists the pre-existing condition as cause of death, not flu. That is different from the West. That could also affect the cured number, rendering both dead and cured low. FYI, the 3g.dyx.cn site is updating faster, it is now up to 9910 China confirmed vs JHU's 9656. Total confirmed+suspected just past 25000. Edited January 31, 2020 by rabas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GroveHillWanderer Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 5 hours ago, rabas said: That make sense as genetically this virus is more bat like (potentially deadly) than SARS was. SARS came though civets possibly making it a bit more civilized. I'm not sure that being "more bat like" makes it more deadly. What would be the basis for that? In addition, this new virus also apparently came via another animal and not directly from bats. As stated in the afore-mentioned Lancet publication: Quote "These data are consistent with a bat reservoir for coronaviruses in general and 2019-nCoV in particular," said Professor Guizhen Wu, from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. "However, despite the importance of bats, it seems likely that another animal host is acting as an intermediate host between bats and humans," said Wu. Hidden animal spreading coronavirus - Lancet-study Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anchadian Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Jonathan Head has said that 5 new WuhanCoronavirus cases confirmed in Thailand. One, a taxi-driver, the first Thai infected here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HHTel Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 3 minutes ago, GroveHillWanderer said: I'm not sure that being "more bat like" makes it more deadly. What would be the basis for that? In addition, this new virus also apparently came via another animal and not directly from bats. As stated in the afore-mentioned Lancet publication: Hidden animal spreading coronavirus - Lancet-study That was the same with SARS. Originated in bats then jumped to civet cats which then jumped to humans. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anchadian Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 (edited) https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51325192?ns_mchannel=social&ns_linkname=news_central&ns_campaign=bbc_breaking&ns_source=twitter Two coronavirus cases confirmed in UK Two people have tested positive for coronavirus in the UK, the chief medical officer for England has announced. They are both members of the same family and are receiving specialist NHS care. Edited January 31, 2020 by anchadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParkerN Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 On 1/30/2020 at 5:43 AM, smedly said: for Thailand it could be too late since screening is ineffective at identifying those infected, they show no symptoms and can still spread the virus which makes this a very dangerous situation Thailand needs to take some very serious steps now or this will spread out of control if it hasn't already Na. If the numbers show it's out of control, they only need to lie about it and everything will be alright again - you know, the usual thing. But rest easy, Thais know best. It'll all be OK, no need to lose revenue or anything like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elliss Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 (edited) On 1/30/2020 at 10:24 AM, Mikeasq60 said: I'll be traveling to Thailand on the 8th of February. I'm looking forward to a wonderful holiday with my wife. and I'm a senior citizen also. Not worried about virus in the least Old age has its benefits one is , too give up worrying. Whats the point of worry , it never cured anything . Enjoy your holiday, with your wife. Edited February 1, 2020 by elliss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrTuner Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 20 minutes ago, elliss said: Old age has its benefits one is , too give up worrying. Yeah, if you only have a couple of years left anyway, how you exit is just a style issue. Bit different when you have many decades left. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteman Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 lock the doors stay inside till March and watch Leeds United win Promotion 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tropo Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 On 1/30/2020 at 6:35 AM, SkyFax said: All I can say is that, if for Thailand it is too late and that this has spread out of control already, I'm glad I'm not in Pattaya. 14 cases, and you believe it has spread out of control? Looking for reasons not to be in Pattaya? Thailand is a minor risk compared to its poorer neighbours that don't have the resources to contain it. They are panicking right now in the Philippines. Either way, if it does spread "out of control", it's not a country specific problem and you won't be safe wherever you are hiding. Sooner or later you need to go shopping, or visit an immigration office. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tropo Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 3 hours ago, DrTuner said: Yeah, if you only have a couple of years left anyway, how you exit is just a style issue. Bit different when you have many decades left. You're confident. How does one determine how long they have left? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EricTh Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 People are getting too paranoid nowadays. I was walking in a tourist area in Chiang Mai for the last few days where there are lots of Chinese tourist and I am still fine. The chance of you getting a virus from Wuhan in Thailand is one in 10 million. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elliss Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 (edited) 3 hours ago, DrTuner said: Yeah, if you only have a couple of years left anyway, how you exit is just a style issue. Bit different when you have many decades left. Get it in writing Dr... Edited February 1, 2020 by elliss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elliss Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 (edited) 45 minutes ago, tropo said: You're confident. How does one determine how long they have left? Get a second opinon ... Edited February 1, 2020 by elliss 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tropo Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 30 minutes ago, EricTh said: People are getting too paranoid nowadays. I was walking in a tourist area in Chiang Mai for the last few days where there are lots of Chinese tourist and I am still fine. The chance of you getting a virus from Wuhan in Thailand is one in 10 million. The incubation period can be up to 14 days. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-incubation-period/ You're not out of the woods yet. The fact that it can be transmitted by asymptomatic people makes it particularly frightening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
khunpa Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 46 minutes ago, tropo said: 14 cases, and you believe it has spread out of control? Looking for reasons not to be in Pattaya? Thailand is a minor risk compared to its poorer neighbours that don't have the resources to contain it. They are panicking right now in the Philippines. Either way, if it does spread "out of control", it's not a country specific problem and you won't be safe wherever you are hiding. Sooner or later you need to go shopping, or visit an immigration office. Just for your info it got to 19 yesterday and one of the infected was a Thai taxi driver. Thailand is a HUGE risk just so you know. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HHTel Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 8 minutes ago, khunpa said: Just for your info it got to 19 yesterday and one of the infected was a Thai taxi driver. Thailand is a HUGE risk just so you know. 19 but only 10 ill (9 have recovered and discharged) Sort of puts it into perspective. So far, there are no deaths outside of China and many have recovered or are recovering. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tropo Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 (edited) 16 minutes ago, khunpa said: Just for your info it got to 19 yesterday and one of the infected was a Thai taxi driver. Thailand is a HUGE risk just so you know. Yes, I'm aware of that. 19? 14? nitpicking are we? I read that 7 of them were discharged. Maybe you know what percentage of the deaths in China so far were young and healthy people? We know the flu kills many people worldwide. I would call Thailand a risk, but not a huge risk. If the risk increases, Chinese tourists will be barred from entering. Edited February 1, 2020 by tropo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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