Coronavirus could kill 81,000 in U.S., subside in June - Washington University analysis

By Carl O'Donnell

 

 

(Reuters) - The coronavirus pandemic could kill more than 81,000 people in the United States in the next four months and may not subside until June, according to a data analysis done by University of Washington School of Medicine.

 

The number of hospitalized patients is expected to peak nationally by the second week of April, though the peak may come later in some states. Some people could continue to die of the virus as late as July, although deaths should be below epidemic levels of 10 per day by June at the latest, according to the analysis.

 

The analysis, using data from governments, hospitals and other sources, predicts that the number of U.S. deaths could vary widely, ranging from as low as around 38,000 to as high as around 162,000.

 

The variance is due in part to disparate rates of the spread of the virus in different regions, which experts are still struggling to explain, said Dr. Christopher Murray, director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, who led the study.

 

The duration of the virus means there may be a need for social distancing measures for longer than initially expected, although the country may eventually be able relax restrictions if it can more effectively test and quarantine the sick, Murray said.

 

The analysis also highlights the strain that will be placed on hospitals. At the epidemic's peak, sick patients could exceed the number of available hospital beds by 64,000 and could require the use of around 20,000 ventilators. Ventilators are already running short in hard-hit places like New York City.

 

The virus is spreading more slowly in California, which could mean that peak cases there will come later in April and social distancing measures will need to be extended in the state for longer, Murray said.

 

Louisiana and Georgia are predicted to see high rates of contagion and could see a particularly high burden on their local healthcare systems, he added.

 

The analysis assumes close adherence to infection prevention measures imposed by federal, state and local governments.

 

"The trajectory of the pandemic will change – and dramatically for the worse – if people ease up on social distancing or relax with other precautions," Murray said in a statement.

 

The analysis comes as confirmed coronavirus cases in the United States continue to mount, with the World Health Organization saying the country has the potential to become the world's new epicenter of the virus.

 

The coronavirus causes a respiratory illness that in a minority of severe cases ravages the lungs and can lead to death.

 

The United States has reported around 70,000 cases of the virus and more than 900 deaths since January. Globally, it has infected more than half a million people, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

 

The University of Washington has been at the center of the outbreak in United States, which first was detected in the state of Washington and has so far killed 100 people in that state, according to date from Johns Hopkins University.

 

(Reporting by Carl O'Donnell; Editing by Aurora Ellis)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-03-27

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Too optimistic.  The US is not going to impose national restrictions as China and some other successful countries have done.  The result will be that the virus with ricochet around the country, dying out in one place as it blooms in another.  All a result of the incompetence of the national government.

So...full churches by Easter, seems an especially great idea, then!

8 minutes ago, Saint Nick said:

So...full churches by Easter, seems an especially great idea, then!

Taken in full context it was stated that he would like to see such an occurance, but that was never stated as an exact, but rather as contingent upon events and the view of medical professionals, as wait and see. Easy to review the tapes.

 

The USA, like countries around the world has a team, and events change daily. Of course the world is filled with those who find themselves more capable then the professionals, and leading with negativity from the couch.

A post has been removed:

 

Thai Visa is an an anonymous forum,  anyone can contribute to a topic  no matter where they come from

And what if it does not tail off by june,what then?

 

5 hours ago, webfact said:

The analysis, using data from governments, hospitals and other sources, predicts that the number of U.S. deaths could vary widely, ranging from as low as around 38,000 to as high as around 162,000.

That surely takes the shock off the headline doesnt it. Lots of maybes quoted too.

9 minutes ago, Nyezhov said:

 

That surely takes the shock off the headline doesnt it. Lots of maybes quoted too.

That it could be half but it could equally likely be double doesn't take much shock off TBH. 38,000 is still a lot of people, and it could be 162,000? And that's just over the next four months.

4 hours ago, cmarshall said:

Too optimistic.  The US is not going to impose national restrictions as China and some other successful countries have done.  The result will be that the virus with ricochet around the country, dying out in one place as it blooms in another.  All a result of the incompetence of the national government.

It does seem very optimistic to me as well. The USA has still done very limited testing so it's probable that there are already at least 10 times the official cases and considering the insidious nature of exponential spread, fatalities at least over one million seem much more realistic.

6 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

It does seem very optimistic to me as well. The USA has still done very limited testing so it's probable that there are already at least 10 times the official cases and considering the insidious nature of exponential spread, fatalities at least over one million seem much more realistic.

China successful? Thats an overstatement. I will write them a Thankyou note.

81,000 are going to be killed? How so? I thought we were all social distancing?

 

Are you saying social distancing doesn't work?

21 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

It does seem very optimistic to me as well. The USA has still done very limited testing so it's probable that there are already at least 10 times the official cases and considering the insidious nature of exponential spread, fatalities at least over one million seem much more realistic.

My guess is China is just getting started and we wont see the truth as their despotic paranoid commie govt will hide facts from their own people and the world. 

37 minutes ago, Nyezhov said:

 

That surely takes the shock off the headline doesnt it. Lots of maybes quoted too.

Math not your thing then.

 

The headline gives a figure of 81,000 which is half the higher number of of ‘around 162,000’.

 

On what basis you claim this ‘surely takes the shock off the headline’ is a bit of mystery.

 

 

So a bit more than a flu. 

 

No biggie 

3 minutes ago, Boomer6969 said:

But this could save many more, if it could lead to the election of a president who would give us a truly universal health care system. 

Glad to have been born elsewhere. 

A couple of troll posts and replies have been removed.

28 minutes ago, WalkingOrders said:

My guess is China is just getting started and we wont see the truth as their despotic paranoid commie govt will hide facts from their own people and the world. 

As you said, your guess.

1 hour ago, Logosone said:

81,000 are going to be killed? How so? I thought we were all social distancing?

 

Are you saying social distancing doesn't work?

No it helps. Without it, the results will be far worse. The efforts that might have contained were not done in a timely fashion and there is now massive community spread going on.

53 minutes ago, Boomer6969 said:

But this could save many more, if it could lead to the election of a president who would give us a truly universal health care system. 

If you can wake Biden up from his nap, and provide him with the right medications he may last another month or so. But the topic here isnt really the US election is it?! No it isnt!

4 minutes ago, vermin on arrival said:

No it helps. Without it, the results will be far worse. The efforts that might have contained were not done in a timely fashion and there is now massive community spread going on.

No it doesn't. Travel restrictions only work at the start of a pandemic, not when the virus has already spread.

 

Precisely because there has been massive community spread going on for some time in the US is social distancing effectively useless now:

 

Cordoning off an entire city, Wuhan, bought the rest of China a grand total of 3 days:

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/25/science.abb4218

 

5 hours ago, Saint Nick said:

So...full churches by Easter, seems an especially great idea, then!

It's amazing how many 'clusters' have come about from religious gatherings and how little they get reported. However hold a boxing match and all hell breaks loose.

1 hour ago, WalkingOrders said:

My guess is China is just getting started and we wont see the truth as their despotic paranoid commie govt will hide facts from their own people and the world. 

According to friends and family in China they are already back at work in many places and some schools will be opening soon.

1 hour ago, WalkingOrders said:

My guess is China is just getting started and we wont see the truth as their despotic paranoid commie govt will hide facts from their own people and the world. 

China isn't a communist country in any pure sense of the word or anyway that Marx would have understood, it is a totalitarian authoritarian quasi fascist country. Jesus though in many respects was a communist.

 

"Again I tell you, it is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle than for someone who is rich to enter the kingdom of God." Matthew 19:24

 

57 minutes ago, PatOngo said:

Glad to have been born elsewhere. 

Me too. Happy for ya! Good luck weathering the storm!

1 minute ago, URMySunshine said:

China isn't a communist country in any pure sense of the word or anyway that Marx would have understood, it is a totalitarian authoritarian quasi fascist country. Jesus though in many respects was a communist.

 

"Again I tell you, it is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle than for someone who is rich to enter the kingdom of God." Matthew 19:24

 

I know, I know, I suppose you think thats an original thought that hasn't been said before, and hasn't been heard. Alas, it's quite well worn by now. None the less, they do think of themselves as one, and as per the usual have a single totalitarian party. Jesus, to my knowledge predates marxism by a year or two, and never was one for an all powerful Government to decide the fate of men and deny the free will given to them by God, but nice try. 

7 minutes ago, Thailand said:

According to friends and family in China they are already back at work in many places and some schools will be opening soon.

Most places, even pockets of Hubei, are open, except international airports. ????

 

Most schools open Monday 30th March.

10 minutes ago, Thailand said:

According to friends and family in China they are already back at work in many places and some schools will be opening soon.

Good, it will bode very bad if sizable breakouts happen in major Chinese cities.

1 minute ago, Traubert said:

Most places, even pockets of Hubei, are open, except international airports. ????

 

Most schools open Monday 30th March.

Reporting from China? 

14 minutes ago, Traubert said:

It's amazing how many 'clusters' have come about from religious gatherings and how little they get reported. However hold a boxing match and all hell breaks loose.

How do you know this "fact" of under reporting? Have Monks been whispering in your ear?

Some more troll posts and replies have been removed.