Anyone from View Talay 2? What the buy/sell market there now?

[Leaver]

4 hours ago, mike111 said:

The con arguments posted above have several logical flaws:

1. A condo purchase is not always just an investment but it's often done to provide a home, instead of being a long-term hotel guest, which is essentially what a renter.

 

2. Renting makes sense when property prices are high since then financing the purchase can be very expensive and negates any possible savings gained over renting. Sq.m prices in NY are around 14K USD/sq.m while in VT2 they're around 1160 USD/sq.m, so it's about 10x cheaper, while the unit price is around 41K USD which is something most people could probably finance even if they couldn't afford it outright.

https://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/city_price_rankings?itemId=100

After living there for several years one can sell the unit, even below purchase price, and still end up saving money compared to renting. As an example:

Say a typical monthly condo rental in VT2A/B is 10K baht so yearly is 120K. Over 5years it's 600K baht, that's 46% of the purchase price and is just wasted money. The price chart in hipflat shows VT2 prices have fluctuated around 1300USD/sqm +/- 150USD (except for two peaks where it reached 1600/sqm) during the last 10 years, namely, around a 10% change:

https://www.hipflat.com/projects/view-talay-2-gnaaza

Costs comparison:

Option 1: Buy at 1.4M, live there for 5 years, sell at 10% below purchase (assuming no price increase): total cost is around 140K THB

Option 2: Rent for 5 years: total cost is 600K THB

 

Plus during the time you own the unit you can rennovate to your liking, install a modern kitchen, etc.. It's a home, not a hotel room. Again my assumption is that a person is planning to live in the unit for an  extensive period. If it's just for occasional visits than of course renting is more sensible.

 

I wouldn't buy in one of the recent projects since the build quality is horrendous and the unit sizes are around 35% smaller to VT2. People buying there pay more for less, and are just bearing the costs of inflated land prices. Plus VT2 has a track record of being consistently well-maintained. It's anyone's guess how these new mega projects would look like in a few years.

 

I have a few issues with your post.

 

Firstly, you do not mention the earnings the 1.4 million baht make, safely, back in your home country, whilst you are renting here in Pattaya.  Pre virus, I was earning round 6%.  1.4 million baht at 6% is around 7000 baht per month.  This effectively can be viewed as subsiding your rent, so, the 600k rent isn't really 600k.  Your 1.4 million baht is liquid, and not tied up in brick and mortar in Thailand.

 

Secondly, and most importantly, can YOU guarantee the sale in 5 years time, even at a 10% loss of purchase price?  No, I didn't think so.  In fact, can you guarantee any sale at all.  No, I didn't think so.

 

So many expats are now trapped here.  They would like to leave, but can not sell.  There are just no buyers, so they have to stay, and with the high cost of living here now, the strong baht, and their weak home currency, they are experiencing a big reduction in lifestyle. 

 

The other issue I have with your post is, how do you know what Pattaya will look like in 5 years time?  We are seeing a lot of bars / restaurants / cafes etc that cter for westerners closing, or for sale. (pre virus) 

 

Prior to the virus, western tourists were in rapid decline, with Chinese and Indian being the main tourists.  5 years from now, you could be living in little China and / or little India.  Pattaya may be vastly different in 5 years time.  As if there wasn't already an oversupply of properties on the market, there certainly will be as the demographic changes here.

 

One only has to look at Sihanoukville in Cambodia to see how the Chinese changed the town in a small space of time.  It was happening slowly here, and while the virus has halted that change, it will return.  

 

I'm a little younger than your average retiree.  The old term "rent is dead money" may be applicable in one's home country, but it should not be applied to Thailand.  Anything can change here, at a whim.  Visa laws, a pig farm is built next door, Thai company nominees enforcement etc.  A lot of posters are telling of their Thai property experience from years ago.  It's true, people made money in the booming 80's and 90's in Thailand, but those days are long gone.  It's not the investment that it once was. 

 

Another consideration is poor construction materials and methods.

 

The recent issue with condo's, is they are being used as illegal hotels for daily rentals, and not for a single person, or a couple, but for 6 or more in one condo for their holiday.  It was happening pre virus, and will return. So, you buy a condo to live a peaceful retirement, and you end up not even being able to use the swimming pool because it is rammed with tourists.

 

In a country that effetively does not offer residency or citizenship to immigrants, renting is not dead money.  Many owners now wish they had rented.

[jacko45k]

15 hours ago, mike111 said:

I doubt there will 37-41 sqm studios in VT2A/B going for 1M or less. They were going for about 1.6M 2-3 years ago so a 40% doesn't make sense, even with the strong Baht and the Covid19.

 

I'm guessing 1.4M, give or take say 0.5M, is currently where most deals are settled.

 

But that means 0.9M is a possibility.... 

[Curt1591]

https://www.thailand-property.com/condo/3326/view-talay-2

[Airalee]

5 hours ago, mike111 said:

The con arguments posted above have several logical flaws:

1. A condo purchase is not always just an investment but it's often done to provide a home, instead of being a long-term hotel guest, which is essentially what a renter.

 

2. Renting makes sense when property prices are high since then financing the purchase can be very expensive and negates any possible savings gained over renting. Sq.m prices in NY are around 14K USD/sq.m while in VT2 they're around 1160 USD/sq.m, so it's about 10x cheaper, while the unit price is around 41K USD which is something most people could probably finance even if they couldn't afford it outright.

https://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/city_price_rankings?itemId=100

After living there for several years one can sell the unit, even below purchase price, and still end up saving money compared to renting. As an example:

Say a typical monthly condo rental in VT2A/B is 10K baht so yearly is 120K. Over 5years it's 600K baht, that's 46% of the purchase price and is just wasted money. The price chart in hipflat shows VT2 prices have fluctuated around 1300USD/sqm +/- 150USD (except for two peaks where it reached 1600/sqm) during the last 10 years, namely, around a 10% change:

https://www.hipflat.com/projects/view-talay-2-gnaaza

Costs comparison:

Option 1: Buy at 1.4M, live there for 5 years, sell at 10% below purchase (assuming no price increase): total cost is around 140K THB

Option 2: Rent for 5 years: total cost is 600K THB

 

Plus during the time you own the unit you can rennovate to your liking, install a modern kitchen, etc.. It's a home, not a hotel room. Again my assumption is that a person is planning to live in the unit for an  extensive period. If it's just for occasional visits than of course renting is more sensible.

 

I wouldn't buy in one of the recent projects since the build quality is horrendous and the unit sizes are around 35% smaller to VT2. People buying there pay more for less, and are just bearing the costs of inflated land prices. Plus VT2 has a track record of being consistently well-maintained. It's anyone's guess how these new mega projects would look like in a few years.

 

1.  You used 10k as the rental rate.  Here is one listed for 8k and I would be willing to bet that the owner would accept 7k.

 

https://www.hipflat.co.th/en/listings/chonburi-condo-oqcymbgl

 

2.  For purchasing, you did not include the cost of entry and exit.  Transfer fees, realtor commissions.

 

3.  You failed to mention opportunity cost on the purchase money

 

4.  You failed to mention homeowner dues (monthly common fees), or special assessment costs such as the building paint job and swimming pool re-tiling that my landlord just had to pay. 

 

5.  You failed to mention the cost of replacing refrigerators, air conditioners etc etc which are borne by the landlord in a rental.

 

6.  It’s all about the P/E ratio.  As the condos become more expensive, the P/E gets worse.  My condo would sell for 3.214x the View Talay unit but I am only paying 1.9x the rent (using your numbers). As condos become even more expensive, the P/E becomes substantially worse (and more in favor of renting)

 

*I am currently in the market for purchasing a condo myself so spare me any “bitter renter”, “can’t afford”, “never gonna buy anyways” comments that seem to get thrown around here so much.

[rhodie]

^^^^^^^^ Good synopsis.

[Airalee]

1 minute ago, rhodie said:

^^^^^^^^ Good synopsis.

Thanks....and one thing that I forgot to add is that I will most likely be bailing my rental as now, there are much better deals to be had...making the P/E ratio even worse.

 

And also forgot to add that I have always replaced the crappy sofa and mattresses that come in rentals so that’s another BS argument for owning.
 

Still looking to buy of course, but I consider that to be “dead money”.

[Airalee]

7 minutes ago, rhodie said:

^^^^^^^^ Good synopsis.

And to further show the disasterous P/E ratio in favor of renting...although I’m currently mostly focused on HuaHin for a purchase, I haven’t ruled out Pattaya.  The unit I am looking at renting there (58 sqm, unobstructed dead on water view) has an asking rent of 20k and an asking sales price of 8.1 million.

[newnative]

6 hours ago, chrisandsu said:

The second you compared NY city to Pattaya was the minute your post lost its credibility . Pattaya should be comparable with somewhere like North Dakota but with pollution . 

     The poster might have used a USA beach city with a year-round warm climate for his price comparison but the conclusion would have been the same--it's much cheaper to own here.  And, it's not just the initial purchase that is cheaper; the monthly condo fees are much less here, as well.  Plus no property taxes.  Could I own an ocean-view condo anywhere in America?  Not likely. The price would be too high for my budget, the monthly condo fee and taxes too high, and I'd likely have to have expensive hurricane insurance.

     As the poster pointed out, renting makes financial sense for those here short-term.  I will add that many prefer renting even if they are here long-term, as it fits their lifestyle and how they budget and invest their money.  But, for some expats planning to be in Thailand for years, buying a condo can also make financial sense, with the added advantage of having your own space, with your own things, to decorate as you wish-which is the biggest reason I own, whatever country I am in..

[19DL86]

Someone posted that being a renter here was like being "an all year round hotel guest" - surely that is what we are and ALL we are in this country.  We are only "guests" whose stay is on the agreement and judgement of I.O.

 

In fact I d feel safer, more secure in my contractual obligations, more appreciated and perhaps respected as a HOTEL GUEST.

Edited March 26, 2020 by 19DL86

[chrisandsu]

1 hour ago, newnative said:

     The poster might have used a USA beach city with a year-round warm climate for his price comparison but the conclusion would have been the same--it's much cheaper to own here.  And, it's not just the initial purchase that is cheaper; the monthly condo fees are much less here, as well.  Plus no property taxes.  Could I own an ocean-view condo anywhere in America?  Not likely. The price would be too high for my budget, the monthly condo fee and taxes too high, and I'd likely have to have expensive hurricane insurance.

     As the poster pointed out, renting makes financial sense for those here short-term.  I will add that many prefer renting even if they are here long-term, as it fits their lifestyle and how they budget and invest their money.  But, for some expats planning to be in Thailand for years, buying a condo can also make financial sense, with the added advantage of having your own space, with your own things, to decorate as you wish-which is the biggest reason I own, whatever country I am in..

Just look above . Guy is talking about 8.1 mill to buy a condo or 20 k a month in rent . Unless you are intending on living there for 30 years then renting is a no brainier . Pattaya should be looked at about the same as some crappy beach town in Spain . Prices are not a lot different for the same build quality . 

[Airalee]

1 hour ago, newnative said:

Could I own an ocean-view condo anywhere in America?

Easily.  Maybe not on the Pacific or Atlantic coasts, but the Gulf of Mexico, from Florida to Texas has plenty of options that are far less expensive and with homestead exemptions in both Texas and Florida, the property taxes are quite low when comparing small condos.  The higher homeowners dues will offset the costs but the building quality is better.

 

It’s not the cost of real estate that scares me away from the US but rather, the cost of healthcare as a 51 year old.  At 65, with Medicare, the US would become a no brainer if just comparing prices.  It’s the people and political correctness run amok that would bug the <deleted> out of me.

[Airalee]

13 minutes ago, chrisandsu said:

Just look above . Guy is talking about 8.1 mill to buy a condo or 20 k a month in rent . Unless you are intending on living there for 30 years then renting is a no brainier . Pattaya should be looked at about the same as some crappy beach town in Spain . Prices are not a lot different for the same build quality . 

Just so you know I’m not bull<deleted>ting...

 

(20k rent)...contacted the agent regarding sales price and was quoted 8.1million

 

https://www.hipflat.com/listings/chonburi-condo-tptgvmjx
 

same condo with a different agency (21k rent and 8million sales price)

https://www.hipflat.com/listings/chonburi-condo-efthpahj

 

I can find these horrible P/E ratios all day long.  Maybe not for low end condos such as View Talay 2 or Nirun, but for nicer places...easy peasy.
 

 

[tlandtday]

3 minutes ago, Airalee said:

Just so you know I’m not bull<deleted>ting...

 

(20k rent)...contacted the agent regarding sales price and was quoted 8.1million

 

https://www.hipflat.com/listings/chonburi-condo-tptgvmjx
 

same condo with a different agency (21k rent and 8million sales price)

https://www.hipflat.com/listings/chonburi-condo-efthpahj

 

I can find these horrible P/E ratios all day long.  Maybe not for low end condos such as View Talay 2 or Nirun, but for nicer places...easy peasy.
 

 

absolutely ridiculous... a double bed and a pool with trees to hit when you are doing laps... genius architect only matched by the genius of this renter lol

[Airalee]

1 minute ago, tlandtday said:

absolutely ridiculous... a double bed and a pool with trees to hit when you are doing laps... genius architect only matched by the genius of this renter lol

The buyer would truly be a “short bus” candidate.

[tlandtday]

1 minute ago, Airalee said:

The buyer would truly be a “short bus” candidate.

If the buyer were in a think tank he would be standing in the shallow end.

[Nyezhov]

8 hours ago, chrisandsu said:

Pattaya should be comparable with somewhere like North Dakota but with pollution .

You ever been to a strip joint in North Dakota?

[chrisandsu]

11 minutes ago, Airalee said:

Just so you know I’m not bull<deleted>ting...

 

(20k rent)...contacted the agent regarding sales price and was quoted 8.1million

 

https://www.hipflat.com/listings/chonburi-condo-tptgvmjx
 

same condo with a different agency (21k rent and 8million sales price)

https://www.hipflat.com/listings/chonburi-condo-efthpahj

 

I can find these horrible P/E ratios all day long.  Maybe not for low end condos such as View Talay 2 or Nirun, but for nicer places...easy peasy.
 

 

That’s crazy . As I said it’s a complete no brainier to rent at those returns . 

[chrisandsu]

8 minutes ago, Airalee said:

The buyer would truly be a “short bus” candidate.

Or trying to impress Nung . 

[Airalee]

2 minutes ago, chrisandsu said:

Or trying to impress Nung . 

Nung would probably have better financial acumen....therefore wouldn’t be very impressed.  She would like the “gullible mug” factor however.

Edited March 26, 2020 by Airalee

[chrisandsu]

10 minutes ago, Nyezhov said:

You ever been to a strip joint in North Dakota?

Last I heard Dakota was where the last big oil rush in America was happening . The girls were moving from Vegas to work in Dakota . So In short yes ! 

[david555]

3 hours ago, jacko45k said:

But that means 0.9M is a possibility.... 

And in first order the company form ones ...

[chrisandsu]

3 minutes ago, Airalee said:

Nung would probably have better financial acumen....therefore wouldn’t be very impressed.  She would like the “gullible mug” factor however.

Especially if the condo has to go into the Thai quota ????

[baansgr]

Nobody selling and nobody buying. That's the Buy/Sell market. Not even sure if land offices are still open...I've seen some great bargains coming up all over and still no takers...each owners circumstance is different. If you really want to buy one, make a flyer with your budget and stick them under every door...see what response you get.

[19DL86]

I currently rent a nice modern 3 bed home it's 4-5 years old, in a nice quiet secure village with pool gym etc.  It was unfurnished that suited me as I had already all my own stuff from the property I sold. I have redecorated it to my own tastes and styles.  Been here over a year, renewed for another 1 plus 1. at fixed 12,000Bt per month.

 

The property when built was 3mil Bt, was on the market for 4.2mil couldn't sell, rental was 15,000 couldn't rent.  So converted to my home currency - its the same as a 1 bedroom apartment of mine which I rent out and have been getting equivalent of  25,000 Bt per month for the past 4 years. My investment up until this s*** fest were returning on average 8%+ pa.  

 

That's a no brainer.

[Nyezhov]

12 minutes ago, chrisandsu said:

Last I heard Dakota was where the last big oil rush in America was happening . The girls were moving from Vegas to work in Dakota . So In short yes ! 

That oil rush has been quiet for some time, and trailer chicken shack strip joints at with trafficed chicks $100 a pop make Pattaya look like a romantic dream. If you want to go cheap, you can go to the res. Now I loooooove the Dakotas and truly look down on Pattaya but your analogy is waaay misplaced.

[bkk6060]

On 3/25/2020 at 9:19 AM, Henryford said:

Anyone offering me under 1 million i would send to Nirun, where they obviously belong.

????

I think now could be one of the greatest condo buying opportunities ever.

I have an agent friend, but check the sales sites.  There are actually close to 500+ properties now for sale one million or less.  And, that is just asking prices.

Virus

No Chinese 

Economies on the brink

Foreigners forced to close businesses

 

I do not want to go on, but it is desperate times some people want to cash out just to survive.

 

The biggest issue may be actually finding a willing agent, being mobile at various places, or having people opening their properties to strangers.

 

 

[19DL86]

"The biggest issue may be actually finding a willing agent, being mobile at various places, or having people opening their properties to stranger."

 

Absolutely correct bk6060, happening already - 2-3 days ago agents of mine back home sent out generic emails to say exactly this.

[chrisandsu]

15 minutes ago, Nyezhov said:

That oil rush has been quiet for some time, and trailer chicken shack strip joints at with trafficed chicks $100 a pop make Pattaya look like a romantic dream. If you want to go cheap, you can go to the res. Now I loooooove the Dakotas and truly look down on Pattaya but your analogy is waaay misplaced.

Hold on ! are you saying issarns finest are a step up ? ???? by the way my grandad used to play for Bermondsey’s finest .

[essox essox]

On 3/24/2020 at 1:13 PM, Gabor said:

I live here.... 1.3-1.7 million the asked prices.

about right i would guess, but would think can get a little cheaper by bartering

[newnative]

48 minutes ago, chrisandsu said:

Just look above . Guy is talking about 8.1 mill to buy a condo or 20 k a month in rent . Unless you are intending on living there for 30 years then renting is a no brainier . Pattaya should be looked at about the same as some crappy beach town in Spain . Prices are not a lot different for the same build quality . 

    My partner and I have been here nearly 10 years and could end up being here 30.  Obviously, we don't find Pattaya 'crappy' and, if we did, we would have moved somewhere else long ago--we've made an art of moving quickly and frequently as we've sold condos out from under us.  It didn't take us long to decide that Rayong wasn't for us and move on.  

    The everyday, normal things we did in America we do here, in nice facilities, as well:  going to the movies, going grocery shopping, going to the mall, exercising at the gym, swimming, socializing with friends, pursuing hobbies, doing routine dental and healthcare, eating out at a variety of restaurants, taking trips, etc.   Yes, we could rent here and I have said lots of times on T/V, including today, that renting works very well for many.  It's just not for us, for a variety of reasons.