Coronavirus cases outside China 'could be spark' for bigger fire, WHO says

[Forethat]

3 hours ago, Proboscis said:

Actually incorrect. While SARS may have been more infectious among a particular ethnic group, such as the Chinese, it does not follow that another virus, whether of the same structure or different, would behave in the same manner. There is currently no empirical evidence to suggest otherwise.

To clarify: I confirmed the notion that there is scientific evidence that particular genes were associated with susceptibility for SARS-coronavirus. Nothing else.

[tlandtday]

10 minutes ago, Haecksler said:

A successful kill of microorganism is granted @ 60°C over more days.

I think UV radiation might be more the reason of less patience in Thailand as many activities are outside. In Singapore probaply more people are doing activities inside.

Just a theory.

secondly a study provided that the protein Ace2 which the damn virus needs to connect and is located deep in the lungs is found more in lungs of smokers. The theory is applied on Chinese as allegedly 41% of smokers are male.

I would put money on it that this is a biological weapon strain to hell with the bat soup bs.

[tlandtday]

Let's see what WHO comes up with hopefully WHY, WHERE and HOW will be there too:)

[WaveHunter]

1 hour ago, rudi49jr said:

But Trump, the White House Oracle, just said that the virus will be gone by April. And he is never wrong and always tells the truth, so there is nothing to worry about!

Why don't you try to be a bit more fair and balanced in your remarks?  Trump was referring to well-vetted projections that "herd immunity" effect will cause this outbreak in China to peak by April and begin to subside if there are no new surprises...a big "if", granted. 

 

Nonetheless, his putting a positive spin on this without downplaying this as anything but a dangerous outbreak is a wise move.  It gives the public an end point to visualize in this crisis without minimizing what lies ahead.  IMO, that's not something that should be criticized but praied.

Edited February 11, 2020 by WaveHunter

[rabas]

2 hours ago, Haecksler said:

A successful kill of microorganism is granted @ 60°C over more days.

I think UV radiation might be more the reason of less patience in Thailand as many activities are outside. In Singapore probaply more people are doing activities inside.

Just a theory.

Reasonable theory, UV germicidal lamps kill the virus but it takes time, like a few minutes. But forget UV protection in Bangkok. When I came here 35 years ago UV could cook your skin in no time but now there is little UV effect until you get out in the provinces.  Just an observation. 

 

Other temperature studies said various combinations of high, medium, and low temperature and humidity produced different results. In particular, 25^oC and RH 50% was very favourable for virus survival. That's many air-conditioned venues.

[WaveHunter]

13 minutes ago, rabas said:

Reasonable theory, UV germicidal lamps kill the virus but it takes time, like a few minutes. But forget UV protection in Bangkok. When I came here 35 years ago UV could cook your skin in no time but now there is little UV effect until you get out in the provinces.  Just an observation. 

 

Other temperature studies said various combinations of high, medium, and low temperature and humidity produced different results. In particular, 25^oC and RH 50% was very favourable for virus survival. That's many air-conditioned venues.

Many viruses are seasonal events for this reason, and it may turn out to be one of China's saving graces as the winter ends and temperatures rise.  Virus computer modelling is indicating that the virus may peak by April through "herd immunity" effect, and combined with warmer weather, nature may end up accomplishing what the Chinese Government apparently can not.  That is, at least, the hope of many experts.

 

Edited February 11, 2020 by WaveHunter

[URMySunshine]

10 hours ago, car720 said:

For anyone who has lived in China the answer is glaringly obvious.  Every time that someone has even the sniffles, the doctors and pharmacies dish out antibiotics by the fistful with no real regard for effect.  I believe that the collective Chinese immune system is shot to hell and gone.

That said my missus contrasts the response in Thailand to that in the UK as Thais have much more natural immunity to stuff than falangs because they live in a much more environmentally challenged environment that westerners. And they have a more fatalistic approach to life - die is die , mai bpen rai which might in this crisis be an actual  positive and stop panic mode setting in. 

[URMySunshine]

2 hours ago, WaveHunter said:

Why don't you try to be a bit more fair and balanced in your remarks?  Trump was referring to well-vetted projections that "herd immunity" effect will cause this outbreak in China to peak by April and begin to subside if there are no new surprises...a big "if", granted. 

 

Nonetheless, his putting a positive spin on this without downplaying this as anything but a dangerous outbreak is a wise move.  It gives the public an end point to visualize in this crisis without minimizing what lies ahead.  IMO, that's not something that should be criticized but praied.

Could you provide a link from some expert in the field who asserts this, as 'Trump thinks' is not anything that counts for anything in my world I'm afraid. 

[placnx]

9 hours ago, stevenl said:

I think the main issue is respiratory issues in China due to air pollution and cigarette smoking. Regarding the latter, look at the difference between men and women in both smoking and death rate.

Pollution in Chinese cities as a factor in making them more susceptible to pulmonary complications seems quite logical.

[placnx]

2 hours ago, WaveHunter said:

Many viruses are seasonal events for this reason, and it may turn out to be one of China's saving graces as the winter ends and temperatures rise.  Virus computer modelling is indicating that the virus may peak by April through "herd immunity" effect, and combined with warmer weather, nature may end up accomplishing what the Chinese Government apparently can not.  That is, at least, the hope of many experts.

 

"Herd immunity": Isn't this an effect resulting when 70% or more have gotten the disease (or at least immune system challenge) or a vaccination? It doesn't happen of its own accord. In view of the death rate, just letting it happen would result in a lot of fatalities because the medical system would be swamped.

[WaveHunter]

2 hours ago, URMySunshine said:

Could you provide a link from some expert in the field who asserts this, as 'Trump thinks' is not anything that counts for anything in my world I'm afraid. 

First of all, I did not say "Trump thinks...".  I said "Trump was referring to well-vetted projections"  Let's be accurate, OK? 

 

As I said, the source is well vetted.  The study Trump's comment was based on appeared in The Lancet on 31 January.  In case you are not aware, The Lancet is probably the most well-respected, peer-reviewed medical journal in the world.

 

The title of the Study:  

 

Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modelling study.

 

Authored by:

WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control

School of Public Health Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine University of Hong Kong 

(Prof J T Wu PhD, K Leung PhD, Prof G M Leung MD)

 

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9/fulltext.

 

[Peterbilt]

14 hours ago, Scott said:

There is another idea about the virus and why it is spreading there and not so much in other places.   It has to do with weather:

 

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/commentary/hot-climate-wuhan-virus-vaccine-12389694

 

Sounds possible to me (but I'm not a medic!). We should also keep in mind that many houses and flats in China do not have a heating. Thats an order by former dictator Mao who said that south of the Yangtse river a heating is not necessary.

I remember a photo my ex-fiancee (she is BTW from Wuhan....) sent me. That photo shows a family meeting at lunar / chinese new year. Every person was wearing thick winter clothing, but they were inside a room....

Edited February 11, 2020 by Peterbilt

[WaveHunter]

43 minutes ago, placnx said:

"Herd immunity": Isn't this an effect resulting when 70% or more have gotten the disease (or at least immune system challenge) or a vaccination? It doesn't happen of its own accord. In view of the death rate, just letting it happen would result in a lot of fatalities because the medical system would be swamped.

I never said that; I said that herd immunity occurs when people recover, since their body has now developed some immunity and re-infection will be far less likely to occur a 2nd time.  It will therefore start lowering the R-Naught (infectiousness) in the population as a whole as time goes on.

 

Further, it's not a matter of "letting it happen".  Unfortunately, a lot of people are already infected (computer modelling reported in The Lancet suggests around 75,000 infections in Wuhan alone, with a possibility of up to 133,330 infections (as of the end of January):

 

From the Lancet Study:  "...In our baseline scenario, we estimated that the basic reproductive number (R-Naught) for 2019-nCoV was 2·68 (95% CrI 2·47–2·86) and that 75 815 individuals (95% CrI 37 304–130 330) have been infected in Wuhan as of Jan 25, 2020. ..."

 

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9/fulltext

 

With the current Serious Complication Rate (SCR) of 20%, the number of confirmed infections that will go on to require ICU care will probably overwhelm the healthcare system in Wuhan very shortly (i.e.: ICU estimate based on 75,000 confirmed cases is 15,000 ICU cases, based on 133,000 is 26,600 ICU cases, if the SCR is 20%)

 

When that happens, the mortality rate will rise dramatically from whatever it is presently, not due to the virus as much as due to the inability to provide proper treatment for so many ICU patients.

 

Unfortunately, many will die, but many more will most likely recover, and they will be become part of the "herd". 

 

Recovered patients are increasingly outnumbering deaths now, thankfully.  As of yesterday the stats were:

910 Deaths and 3,578 recoveries, so a lot of people are recovering. 

 

What's more, many people that are infected but never set foot in a hospital because they only had minor symptoms, or didn't even know they were infected because they had no symptoms will also contribute to the "herd" effect.

 

Look, I am not a doctor and make no claim to be an expert, but I can read and I can be selective about only reading from science based and well vetted sources, and I can be objective in drawing conclusions from what I learn.  Read the study, and decide for yourself what you think.

 

 

Edited February 11, 2020 by WaveHunter

[car720]

13 hours ago, URMySunshine said:

That said my missus contrasts the response in Thailand to that in the UK as Thais have much more natural immunity to stuff than falangs because they live in a much more environmentally challenged environment that westerners. And they have a more fatalistic approach to life - die is die , mai bpen rai which might in this crisis be an actual  positive and stop panic mode setting in. 

So true.  Thai women eat an abundance of Som Tahm.  If that doesn't kill them nothing will.

[Haecksler]

20 hours ago, rabas said:

Reasonable theory, UV germicidal lamps kill the virus but it takes time, like a few minutes. But forget UV protection in Bangkok. When I came here 35 years ago UV could cook your skin in no time but now there is little UV effect until you get out in the provinces.  Just an observation. 

 

Other temperature studies said various combinations of high, medium, and low temperature and humidity produced different results. In particular, 25^oC and RH 50% was very favourable for virus survival. That's many air-conditioned venues.

Good point regarding UV in BKK. You save heaps of expensive sun block and the ladies skin color remain white. ????

There is something which quite doesn't match with the situation in China and I want to evaluate some numbers regardless what we believe or not. (bare with me I post this on another thread, too)

1. The number of 33 confirmed cases in Thailand seems low, but concerning of the testing procedure which is allegedly slow (4-5 tests per day) this number is quite high IMO.

2. https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/situation.php   The number of "patience receiving treatment at hospitals" is low and not growing. The number once stands on 410 approx. 10 days ago is now on 355.

3. The severe cases / deaths outside China is low / not growing.

4. There is only 1 confirmed case of people traveling in Thailand and tested positive after return.

If the Virus is spreading fast in Thailand the numbers regarding 2. and 4. should growing but they not.

- correct me if I am wrong.

I also think that some numbers are quite difficult to keep low. I have big difficulties to evaluate the situation in prudently. 

[placnx]

19 hours ago, WaveHunter said:

I never said that; I said that herd immunity occurs when people recover, since their body has now developed some immunity and re-infection will be far less likely to occur a 2nd time.  It will therefore start lowering the R-Naught (infectiousness) in the population as a whole as time goes on.

 

Further, it's not a matter of "letting it happen".  Unfortunately, a lot of people are already infected (computer modelling reported in The Lancet suggests around 75,000 infections in Wuhan alone, with a possibility of up to 133,330 infections (as of the end of January):

 

From the Lancet Study:  "...In our baseline scenario, we estimated that the basic reproductive number (R-Naught) for 2019-nCoV was 2·68 (95% CrI 2·47–2·86) and that 75 815 individuals (95% CrI 37 304–130 330) have been infected in Wuhan as of Jan 25, 2020. ..."

 

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9/fulltext

 

With the current Serious Complication Rate (SCR) of 20%, the number of confirmed infections that will go on to require ICU care will probably overwhelm the healthcare system in Wuhan very shortly (i.e.: ICU estimate based on 75,000 confirmed cases is 15,000 ICU cases, based on 133,000 is 26,600 ICU cases, if the SCR is 20%)

 

When that happens, the mortality rate will rise dramatically from whatever it is presently, not due to the virus as much as due to the inability to provide proper treatment for so many ICU patients.

 

Unfortunately, many will die, but many more will most likely recover, and they will be become part of the "herd". 

 

Recovered patients are increasingly outnumbering deaths now, thankfully.  As of yesterday the stats were:

910 Deaths and 3,578 recoveries, so a lot of people are recovering. 

 

What's more, many people that are infected but never set foot in a hospital because they only had minor symptoms, or didn't even know they were infected because they had no symptoms will also contribute to the "herd" effect.

 

Look, I am not a doctor and make no claim to be an expert, but I can read and I can be selective about only reading from science based and well vetted sources, and I can be objective in drawing conclusions from what I learn.  Read the study, and decide for yourself what you think.

 

 

There are 60 million people in Hebei, so with the health facilities already being overwhelmed, there could be a big number of fatalities even at a rate under 5%. So getting to have 70% or more of the population infected and mostly cured/recovered (herd immunity) is not a happy ending. The best thing is to slow the spread in other countries. It can't be stopped completely, but it would allow more time to find effective treatments, put in place 15-minute tests and produce and distribute related equipment. It seems to me to be too late for China since so many people left Hebei for CNY. Also, the poor medical facilities in Burma and Cambodia have got to be a worry for Thailand.

 

Regarding herd immunity, will it protect against a mutation showing up sometime later? Hopefully there will be a vaccine platform that can be reconfigured when a mutation arises, rather like flu vaccines.

[stevenl]

5 minutes ago, placnx said:

There are 60 million people in Hebei, so with the health facilities already being overwhelmed, there could be a big number of fatalities even at a rate under 5%. So getting to have 70% or more of the population infected and mostly cured/recovered (herd immunity) is not a happy ending. The best thing is to slow the spread in other countries. It can't be stopped completely, but it would allow more time to find effective treatments, put in place 15-minute tests and produce and distribute related equipment. It seems to me to be too late for China since so many people left Hebei for CNY. Also, the poor medical facilities in Burma and Cambodia have got to be a worry for Thailand.

 

Regarding herd immunity, will it protect against a mutation showing up sometime later? Hopefully there will be a vaccine platform that can be reconfigured when a mutation arises, rather like flu vaccines.

"It seems to me to be too late for China since so many people left Hebei for CNY."

Look at the number of infections and deaths, both almost exclusively Hubei, especially Wuhan.

[DrTuner]

5 minutes ago, stevenl said:

"It seems to me to be too late for China since so many people left Hebei for CNY."

Look at the number of infections and deaths, both almost exclusively Hubei, especially Wuhan.

Wuhan started early in January/late December. Others are still brewing. The incubation time is now thought to be up to 24 days. It's just starting.

[Forethat]

4 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Wuhan started early in January/late December. Others are still brewing. The incubation time is now thought to be up to 24 days. It's just starting.

Do you have a link to a reliable source where the 24 days incubation can be confirmed?

[DrTuner]

3 minutes ago, Forethat said:

Do you have a link to a reliable source where the 24 days incubation can be confirmed?

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/research-shows-3-day-median-incubation-period-for-coronavirus

 

Quote

Mr Guan Weijie, a member of the research team, told Red Star News on Monday that only in very rare cases has the coronavirus incubated for 24 days, and there is no need to prolong the isolation period for suspected patients. The study, published on Sunday (Feb 9) on medical research archive medRxiv, is a prepublication paper and has not been peer-reviewed and therefore should not be used to guide clinical practice, medRxiv said.

 

I didn't see the medrxiv link there. 

[Forethat]

3 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/research-shows-3-day-median-incubation-period-for-coronavirus

 

 

I didn't see the medrxiv link there. 

Thanks. I found the paper. Pre-peer reviewed, but still incredibly interesting.

 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.06.20020974v1