Is my 800,000 baht safe?

[SwissCheeseMan]

3 hours ago, morrobay said:

Three scenarios: 1 a bank fails. 2 deposit insurance fails. 3 no bailout. Suppose all have 1/3 probability, then for all three taken together a 1/27 risk. Also the very very wealthy Thais have about 50% of all Thai bank savings. Not panic city yet. By the way where are these people, one in particular  who have always stated how strong and resilient the Thai economy, banks are??? Their silence these days causes one to wonder if they actually ever believed what they have said. 

Your maths formula could be applied to any bank in any country.  We are talking about Thai banks in Thailand.  Every country will experience different levels of economic problems because of this virus.  I think Thailand's economy will have more problems than a lot of other economies.

 

The money that was in my Thai bank account was not my life savings, but I feel better now that I have moved it.

 

When I gave it serious consideration the only reason I had for it sitting there was for the retirement visa.  That wasn't a good enough reason for me to take the risk of leaving it here so I moved it.  I jumped straight onto the 65,000 baht method by transferring immediately but I can always transfer the lump sum back when this virus situation has been resolved.    

 

I could have kept an eye on the Thai banks on the SET, but thought it better to just transfer the money out of Thailand.  I am not saying my decision is right for everyone but for my circumstances it now gives me piece of mind. 

[Leaver]

8 hours ago, morrobay said:

Three scenarios: 1 a bank fails. 2 deposit insurance fails. 3 no bailout. Suppose all have 1/3 probability, then for all three taken together a 1/27 risk. Also the very very wealthy Thais have about 50% of all Thai bank savings. Not panic city yet. By the way where are these people, one in particular  who have always stated how strong and resilient the Thai economy, banks are??? Their silence these days causes one to wonder if they actually ever believed what they have said. 

Scenario 1 - you most likely lose your money.

 

Scenario 2 - you lose the guarantee of getting your money back, regardless of the bank's position.

 

Scenario 3 - your bank sinks, and you lose your money.

 

That a 33.33% chance a bad outcome for the depositor, if only one of the scenarios happen.

 

Those wealthy Thai's will have inside knowledge on a Thai bank's failure, and will be paid first.   The rest of the Thai's, and the foreigners, will lose out. 

[SwissCheeseMan]

On 4/4/2020 at 7:35 PM, Leaver said:

Scenario 1 - you most likely lose your money.

 

Scenario 2 - you lose the guarantee of getting your money back, regardless of the bank's position.

 

Scenario 3 - your bank sinks, and you lose your money.

 

That a 33.33% chance a bad outcome for the depositor, if only one of the scenarios happen.

 

Those wealthy Thai's will have inside knowledge on a Thai bank's failure, and will be paid first.   The rest of the Thai's, and the foreigners, will lose out. 

I saw it a lose - lose - lose, either way, by leaving this money in Thailand. 

 

A lot higher risk now, for the same little to no monetary reward, and all for the sake of appeasing Thai immigration for a visa, which is just a piece of paper. 

 

I didn't see it as worth it, so sent the money back home and I have no regrets in doing so.

 

 

[SwissCheeseMan]

On 3/31/2020 at 4:06 PM, Leaver said:

Thailand's never been through something like this, has it?

 

The world really hasn't been through something like this, and as I have just posted in another thread, I do not have the confidence in the Thai government to manage this virus crisis effectively. 

 

I only moved the money to Thailand for the visa, and that is not a good enough reason to leave it here now, in the present, riskier circumstances.

 

 

Edited April 9, 2020 by SwissCheeseMan

[Leaver]

On 4/9/2020 at 4:46 PM, SwissCheeseMan said:

The world really hasn't been through something like this, and as I have just posted in another thread, I do not have the confidence in the Thai government to manage this virus crisis effectively. 

 

I only moved the money to Thailand for the visa, and that is not a good enough reason to leave it here now, in the present, riskier circumstances.

 

 

I see in another thread the President of the Deposit Protection Agency (DPA) is trying to sell "confidence" now. 

 

Just like the street hawkers here, and at the markets, be weary of a Thai trying to sell you something.  The old saying, "Same same, but different." 

 

In my opinion, what will happen in Thailand, over the next 12 to 18 months, will not be the same like other disruptions here in the past.  It will be very different, and it's possible some Thai banks will not be able to remain solvent.  

[Tuvoc]

Easy for me to say, because I don't have 800,000 baht in a Thai bank just yet, but I don't share your pessimism. Let's see.

(will only be 400,000 for me, marriage not retirement)

[Leaver]

4 hours ago, Tuvoc said:

Easy for me to say, because I don't have 800,000 baht in a Thai bank just yet, but I don't share your pessimism. Let's see.

(will only be 400,000 for me, marriage not retirement)

Would you put 400k baht in the stock market right now?  No.  So why put it in a Thai bank, just for a visa?  

[plumberman123]

Dear OP

 

If there is a run on the banks then youll be screwed,

 

You obviously dont have much other savings other than this 800.000 baht

 

take it out and buy gold, then next year when you need the visa sell the gold and deposit back, then do the same again

 

simple

 

dont give anymore money to your 20 year old tolac as shes ripping you off and is not with you for your good looks

 

wake up

[Tuvoc]

7 hours ago, Leaver said:

Would you put 400k baht in the stock market right now?  No.  So why put it in a Thai bank, just for a visa?  

It is safer in the Thai bank than the stock market I'd say.

[Leaver]

16 hours ago, Tuvoc said:

It is safer in the Thai bank than the stock market I'd say.

I agree, but wouldn't it be safer in your home country bank than a Thai bank?  Remember, you are only doing it for a visa, it's not an investment. 

[SwissCheeseMan]

On 4/10/2020 at 6:16 PM, Leaver said:

I see in another thread the President of the Deposit Protection Agency (DPA) is trying to sell "confidence" now. 

 

Just like the street hawkers here, and at the markets, be weary of a Thai trying to sell you something.  The old saying, "Same same, but different." 

 

In my opinion, what will happen in Thailand, over the next 12 to 18 months, will not be the same like other disruptions here in the past.  It will be very different, and it's possible some Thai banks will not be able to remain solvent.  

I might not want to continue living here, until the Thai economy has recovered, which might take a long time.  Since the money was only for a visa, no point leaving it in Thailand.  

[SwissCheeseMan]

On 4/11/2020 at 2:59 AM, plumberman123 said:

Dear OP

 

If there is a run on the banks then youll be screwed,

 

You obviously dont have much other savings other than this 800.000 baht

 

take it out and buy gold, then next year when you need the visa sell the gold and deposit back, then do the same again

 

simple

 

dont give anymore money to your 20 year old tolac as shes ripping you off and is not with you for your good looks

 

wake up

I have substantially more than 800,000 baht in cash at bank.  I only moved the money to Thailand for a visa.  Now, that isn't a good enough reason for me anymore, and it comes at a higher risk, so I moved the money back.  

 

I have never paid for a sick buffalo. 

 

I just have no confidence in Thailand to manage the virus crisis properly, that's from a public health view, and also economic view, which flows on to Thai banks.

[SwissCheeseMan]

On 4/12/2020 at 1:11 AM, Leaver said:

I agree, but wouldn't it be safer in your home country bank than a Thai bank?  Remember, you are only doing it for a visa, it's not an investment. 

Exactly.  I'm not "investing" in next year's visa with 800,000 baht when I might lose the 800,000 baht, or lose access to it, or might not even want to live here, until Thailand rebounds from this.

[Peter Denis]

On 4/10/2020 at 6:59 PM, plumberman123 said:

If there is a run on the banks then youll be screwed,

You obviously dont have much other savings other than this 800.000 baht

take it out and buy gold, then next year when you need the visa sell the gold and deposit back, then do the same again

simple

...

What you suggest is possible but will bring OP in trouble.

The 800K needs to remain on the OP's personal bank-account for 3 months after his application for an extension of stay based on his Non Imm O - retirement Visa, has been approved.  Then he can lower it to 400K (for 7 months) but 2 months before his next application he needs to top it up again to 800K. 

His permission to stay is based on complying with the above.    

[SwissCheeseMan]

10 minutes ago, Peter Denis said:

What you suggest is possible but will bring OP in trouble.

The 800K needs to remain on the OP's personal bank-account for 3 months after his application for an extension of stay based on his Non Imm O - retirement Visa, has been approved.  Then he can lower it to 400K (for 7 months) but 2 months before his next application he needs to top it up again to 800K. 

His permission to stay is based on complying with the above.    

As soon as I moved the money, straight away I transferred 65,000 baht. 

 

I will go to the 65,000 baht method, but having a large some of money in a country that may go down the toilet, taking my money with it, made no sense to me.

 

In the present circumstances, the 65,000 baht method is a lot less riskier than the 800,000 baht method, and achieves the same result.

[Onrai]

5 hours ago, Peter Denis said:

take it out and buy gold, then next year when you need the visa sell the gold and deposit back, then do the same again

simple

Buying gold is speculative. You may very well be buying for a higher price than It is worth when you want to sell it. Simple as long as you know it may be worth less than when you bought it. 

[Peter Denis]

1 minute ago, Onrai said:

Buying gold is speculative. You may very well be buying for a higher price than It is worth when you want to sell it. Simple as long as you know it may be worth less than when you bought it. 

For info < The above is not a quote of mine.  I reacted in my post to @plumberman123 who made the above quote in his earlier message.

[Onrai]

15 minutes ago, Peter Denis said:

For info < The above is not a quote of mine.  I reacted in my post to @plumberman123 who made the above quote in his earlier message

Apologies for quoting wrong person.

[Leaver]

On 4/16/2020 at 2:40 PM, SwissCheeseMan said:

I might not want to continue living here

Many here may simply not end up living.  

[Leaver]

On 4/16/2020 at 2:49 PM, SwissCheeseMan said:

Exactly.  I'm not "investing" in next year's visa with 800,000 baht when I might lose the 800,000 baht, or lose access to it, or might not even want to live here, until Thailand rebounds from this.

I guess those on the 800k baht method would rather have their visa revoked than lose their money.  800k baht would sure make for an expensive visa.  ???? 

[Morty T]

On 3/29/2020 at 8:30 AM, kenk24 said:

do some research.. in USA in the late 80s there was a big banking crisis where many banks went bust... I have never heard of anything like that here but the world has never seen times like we are facing, IMO... at 800k you should be insured.. and if worried, put the money in a home safe... 

Thai banks aren't insured, unless you have personal liability insurance. It's not like the US where all deposits are insured by the FDIC for the first 200K. 

[frantick]

2 hours ago, Morty T said:

Thai banks aren't insured, unless you have personal liability insurance. It's not like the US where all deposits are insured by the FDIC for the first 200K. 

Wrong, Thai bank accounts are insured for 5m baht by the government. Same as in the US.

 

And the US is $250k.

[Peter Denis]

11 hours ago, frantick said:

Wrong, Thai bank accounts are insured for 5m baht by the government. Same as in the US.

And the US is $250k.

Be aware that the thai government guarantee of the 5m THB is for the totality of your accounts at a thai bank.  If you have 3 accounts at same bank totalling e.g. 7m THB the guarantee is limited to 5m THB. 

It's a good idea to have accounts at different banks anyway.

[Roy Baht]

"Is my 800,000 baht safe?"

Lots of Brits asked the same questions a few years back. They decided “No” and kept their money in GBP.  Now their money is only worth half as much.

 

[bkk6060]

11 hours ago, frantick said:

Thai bank accounts are insured for 5m baht by the government.

If you truly believe they would guarantee this if the government goes broke good luck.

[ICELANDMAN]

Banks, government, Immigration Bureau, life, home, circulation, guns, car, food, water, insurance, hospitals, wife, nothing in Thailand is safe.

Everyone who lives in Thailand must have an adventurer tendency or otherwise not survive

[Leaver]

22 hours ago, frantick said:

Wrong, Thai bank accounts are insured for 5m baht by the government. Same as in the US.

 

And the US is $250k.

I have read the Thai government can't afford to give its poorer citizens 5000 baht, which would just be for subsistence.  Eg. food.  

 

I have also read the Thai government is requesting "help" which in Thailand means, a "donation" from Thailand's richest people.

 

Do you really think this same government has the ability to "guarantee" or "underwrite" 1 million baht, let alone, 5 million baht, in EVERY single bank account in Thailand?  I don't think so.   

 

I think the OP made the right decision and go his money out while he still could.  

[Leaver]

On 4/18/2020 at 11:06 AM, Roy Baht said:

"Is my 800,000 baht safe?"

 

Lots of Brits asked the same questions a few years back. They decided “No” and kept their money in GBP.  Now their money is only worth half as much.

 

 

But who knows what the future holds.  Maybe the Brit's that left their money in the UK will still have it, whilst those that brought it to Thailand lose it all.   

[SwissCheeseMan]

On 4/17/2020 at 8:58 PM, Leaver said:

I guess those on the 800k baht method would rather have their visa revoked than lose their money.  800k baht would sure make for an expensive visa.  ???? 

I changed to the 65,000 baht method.  I have no problem risking that amount each month to stay here.  I also have an ATM card from my home country in case my Thai bank goes under or freezes all accounts.    

[Leaver]

On 4/18/2020 at 11:08 AM, bkk6060 said:

If you truly believe they would guarantee this if the government goes broke good luck.

The Thai government is already crying poor.