Thailand confirms six new cases of coronavirus, including four Thais - health ministry

[Traubert]

3 hours ago, FarFlungFalang said:

The numbers on the worldometer site make for interesting interpretation and the question has been asked why does Wuhan have a death rate of 4.9% the province of Hubei 3.1% and the death rate in the other provinces 0.16%.When the outbreak stated the spread went unnoticed for a period of time (anybodies guess how long) during that time many would have been infected and infected many more (it's very virulent) since most of these early cases displayed only mild flu like they went unreported making it almost impossible to determine with any accuracy the true rate of deaths in this early period of the outbreak so they just went with the unreliable inaccurate numbers they could get at the time.These numbers now seem to be firmly entrenched in the lists we see on the net and are taken as "on face value".History should show wether this is the case as I believe it is.Note the 0.16% Fatality rate closely resembles most of the commonly accepted other flu fatality rates of 0.13%

 

  

• Mortality rate in Wuhan was 4.9%.
• Mortality rate in the Hubei Province was 3.1%.
• Mortality rate nationwide was 2.1%.
• Fatality rate in other provinces is 0.16%.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

Today marks 14 days since Wuhan was locked down, which is also the estimated incubation limit. Most of the cases who missed being confined to Wuhan (estimated at 7m) have either been infected and recovered, infected and died,have been tested and are suspect or clear, or not yet been traced. Those not yet traced are in the cross hairs. They want to know where they've been, with who and where.

 

We have two apartments which we rent to tenants, we were told yesterday to provide proof that our tenants aren't from Wuhan or have recently travelled there. They are down to door to door enquiries now.

[DrTuner]

28 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

I've posted this info from MoPH a couple times now, including above in this thread, but it seems to be not registering with you...

Ok got it now. Department of Medical Sciences is the National Institute of Health's virology lab. So, Chula, NIH and.. Red Cross? Bit suprised about the red cross, they seem to be located next door from Chula. Same lab perhaps.

 

Yes looks like the same lab:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thai_Red_Cross_Society#Medical_services

Quote

The Thai Red Cross Society operates the King Chulalongkorn Memorial Hospital in Bangkok

 

So that would make two physical reference labs in Thailand, each of which has to confirm.

Edited February 6, 2020 by DrTuner

[Traubert]

3 hours ago, FarFlungFalang said:

I totally agree with this and think this could also apply to the numbers that have come out of China it's hard enough to get anything resembling accurate figures when trying one's best to be truthful and absolutely impossible when wilful(and in my mind criminally negligent) manipulation takes place.

Well whatever you choose to believe is down to the individual and I've seen enough in the past few days to know that if the Chinese Government said the sky was blue and the sea was green there would be a wall of snarling American faces saying it was a lie without even looking for corroboration.

 

But that aside, and going back to your enquiry about provincial death rates, here in my province the death rate is 168/14 which is a damn sight higher than your figure. Here's the qualifier. We are a very rural and very elderly demographic. The cities have overgrown the towns and villages, simply absorbed them. We have the town of Bama famous for its centenarians. In my city which is a University city, with 5 Universities, the demographic is much younger and the stats there are 30/0 with approx. 2 new detected cases a day, pop. 7.1m.

 

In the light of every province having unique stats such as that it's difficult to get a linear picture.

 

Point being, as with most statistics there's going to be lumps in the line for various reasons

[DrTuner]

33 minutes ago, ThomasThBKK said:

Should be level 3 there too, same as Mahidol.

 

Mahidol has BIO level 3 labs, which is high. Same level used in SARS and MERS research labs, after all they deal with ebola there which is as deadly.

Not sure if Mahidol's lab is WHO reference lab for coronaviruses, for dengue they seem to be: https://mb.mahidol.ac.th/en/center-for-vaccine-development/

[DrTuner]

3 minutes ago, Traubert said:

But that aside, and going back to your enquiry about provincial death rates, here in my province the death rate is 168/14 which is a damn sight higher than your figure.

It's also higher than anything here: https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

 

So I take it the numbers BNO is sourcing are not the ones you got, yours are higher. Care to name the source?

[FarFlungFalang]

17 minutes ago, Traubert said:

Today marks 14 days since Wuhan was locked down, which is also the estimated incubation limit. Most of the cases who missed being confined to Wuhan (estimated at 7m) have either been infected and recovered, infected and died,have been tested and are suspect or clear, or not yet been traced. Those not yet traced are in the cross hairs. They want to know where they've been, with who and where.

 

We have two apartments which we rent to tenants, we were told yesterday to provide proof that our tenants aren't from Wuhan or have recently travelled there. They are down to door to door enquiries now.

I googled the population of Wuhan and it said 11 million and you say they estimate that 7 million to be confined to the city which leaves 4 million are they somewhere else (slipped out before the lock down or live outside the lock down area) or is one of figures incorrect? 

[Traubert]

3 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

I googled the population of Wuhan and it said 11 million and you say they estimate that 7 million to be confined to the city which leaves 4 million are they somewhere else (slipped out before the lock down or live outside the lock down area) or is one of figures incorrect? 

No. If you consider the urbanisation programme its perfectly possible they went home from their jobs to their province as millions do for Chinese New Year. I actually said that 7 m left the area for the holiday, (missed being confined) the balance of 4m being true Wuhan residents.

 

Clue: Wuhan University has 1m under and post grad students. You have to grasp the scale of the mobilisation for Chinese New Year. The individual journeys are over 1bn.

[FarFlungFalang]

14 minutes ago, Traubert said:

But that aside, and going back to your enquiry about provincial death rates, here in my province the death rate is 168/14 which is a damn sight higher than your figure. Here's the qualifier. We are a very rural and very elderly demographic.

Perhaps you can help me on how they decide who gets tested do people present themselves voluntarily if they show symptoms and so decide for themselves to get tested or not,like if it's a mild case they can decided wether to bother getting checked perhaps they're start getting better then think it's probably not the corona virus (self diagnosing as it were).Can they verify how many infections there are as distinct from confirmed infections?I believe the figures of the fatality rate of confirmed cases to fatalities I am querying the ability of quantifying the actual number of infections of any outbreak not the only the one in China, and hope I'm sounding like the figures are intentionally manipulated as is believed is the case to begin with.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

45 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

So that would make two physical reference labs in Thailand, each of which has to confirm.

 

I think that's correct. In this context, Chula and the Thai Red Cross appear to be together, and then the MoPH lab is the 2nd separate entity.

 

I don't know if those are the only two labs of their kind in Thailand. But they certainly appear to be the only two that Thai MoPH is using to establish "official" CV virus testing results.

 

Edited February 6, 2020 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[DrTuner]

Just in at CNN:

https://edition.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-02-06-20-intl-hnk/index.html

Quote

Wuhan doctor who was Coronavirus whistleblower dies from virus

From CNN’s Yong Xiong in Beijing and Hande Atay Alam in Atlanta

Li Wenliang — the Chinese whistleblower doctor who warned the public of a potential "SARS-like" disease in December 2019 — had died of coronavirus in Wuhan today, according to several state media reports.

Doctor Li Wenliang was questioned by local health authority, and was later summoned by Wuhan police to sign a reprimand letter in which he was accused of "spreading rumors online" and "severely disrupting social order." Dr. Li was hospitalized on January 12 after contracted the virus from his patient, and he was confirmed to have the coronavirus on February 1.

 

I doubt he was in the risk groups of over 60, smoker or hypertension. Took the poor doctor 3 1/2 weeks to die.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

10 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Just in at CNN:

https://edition.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-02-06-20-intl-hnk/index.html

 

I doubt he was in the risk groups of over 60, smoker or hypertension. Took the poor doctor 3 1/2 weeks to die.

 

Wow... how shocking.... how sad.... 

 

I'd say... what happened to this poor guy from start to finish is emblematic of the Chinese government's response to and handling of the CV epidemic.  And he and the other Chinese citizens, and the world are paying the price for it right now and onward.

 

Rest in Peace, Li Wenliang

 

Edited February 6, 2020 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[Traubert]

52 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

 

I can only tell you how it works in my city, although presumably it's a National directive. At first people would present themselves at a specially designated hospital at a separate reception area. Then, when it was understood how easily it was transmitted, people called a health line and described their symptoms and if it was deemed necessary a health team will go to their house to keep the family members also from having to go out in public. Initial diagnosis is done at home, and depending on the result, it's either into isolation with the full monty or daily monitoring by video call in the home. If there's a serious deterioration then into isolation again.

 

As I said above we have only 30 cases in the city and no deaths yet so I haven't seen full on emergency reaction except on TV and people I know in more heavily hit areas have told me what they have seen. People who have been anywhere near Wuhan (travel tickets here are bought with id except on city buses) have been sought out and are priority.

 

Everybody is sticking to the 'please stay at home' directive. Daily necessities only and even at the supermarket you will have your temperature taken. No mask, no entry. You can't get on public trans port without a mask. It helps that the Chinese are terrible hypochondriacs anyway, and yes I can confidently say that without fear of accusations of generalising. First cough they'll call the health line and register themselves as suspect.

 

So to clarify, red figures are in hospital, yellow figures are at home being monitored, greens are laughing their heads off because they're now immune and blacks aren't at the party.

 I am querying the ability of quantifying the actual number of infections of any outbreak not the only the one in China, and hope I'm sounding like the figures are intentionally manipulated as is believed is the case to begin with.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

...  (wrong thread...)

 

Edited February 6, 2020 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[DrTuner]

3 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

Let's not forget, the FFP had just announced their public crowdsourcing initiative to try and help Thai people find places to obtain face masks...

 

And then suddenly later today, the government ends up announcing two different major initiatives to all of a sudden start distributing/selling face masks in a broad scale around Bangkok and elsewhere...

 

I'm sure, the timing was purely a coincidence!

Well it seems to have worked. Somebody found the stash of masks they were hiding.

[balo]

7 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

Wow... how shocking.... how sad.... 

 

I'd say... what happened to this poor guy from start to finish is emblematic of the Chinese government's response to and handling of the CV epidemic.  And he and the other Chinese citizens, and the world are paying the price for it right now and onward.

 

Rest in Peace, Li Wenliang

 

That's very worrying. Did he have any other diseases , anything wrong with his immune system? He looks young to me. 

 

 

[FarFlungFalang]

9 minutes ago, balo said:

That's very worrying. Did he have any other diseases , anything wrong with his immune system? He looks young to me. 

He made China look bad by exposing what was happening and was the cause of the 2 top officials (both very high ranking and powerful) in Wuhan to lose their jobs.People are free to draw their own conclusions.This all looks a bit sus.

[mtls2005]

New, brief case study from the New England Journal of Medicine...

 

Importation and Human-to-Human Transmission of a Novel Coronavirus in Vietnam

 

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2001272

[Damrongsak]

12 minutes ago, mtls2005 said:

New, brief case study from the New England Journal of Medicine...

 

Importation and Human-to-Human Transmission of a Novel Coronavirus in Vietnam

 

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2001272

Oh, great, they were in Nha Trang for several days where my wife's sister lives.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

5 hours ago, balo said:

That's very worrying. Did he have any other diseases , anything wrong with his immune system? He looks young to me. 

 

From everything I've read, he was perfectly healthy prior to... But given this is China and the situation there, no way to know for sure.

 

BTW, older people may be more vulnerable to serious complications from this virus, but they are by no mean the only ones who are catching it.  In the Chinese media the other day, they announced two cases where newborn babies had tested positive for the virus after being born from mothers who had it.

 

 

Edited February 7, 2020 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[overherebc]

The cruise ship in Italy has been given the all clear but now a cruise ship in Hon Kong has been locked down.

So now one ship in Japan and one in HK.

[DrTuner]

I think North Korea is taking a page from Thailand's playbook:

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/06/asia/north-korea-wuhan-coronavirus-infection-intl-hnk/index.html

 

Make no tests and you'll get no confirmed diagnoses. 

[404error]

On 2/4/2020 at 11:01 AM, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

First it was one Thai (the taxi driver), now it's four more for a total of 5, and then and then.....  And those are just the "official" numbers...

 

On 2/4/2020 at 11:01 AM, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

Its just the beggining of this flue. Wonder how Songkran will be this year..

 

We estimate that around 50,000 new people are infected in China each day. This is much higher than the authorities report, says Professor Neil Ferguson at Imperial College London. He is regarded as the world's leading expert on the spread of infection. Ferguson adds that the number of unreported cases is increasing every single day.

 

[fhickson]

On 2/4/2020 at 5:01 PM, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

First it was one Thai (the taxi driver), now it's four more for a total of 5, and then and then.....  And those are just the "official" numbers...

 

 

pretty scary, esp since these guys always have all the windows rolled up with air con on.

 

i guess its time to break the taboo and roll down those rear windows!

 

you need some fresh air anyhow, air con is very unhealthy.

Edited February 7, 2020 by fhickson

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

10 minutes ago, fhickson said:

pretty scary, esp since these guys always have all the windows rolled up with air con on.

 

i guess its time to break the taboo and roll down those rear windows!

 

Things here seem to be remaining pretty much in hand... But if you want to see evidence of how the CV can spread in close quarters, see the news out of Japan today:

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/japan-reports-41-new-coronavirus-infections-on-quarantined-cruise-liner-11581045439

 

That's 41 new cases in addition to the 20 they had previously identified from the same ship.

 

----------------------

 

Princess Cruises identified the origins of the 41 new cases/patients as follows:

 

Quote

 

Princess Cruises can confirm the nationalities of the 41 people who were tested positive for Coronavirus are from Argentina (one); Australia (five); Canada (five), Japan (21); United Kingdom (one) and United States (eight).

The Japanese Ministry of Health has confirmed this is the last batch to be tested and the quarantine end date will be February 19, unless there are any other unforeseen developments.

 

https://www.princess.com/news/notices_and_advisories/notices/diamond-princess-update.html

 

 

Edited February 7, 2020 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[Tayaout]

46 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

Things here seem to be remaining pretty much in hand... But if you want to see evidence of how the CV can spread in close quarters, see the news out of Japan today:

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/japan-reports-41-new-coronavirus-infections-on-quarantined-cruise-liner-11581045439

 

That's 41 new cases in addition to the 20 they had previously identified from the same ship.

 

----------------------

 

Princess Cruises identified the origins of the 41 new cases/patients as follows:

 

https://www.princess.com/news/notices_and_advisories/notices/diamond-princess-update.html

 

 

I read somewhere that they are only testing those with symptoms. They have 3K+ passengers on board and Japan health official said it would not be practical to test them all. 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

4 minutes ago, Tayaout said:

I read somewhere that they are only testing those with symptoms. They have 3K+ passengers on board and Japan health official said it would not be practical to test them all. 

 

But they're also keeping everyone onboard for at least a 2 week quarantine... So supposedly, no one's getting off the ship -- except for CV treatment -- until the quarantine has passed.

[Tayaout]

2 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

But they're also keeping everyone onboard for at least a 2 week quarantine... So supposedly, no one's getting off the ship -- except for CV treatment -- until the quarantine has passed.

What happen if someone has symptoms in 13 days and then another 13 days later?Could take a couple years... ????

Edited February 7, 2020 by Tayaout

[AlfHuy]

no new cases confirmed here?? Singapore play open game. Every day, updated number; Sorry, revenue more important.

[uhuh]

3 hours ago, AlfHuy said:

no new cases confirmed here?? Singapore play open game. Every day, updated number; Sorry, revenue more important.

The Thai authorities do not post updates anymore. 

So nobody knows how many new infections there are. 

After several days of near-panic Thai people are now quite relaxed,  not many wear masks anymore,  even on the BTS. Because the masks they wore the last couple of days are dirty by now,  and you cannot buy new masks, they are sold out almost everywhere (guess who might have bought them? )

[Tayaout]

12 hours ago, Tayaout said:

What happen if someone has symptoms in 13 days and then another 13 days later?Could take a couple years... ????

"On Cruise Ship Quarantined In Japan, Any New Cases Would Reset The Isolation Clock" 

https://www.npr.org/2020/02/07/803843303/on-cruise-ship-quarantined-in-japan-any-new-cases-would-reset-the-isolation-cloc