Fear Vs Reality (Covid-19)

[Enoon]

22 minutes ago, Liverpoolfan said:

What do you think is coming next mate?

 

Ebola mutated into airborne transmission.

 

There's nothing new about this.

 

Such events have been anticipated and planned for for many years.

 

But nobody, globally, was "in charge".

 

So some countries got it as "right" as was possible..........others didn't.

 

 

[Unify]

10 hours ago, Nyezhov said:

Its a serious disease that is no more serious than any other of its ilk (flu) that spreads in densely populated areas and kills off the old, every year.

 

But it is also a political excersize, especially in the USA and its relations with China that folks can see unfolding about them. Thats where the fear and angst and hype come from.

 

In essense, its the first shot in a new Cold War. China fired up. 

Every legitimate statistic on this virus shows it is currently many times more deadly than the flu. You have to completely ignore facts and reality to think otherwise.

[Bogbrush]

Part of an interview with Lord Sumption, former Justice of the UK Supreme Court....
 

 

We also have to recognise this is a process which leads naturally to exaggeration. The symptoms of coronavirus are clearly serious for those with other significant medical conditions, especially if they're old. There are exceptional cases in which young people have been struck down, which have had a lot of publicity, but the numbers are pretty small. The Italian evidence, for instance, suggests that only in 12 per cent of deaths is it possible to say coronavirus was the main cause of death. So yes this is serious and yes it's understandable that people cry out to the government. But the real question is: is this serious enough to warrant putting most of our population into house imprisonment, wrecking our economy for an indefinite period, destroying businesses that honest and hardworking people have taken years to build up, saddling future generations with debt, depression, stress, heart attacks, suicides and unbelievable distress inflicted on millions of people who are not especially vulnerable and will suffer only mild symptoms or none at all.

[30la]

In my opinion all the governments of this world use this "killer" to tidy up the country ...

Edited April 2, 2020 by 30la

[Nyezhov]

53 minutes ago, Unify said:

Every legitimate statistic on this virus shows it is currently many times more deadly than the flu. You have to completely ignore facts and reality to think otherwise.

You are quite mistaken.

[0zr0cks]

10 hours ago, parafareno said:

in Italy they say there is a 10 % mortality rate of who gets it....meaning who goes to hospital and gets tested cause he has symptoms...so that is really high....

Taiwan seems to be the smartest country.....by closing the borders with China and now people live with almost no restrictions.......

it is scary thing.....if it will come back each year, even those who got over it last year can get reinfected......i have a suspision diseases like this will be coming and coming in the future......it is also possible it was artificially made in the lab.........i watched some documentary like 2 years ago, where there are open labs where regular people can mix all kind of ingredients together with no supervision and that scared me back then....how do we know this stuff really came from animals in Wuhan being placed in cages one on top of another.....this disease is really scarry.....

Do some fact checking, I’ve heard that many senior virologists say that it’s definitely from an animal host not from a lab. I mean the Chinese are responsible so they’ll have to stop anyone in future from handling bats full stop, the World should insist on that. As for it coming back every year, within a year there’ll be a vaccine so that’s a non issue. You need to avoid reading stuff from fear mongers, they thrive on scaring people for some twisted reason. Go calmly it’s all going to be OK ????

[natway09]

Some of you need to take a maths lesson.

Love the chart,,,omitted to add to it "Died of Starvation about 27,000 per day +7,000 children under 12.

This <deleted> virus if let go is a virus which we have not seen the easy way it transmits 

when conditions are right (whatever that is). Waiting for a top viroligist to really tell us..

Take a look at Itay,,,,, why not Thailand we had millions of Chinese,Hong Kong, Macau etc

tourists in the country & we should be "busting at the seams now ".

The UK went viral as well very quickly (excuse the pun) Crazy amount of deaths there.

France not doing so well to add to the craziness.

Underestimate at your peril, I believe there is a trigger in Thailand still to explode.

I will gladly apologize to the Government & all you sceptics in July  (if I live that long)

. 

[Matzzon]

11 hours ago, Kinnock said:

Most people have no idea what the stats on COVID-19 reported every minute really mean.

As I see it, that comment must include you too.

[Tropposurfer]

This virus is not the flu nor like it! Please stop making reference to it as somehow the same as flu ... it is not.

 

It is a far more dangerous form of influenza.

 

It is far more contagious than flu (as far as world health experts are reporting).

 

It can be contagious (reported by health experts as HIGHLY contagious [ far i excess of common flu viruses] and HIGHLY resilient i.e. its half life outside the body) without the carrier knowing they are sick at all.

 

It begins with mild, or no symptoms then rapidly goes directly to pneumonia [unlike flu] and with (as far as statistics are showing) up to a maximum of 10% of those infected dying despite intensive interventive care (the average is around 5% worldwide). Extrapolate these figures, with no 'cure' in sight and you see huge numbers dying - far beyond that of common flu strains that seasonally affect people.

 

Extrapolate this into countries where healthcare is all but non-existent and the death rate will be far greater and very likely in the many millions. 

 

Pneumonia by itself is very different, and far, far more dangerous compared to the usually upper bronchial infection of flu, add to this impact of the virus in the body with the way in which this virus infests the cells and it is again far more dangerous than common seasonal flu. 

 

Covid has shown itself to mutate rapidly into new and very virile forms of Covid e.g. Italian and Spanish experience.

 

There are no vaccines and no antibiotic treatments for this non-human originating virus. 

[Skallywag]

 

[Skallywag]

14 minutes ago, Tropposurfer said:

Extrapolate

ex·trap·o·late

extend (a graph, curve, or range of values) by inferring unknown values from trends in the known data.

 

CV Data does not relate to all conditions, cultures, conclusions.

Therefore you are fear-mongering

B+

Solutions, not extrapolations are what is needed

[Stevemercer]

2 hours ago, Bogbrush said:

Part of an interview with Lord Sumption, former Justice of the UK Supreme Court....

 

But the real question is: is this serious enough to warrant putting most of our population into house imprisonment, wrecking our economy for an indefinite period, destroying businesses that honest and hardworking people have taken years to build up, saddling future generations with debt, depression, stress, heart attacks, suicides and unbelievable distress inflicted on millions of people who are not especially vulnerable and will suffer only mild symptoms or none at all.

 

No, the real question is whether people want governments to put risk the economy or risk their parents, grandparents and other elderly people.

 

The cohort most at risk (elderly) are our parents, and no government can be seen to be sacrificing their lives for the economy. So governments have no real choice.

 

It's different during times of war when it seems ok to put young people's lives (ours sons and daughters) on the front line.

[Bogbrush]

1 hour ago, Stevemercer said:

 

No, the real question is whether people want governments to put risk the economy or risk their parents, grandparents and other elderly people.

 

The cohort most at risk (elderly) are our parents, and no government can be seen to be sacrificing their lives for the economy. So governments have no real choice.

 

It's different during times of war when it seems ok to put young people's lives (ours sons and daughters) on the front line.

 

This is what his Lordship had to say on what the people want, and why.

 

The real problem is that when human societies lose their freedom, it's not usually because tyrants have taken it away. It's usually because people willingly surrender their freedom in return for protection against some external threat. And the threat is usually a real threat but usually exaggerated. That's what I fear we are seeing now. The pressure on politicians has come from the public. They want action. They don't pause to ask whether the action will work. They don't ask themselves whether the cost will be worth paying. They want action anyway. And anyone who has studied history will recognise here the classic symptoms of collective hysteria. Hysteria is infectious. We are working ourselves up into a lather in which we exaggerate the threat and stop asking ourselves whether the cure may be worse than the disease. 

[Jaggg88]

16 hours ago, Liverpoolfan said:

Two of my family members back in the UK have now been diagnosed with it.

Both said it's like pneumonia.

It's not like Pneumonia it is Pneumonia. The disease Covid 19 causes Pneumonia.

[Tony125]

17 hours ago, transam said:

This virus is a little different, in that you only need the slightest contact with it to go down, hence the pandemic... 

Can be spread by talking in close suroundings

[Tony125]

17 hours ago, Liverpoolfan said:

I think what is really hammering the fear home is the isolated cases of young and otherwise fit people catching it and dying.

It seems they are a very small minority but it's killing them nonetheless. 

This is what makes this virus so uncertain.

 

Two of my family members back in the UK have now been diagnosed with it.

Both said it's like pneumonia.

One has it worse than the other but both are now on the road to recovery.

 

It seems you never know how it will affect you until you get it.

That's the scary bit.

A high percentage of older persons will die but this virus can kill anyone  even without any underlying conditions.

 

https://www.the-sun.com/news/626402/mom-of-twin-boys-6-dies/?utm_medium=browser_notifications&utm_source=pushly

 

https://www.the-sun.com/news/629010/coronavirus-indiana-healthy-parents-son-video/?utm_medium=browser_notifications&utm_source=pushly

[Tengu]

This thread is tl;dr so likely I am repeating someone.

 

Death numbers get peoples' attention but are of little long term concern.

 

The importance of "social distancing" is to lower the incidence and thereby not overwhelm the medical and postmortem infrastructure. Ventilators, ICU beds, protective gear, etc. Lowering the incidence curve also allows the herd immunity to grow for the primary virus before it mutates too much and becomes immune to whatever treatments evolve.

 

The tragedy is we are an arrogant species that is smart enough to understand that there will be new viruses, sever earthquakes, tsunami, hurricane/typhoons/cyclones, and consequences of climate change. But we are not intelligent enough to be prepared.

 

???? 

[transam]

12 hours ago, rwill said:

A pandemic is when there is a new strain of a virus that is different enough from other strains that no one has immunity to it.

Correct, corvid is new, nobody has had so there is no immunity, plus it is not like our normal yearly varient of the flu. Below explains it more clearly...

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FVIGhz3uwuQ 

Edited April 3, 2020 by transam

[cornishcarlos]

 

 

Pretty interesting if accurate.... Not much more chance of dying from Covid than normal death rate, apart from the elderly !!

 

 

Edited April 3, 2020 by cornishcarlos

[Lacessit]

36 minutes ago, cornishcarlos said:

 

 

Pretty interesting if accurate.... Not much more chance of dying from Covid than normal death rate, apart from the elderly !!

 

 

I'm wondering if that graph would look the same if it was fed data from Spain and Italy instead of GB.

[Darkside Gray]

On 4/2/2020 at 8:30 AM, Nyezhov said:

Its a serious disease that is no more serious than any other of its ilk (flu) that spreads in densely populated areas and kills off the old, every year.

 

But it is also a political excersize, especially in the USA and its relations with China that folks can see unfolding about them. Thats where the fear and angst and hype come from.

 

In essense, its the first shot in a new Cold War. China fired up.

I think you need to look at the WHO report on C19 before making statements that it is no more dangerous than others of its ilk (Flu)

[Nyezhov]

7 minutes ago, Darkside Gray said:

I think you need to look at the WHO report on C19 before making statements that it is no more dangerous than others of its ilk (Flu)

Are you seriously contending that WHOs figures are correct?

[cornishcarlos]

45 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

I'm wondering if that graph would look the same if it was fed data from Spain and Italy instead of GB.

 

Probably...

[JDGRUEN]

When effective drug treatments are fully available, the public will be less influenced by scare mongering... See Below:

     There are at least Five (5) powerful treatment methods coming or are already online. When these methods are fully employed in majorly affected countries the long-term sickness (debilitating) and deaths rates from Covid-19 will be significantly reduced. The death rate for the elderly will drop significantly. Isolated cases of younger adults and children dying will become even more uncommon so as to become very rare.

    The First One of these new meds involves a blood transfusion to provide new oxygen carrying red blood cells . Another is an old standard using donated plasma containing antibodies from people who were infected and are now virus free... then injecting it via IV in to seriously ill patients. A new one is this company that has harvested five significant antibody molecules from SARS Virus in stored blood - then rearranging the molecular structure (which they have done already) then rolling out large quantities. This last stage is past startup. 

-The Fourth one is an Israeli company called Neurorx‏ is currently testing a drug called Aviptadil, which could treat acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), the condition responsible for around 50% of all corona virus fatalities. 

- The fifth one is Hydroxychloroquine available now, in combination with other drugs. 

Please read about the impressive results of a second

French Drug Trial as follows:

 

     Abstract... Professor Raoult...
     We need an effective treatment to cure COVID-19 patients and to decrease the virus carriage duration. In 80 in-patients receiving a combination of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin we noted a clinical improvement in all but one 86 year-old patient who died, and one 74 year- old patient still in intensive care unit. A rapid fall of nasopharyngeal viral load tested by qPCR was noted, with 83% negative at Day7, and 93% at Day8. Virus cultures from patient respiratory samples were negative in 97.5% patients at Day5. This allowed patients to rapidly be discharge from highly contagious wards with a mean length of stay of five days. We believe other teams should urgently evaluate this cost-effective therapeutic strategy, to both avoid the spread of the disease and treat patients as soon as possible before severe respiratory
irreversible complications take hold.

This treatment regime allowed patients to be out of isolated contagion intensive wards and convalesce with family. 

Trials of Hydroxychloroquine in combination with other drugs including known antivirals are being conducted by Boston Med Center and several other American medical centers. Plus trials of this drug are being performed  by WHO - the World Health Organization. 

NOTE: This drug is available in Thailand. If any one in Thailand who reads this and later becomes infected with Covid-19, then I implore you to have family members and friends beat on physicians' doors to get them to prescribe Hydroxychloroquine for you. This drug will save your life.         Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin are stocked in Thai Hospital Pharmacies. You can have this drug and if Covid-19 infected - you can get it. 

   

    By the way hydroxychloroquine / Plaquenil (and other brands are used by a million people everyday around the world for treatment of RA Rheumotoid Arthritis, Lupus and yes Malaria. 

Note: The French Government has approved hydroxychloroquine for physician use against Covid-19. The FDA - U. S. Food and Drug Admin has also authorized its use. 

Lastly - if any noid here wants to turn Hydroxychloroquine into a political football - then go ahead and be the fool. I have a mountain of articles to retort you political bias. 

[AlQaholic]

Annual death statistics:

Ischemic heart disease - 9.43 Million

Stroke - 5.78 Million

 

Communicable diseases:

TBC - 1.29 Million

HIV/AIDS - 1 Million

Malaria - 446 Thousands

Covid-19 - ?

Edited April 3, 2020 by AlQaholic

[cliveshep]

Referring to the OP's post 1 yes Covid - 19 is highly contagious and possibly selective of old and young, but in Thailand I read recently, I wish I could find the study again, how 270 odd THOUSAND people in Chiang Mai died early in 2017 because of the chronic air-pollution from slash and burn practices that so far the Government have shown they do not care to stop. Presumably the big agri-business owners are waving dollar bills in their faces to be allowed to continue the practice, why? But they are going to have meetings with Laos and Myanmar about smog coming over Thailand's borders - how hypocritical!

 

Meanwhile on the Covid - 19 fighting front, Prayut has ordered a curfew for everyone except those at work, driving food deliveries, medical, police etc - all the rest who are likely to be in bed anyway are not allowed out after 10.00pm until 4.00am. 

 

So that'll be a game changer won't it? And before anyone jumps in - extending a curfew brings it's own problems, adding in daytime hours means more people out on the streets in markets and shops buying food and medicines in the shortened shopping hours available thus forcing social distancing to become more difficult to achieve. 

 

Let's face it, options for this government to take decisive action were stupidly discarded long ago back in January in favour of tourist revenue when they refused to heed pleas to prevent Chinese visitors arriving, the rest is, as they say, history. The horse has long since bolted but we'll shut the door anyway. At least closing borders now will prevent some infected persons coming in while they, it is alleged, create quarantine centres for them.

[AlQaholic]

NASA Fire map, last 24 hours....

https://firms2.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/map/#z:5;c:104.3,16.2;d:2020-04-02..2020-04-03

[AlQaholic]

I don't know where the cases reported by the Thai authorities come from, but I suspect they are the ones detected coming to hospitals only, just like for example Sweden was doing until recently (Yeah, I'm following the situation in Sweden because I'm Swedish). The actual number of infected people are not represented by those numbers reported, just to be clear.

Edited April 3, 2020 by AlQaholic

[transam]

2 minutes ago, pdtokyo said:

Posted 5 hours ago (edited)

  18 hours ago, rwill said:

A pandemic is when there is a new strain of a virus that is different enough from other strains that no one has immunity to it.

Correct, corvid is new, nobody has had so there is no immunity, plus it is not like our normal yearly varient of the flu. Below explains it more clearly...

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FVIGhz3uwuQ 

Edited 5 hours ago by transam

 

Just a thought but maybe they could give Coronavirus COVID-19 a snappier first name like 'New' or 'Unknown' or 'Previously unseen''or something ...

Yes, I posted that earlier.......????

[Logosone]

16 hours ago, Tropposurfer said:

This virus is not the flu nor like it! Please stop making reference to it as somehow the same as flu ... it is not.

 

It is a far more dangerous form of influenza.

 

It is far more contagious than flu (as far as world health experts are reporting).

 

It can be contagious (reported by health experts as HIGHLY contagious [ far i excess of common flu viruses] and HIGHLY resilient i.e. its half life outside the body) without the carrier knowing they are sick at all.

 

It begins with mild, or no symptoms then rapidly goes directly to pneumonia [unlike flu] and with (as far as statistics are showing) up to a maximum of 10% of those infected dying despite intensive interventive care (the average is around 5% worldwide). Extrapolate these figures, with no 'cure' in sight and you see huge numbers dying - far beyond that of common flu strains that seasonally affect people.

 

Extrapolate this into countries where healthcare is all but non-existent and the death rate will be far greater and very likely in the many millions. 

 

Pneumonia by itself is very different, and far, far more dangerous compared to the usually upper bronchial infection of flu, add to this impact of the virus in the body with the way in which this virus infests the cells and it is again far more dangerous than common seasonal flu. 

 

Covid has shown itself to mutate rapidly into new and very virile forms of Covid e.g. Italian and Spanish experience.

 

There are no vaccines and no antibiotic treatments for this non-human originating virus. 

No, it's not the case that SARS Cov2 (Covid19 is the illness) mutates rapidly. They've found quite the opposite actually, that SARS Cov2 mutates very little, as indeed is the case generally with coronaviruses when compared to influenza viruses. The Chinese study that suggested that Italy and Spain got a more virulent strain has been shown to be faulty, inaccurate and unreliable.

 

Also your mortality figures are completely false.

 

That is probably why you, falsely, think that the SARS Cov2 pandemic is more dangerous than past flu pandemics which is of course not the case. The flu pandemics had significantly higher mortality rates.

 

Edited April 3, 2020 by Logosone