is Thailand aiming for 'Herd Immunity'?

[SometimezaGreatNotion]

12 minutes ago, petedk said:

1 hour ago, Canuck1966 said:

I live in a small village near the beach Chaam and the tannoy last night told everyone to stay inside as a woman from 7/11 had died of Whu flu

Strange because the announcement of another death says it is a 70 year old male from Samut Prakarn.

If what you say is true then maybe there are more deaths than announced.

Humans are very prone to base-rate fallacy in their thinking. Since Thailand has almost 50,000 deaths per year from influenza/pneumonia without COVID-19, that must be kept in mind when espousing panic-conspiracy theories based on rumor.

Edited March 24, 2020 by SometimezaGreatNotion

[from the home of CC]

 I guess Trudeau decided "unconsciously"  lol to let the country get infected prior to large scale testing also right? and the UK? That description actually fits that thought line so much more than here ..

[petedk]

They are now saying on TV that 4 people have died

[natway09]

Interesting read but nothing we did not already know.

The balancing act is basically summed up by your "I don't know"

Give me a yell in a month. My wife smashed my crystal ball

[lemonjelly]

You think there’s a plan?!

 

Edited March 24, 2020 by lemonjelly

[wasabi]

Whether consciously or not I think Herd immunity is the only way out for Thailand. They plug one avenue for social gathering and people find another. The vast majority seem to think there are moments the virus isn't paying attention. As long as they social distance and wear a mask while walking or at an ATM it's not necessary to do so while waiting in line for food (In their minds). Every where I go I see clusters of people packed together. Sneaking a chance to sit together at the table and share drinks and food. Yes it's less than before but still ubiquitous. The uniformity of Thai culture can be very charming at times but is deadly when independent thought and basic understanding of science is required. It is cheap to live here for a reason. The country relies on factory work and tourism rather than STEM careers for a reason. There is no free lunch. The virus does not care about Face. The virus doesn't care that you are wearing your face mask on your chin while you wipe your face just for a few seconds. The only savings grace is I am not seeing a high death count (yet) I hope it stays that way because there likely will be millions infected. It was similar with HIV until they were forced to take it serious. I live here and it gives me no pleasure to arrive at this conclusion but that is how I see it.

Edited March 24, 2020 by wasabi

[Chazar]

9 hours ago, Drax said:

Someone I know died of coronavirus + bacterial infection last night here in Thailand.... Not on news yet. He had been in ITC for 10 days now. Man this is getting serious. He did work on a nightclub. I don’t wanna mention the name due to defamation laws but it’s not the thonglor one. This means this virus is more spreading than we think. 

age and  any underlying problems?

[tifino]

Herd Immunity might not work with the thais;

 - as they don't eat bats

( well at least not the ones, that are not half caste chinese)

[Drax]

.

Edited March 24, 2020 by Drax

[saengd]

I think this is probably my answer as to why the rate of spread was so low in Thailand during the early months, as compared to Europe subsequently, assuming of course it was the same strain of the virus.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8143727/High-temperatures-humidity-significantly-slow-spread-coronavirus.html

Edited March 24, 2020 by saengd

[Drax]

33 minutes ago, Chazar said:

age and  any underlying problems?

45. He had diabetes and was fat but otherwise healthy. He only had symptoms for 15 days and was on a ventilator the 2nd week + on antibiotics. 

[Matzzon]

Yes, I would assume so.

[TGIR]

I compared Thailand's numbers with the normal flu this morning.  The difference was startling.....If I read it correctly the Corona virus is not nearly as bad as the regular flu in terms of how many get it and how many die.   I continue to wonder if this isn't some sort of scam we are unaware of.......although who would do that and why?  

[tifino]

8 minutes ago, TGIR said:

I compared Thailand's numbers with the normal flu this morning.  The diff and erence was startling.....If I read it correctly the Corona virus is not nearly as bad as the regular flu in terms of how many get it and how many die.   I continue to wonder if this isn't some sort of scam we are unaware of.......although who would do that and why?  

but it is what happens in the period between getting Diagnosed, and for many, the Life Support   

 

the last time people saw this, was when watching 'Coma'  

 

 

[joecoolfrog]

9 hours ago, PingRoundTheWorld said:

I don't think it's a deliberate attempt at herd immunity as it is sheer incompetence. They simply make snap decisions with no plans and no foresight as to the ramifications. Just a few of the brilliant recent decisions:

 

1. Shut down all bars and clubs: congratulations, you now have thousands of potential super spreaders going back to their home towns and spread it along the way and in the countryside when they arrive.

2. Shut down all non-essential stores: less effect probably, but same as above - more people going home.

3. Allowing people on overcrowded buses: almost guaranteed that there will be several sick on each bus, further ensuring it spreads throughout the country.

 

I don't think any of this was done deliberately, they're just running around like headless chicken making one random rule after another then changing it the next hour. But the end result is that wether they intended it or not - Thailand is going to get completely infected, and herd immunity will be the end result, eventually.

 

As far as government hiding numbers etc. - it's not so much that they hid any numbers, it's just that they didn't count. If they don't test, they don't find, it's that simple. Recently they started testing more (we'll leave the reasons why to another post) so of course they are finding more. It's not that the virus is all of a sudden "a new strain" or "more aggressive" - it's just that it was circulating around for over two months building up. Just because someone was in Lumpini stadium and tested positive doesn't necessarily mean they actually got it from there. More likely is that person infected a few people, and the rest who supposedly got it from there were already infected from other sources.

 

Anyway, bottom line is - it's been spreading for months now, many of us probably already had it and are just not aware, and it's beyond the government's ability to control now. All they can do forward is control the aftermath, and find a scapegoat. "Italian virus" says it all.

Precisely my view.

The government is trying to save face by apeing the western nations ,but is unable or unwilling to provide the huge financial commitment that encourages and enables wholesale social isolation.

Its a lipstick on a pig job and frankly it wont end well.

[CGW]

2 hours ago, lemonjelly said:

You think there’s a plan?!

Really! you know desperation is setting when folks expect the "government" here to have a "Plan" 

[Anant72]

The virus is not known to have mutated and scientists and doctors  I have heard questioned on tv about this say there is no “Italian” strain. For what it is worth.

[Tchooptip]

12 hours ago, samsensam said:

 

the latitude theory has been in play for a while now, as far as i'm aware there is no direct evidence it exists but anecdotally there may be something in it.

One explanation I have read about latitude was about the % of humidity, the fact that we breathed and also exhaled a wetter air in those latitudes would make the droplets containing the virus to be heavier and therefore going less far so consequently it would be less contagious than in countries with drier air where the exhalation will spread a little further even sometimes the double in distance. 

[Max69xl]

13 hours ago, bkk6060 said:

Very interesting.

I am watching the US president now and it appears he wants to give a "reopen"

in the next 7 days.

Maybe your comments are his thinking?

 

 

Trump is an idiot and think the economy is more important than keeping people alive. 

[wasabi]

2 minutes ago, Max69xl said:

Trump is an idiot and think the economy is more important than keeping people alive. 

The US can't fund the entire nation indefinitely. If the economy is stalled too long even more will die. It's a devil's bargain. 

[Max69xl]

If you're going for herd immunity you don't lock down cities and stop people moving around. But with a quite large population going for a herd immunity, it will cost many lives. In the UK they predicted 250k deaths if they went for herd immunity instead of lockdown. 

[Max69xl]

7 minutes ago, wasabi said:

The US can't fund the entire nation indefinitely. If the economy is stalled too long even more will die. It's a devil's bargain. 

There will be a lot worse before it gets better. Trump doesn't have a clue. You'll see. 

[otaku00]

The curfew that starts tomorrow is not a sign that they go for herd immunity. They want to slow the spread down.

[Jaggg88]

19 hours ago, cornishcarlos said:

20 hours ago, saengd said:

It seems from what I've read that the previous virus was a much milder strain and that we've now acquired the Italian version, I think this may be a whole new ball game.

 

This new "Italian" strain, has been identified by who exactly ?? 

There are indeed at least two strains but neither is worse than the other.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2236544-coronavirus-are-there-two-strains-and-is-one-more-deadly/

[Number 6]

If 4% of the population in Thailand dies due to covid that's roughly 2.8m people. This number was never released by the Chinese that's why all the government officials are emboldened to take such risk. Also because wealthy people stand a very low risk of dying from this they can take themselves out if gpop and have the best healthcare money can buy.

 

I'm not a cow. I'll pass on herd immunity this go round. To the people in power, ironically in this country in particular not well educated we are nothing but sheep. Herd immunity...lambs to the slaughter.

Edited March 24, 2020 by Number 6

[DrTuner]

I put the figures for "herd immunity", i.e. do nothing, to the SEIR model at http://gabgoh.github.io/COVID/index.html with R0 3.4 with CFR  4.4% and the result is ~3M dead in ~100 days, at most ~28M infected. That's some aim.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathematical_modelling_of_infectious_disease#Modelling_epidemics

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compartmental_models_in_epidemiology#The_SEIR_model

 

 

Edited March 24, 2020 by DrTuner

[sezze]

2 countries in Europe wanted to go for Herd response ( fyi UK and Netherlands ) , both changed their minds , with the new numbers coming in and rising day by day . Herding kills numerous more lives , with highly contagious disease . It goes too fast , it overwhelms the healthcare system . I said it already how many times . This is raging havoc in Italy and Spain ( in Spain they found already elderly homes where nobody cared anymore , they were left to die ) . Hospitals are breaking down ... It isn't a joke , and neither a flu .

[Max69xl]

7 hours ago, Number 6 said:

If 4% of the population in Thailand dies due to covid that's roughly 2.8m people. This number was never released by the Chinese that's why all the government officials are emboldened to take such risk. Also because wealthy people stand a very low risk of dying from this they can take themselves out if gpop and have the best healthcare money can buy.

 

I'm not a cow. I'll pass on herd immunity this go round. To the people in power, ironically in this country in particular not well educated we are nothing but sheep. Herd immunity...lambs to the slaughter.

Why would 4% of the population die? The Coronavirus fatality rate is so far ~1%. That's 1% of the infected.

[saengd]

6 minutes ago, Max69xl said:

Why would 4% of the population die? The Coronavirus fatality rate is so far ~1%. That's 1% of the infected.

You keep telling yourself that if it makes you feel better.

[scorecard]

On 3/24/2020 at 10:32 AM, saengd said:

I picked up what I read about China getting back to work from Bloomberg, they are pretty clear than Beijing and Shanghai are returning to normal and that Hong Kong ers are returning to work also. Wouldn't it be ironic if the safe haven for us turned out to be mainland China.

Or we seriously study and define what's been happening in China in the last few weeks and seriously/strictly copy it.