Coronavirus, What are the Odds of getting this Virus, Really?

[iLuvThai]

For starters a disclaimer: I do no wish o downlay the threat of getting this virus by any means, people are dying. I am kind of thinking out loud simply because the media has this way of inducing fear into the masses.

 

What really are the odds of getting his coronavirus. Lets look at a couple facts. Of course this is getting worse before it will get better but who remembers SARS. I'm just saying.

 

I am currently in Vietnam until March 5th when my wife and I will fly to Bangkok then onto her home in Chiang Rai. April 28 I leave Thailand for home in Canada with 2 stops in China.

 

Today as I write this The World population is 7,778,009,1++ and climbing.

Vietnam populations is currently 98,429,867 if the numbers are being reported correctly Vietnam has 16 with the virus zero deaths and claiming all 16 have recovered.

 

Thailand populations is 69,171,945 Again, if the numbers are being reported correctly Thailand has 40 with the virus, 22 recovered 2 in serious critical.

 

China is the worst as we all know. Population 1,409,663,197 Again, if the numbers are being reported correctly, 78,515 with the virus, total deaths 2,747. Total recovered 32,595. Serious Critical 8,346.

 

So I think you can see where I am going with this. Am I saying we have nothing to worry about? No I'm not, I don't go outside without my mask when going in public areas with lots of people. Just going to the corner shop I don't bother.

 

Earlier today I was on LINE with a trucking buddy who was trucking through the USA, he asked me if people are wearing the mask over here and I told him MY GUESS is that more than 60% of the people we encounter daily are wearing one. I think that number is growing daily. He than told me a story of a 24 year old young lady in his church who was recently married just died from a virus but the Coronavirus. APPARENTLY, she went to the doctors in Canada with flu like symtoms and was sent home told she just had a cold, eat chicken soup take vitimin C and Tylnol for her headache. A couple days later she was feeling worse, returned to the doctor, was air lifted to the St. Boniface Hospital where she died. (Unless there is a simliar story that just happened, because my friend made me think this happened this week, I did some reseach and found a news story, this happened in January.) You can read it here if you so desire. https://winnipeg.ctvnews.ca/manitoba-woman-24-dead-days-after-getting-sick-with-the-flu-husband-1.4768440

 

Anyway, just becareful but don't stop living your life. Living with worry is like sitting in a rockin chair, it gives you something to do but gets you know where.

I'm praying that some day very soon this will be a distant memory and we'll be onto the next thing. Unfortunately unless things change, I still have 2 stops in China April 28. 

 

One last thing, according to https://countrymeters.info/en/World in the time it took me to craft the message, the World Population grew by almost 10,000.

 

God Bless and Be well. ????????

Edited February 27, 2020 by iLuvThai
change some facts.

[Puchaiyank]

One...and done!

[EVENKEEL]

You're the one wearing a mask, saying don't worry.

[spiekerjozef]

70%

[4MyEgo]

Welcome to the new world order, the more your out and about, the more your chances of contracting the virus in my opinion.

 

The above said, I want to go on holidays down south with the wife and kids (4) next month/April as the kids have two months off during the hot season, albeit the house is very comfortable come the hot weather, that said, the wife doesn't want to go anywhere because of this virus.

 

Australia my homeland jut went to pandemic level saying that anyone returning from south-east Asia is to be self quarantined and have only have about 7 people infected from 22 which are not in a serious state, now that the government back home has gone to this level, tells me that they don't have the confidence to wait for the WHO to announce it as a pandemic, finally someone has the balls to think outside the square, not here though and we are so close to our neighbours.

 

Might have to get on a flight back home soon, otherwise just stay home and away from people till we have to go out, school is of concern, because here if the kids are sick they don't send them home, they don't have a policy for the Coronavirus, and this is a public school, kids still drink from the same cup at the water bottle area.

 

So you ask how high your chances are, well REALLY, REALLY high if your heading to China.

 

We all control our destiny, and if me was you, China would be put on the back burner without thinking twice.

 

Stay safe and hug your wife everyday.   

[stouricks]

30 minutes ago, EVENKEEL said:

You're the one wearing a mask, saying don't worry.

Heard on LBC this morning from an expert who verified that wearing a mask, even an N95 one, WILL NOT stop the virus from entering your body if it is present unless it is fitted professionally. It WILL stop any droplets of virus laden snot from an infected person being thrown into the air.

[scubascuba3]

The world is coming to a standstill just out of fear of the virus

[URMySunshine]

What we have to go on is expert opinions (and President Trump) and this is what they are saying. With its current virulence and we are almost certainly in a pandemic situation then estimates from them are that 40 - 70 % of the population are likely to get it.

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-expert-opinions/

 

This is really a global problem that’s not going to go away in a week or two.

What makes this one perhaps harder to control than SARS is that it may be possible to transmit before you are sick.

I think we should be prepared for the equivalent of a very, very bad flu season, or maybe the worst-ever flu season in modern times.
Prof. Marc Lipsitch
Prof. of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health
Head, Harvard Ctr. Communicable Disease Dynamics
Feb. 11, 2020

[iLuvThai]

1 hour ago, EVENKEEL said:

You're the one wearing a mask, saying don't worry.

I'm actually only wearing the mask becuase it makes other happy including my wife.????????

[iLuvThai]

1 hour ago, Puchaiyank said:

One...and done!

It is appointed unto man once to die......thankfully we don't

know when that is.....so sadly people go around in fear of living.????????

[iLuvThai]

37 minutes ago, stouricks said:

Heard on LBC this morning from an expert who verified that wearing a mask, even an N95 one, WILL NOT stop the virus from entering your body if it is present unless it is fitted professionally. It WILL stop any droplets of virus laden snot from an infected person being thrown into the air.

I heard that also but glad you shared it. I'm only wearing the mask because it makes others happy, I don't want to live my life in what if's and fear.????????????

 

[iLuvThai]

1 hour ago, spiekerjozef said:

70%

I was not good in math but I am going to guess you pulled 70% out of thin air. I don't think based on the numbers that it would be 70% even if you live in China. At least not today. ????????????

[CGW]

The odds on surviving the virus appears to be highly dependant on what "age group" you are in, how well your immune system is working and exposure, given that, I consider myself to be at a very low risk of contagion!

If I was 80+ in lousy health and a smoker I would be worried!

 

Edited February 27, 2020 by CGW
getting changed to surviving!

[Susco]

1 minute ago, CGW said:

The odds on getting the virus appears to be highly dependant on what "group" you are in, how well your immune system is working and exposure, given that, I consider myself to be at a very low risk of contagion!

 

That are fatality rates of infected people, something completely different of what the OP is asking, which the possibility rate to get infected

[NCC1701A]

I would not worry about getting the virus.

i would worry about the effects of a pandemic.

 

[lust]

15 minutes ago, iLuvThai said:

I heard that also but glad you shared it. I'm only wearing the mask because it makes others happy, I don't want to live my life in what if's and fear.????????????

 

How pathetic. I see people playing with their masks, touching the inside, putting them under their chin, idiots don’t even know what they’re doing but they think they’re doing something. Monkey see, monkey do.

[iLuvThai]

10 minutes ago, CGW said:

The odds on getting the virus appears to be highly dependant on what "age group" you are in, how well your immune system is working and exposure, given that, I consider myself to be at a very low risk of contagion!

If I was 80+ in lousy health and a smoker I would be worried!

 

Thanks for that post. ????????????

[from the home of CC]

If you're under 60 the regular flu has a higher fatality rate by far. I guess we'll see how many of the ol timers on tvf stop contributing to the discourse which will give you an idea on it's effects here...

[CGW]

10 minutes ago, Susco said:

That are fatality rates of infected people, something completely different of what the OP is asking, which the possibility rate to get infected

Apart from the fact I may well have missed the point! you can draw your own conclusions if you are in the high risk category?

 

"The median age of cases detected outside of China is 45 years ranging from2 to 74 years, 71% of cases were male (information was missing on age for 6 cases, and on sex for 4 cases)."

 

I will remain optimistic ???? I am not 45 and will be "identifying" as a female for the duration of this epidemic!

[canthai55]

Unless you are very young, very old, or have a compromised immune system, you are very very unlikely to die from it.

Get the Flu, feel rotten, cough, get better, - end of.

The Spanish Flu - 1918 - 1920 - according to WHO had a case-fatality ratio ratio of 2-3%.

And it was a H1N1 virus, as was Swine Flu which killed up to 203,000 worldwide.

And health care in those times was abysmal.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

Am I worried - No

Am rather amused to read all the posts on this, most Doom and Gloom End of the World Baloney.

But many people live their lives in fear of something - or anything - or everything.

If in doubt, wear a Tin Foil hat, stay home with the doors locked, and stay away from the Internet. Do yourself a favor. And the rest of us.

[URMySunshine]

5 minutes ago, canthai55 said:

Unless you are very young, very old, or have a compromised immune system, you are very very unlikely to die from it.

Get the Flu, feel rotten, cough, get better, - end of.

The Spanish Flu - 1918 - 1920 - according to WHO had a case-fatality ratio ratio of 2-3%.

And it was a H1N1 virus, as was Swine Flu which killed up to 203,000 worldwide.

And health care in those times was abysmal.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

Am I worried - No

Am rather amused to read all the posts on this, most Doom and Gloom End of the World Baloney.

But many people live their lives in fear of something - or anything - or everything.

If in doubt, wear a Tin Foil hat, stay home with the doors locked, and stay away from the Internet. Do yourself a favor. And the rest of us.

Well that's that then - no need to listen to WHO, CDC esteemed Professors of Virology with decades of knowledge a bloke on TVF has all the answers. That said we all die in the end and if the grim reaper has your name on the bullet then that's that. And if you care so much about ignoring it why come a thread to say that. The Farang Pub is thattaway ----->

[soalbundy]

1 hour ago, iLuvThai said:

I'm actually only wearing the mask becuase it makes other happy including my wife.????????

Get a grip, it's a pimped up flu virus, you've got a bigger chance of getting stabbed in London

[ChouDoufu]

currently in hainan, china with a population of 8 million, and a similar climate to thailand.  they say the virus may not thrive in warmer locales.

 

total of 168 cases of the virus confirmed, no change for the past week.  5 dead so far, all of which have been over 70 i believe.  129 have been released from hospital, leaving 34 active cases, of which only a few are considered critical.

 

still mostly shut down since the lunar new year holidays, few stores are open yet.  received clearance from the provincial government this morning for 18 towns and cities to restart public buses and taxis.

[Tayaout]

If you works in a hospitals then the odds are pretty high. If you are an hermit in the Himalayas then it's near zero. 

[URMySunshine]

3 minutes ago, ChouDoufu said:

currently in hainan, china with a population of 8 million, and a similar climate to thailand.  they say the virus may not thrive in warmer locales.

 

total of 168 cases of the virus confirmed, no change for the past week.  5 dead so far, all of which have been over 70 i believe.  129 have been released from hospital, leaving 34 active cases, of which only a few are considered critical.

 

still mostly shut down since the lunar new year holidays, few stores are open yet.  received clearance from the provincial government this morning for 18 towns and cities to restart public buses and taxis.

Interesting your anecdotal would seem to support The Thailand's Different theory although the draconian lockdown and distance from the epicentre might also be key factors. 

 

https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C1CHBF_enGB778GB779&sxsrf=ALeKk00D8V2EhM4d2krD3cAitE7zMEdSjw%3A1582803207482&ei=B6lXXuyGHdeM4-EPhoihgA8&q=hainan+weather&oq=hainan%2Cwear&gs_l=psy-ab.1.0.0i10i70i256j0i10l9.31.687..4048...0.0..0.265.837.0j1j3......0....1..gws-wiz.......0i273j0i20i263j0.hAR36In3FeU

[ChouDoufu]

other points in our favor - isolation from the mainland, ferry service and flights can be restricted easily.  also low population density, as the island is mostly still agricultural with a few pockets of tourism.

 

slowing in other provinces as well.  liaoning and guizhou, no new cases for 9 days.  8 days for gansu.  hainan and yunnan about a week. 

[kingdong]

1 hour ago, iLuvThai said:

I'm actually only wearing the mask becuase it makes other happy including my wife.????????

Are you that ugly?

[URMySunshine]

.

Edited February 27, 2020 by URMySunshine

[KhunBENQ]

4 hours ago, scubascuba3 said:

The world is coming to a standstill just out of fear of the virus

I am waiting for the first victims of Corona scare dying of heart attack or the like.

What will happen if a real dangerous virus with high mortality will spread?

Ordinary flu killing tens of thousands every year.

Don't leave the house without proper gear!

Edited February 27, 2020 by KhunBENQ

[JimHuaHin]

What really are the odds of getting this coronavirus.

 

You are asking a question which, specifically to you, is difficult to answer.  We need to know about your lifestyle and specifically where you are going, ie public places with many people, eg hospitals, shopping malls, airports, etc.

 

For example: the US CDC has a web page that gives specific event (sexual intercourse with an individual who is HIV positive) life time probabilities of contracting HIV from a person who is HIV positive.  Factors such as type of sexual act and the HIV positive person's HIV viral load need to be taken into account.  If you consult the CDC data, you will see that the probability of contracting HIV from a single sexual act is, in some cases, very very low, less that 0.001% (for memory); in other cases it is high, about 5% (for memory).

 

If you daily frequent areas where there are people with the coronavirus, your chances of getting it are very high.  Remember, the virus is transmitted via water molecules, so any one with the virus who sneezes, perspires, or other wise expells water molecules from their body is a real threat (unless your body is 100% covered with protective attire).  The WHO suggests that a safe distance from people with the virus is about 1 metre.  Fask masks REDUCE, but do not elimate the threat; any water molecule from an infected peson which comes into contact with any part of your body are a threat.