Dangerous Normalcy Bias?

[NCC1701A]

"Normalcy bias, or normality bias, is a tendency for people to believe that things will always function the way they normally have functioned and therefore to underestimate both the likelihood of a disaster and its possible effects"

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normalcy_bias

 

I am thinking Thailand attracts a certain type of tourist and Expat. Someone with a sense of adventure and is maybe quick to throw caution to the wind. I know I am one of those. Thailand as we all know has inherently dangerous roads and highways, but we are out there, everyday. Many of us put up with a lot of <deleted> and give up a higher standard of living to be here. But this is different. The virus is different.     

 

I am hoping everyone on this forum rethinks the seriousness of the Covid19 pandemic. There is a incredible amount of cavalier attitude and incorrect suggestions and comments about the virus. 

 

and think about this new information:

 

If you arrive at the airport in #Thailand as a tourist or as someone just in transit, and you have a fever, you will be taken to a hospital for further testing and mandatory quarantine. If you pass the medical check at the airport, you can of course leave the country at any time.

 

https://twitter.com/RichardBarrow/status/1237617752199901186

 

Please note, they have now added extra medical checkpoints in departures at all main international airports. So, it is wise to check in three hours before your flight in case of delays being checked. If you have a fever, you cannot board the plane #Thailand

 

https://twitter.com/RichardBarrow/status/1237618472009506816

 

does that sound like business as usual?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

Edited March 11, 2020 by NCC1701A

[twocatsmac]

This virus and others in recent history started in a country that spends billions of dollars every year on weapons and a space program. 

Let them get their greedy fingers out and solve what they’ve created, same goes for the rest of the so called super powers.

Edited March 11, 2020 by twocatsmac

[CharlieH]

Flame post in violation of forum rule 7.removed

[timendres]

3 minutes ago, Yinn said:

Good Afternoon NCC 

 

This thread number 16 you start about the covid 19. 

 

You thread contradiction each other. Please not give false information, cause panic and waste people time.

 

3 days ago your thread claim masturbation good for covid 19.

 

Plenty information about covid now. You really need to start so many thread?

For what? 

@NCC1701A prior post regarding masturbation was in his typical humorous style. This post, being more serious, makes a valid point. Travel at the moment has serious implications, and could turn out to be costly, both in terms of time lost, as well as money wasted. Being stranded and missing flights due to quarantine is a real concern at this time. So is the potential for lengthy delays at the airport. So it is quite valid to point this out as something that should be considered if traveling.

[Nyezhov]

6 minutes ago, timendres said:

So it is quite valid to point this out as something that should be considered if traveling.

What insight! Hey @NCC1701A what about hand washing? Enlighten us Uncle!

[Rookiescot]

Only thing we can hope for is this hotter weather will see the number of new infections drop off. Apparently the virus does not survive for long on surfaces in high heat and humidity.

No I dont believe the government figures paint an accurate picture. 

[david555]

One thing i find strange is that about N Korea there is no news .....it passed my mind this corona virus is " designed " in a lab ...and someone did not closed the door properly .....very caution expressed.....????

 

But waived the thought ...as in such case some Nations would feel to react ....and that they dont like as that would be worse...????

Edited March 11, 2020 by david555

[worgeordie]

Donald,says its going away....so maybe nothing to worry about ?.

Lots of people seem worried sick about this Coronavirus,washing

hands,masturbating,washing hands....but think nothing about getting

on their bike,in their car or truck and sally forth onto Thai roads,without

a thought.there's the real killer.

regards worgeordie

[potless]

1 hour ago, NCC1701A said:

I am thinking Thailand attracts a certain type of tourist and Expat. Someone with a sense of adventure and is maybe quick to throw caution to the wind. I know I am one of those. Thailand as we all know has inherently dangerous roads and highways, but we are out there, everyday. Many of us put up with a lot of <deleted> and give up a higher standard of living to be here. But this is different. The virus is different.   

When you are out and about on roads etc, you can make decisions based on what you see. You cant see the virus so that may be unnerving. i refuse to worry about it but I am not going to seek it out either. it will find me if luck has it that way.

[NCC1701A]

BREAKING: Thailand is cancelling Visa Exemption for South Korea, Hong Kong & Italy. Also, no VOA for Bulgaria, Bhutan, China, Cyprus, Ethiopia, Fiji, Georgia, India, Kazakhstan, Malta, Mexico, Nauru, Papua New Guinea, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Taiwan, Uzbekistan & Vanuatu.

 

https://twitter.com/RichardBarrow/status/1237644303226241024

[david555]

2 minutes ago, NCC1701A said:

BREAKING: Thailand is cancelling Visa Exemption for South Korea, Hong Kong & Italy. Also, no VOA for Bulgaria, Bhutan, China, Cyprus, Ethiopia, Fiji, Georgia, India, Kazakhstan, Malta, Mexico, Nauru, Papua New Guinea, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Taiwan, Uzbekistan & Vanuatu.

 

https://twitter.com/RichardBarrow/status/1237644303226241024

That makes it not advisable to fly out of Thailand ...even having 1 year ret.ext. as we never can be sure to get re entry allowed , as in abcense some Thai measures could be taken , and not all of us have direct accomodation  waiting in home country ......strange unexpected  times indead now...????

[holy cow cm]

Yeah as I just traveled to the Philippines and back. Although it was a kittens walk to check out with the IO as there was nothing seriously going on for the most part - that is in really many checking stations that I saw. Only saw the one.

 

The biggest thing I did see was a huge, I mean huge long long line that was labelled something as Health check in just before you go into Immigration section. Could only presume these were all Chinese with their I am OK papers forged from the doctors or the other dicey countries that are hot spots. 

 

One thing you are correct on, is if you do get caught you are going to be shuffled off even if you don't have the virus, and I think this is the whole premise of your post and I will agree with you. that was the only point of concern as did not want to be quarantined. 

[onekoolguy]

1 hour ago, twocatsmac said:

This virus and others in recent history started in a country that spends billions of dollars every year on weapons and a space program. 

Let them get their greedy fingers out and solve what they’ve created, same goes for the rest of the so called super powers.

Yeah I agree. The Chinese should pay!

[from the home of CC]

 

 part of the podcast with Michael Osterholm, an infectious disease specialist and author that came out today, a lot of people just don't have a clue how bad this will get but they will find out very soon.. 

[faraday]

Really, I am tired of the hysteria that's being fuelled by the media. This C19 is not a Zombie apocalyptic plague, but as is apparent, is quite contagious.

 

What boils my urine, is the 'Super Spreader' label, which makes it look like some computer enemy.

 

I posed a question a few days ago:

 

How many people, with no significant health problems, who are fit & well, have died,as a direct result of contracting C19?

 

 

 

 

[from the home of CC]

1 minute ago, faraday said:

Really, I am tired of the hysteria that's being fuelled by the media. This C19 is not a Zombie apocalyptic plague, but as is apparent, is quite contagious.

 

What boils my urine, is the 'Super Spreader' label, which makes it look like some computer enemy.

 

I posed a question a few days ago:

 

How many people, with no significant health problems, who are fit & well, have died,as a direct result of contracting C19?

 

 

 

 

did you know obesity is considered an 'underlying' health issue when talking about severity with this bug? There are literally millions at risk.. 

[NCC1701A]

the issue in not so much about dying from the virus anymore.

 

 

Edited March 11, 2020 by NCC1701A

[bkk6060]

15 minutes ago, faraday said:

How many people, with no significant health problems, who are fit & well, have died,as a direct result of contracting C19?

Well, some have and that is all it takes.

[Lacessit]

2 minutes ago, NCC1701A said:

the issue in not so much about dying from the virus anymore.

 

 

95% of people who are infected will suffer nothing more than inconvenience. It's the other 5% who are in trouble, because a rapid spread means hospitals are swamped. Only so many beds to go around. There's no way of knowing whether you are in that 5% cohort, although the elderly and those with compromised immune systems are more at risk. IMO if you are a smoker, you are definitely in the firing line.

How do you like your chances of being in the 95%?

 

[bkk6060]

14 minutes ago, from the home of CC said:

obesity is considered an 'underlying' health issue when talking about severity with this bug?

That covers about 90% of the Expats here.

 

[david555]

Immigration officer on duty contracts corona at Suvharnabumi ....just now news

 

https://googleads.g.doubleclick.net/pagead/ads?client=ca-pub-8062882927723374&output=html&h=250&w=360&bih=464&biw=360&adx=0&ady=287&ga_vid=2117440208.1577239497&ga_sid=1583915691&ga_hid=771442018&slotname=3204460887&adk=536026045&url=https://forum.thaivisa.com/topic/1152829-immigration-officer-on-duty-at-suvarnabhumi-airport-contracts-covid-19-reports-thai-media/&frm=20&guci=2.2.0.0.2.2.0.0&eid=21064522,21065472,21065474,633794034&u_his=1&brdim=0,0,0,0,360,0,360,464,360,464&prev_fmts=360x250_0ads_al&format=fpkc_al_lp&kw_type=radlink&hl=en&rt=ChBeaKKsAA0KYQp9S5PaAsS-EgEgGghRzDXhBAl02SgBUhMIobPi4YGS6AIVCYVLBR2miA4UeAGCARUKEU1lZGljYWwgRmFjZSBNYXNrEgCCARYKEkltbWlncmF0aW9uIE9mZmljZRIAggEVChFMYWRpZXMgaW4gUGF0dGF5YRIAggEWChJDbGVhbmluZyBDb250cmFjdHMSAIIBFAoQSW1taWdyYXRpb24gTmV3cxIAiAEB&ad_type=text

[from the home of CC]

5 minutes ago, bkk6060 said:

That covers about 90% of the Expats here.

 

70 million Americans are obese, the implications are staggering.

[CGW]

2 hours ago, NCC1701A said:

"Normalcy bias, or normality bias, is a tendency for people to believe that things will always function the way they normally have functioned and therefore to underestimate both the likelihood of a disaster and its possible effects"

Bias or fallacy? there are ~12 common logical fallacies that the human species errs towards, need an example, look at typical TVF posts and try to convince the poster that he is making an error in his reasoning - wont work, most of us believe in "fallacies" to some extent and use them in our arguments to convince people that we are correct ????

False attribution is a commonly used fallacy, someone reads something by someone who they consider to be an expert and beyond reproach, they cannot accept that others don't believe the same as them! 

Or in my case:- Psychologist's fallacy – an observer presupposes the objectivity of their own perspective when analysing a behavioural event. ????

Edited March 11, 2020 by CGW

[faraday]

55 minutes ago, from the home of CC said:

did you know obesity is considered an 'underlying' health issue when talking about severity with this bug? There are literally millions at risk.. 

Depends on how obese.

 

 

[faraday]

43 minutes ago, bkk6060 said:

Well, some have and that is all it takes.

But what percentage, & how many will die.

 

 

[from the home of CC]

3 minutes ago, faraday said:

Depends on how obese.

 

 

you're right, there are degrees..

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Over 70 million adults in U.S. are obese (35 million men and 35 million women). 99 million are overweight (45 million women and 54 million men). NHANES 2016 statistics showed that about 39.6% of American adults were obese. ... Including the obese, 71.6% of all American adults age 20 and above were overweight.

 

 

[Stevemercer]

People can only take common sense precautions and try to keep themselves informed. Social media thrives on trends and speculation and it is sometimes difficult to glean out the truth.

 

For example, my wife believes that Thai people are not so likely to get the virus because they eat a lot of chili. It doesn't matter how many times I try to explain that the virus affects the respiratory system.

 

We had a few drizzly days last week and my wife told me to stay out of the rain because the virus could come down with the rain.

 

A local restaurant was closed for 14 days by the authorities, as a precaution, because a lady who had recently returned from South Korea had eaten there. Now the lady had a certificate clearing her of the disease, but that didn't matter to the locals.

 

I recently returned from Australia and my wife insisted I take a 14 day 'self quarantine'. Despite the fact she has been in close and intimate contact with me she does not think there is any need for her to quarantine herself.

 

Me, myself, I don't think I have the virus although I variously experience sore throats, vague nasal congestion, heat flushes and sneezes. How much is perceived or real I don't really know. No symptoms lasts longer than a few hours and most of the time I feel fine.

 

In Italy, doctors are prioritising who lives and dies because hospitals are so stretched. Generally they will leave the elderly to die and use the limited artificial breathing equipment on the young who are more likely to live. That is why the number of deaths in Italy, as a proportion of those suffering with the virus, is so high.

 

I suspect the same scenario would repeat in Thailand if it gets that far.

[rumak]

1 minute ago, CGW said:

Bias or fallacy? there are ~12 common logical fallacies that the human species errs towards, need an example, look at typical TVF posts and try to convince the poster that he is making an error in his reasoning - wont work, most of us believe in "fallacies" to some extent and use them in our arguments to convince people that we are correct ????

False attribution is a commonly used fallacy, someone reads something by someone who they consider to be an expert and beyond reproach, they cannot accept that others don't believe the same as them! 

I have never, in a post, stated " it is a well-known FACT" ..... or something similar to that statement which implies... NO, actually it makes what one says sound beyond question.

What I do say from time to time is that from MY experience I believe....     

This forum is interesting to get ideas and opinions from others that loosely fit into the group we commonly call expats.  Who are or have lived in Thailand.   The posts run the full gamut,

some entertaining or funny,  some that I agree with and others I don't.

As for accepting what others have to say....haha...   you can take it from the expert Rumak

that for many here this is mostly an opportunity to seek approval or vent their frustrations.

Bias, fallacies, truths.........  are in the eyes of the beholder.   Are forums  just another example of the world at large ?  Where might is right.

 

 

 

 

 

[marko kok prong]

Well i have not been to my local bar for weeks,i thought being a smoker would actually help,so i was wrong on that,i am now really nervous about going to Pattaya to re- new my visa, you can't seem to get any masks around here.

[FarFlungFalang]

1 hour ago, faraday said:

How many people, with no significant health problems, who are fit & well, have died,as a direct result of contracting C19?

Nobody knows because it's just started.How many will have their lives cut short by 5-10-20 even 30 years by this?Do you know?