Trump considers reopening U.S. economy despite coronavirus spread

[bristolboy]

Just now, lannarebirth said:

Because China has a tendency to inflate numbers or minimize numbers according to how it serves the needs of the party in power. Most economic numbers that come out of China are false. Everyone knows they are false, so people who need to know what's actually going on look for proxies for those numbers. For instance. most peope don't believe their GDP numbers, so the look at electricity consumption as a proxy for production. That's whay many factories kept their lights on and machines running around the clock during this recent epidemic there, even though there were no workers and no production..

What have China's economic numbers got to do with this? This is about the status of the covid pandemic in China. As I've repeatedly pointed out, countries that have copied China's methods report similar results? The only way your claim would make sense is if Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea, and Hong Kong were also lying. Are you maintaining that is the case?

[soalbundy]

No worries, America isn't badly affected and everything is under control, he gave himself 10/10 points for his managing of the situation so everything is hunky dory and it's back to the golf course.

[lannarebirth]

5 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

What have China's economic numbers got to do with this? This is about the status of the covid pandemic in China. As I've repeatedly pointed out, countries that have copied China's methods report similar results? The only way your claim would make sense is if Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea, and Hong Kong were also lying. Are you maintaining that is the case?

 

Except for widespread testing and social distancing, which I applaud, I don't see any other country copying China's draconian methods. I think those countries did copy China to a certain extent but I didn't see any videoes of beatings or citywide fumigations coming out of there. More smart, less draconian I'd say.

[LomSak27]

On 3/24/2020 at 6:23 AM, Cryingdick said:

We can't stay home hoping for government checks. The current batch of checks is  a bridge until April what happens in May? Again nobody is forced to go out. I can't see we have any choice. Businesses have it hard now, but once they close they won't simply pop back.

If this was based on something more than Donald Trumps watching a FOX news presenter, & concerns for his re election, I would not have a problem with it. But I also know that is not true.

 

Where is Dr Fauci?

[samran]

5 hours ago, heybruce said:

I stated, and provided the math using your numbers, that the mortality for swine flu was a small fraction of that for normal flu, and a fiftieth of the estimated mortality of Covid-19.  That's why comparing the national response to Covid-19 to the swine flu response is nonsense.

 

You're not a numbers person, are you?

He’s clearly not. I showed him a link to the whole spectrum of actual data. There is a range and the US falls slap bang in the middle. 
 

But you known these blokes. Data - real data - is ‘fake news’ for them. 

[cmarshall]

19 minutes ago, lannarebirth said:

Because China has a tendency to inflate numbers or minimize numbers according to how it serves the needs of the party in power. Most economic numbers that come out of China are false. Everyone knows they are false, so people who need to know what's actually going on look for proxies for those numbers. For instance. most peope don't believe their GDP numbers, so the look at electricity consumption as a proxy for production. That's whay many factories kept their lights on and machines running around the clock during this recent epidemic there, even though there were no workers and no production..

You're missing the forest for the trees.  Yes, some of China's GDP numbers have been suspect over the years leading to the analysis of electricity consumption as a proxy.  But you don't doubt that the Chinese experienced extraordinary and persistent growth since Deng Xiao Ping, do you?  

 

The fact that the Chinese fudged some numbers about something in the past does not mean that every single number coming out of China is a lie and that therefore we can have no idea what is going on with the pandemic there.  The Chinese got it under control and now they are beginning to relax the constraints on a trial basis.  There are enough people on the ground there that we cannot doubt that basic picture.

 

By contrast, the US count of Covid infections is absolutely known to be vastly too low.  Whether the failure to test is by design or incompetence hardly matters in the long run.  Now that we know that the Trump administration has requested that state labor departments not report their current unemployment numbers, will you never believe any statistic from the states or federal govt again?

Edited March 25, 2020 by cmarshall

[samran]

5 minutes ago, soalbundy said:

No worries, America isn't badly affected and everything is under control, he gave himself 10/10 points for his managing of the situation so everything is hunky dory and it's back to the golf course.

I was listening to an interview the other day where the Donald could help but pat himself on the back. His words were:

 

’No one has been working harder on this than Dr (Anthony) Fauci..... No one, except Vice president Pence.......(pause).....and of course myself.”

 

The ego on him knows no bounds.  

[lannarebirth]

1 minute ago, cmarshall said:

You're missing the forest for the trees.  Yes, some of China's GDP numbers have been suspect over the years leading to the analysis of electricity consumption as a proxy.  But you don't doubt that the Chinese experienced extraordinary and persistent growth since Deng Xiao Ping, do you?  

 

The fact that the Chinese fudged some numbers about something in the past does not mean that every single number coming out of China is a lie and that therefore we can have no idea what is going on with the pandemic there.  The Chinese got it under control and now they are beginning to relax the constraints on a trail basis.  There are enough people on the ground there that we cannot doubt that basic picture.

 

By contrast, the US count of Covid infections is absolutely known to be vastly too low.  Whether the failure to test is by design or incompetence hardly matters in the long run.  Now that we know that the Trump administration has requested that state labor departments not report their current unemployment numbers, will you never believe any statistic from the states or federal govt again?

 

I agree with you. They clearly got a handle on it using whatever methods they employed. I just don't think one can draw any clear statistical conclusions from the data they chose to present. And as you say, same goes for America given the dearth of testing.

[samran]

2 hours ago, bristolboy said:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8146515/U-S-potential-coronavirus-epicenter-says-WHO.html

Donald doing everything more bigly than China! 
 

The fact that the source is the daily mail means that the chest thumpers can’t deny it! 
 

The US has 50,000 cases this morning Thai time, up from 33,000 cases two days ago. This thing doubles every three days. They’ll be passing China (88k cases) in a few days. 
 

Thanks to the Donald 

Edited March 25, 2020 by samran

[cmarshall]

4 minutes ago, lannarebirth said:

 

Except for widespread testing and social distancing, which I applaud, I don't see any other country copying China's draconian methods. I think those countries did copy China to a certain extent but I didn't see any videoes of beatings or citywide fumigations coming out of there. More smart, less draconian I'd say.

If you want to understand what the Chinese program was, which I have already recounted, look up the interviews with Dr. Bruce Aylward, the deputy director of WHO, who spent two weeks in China during February.  Other than the total quarantining of Wuhan and Hubei, the Chinese program was the same as that of S. Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, and Hong Kong: test, compulsory isolation of positives, and contact tracing.  

[bristolboy]

5 minutes ago, lannarebirth said:

 

Except for widespread testing and social distancing, which I applaud, I don't see any other country copying China's draconian methods. I think those countries did copy China to a certain extent but I didn't see any videoes of beatings or citywide fumigations coming out of there. More smart, less draconian I'd say.

But social distancing and widespread testing are the crucial factors in beating the virus. ANd most countries were slow to do it. And in most  cases, particularly as regards testing, still are. So what's your point?

[bristolboy]

2 minutes ago, samran said:

Donald doing everything more bigly than China! 
 

The fact that the source is the daily mail means that the chest thumpers can’t deny it! 

USA! USA! USA!

[UbonThani]

39 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

Why would you say that's a reasonable view given that countries that have emulated the Chinese approach also report a much lower rate of infection?

They had the virus to start. Lots more initial contact. Lots more close people.

[lannarebirth]

2 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

But social distancing and widespread testing are the crucial factors in beating the virus. ANd most countries were slow to do it. And in most  cases, particularly as regards testing, still are. So what's your point?

 

I guess I was rather affected by the beatings some people took. I hope they're ok.

[metisdead]

Some posts have been edited or removed for being in violation of the following forum rule:

 

14) You will not post any copyrighted material except as fair use laws apply (as in the case of news articles). Please only post a link, the headline and the first three sentences.

 

Some troll posts have been removed. 

[heybruce]

54 minutes ago, Chiphigh said:

Sure, we should have been doing this for the last 10 years, where was your concern then? 

 

Or is it just another orange man bad thing? 

The economy hasn't been strong for ten years.  Governments should spend money to help the economy out when it is performing below capacity--a recession--and save money when the economy is doing well.

 

It's not a difficult concept, but one not shared by Republicans.  The Republican thinking is that deficits only matter when a Democrat is in the White House.

[Cryingdick]

3 minutes ago, heybruce said:

The economy hasn't been strong for ten years.  Governments should spend money to help the economy out when it is performing below capacity--a recession--and save money when the economy is doing well.

 

It's not a difficult concept, but one not shared by Republicans.  The Republican thinking is that deficits only matter when a Democrat is in the White House.

 

Maybe the economy hasn't been strong for you in ten years. However that is not the case for everybody.

[bristolboy]

Just now, Cryingdick said:

 

Maybe the economy hasn't been strong for you in ten years. However that is not the case for everybody.

It's been mostly great for the top 10%. Not so much for others.

[lannarebirth]

8 minutes ago, Cryingdick said:

 

Maybe the economy hasn't been strong for you in ten years. However that is not the case for everybody.

 

While it is true there has been a 10 year economic expansion, it could not be said that the economy was ever strong. A strong economy includes a virtuous cycle whereby all participnats are elevated. This was the weakest economic expansion in the post WW 2 era and it has left 10's of millions of people one paycheck away from homelessness. At least they'll have access to affordable healthcare then, once they've lost everything. What a system!

Edited March 25, 2020 by lannarebirth

[Cryingdick]

1 minute ago, lannarebirth said:

 

While it is true there has been a 10 year economic expansion, it could not be said that the economy was ever strong. A strong economy includes a virtuous cycle whereby all participnats are elevated. This was the weakest economic expansion in the post WW 2 era and it has left 10's of millions of people one paycheck away from homelessness. At least they'll have access to good healthcare then, if they've lost everything. What a system!

 

25% of millennials have managed to save $100,000. The biggest transfer of wealth in history from the Boomers is about to happen. It's no country for the old.

[Logosone]

6 hours ago, heybruce said:

Good idea; self-isolate until there are enough test kits, medical staff, protective gear, etc. to determine who is infected and isolate them.

 

Unfortunately we don't have those kits, staff and gear, and it's unclear when we will.  So until then limit movement to critical services.

 

You rather miss the point. 

 

If herd immunity means so many people are infected and immune that the virus can not spread any longer then this is a desirable goal.

 

Opening a country for business would achieve herd immunity quicker and end the spread of the virus sooner. Therefore self-isolation could be counter-productive and drag out the desired goal of herd immunity.

[lannarebirth]

1 minute ago, Cryingdick said:

 

25% of millennials have managed to save $100,000. The biggest transfer of wealth in history from the Boomers is about to happen. It's no country for the old.

Sadly for you, the Boomers  will cough up that money about the time you become the age the Boomers are now. You can go on a nice cruise.

[Eric Loh]

Move over Italy. US will soon be the next corona virus epicenter. Time to build the wall to protect the world from USA. 

[Cryingdick]

1 minute ago, lannarebirth said:

Sadly for you, the Boomers  will cough up that money about the time you become the age the Boomers are now. You can go on a nice cruise.

 

I am Gen X. Loads of Boomers are about to put out on the pack ice. I am not expecting an inheritance. I can live in my own country and prosper. Swoosh and a decent flush.

[Cryingdick]

2 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

Move over Italy. US will soon be the next corona virus epicenter. Time to build the wall to protect the world from USA. 

Where do we start?

[bristolboy]

8 minutes ago, Logosone said:

 

You rather miss the point. 

 

If herd immunity means so many people are infected and immune that the virus can not spread any longer then this is a desirable goal.

 

Opening a country for business would achieve herd immunity quicker and end the spread of the virus sooner. Therefore self-isolation could be counter-productive and drag out the desired goal of herd immunity.

It would also overwhelm the medical system and result in a lot more deaths.

[Eric Loh]

1 minute ago, Cryingdick said:

Where do we start?

Around the WH, Mar-a-logo for a start ?

[Logosone]

10 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

It would also overwhelm the medical system and result in a lot more deaths.

We can be pretty sure the medical systems of the world, including the US, will be overwhelmed whatever happens. The only possible exceptions are the German, SKorean and Japanese health systems. The rest will have to go through panic mode like Italy, Spain and the UK soon

 

The number of deaths, of course, will be finite, there is only so much population. The same number of people will die either way, as our governments seem to be unable to test, identify and isolate the nececssary numbers.

 

Basically what you're saying is that we should all self-isolate to do the health services a favour. 

 

The problem is that self-isolation will mean herd immunity comes slower, so this is all dragged out.

[FritsSikkink]

8 hours ago, Puchaiyank said:

Absolutely nothing...what is your point?

Don't worry if you don't understand.

[Langsuan Man]

4 minutes ago, Logosone said:

The problem is that self-isolation will mean herd immunity comes slower, so this is all dragged out.

We are far past the point where any herd immunity will help us out