Herd Immunity vs Lockdown

[ExpatOilWorker]

4 weeks of lock-down seems to do the trick.

Italy, Norway and Denmark are now seeing a drop in ICU patients.

 

Edited April 4, 2020 by ExpatOilWorker

[RJRS1301]

3 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

4 weeks of lock-down seems to do the trick.

Italy, Norway and Denmark are now seeing a drop in ICU patients.

 

Australia is also seing a "flattening" of the curve after two weeks, fall occurring in second week, but early days. Australia has also introduced massive support programs for those either stood down, etc

[JackGats]

Interestingly, proponents of hard lockdowns are now changing their tale from "avoiding massive deaths" to "preventing hospitals from being temporarily overloaded".

[RJRS1301]

1 hour ago, JackGats said:

Interestingly, proponents of hard lockdowns are now changing their tale from "avoiding massive deaths" to "preventing hospitals from being temporarily overloaded".

LOckdowns along with social distancing, (and mass testing),can achieve both, they are not mutually exclusive

Edited April 5, 2020 by RJRS1301

[rabas]

1 hour ago, JackGats said:

Interestingly, proponents of hard lockdowns are now changing their tale from "avoiding massive deaths" to "preventing hospitals from being temporarily overloaded".

The tale is yet to be told.

 

Recent concern about hospital overload is due to recent rapid increases in cases and death overloading hospitals. Now just imagine letting the thing run wild to infect 4 billion people at a 100X rate. See the problem?

[from the home of CC]

16 hours ago, BritManToo said:

Sure, but the lives that are likely lost are mostly from those worthless to society.

(I'm 65 and accept my fate, whatever that may be)

many of the lives lost are in the medical profession..

[from the home of CC]

22 hours ago, pdtokyo said:

maybe not that simple ... any resources put into dealing with problem A ... for example CV19 ... are by definition not being expended on problems B, C, D etc ... for example cancer therapy, malaria, smoking prevention ...

 

At some point, the resources put into either maintaining a lockdown (or dealing with consequences of releasing a lockdown) will divert into the next problem that floats to the top of the pile ... which may be B, X, Y or Z.

 

Nobody controls this stuff, it all happens as a result of squillions of individual decisions and random natural events. 

 

I can't see a TV poll making things any clearer.

 

 

with the right prep after SARS many nations could of avoided numerous deaths, although it would of cost money..

[Logosone]

6 hours ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

4 weeks of lock-down seems to do the trick.

Italy, Norway and Denmark are now seeing a drop in ICU patients.

 

It's not the lockdown.

 

It's because of increased testing and isolating the affected.

 

That is done behind the scenes, but because everyone is asked to do sd, and the governments keep going on about it the focus is on sd and it is uppermost in everyone's mind. However, a chinese study tried to determine if a sd measure had a certain effect and the chinese conclued it was not possible to determine, because a variety of measures were thrown at the virus simultaneously and it was not possible to attribute a specific reduction figure to each one.

 

Just because everyone is talking about and thinking of lockdown and social distancing, or even doing it, doesn't mean that it is having the most effect. More likely the testing and isolating being done quietly behind the scenes has the bigger effect.

Edited April 5, 2020 by Logosone

[JackGats]

If you lockdown 300 people into a building you're preventing the virus from spreading, right? Now what if you lock down 300 people into a cruise ship? Oh no this won't do at all! Allegedly because cruise ships are quite different from residential buildings in terms of human interactions. But are they? Maybe a building where people are forced to stay inside 90% of the time is much more like a cruise ship than we think.

 

If the ideal prevention could be modelled it would look something like this. People should spend as much time as they can at least 1.5 metre from anyone else. Is locking people inside their homes the best way to achive this? If people lived alone in detached houses it would.

 

Locking people inside buildings is appealing because of the out-of-sight effect. Plus the punishing effect. Maybe people should be allowed out only as flagellants. Penitenziagite!

 

Fear not advocates of hard lockdowns. You will need only to say by a hard lockdown you have avoided the worst.

[sandyf]

17 hours ago, jimn said:

I believe although I may be wrong that this was the UK governments policy before the hysterical media forced them to change.

Certainly the rhetoric was in that direction but I don't think it was ever clarified as being official policy.

[sandyf]

22 hours ago, Brewster67 said:

Sweden, no lockdowns, pubs open, no fines or curfews, zero restrictions.

 

Average rate of new cases daily

Sweden = 9%

UK =13%

USA = 15%

France = 20%

 

Different countries, different level of exposure. I don't think that Sweden could be seen in the same league as an aviation hub as the likes of UK, US and France.

Transit passengers are the great unknown and they share the same departure lounge as outbound passengers.

Even passengers from a country that has no record of the disease are a risk if they have passed through another airport.

 

[scubascuba3]

1 hour ago, from the home of CC said:

many of the lives lost are in the medical profession..

That seems to be because they get a big dose of the virus, bigger the dose worse the symptoms

[from the home of CC]

1 hour ago, Logosone said:

It's not the lockdown.

 

It's because of increased testing and isolating the affected.

 

That is done behind the scenes, but because everyone is asked to do sd, and the governments keep going on about it the focus is on sd and it is uppermost in everyone's mind. However, a chinese study tried to determine if a sd measure had a certain effect and the chinese conclued it was not possible to determine, because a variety of measures were thrown at the virus simultaneously and it was not possible to attribute a specific reduction figure to each one.

 

Just because everyone is talking about and thinking of lockdown and social distancing, or even doing it, doesn't mean that it is having the most effect. More likely the testing and isolating being done quietly behind the scenes has the bigger effect.

testing is just counting, no real effect at all unless you isolate imo..

[RJRS1301]

Multi pronged approach required.

No one measure will have the greatest impact. IMO

[UbonThani]

6 hours ago, JackGats said:

Interestingly, proponents of hard lockdowns are now changing their tale from "avoiding massive deaths" to "preventing hospitals from being temporarily overloaded".

Like the co2 people

Global warming got changed tp climate change

Now nothing

The Corona death cult took over!

 

Bizarre people.

 

50m die each year no big deal

 

Then they try to con and scare us

[richard_smith237]

6 hours ago, JackGats said:

Interestingly, proponents of hard lockdowns are now changing their tale from "avoiding massive deaths" to "preventing hospitals from being temporarily overloaded".

Both are the same thing. Avoiding hospitals from being overloaded is avoiding massive numbers of deaths. 

[BritManToo]

2 hours ago, JackGats said:

If you lockdown 300 people into a building you're preventing the virus from spreading, right? Now what if you lock down 300 people into a cruise ship? Oh no this won't do at all! Allegedly because cruise ships are quite different from residential buildings in terms of human interactions. But are they? Maybe a building where people are forced to stay inside 90% of the time is much more like a cruise ship than we think.

It would depend if the building provided 'buffet lunches' where the food is left out for hours and everyone gets to use the same serving spoons.

Edited April 5, 2020 by BritManToo

[richard_smith237]

2 hours ago, JackGats said:

If you lockdown 300 people into a building you're preventing the virus from spreading, right? Now what if you lock down 300 people into a cruise ship? Oh no this won't do at all! Allegedly because cruise ships are quite different from residential buildings in terms of human interactions. But are they? Maybe a building where people are forced to stay inside 90% of the time is much more like a cruise ship than we think.

Perhaps more similar to a hotel. But cannot be compared to peoples homes and condos.

 

Same source of food (kitchens), drinks etc, Same source of Laundry, shared central Air-conditioning systems...   

 

 

[dluek]

Herd immunity vs. endless restrictions - this is the wrong question.

 

It's about testing. Mass testing is the key to ending this whole nightmare in 3-6 months. Thai scientists have developed a 15-minute covid test. I really hope the authorities are doing everything possible to mass produce and then mass administer these tests all over Thailand. That is the key.

[allanos]

Governments' responses to the impact of Covid-19 are being guided by so-called "scientific" modelling.  A possible flaw here is that, like all programming, rubbish in equals rubbish out. For my money, there is way too much disparity between the models being offered up for there to be much credibility in the system.  In the UK, are 20 000 deaths predicted or 240 000 deaths?  In the USA, is it a quarter million, or 2.5 million?

 

Because, it seems, many governments also want to ramp up the extent of the fatalities, "underlying medical conditions", which may be the proximate cause of death, seem to take a back seat if Covid-19 is present in a patient, however minute the presence of the virus is.  If this surmise is correct, than the figures are being massaged, and, as is so often the case, we "mushrooms" are left in the dark and fed a load of manure!

Edited April 5, 2020 by allanos
typo

[richard_smith237]

27 minutes ago, UbonThani said:

Like the co2 people

Global warming got changed tp climate change

Now nothing

The Corona death cult took over!

 

Bizarre people.

 

50m die each year no big deal

 

Then they try to con and scare us

You mean pretty much every government of every country in the world has shut its borders and is prepared to face economic turmoil because they want to ‘con and scare us’...  To what end? for what means? 

 

People like you will answer “to control us” do what end, for what means?

 

Who is really bizarre? The world governments advised by experts or the guy thumping away on a keyboard who’s only point seems to be “they try to con and scare us” with no valid reasoning?

 

I’m thinking "Tin-foil hat wearing, flat-earther, moon-landing & 9-11 conspiracy loving, gun-toting’ second amendment rights signing all American nutcase” !!

[richard_smith237]

4 minutes ago, dluek said:

Herd immunity vs. endless restrictions - this is the wrong question.

 

It's about testing. Mass testing is the key to ending this whole nightmare in 3-6 months. Thai scientists have developed a 15-minute covid test. I really hope the authorities are doing everything possible to mass produce and then mass administer these tests all over Thailand. That is the key.

A good point.

 

I’m wondering, if we have ‘had Covid-19’ can we still transmit the virus if we contract it again?

 

I suspect so. Thus, immunity still presents a risk for those at risk who have no immunity - thus those who have not already had Covid-19 and remain in the high risk groups will still have to isolate to protect themselves - but at in this way the impact on the economy would be less devastating. 

 

I can see a world where the youngsters go out and party, the olds go out and party but risk their lives doing so. 

 

[BKKBike09]

20 hours ago, richard_smith237 said:

The critical businesses are still open. The problem people have with this is that they are unable to handle that their job or their business is not essential / critical. 

 

The governments around the world have one shot to get this right - we are all in lock down together, if this fails the second wave could be devastating because people will not endure a second lock down. This is why this lock down happened a little late, the media and populace had to be brought onside first. 

 

A couple of things could happen from here on in: Once more is known about the actual risk and impact of this virus those in low risk groups can go back to work but maintain social distancing to minimise the spread, while those in high risk groups remain isolated until proper treatment / medication becomes available. 

 

I don’t think we’re at that point yet, there is a lot of talk of flattening the curve which hasn’t happened yet, but now we’ve been in isolation for a few weeks we should start to see the effects of preventative measures soon. 

 

 

"The problem people have with this is that they are unable to handle that their job or their business is not essential / critical" - If your salary is the only income you / your family have, whether in Bangkok, Birmingham, Bukavu, Bogota, wherever, then that job is "essential / critical". 

 

"we are all in lock down together" - no, we are not. Those of us who have the privilege of internet access, food in the fridge, aircon,  savings, personal space in which to 'sit it out', have no conception what it must be like for the hundreds of millions of urban dwellers who have none of those comforts.

 

Spare me.

 

 

[Krataiboy]

On 4/4/2020 at 1:15 PM, BritManToo said:

I always understood 'herd immunity' to be the process where you vaccinated as many as possible, so the few still at risk couldn't catch it from anyone else. As there is no vaccination for COVID-19 there can be no herd immunity.

The only other way to achieve herd immunity is to let everyone who can be infected, get infected, and the survivors will have acquired a natural resistance to the virus.

 

But I guess you can't fix stupid.

Brits may already be well on the way to achieving herd immunity, as some experts believe up to half the population has already been infected.

 

Vaccines - particularly those not taken orally - have a chequered history and are not always effective against fast-mutating virus such as the current Son of Sars.

 

The corona express will eventually run out of steam. Until it does, the priority should be to reduce the mortality rate. This will best be achieved by isolating the elderly, who account for the overwhelming majority of deaths, from a general population awash with asymptomatic virus carriers.

 

[scubascuba3]

23 minutes ago, dluek said:

Herd immunity vs. endless restrictions - this is the wrong question.

 

It's about testing. Mass testing is the key to ending this whole nightmare in 3-6 months. Thai scientists have developed a 15-minute covid test. I really hope the authorities are doing everything possible to mass produce and then mass administer these tests all over Thailand. That is the key.

I can't see the Thais doing mass testing for weeks\months if ever, they are several weeks behind other countries and have never shown any interest in extensive testing

[allanos]

27 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

You mean pretty much every government of every country in the world has shut its borders and is prepared to face economic turmoil because they want to ‘con and scare us’...  To what end? for what means? 

 

People like you will answer “to control us” do what end, for what means?

 

Who is really bizarre? The world governments advised by experts or the guy thumping away on a keyboard who’s only point seems to be “they try to con and scare us” with no valid reasoning?

 

I’m thinking "Tin-foil hat wearing, flat-earther, moon-landing & 9-11 conspiracy loving, gun-toting’ second amendment rights signing all American nutcase” !!

Being paranoid doesn't mean that the bastards aren't out to get you! ????

Edited April 5, 2020 by allanos
typo

[garygooner]

I hope life will return to some kind of normality soon for the sake of the economy. However, frequent hand washing, social distancing, wearing masks in crowded places should be kept. If you have a fever, cough you must stay home until it passes. Events such as football, boxing and concerts should be canceled further. How long can businesses & schools remain closed? 

[RJRS1301]

I have to wonder about the efficacy of the alledged 15 minute test from Thailand. 

I would have to be persuaded with studies from external labs from overseas as their reliabilty.

Australian Border Force has siezed ineffective, non approved test kits being imported from China 

[Surasak]

22 hours ago, UbonThani said:

18m deaths from heart disease. No lockdowns of fast food. No panic.

 

Roads kill 1.25m a year. No lockdowns of car factories. No panic.

 

Conjob19 is here.

 

 

I am very much inclined to agree. The question being, 'Is it a con job'? So I will ask all who subscribe here to state, Do you personally, 100% know, anyone who has died from this virus? Might sound a silly question, but of all my friends, of which there are many and my family both here and abroad, none have been able to point to one single case, of either suffering or death directly attributed to this virus.

[richard_smith237]

34 minutes ago, BKKBike09 said:

20 hours ago, richard_smith237 said:

The critical businesses are still open. The problem people have with this is that they are unable to handle that their job or their business is not essential / critical. 

 

The governments around the world have one shot to get this right - we are all in lock down together, if this fails the second wave could be devastating because people will not endure a second lock down. This is why this lock down happened a little late, the media and populace had to be brought onside first. 

 

A couple of things could happen from here on in: Once more is known about the actual risk and impact of this virus those in low risk groups can go back to work but maintain social distancing to minimise the spread, while those in high risk groups remain isolated until proper treatment / medication becomes available. 

 

I don’t think we’re at that point yet, there is a lot of talk of flattening the curve which hasn’t happened yet, but now we’ve been in isolation for a few weeks we should start to see the effects of preventative measures soon. 

 

 

"The problem people have with this is that they are unable to handle that their job or their business is not essential / critical" - If your salary is the only income you / your family have, whether in Bangkok, Birmingham, Bukavu, Bogota, wherever, then that job is "essential / critical". 

 

"we are all in lock down together" - no, we are not. Those of us who have the privilege of internet access, food in the fridge, aircon,  savings, personal space in which to 'sit it out', have no conception what it must be like for the hundreds of millions of urban dwellers who have none of those comforts.

 

Spare me.

Spare you what? the consideration of a response to an utterly ill thought out argument. 

 

You misunderstand the terms Critical and Essential - What is essential or critical to you and I is not necessarily essential to the continuing function of the community.

If you are a Doctor (I have strong suspicions you are not) then your job is critical. If you are refuse collector (more probable), your job is also critical / essential to the well being of a community. If you are running a beer bar in Pattaya, no matter what you think, your business is not essential or critical to the continuing function of the community. 

 

We ARE all in lock down together (nothing to do with comfort or privilege) and everything to do with all following the same regulations together, to protect each other, no matter who we are. 

The fact that those you mentioned ‘who have none of the comforts’ may be in the highest risk groups without access to medical care highlights your absolute and total ignorance of a real issue when instead you choose to bring up ‘privilege and comfort’ which just means some will find isolation more difficult, but no less important. 

 

Of course we’re all in it together - when the virus continues to spread too quickly (and overwhelm the health services) because of a few of us it will impact all of us - I can’t believe people not intelligent enough to grasp this already. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 5, 2020 by richard_smith237