Pattaya: "Zero" tourists - last remaining Russians have cancelled and tourism industry faces 80% closure for up to a year

[Leaver]

On 4/5/2020 at 7:14 AM, Watchful said:

Leaver, after the pandemic, I'd be interested in seeing some statistical analysis of those who perished. Since this virus causes all kinds of lung problems, I'd like to know whether those who intentionally introduce particulate matter into their lungs (tobacco, weed, vaping, etc) suffer any differently from the virus than those who do not.    

I believe the virus effects smokers more seriously. 

 

What is your point? 

[Watchful]

13 hours ago, Leaver said:

I believe the virus effects smokers more seriously. 

 

What is your point? 

Leaver, I suspect you are correct, but I have zero data to support that. 

 

I believe the medical community should start providing information that's databased about which populations are at the highest risk. It seems to me that quarantining those folks makes more sense than global shutdowns. Right now all I know is "elderly" and African Americans are at most risk. That really doesn't help any.

 

I suspect that both weed and tobacco smokers would fall in the "high risk" category as well as those that vape.

[thaibeachlovers]

55 minutes ago, Watchful said:

Leaver, I suspect you are correct, but I have zero data to support that. 

 

I believe the medical community should start providing information that's databased about which populations are at the highest risk. It seems to me that quarantining those folks makes more sense than global shutdowns. Right now all I know is "elderly" and African Americans are at most risk. That really doesn't help any.

 

I suspect that both weed and tobacco smokers would fall in the "high risk" category as well as those that vape.

Any that have damaged their lungs by smoking or other ( glue sniffing? ) are obviously more at risk, but the sheer numbers would make quarantine difficult.

[RoadWarrior371]

On 4/4/2020 at 10:49 AM, Boomer6969 said:

Tourism will not restart before a successful vaccination campaign has been carried out worldwide. And to that, depending on the devastation of the economies, you can add one or more years before potential tourists even think of flying out to a place like Thailand, or what will be left of it. 3 to 5 years would be my guesstimate.

Great, now what is the downside?

[thaibeachlovers]

4 hours ago, RoadWarrior371 said:

Great, now what is the downside?

Most bars closed, bar girls like hen's teeth.

I had thought it would be a good time to visit Pattaya again a couple of weeks ago after all the Chinese and Russians left, but there is no reason to any more.

[Leaver]

12 hours ago, Watchful said:

Leaver, I suspect you are correct, but I have zero data to support that. 

 

I believe the medical community should start providing information that's databased about which populations are at the highest risk. It seems to me that quarantining those folks makes more sense than global shutdowns. Right now all I know is "elderly" and African Americans are at most risk. That really doesn't help any.

 

I suspect that both weed and tobacco smokers would fall in the "high risk" category as well as those that vape.

Random article from the first page of Google.

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/victoriaforster/2020/03/23/smokers-at-higher-risk-of-severe--covid-19-during-coronavirus-outbreak/

[johng]

13 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Any that have damaged their lungs by smoking or other ( glue sniffing? ) are obviously more at risk, but the sheer numbers would make quarantine difficult.

How about all those poor sods in many provinces  with yearly  crop,forest and rubbish burning causing  some like Chaingmai to have the worst air quality in the world for months.

 

Smokers (and glue sniffers ????) choose to do it.

[Kerryd]

On 3/30/2020 at 11:04 AM, NanLaew said:

The 18 months should be plenty time to raise that festering blot called Walking Street, including the condo that will never, ever be finished. Rip up the narrow sois and streets, the old and inadequate drainage and plumbing and rebuild the whole place. That way it has a head-start on the region and has a chance of becoming Asia's most popular family beach resort when the sun eventually rises again.

 

...oh, I just woke up.

Lol - I would be surprised if that (or some of it) hasn't already been suggested. After all, it's not like they didn't try to remove all the businesses on the west side of Walking Street before. There is a group (about 100 I think) of people who own all those businesses who protested and forced the city to back down (to much money and influence on that side of the street apparently). I think they've actually tried at least twice in the last 20 years, along with numerous proposals that no one has bought into.

Right now would be a great time for <snip> "something" to happen as there really shouldn't be anyone left there anyways.

Then, while doing the clean up they could widen the street, add a boardwalk or wide sidewalk like they have on Beach Road. I think the drainage on Walking Street was done back in '98 or 2000. I recall having to walk around the ditches in the middle of the road one trip, in the pouring rain. The rain was warmer than the water in the hotel I was staying at. The Thais thought all the foreigners were nuts for dancing in the rain while they (the Thais) were hiding under roofs or umbrellas.

I tried to explain to some about just how cold it was back in Canada right then. I pointed to a freezer full of ice and noted that where I was from, it was colder than the inside of that freezer. (Many girls suddenly decided that they really didn't want to move to Canada all of a sudden !)

 

[Kerryd]

On 4/8/2020 at 1:30 PM, Leaver said:

I believe the virus effects smokers more seriously. 

What is your point? 

 

On 4/9/2020 at 2:56 AM, Watchful said:

Leaver, I suspect you are correct, but I have zero data to support that. 

 

I believe the medical community should start providing information that's databased about which populations are at the highest risk. It seems to me that quarantining those folks makes more sense than global shutdowns. Right now all I know is "elderly" and African Americans are at most risk. That really doesn't help any.

 

I suspect that both weed and tobacco smokers would fall in the "high risk" category as well as those that vape.

I made that point (for what little it mattered) back early on when the topic (somewhere else) was about the high mortality rate in China. At the time it was noted that most of the deaths were older people (65+) and most (2/3rds) were male.
I noted that, in China, smoking is still socially acceptable and they have some of the heaviest smokers in the world, and most of them are male (because it isn't socially acceptable for women to smoke apparently).
And as we know, second hand smoke is also an issue for non-smokers. So you can imagine family groups living in close proximity, where a lot (or most) of the males are heavy smokers and suddenly they are infected with a virus that affects their lungs.
I also noted that it was probably a given that the quality of the cigarettes/filters/tobacco wasn't going to be as high as it would be in the West. Meaning more Chinese are probably susceptible to lung diseases and viruses than their "Western" counterparts.

It was also noted in the media back then that most of the people under 65 who were dying had underlying medical conditions. I remember it was news when someone who was "only" 35 died (and they noted that person was a diabetic).
Others who died were suffering from things like cancer, pneumonia, different lung problems and auto-immune diseases. 
Also, in China, it is likely that when people started getting sick (initially) they probably went to the local "healer" and herbal pharmacy instead of a hospital and by the time things got severe, they had infected a lot of other people.
 

[morrobay]

1 hour ago, Kerryd said:

 

I made that point (for what little it mattered) back early on when the topic (somewhere else) was about the high mortality rate in China. At the time it was noted that most of the deaths were older people (65+) and most (2/3rds) were male.
I noted that, in China, smoking is still socially acceptable and they have some of the heaviest smokers in the world, and most of them are male (because it isn't socially acceptable for women to smoke apparently).
And as we know, second hand smoke is also an issue for non-smokers. So you can imagine family groups living in close proximity, where a lot (or most) of the males are heavy smokers and suddenly they are infected with a virus that affects their lungs.
I also noted that it was probably a given that the quality of the cigarettes/filters/tobacco wasn't going to be as high as it would be in the West. Meaning more Chinese are probably susceptible to lung diseases and viruses than their "Western" counterparts.

It was also noted in the media back then that most of the people under 65 who were dying had underlying medical conditions. I remember it was news when someone who was "only" 35 died (and they noted that person was a diabetic).
Others who died were suffering from things like cancer, pneumonia, different lung problems and auto-immune diseases. 
Also, in China, it is likely that when people started getting sick (initially) they probably went to the local "healer" and herbal pharmacy instead of a hospital and by the time things got severe, they had infected a lot of other people.
 

Right about the cigarette smokers and their degraded immune system. In the future there will be a lot more information feedback on why some get infected and why some have the serious problems and sure you have listed many of them in post #219 But regarding post #218: Let's not suggest that the ******** that destroyed the beach promenade be involved with Walking St. Actually the less these people do with any thing around here the better. 

[Kerryd]

1 hour ago, morrobay said:

But regarding post #218: Let's not suggest that the ******** that destroyed the beach promenade be involved with Walking St. Actually the less these people do with any thing around here the better. 

No doubt ! I'm sure it would be a fiasco that would drag on for decades and never actually become what they intended it to be.

[Leaver]

6 hours ago, Kerryd said:

 

I made that point (for what little it mattered) back early on when the topic (somewhere else) was about the high mortality rate in China. At the time it was noted that most of the deaths were older people (65+) and most (2/3rds) were male.
I noted that, in China, smoking is still socially acceptable and they have some of the heaviest smokers in the world, and most of them are male (because it isn't socially acceptable for women to smoke apparently).
And as we know, second hand smoke is also an issue for non-smokers. So you can imagine family groups living in close proximity, where a lot (or most) of the males are heavy smokers and suddenly they are infected with a virus that affects their lungs.
I also noted that it was probably a given that the quality of the cigarettes/filters/tobacco wasn't going to be as high as it would be in the West. Meaning more Chinese are probably susceptible to lung diseases and viruses than their "Western" counterparts.

It was also noted in the media back then that most of the people under 65 who were dying had underlying medical conditions. I remember it was news when someone who was "only" 35 died (and they noted that person was a diabetic).
Others who died were suffering from things like cancer, pneumonia, different lung problems and auto-immune diseases. 
Also, in China, it is likely that when people started getting sick (initially) they probably went to the local "healer" and herbal pharmacy instead of a hospital and by the time things got severe, they had infected a lot of other people.
 

I am unaware of any statistical data that gives the percentage of smokers to non-smokers in the death statistics. 

 

As I said, I have read that for those that catch the virus, smokers were impacted more than non-smokers.  Whether that was in death rates, or recovery rate, I don't know. 

 

I am sure there have been many smokers that have survived, but when all of this is finished, that will be an interesting statistic to know. Of course, the problem is, "smoker" is a broad term.  That could be someone who has a maximum 3 cigarettes a day, to a chain smoker.    

[Kerryd]

1 minute ago, Leaver said:

I am unaware of any statistical data that gives the percentage of smokers to non-smokers in the death statistics. 

 

As I said, I have read that for those that catch the virus, smokers were impacted more than non-smokers.  Whether that was in death rates, or recovery rate, I don't know. 

 

I am sure there have been many smokers that have survived, but when all of this is finished, that will be an interesting statistic to know. Of course, the problem is, "smoker" is a broad term.  That could be someone who has a maximum 3 cigarettes a day, to a chain smoker.    

Indeed. I've been a bit surprised that they haven't released any data (publicly at least) about that. I did see reports mentioning that men (everywhere, not just in China) seem to make up 2/3rds of the deaths and one supposition was that women were "naturally" more immune to the virus than men.
One such article (of many out there now):
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/04/coronavirus-men/

But without accurate data, and without taking underlying issues into account, it's hard to say for sure. It seems that the stat holds true in the other countries as well, where you'd expect fewer heavy smokers and healthier "older" people.
Many articles telling people to quit smoking, and that smokers seem to suffer more severe effects.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/health/2020-04-03/coronavirus-smokers-vulnerable-to-covid-19/12114734
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/04/studies-smoking-age-other-factors-raise-risk-covid-19-death

As it noted in one report I just read, it's only 3 1/2 months into this. Scientists are still coming up with the questions, but the answers could take some time.
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/health/wellness/can-you-be-re-infected-after-recovering-from-coronavirus-heres-what-we-know-about-covid-19-immunity/ar-BB128AmC?li=BBXLjO0

[Leaver]

21 minutes ago, Kerryd said:

Indeed. I've been a bit surprised that they haven't released any data (publicly at least) about that. I did see reports mentioning that men (everywhere, not just in China) seem to make up 2/3rds of the deaths and one supposition was that women were "naturally" more immune to the virus than men.
One such article (of many out there now):
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/04/coronavirus-men/

But without accurate data, and without taking underlying issues into account, it's hard to say for sure. It seems that the stat holds true in the other countries as well, where you'd expect fewer heavy smokers and healthier "older" people.
Many articles telling people to quit smoking, and that smokers seem to suffer more severe effects.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/health/2020-04-03/coronavirus-smokers-vulnerable-to-covid-19/12114734
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/04/studies-smoking-age-other-factors-raise-risk-covid-19-death

As it noted in one report I just read, it's only 3 1/2 months into this. Scientists are still coming up with the questions, but the answers could take some time.
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/health/wellness/can-you-be-re-infected-after-recovering-from-coronavirus-heres-what-we-know-about-covid-19-immunity/ar-BB128AmC?li=BBXLjO0

That's an interesting graph.  Males are over represented in all of the listed countries, yet, females generally live longer than males, so many deceased female would be older than the deceased males. 

[RJRS1301]

12 minutes ago, Leaver said:

That's an interesting graph.  Males are over represented in all of the listed countries, yet, females generally live longer than males, so many deceased female would be older than the deceased males. 

Although sex-disaggregated data for COVID-19 show equal numbers of cases between men and women so far, there seem to be sex differences in mortality and vulnerability to the disease.

Emerging evidence suggests that more men than women are dying, potentially due to sex-based immunological or gendered differences, such as patterns and prevalence of smoking.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30526-2/fulltext

[Kerryd]

13 minutes ago, Leaver said:

That's an interesting graph.  Males are over represented in all of the listed countries, yet, females generally live longer than males, so many deceased female would be older than the deceased males. 

One theory is that older men are more likely to die because of low testosterone levels (which go down as we get older of course as nature doesn't really want us fathering children into our 90s unless you're a famous actor or something).

So one would have to wonder if perhaps estrogen plays a factor in why women seem to have a higher survival rate.

As the one article mentions, it's too early into this pandemic and there are so many questions and even when they come up with a possible answer, it needs to be peer reviewed (tested independently by another organization under controlled circumstances to see if their results match those of the originating doctor/lab).
Even then, it is subject to review and further testing and the end result may still be "we don't know for sure, but we think so". 

And there are so many questions being asked (of the professional, medical kind) and so many people researching those questions, it could be many more months before some of those questions have definitive answers.

Which may actually lead to even more questions.

[StayinThailand2much]

On 3/30/2020 at 9:45 AM, webfact said:

He said that 80% of the tourism industry in Pattaya faces either temporary or permanent closure. 

 

The effect of the outbreak will be felt for at least 10 to 12 months. 

 

Picture: 77kaoded

 

He expected sell offs to foreign business interests (...)

 

Fear not, Pattaya! As soon as Thai and expat business owners throw in the towel, entrepreneurs from 'big brother up north' will buy up what's left for pennies on the dollar, as they will around the world, which is ironic as (where did all this start, again)... ?

 

They will bring their own hoteliers, restaurant staff, taxi drivers, tour guides, construction workers, architects, and engineers to rebuild Pattaya to their needs. Perhaps even their own, light-skinned, h***ers...

Edited April 10, 2020 by StayinThailand2much

[Leaver]

2 hours ago, StayinThailand2much said:

Fear not, Pattaya! As soon as Thai and expat business owners throw in the towel, entrepreneurs from 'big brother up north' will buy up what's left for pennies on the dollar, as they will around the world, which is ironic as (where did all this start, again)... ?

 

They will bring their own hoteliers, restaurant staff, taxi drivers, tour guides, construction workers, architects, and engineers to rebuild Pattaya to their needs. Perhaps even their own, light-skinned, h***ers...

Thailand wanted the Chinese.  Thailand got the Chinese.  ????

[i84teen]

On 3/30/2020 at 8:49 AM, ChipButty said:

If and when the flights are allowed back into Thailand what do you reckon the prices will be? only last week Phuket back to Manchester 4000 grand one way

singapore to LA/SFO/ SEA, for May departures are nice and cheap, less than $1000 for econ, 3 grand for business. UK to bkk is less than 500 pounds for may departures.

Edited April 10, 2020 by i84teen

[phkauf]

20 hours ago, StayinThailand2much said:

They will bring their own hoteliers, restaurant staff, taxi drivers, tour guides, construction workers, architects, and engineers to rebuild Pattaya to their needs. Perhaps even their own, light-skinned, h***ers...

They will do to Pattaya what they did to Sihanoukville in Cambodia. And if you didn't think Pattaya could get any worse...

[Finspin]

17 hours ago, i84teen said:

singapore to LA/SFO/ SEA, for May departures are nice and cheap, less than $1000 for econ, 3 grand for business. UK to bkk is less than 500 pounds for may departures.

Did a test purchase with Thai Airlines on their app for a return trip LHR - BKK In December. Was quoted £968, which is over twice what I paid for a recent trip to Thailand. Price will have to drop for me to actually make that possible trip.

[Leaver]

5 hours ago, Finspin said:

Did a test purchase with Thai Airlines on their app for a return trip LHR - BKK In December. Was quoted £968, which is over twice what I paid for a recent trip to Thailand. Price will have to drop for me to actually make that possible trip.

Did the same.  Picked some dates around 6 months from now, all expensive.  I'm surprised they were even for sale, or at least appeared so.  No one knows when certain countries will let people out, and let people in, so why are the airlines selling tickets? 

[balo]

1 hour ago, Leaver said:

Picked some dates around 6 months from now, all expensive.  I'm surprised they were even for sale, or at least appeared so. 

Do not even think about booking any tickets until the crisis is over.  

[Leaver]

6 minutes ago, balo said:

Do not even think about booking any tickets until the crisis is over.  

I wasn't.  I have no need to.  just interested in when the airlines seem to think they were going to be taking to the skies again, and when they think boarders will be open that will allow them to do so.

 

Once again, not even sure why they are even selling tickets, if they actually are.  I didn't take the search right up to the payment process. 

[liddelljohn]

Very few Thais  that I know are getting the 5000 baht government assistance even though their jobs or small businesses have shut down ,, many are in trouble  cant pay rents, motorsai hp , savings going etc  its a sick joke ,, i reckon a lot of the money is being syphoned off by the bureaucrats ,,,

 

Cant see pattaya returning to any form of normal for 18months at least ,,my girlfriend veg and fruit farm supplies 2 markets in pattaya  they are now very quiet also she supplies 5 restaurants  and they are closed ,, she cant get hold of ferltiliser either ,, here income has gone down 75%   she wont get any government help ,,, my ex wifes taxi tour business is closed  down she is isolating  no income at present  and wont get any 5000 baht a month from government ,,

 

my thai neighbour  owns a restaurant its shut down he pays 25,000 month rent  but has no income also a mortgage ,, he is not getting any government help ???

 

things are bad

 

[Leaver]

11 minutes ago, liddelljohn said:

Very few Thais  that I know are getting the 5000 baht government assistance even though their jobs or small businesses have shut down ,, many are in trouble  cant pay rents, motorsai hp , savings going etc  its a sick joke ,, i reckon a lot of the money is being syphoned off by the bureaucrats ,,,

 

Cant see pattaya returning to any form of normal for 18months at least ,,my girlfriend veg and fruit farm supplies 2 markets in pattaya  they are now very quiet also she supplies 5 restaurants  and they are closed ,, she cant get hold of ferltiliser either ,, here income has gone down 75%   she wont get any government help ,,, my ex wifes taxi tour business is closed  down she is isolating  no income at present  and wont get any 5000 baht a month from government ,,

 

my thai neighbour  owns a restaurant its shut down he pays 25,000 month rent  but has no income also a mortgage ,, he is not getting any government help ???

 

things are bad

 

Government help = deceiving the Thai people. 

[HashBrownHarry]

6 hours ago, liddelljohn said:

Very few Thais  that I know are getting the 5000 baht government assistance even though their jobs or small businesses have shut down ,, many are in trouble  cant pay rents, motorsai hp , savings going etc  its a sick joke ,, i reckon a lot of the money is being syphoned off by the bureaucrats ,,,

 

Cant see pattaya returning to any form of normal for 18months at least ,,my girlfriend veg and fruit farm supplies 2 markets in pattaya  they are now very quiet also she supplies 5 restaurants  and they are closed ,, she cant get hold of ferltiliser either ,, here income has gone down 75%   she wont get any government help ,,, my ex wifes taxi tour business is closed  down she is isolating  no income at present  and wont get any 5000 baht a month from government ,,

 

my thai neighbour  owns a restaurant its shut down he pays 25,000 month rent  but has no income also a mortgage ,, he is not getting any government help ???

 

things are bad

 

While it's sad people are struggling little thought has gone into having a slush fund for a rainy day, people here live WELL beyond their means, everything on HP, must show off to Somchai next door etc.

 

This can also be said of many countries the world over.

[pattayadude]

On 3/30/2020 at 11:42 AM, NCC1701A said:

condo values will be of course totally unaffected. 

 

 

a very small percentage of properties never get affected by economic reasons no matter what unless the whole town was devastated by a massive earthquake or something. but these are maybe only 5% or less( i.e. drop-dead unobstructed panaromic ocean/city views).Of course the rest will be #ucked

[RJRS1301]

On 4/12/2020 at 1:07 AM, Leaver said:

Did the same.  Picked some dates around 6 months from now, all expensive.  I'm surprised they were even for sale, or at least appeared so.  No one knows when certain countries will let people out, and let people in, so why are the airlines selling tickets? 

I feel airfares will rise, as they will not be allowed to carry as many passengers, certain countries will not be letting people in from countries unless tested and cleared of infection. Even with a vaccine this will not change for sometime.

Travelers will have carry a vaccination certificate.  

[Mojomor]

Was reading somewhere that the airlines have come up with some new spin where the center seats in the rows of 3 will be left empty to allow more space, with only a small increase in price ---- like 50% or something.