Mass-testing not that effective in battle against contagion

By Wichit Chaitrong
The Nation

 

 

Contact tracing has proved to be the most effective in Thailand in the battle against the Covid-19 outbreak, government officials say.

 

However, due to Thailand’s limited resources, it cannot afford mass screening to uncover new infections, Taweesin Visanuyothin, spokesman of the Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration (CCSA), said on Monday (April 13).

 

He pointed to the lesson learned from Thailand’s top tourist destination Phuket, which got hit by the highest number of infections, 44.03 cases for every 100,000 people, followed by Bangkok at 23.03 and Yala at 15.72.

 

Of the total 2,579 cases in Thailand as of Monday, 182 are in Phuket alone, compared to 1,306 in Bangkok and 150 in Nonthaburi.

 

Bangkok’s population is 8.281 million versus just 416,582 in Phuket and 254,375 in Nonthaburi. 

 

In Phuket, the first infection was found on January 26 and the numbers have been rising rapidly, leading to a severe lockdown. 

 

In response to criticism about the lack of mass screening, Taweesin cited four hospitals that have conducted tests on fairly large sample groups and found relatively low rate of infections. For instance, Patong Hospital tested 1,712 people and found 19 infections or just 1.11 per cent; Vachira Phuket Hospital tested 763 and found 2 infections or just 0.26 per cent; while Cherngtalay (Thalang) Hospital conducted 103 tests and found 5 infections or 4.85 per cent, which is very large. In comparison, Thalang Hospital tested 337 people and found no infections, he said. 

 

“Judging by these statistics, contact tracing has proved to be the most cost-effective and efficient means of finding infections,” he said. 

 

The CCSA has highlighted four key lessons learned from the Covid-19 battle: 

 

1. Those in high-risk contact groups have to be identified, and to ensure this measure is effective, the authorities need to enforce strict screening measures and the police have to step in and identify those evading the process; 

 

2. Those in high-risk contact groups have to be completely isolated; 

 

3. Active hunting for cases has to be applied to communities that have a high rate of infections or when contact tracing cannot be applied to all high-risk people; 

 

4. Mass screening is not cost effective as the rate of infection is not high enough. 

 

In response to criticism that Thailand’s number of cases is low because the authorities have been testing far too few people, Taweesin said mass screening is very expensive and does not guarantee success. 

 

Meanwhile, in a separate interview with The Nation, Somchai Jitsuchon, research director at Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI), said he agrees that contact tracing is the most effective measure to identify new infections. “But it should be combined with other measures. The best combination varies from place to place and how far the virus has spread,” he said.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30385921

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2020-04-14

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Well at least we now have some idea of the number of tests carried out at some hospitals.  Much  better than keeping everything a secret

That is one way to keep the number of cases to a minimum.

If you believe this you probably believe there is no prostitution in Thailand, Pattaya is a family destination and tourism is up by 30% this year. 

3 hours ago, webfact said:

4. Mass screening is not cost effective as the rate of infection is not high enough. 

The rate of infection is not high enough to warrant testing but it's high enough to shut down the country and the economy.Thailand has an average of 2700 deaths each year so I guess we can look forward to a permanent lock down to save even more lives from a disease which kills about 50 times more people than C19 in Thailand.

3 hours ago, webfact said:

 

In Phuket, the first infection was found on January 26

 

Really ????

 

When was the first case reported in Phuket ??

Pretty sure they kept saying there were no cases in Phuket, right up until Pattaya got closed down !! 

Huh ? No valid reason to shut down then is there ? Fence em in then pick em off one at a time..55

Now there is an explanation from people involved directly in the situation. Here we have a spokesperson from the Covid-19 control centre and a director from a research institute. Still we have the TVF Negative Brigade that puts themself over all of this and knows better. Hilarious! When is it time to understand that stupid looks stupid enough?

Social distancing in Pattaya on walking street in the bars w those sex workers???? Hahaha 

better stay in Isan sweetheart! 

14 minutes ago, Matzzon said:

Now there is an explanation from people involved directly in the situation. Here we have a spokesperson from the Covid-19 control centre and a director from a research institute. Still we have the TVF Negative Brigade that puts themself over all of this and knows better. Hilarious! When is it time to understand that stupid looks stupid enough?

 

An explanation from people who are not known for telling 100% truth, and that's being generous...

 

From the OP " In Phuket, the first infection was found on January 26"

 

https://thethaiger.com/coronavirus/first-cases-of-covid-19-announced-in-phuket 

20th March, which is when they actually admitted that Phuket had the virus !!

14 minutes ago, cornishcarlos said:

An explanation from people who are not known for telling 100% truth, and that's being generous...

But you are always basing your posts on facts and substantial information? Really, it´s nice to have you here as the rock we can all rely on. 

Also you take a newspaper as source for disputing other facts. Yep, that´s right!" We all know that everything that stands in the press is true.

Well at last a little bit of transperancy. What this tells us is the number of infections officially given is low because of lack of testing. Of course contact tracing is essential but this only happens when someone infected is picked up, and in Thalaind's case probably means they have presented to hospital, from which tracing can present. What this means is R0 comes in to play. People infecting people infecting people. 

4 hours ago, webfact said:

In response to criticism that Thailand’s number of cases is low because the authorities have been testing far too few people, Taweesin said mass screening is very expensive and does not guarantee success. 

This is basically saying we'll wait for infected people to present. Admittedly NPI's are imperative but should be used in conjungtion with test, test, test, confirm, isolate and trace. Thailand by admission is not doing the test, test, test hence the low daily infection numbers. 

4 hours ago, webfact said:

However, due to Thailand’s limited resources,

By cons when it comes to buying used submarines in China or millions of ammunition, finding the money is very easy

Corpses tell no lies 

The probem will be when the schools begin july 1,it is a very dangerous way to keep the cases so low,we will need live with this virus for months,we know it is very expensiv to test everyone but it is the only way to trace and isolate for a quarantine and avoid a desaster like Italy.I hope this is the good choice they do for the population.

17 minutes ago, Matzzon said:

Now there is an explanation from people involved directly in the situation. Here we have a spokesperson from the Covid-19 control centre and a director from a research institute. Still we have the TVF Negative Brigade that puts themself over all of this and knows better. Hilarious! When is it time to understand that stupid looks stupid enough?

400.000 people on phuket 

What is it he knows 

The first case a Danish family 

I'm sure they are in the 400.000 residential 

There are more than a million people here probably 2

but no body knows the exact amount 

Non of these officials knows to much of reality 

Secondly they way they respond is with a fair deal of danger of being more lethal than covid 19.

But I think without knowing its in there interest more than the thais. 

Only in khon kaen where some of our family stays are there some help. 

This area is in opposition of the government 

If that have something to do with the help for the poor you can only guess or at least the willingness. 

In Bangkok and phuket only rich people get help as far as I know 

I asked around throughout all my contacts and it seems like I said that goes for Bangkok too. 

It's not perfect but it gives an idea. 

On top off this the most off the 400.000 residents on phuket have private health insurance which means the private hospitals will take them. 

as I'm told by my insurance agent he is a friend of mine and have more 300 staffs so that's not perfect either but a good indication. 

It means public hospitals will not be overloaded with those people 

It's only the ones who is not registered here.

that's why the 400.000 is a statement with no knowledge 

The district lock down is a disgrace 

And a sign of a governor who is out of reach for commen sense. 

I give you sometimes people reply bashing but in this case it's reasonable and surely questionable actions provided by those in charge. 

And especially as they provide themselves with amnesty 

 

 

 

Where are the tests from?

54 minutes ago, Matzzon said:

Now there is an explanation from people involved directly in the situation. Here we have a spokesperson from the Covid-19 control centre and a director from a research institute. Still we have the TVF Negative Brigade that puts themself over all of this and knows better. Hilarious! When is it time to understand that stupid looks stupid enough?

There you go twisting and turning things around again and I'm not at all surprised!Is it better to question those in the situation or to accept what they say without question?To ask questions is not a statement saying we know better (maybe we don't maybe we do).Also he is judging the success of testing regimes based purely on cost efficiency not on the success or not on health benefits and reducing the number of deaths,should that approach not be questioned?To base your testing regime based purely in financial efficiency and admitting it surely would incur a major loss of face in the international health community.Would you applaud such lunacy?Would put the amount of money you could save before the amount of lives you could save in deciding wether to test or not and then admit it publicly? 

13 minutes ago, martinhp said:

400.000 people on phuket 

What is it he knows 

The first case a Danish family 

I'm sure they are in the 400.000 residential 

There are more than a million people here probably 2

but no body knows the exact amount 

Non of these officials knows to much of reality 

Secondly they way they respond is with a fair deal of danger of being more lethal than covid 19.

But I think without knowing its in there interest more than the thais. 

Only in khon kaen where some of our family stays are there some help. 

This area is in opposition of the government 

If that have something to do with the help for the poor you can only guess or at least the willingness. 

In Bangkok and phuket only rich people get help as far as I know 

I asked around throughout all my contacts and it seems like I said that goes for Bangkok too. 

It's not perfect but it gives an idea. 

On top off this the most off the 400.000 residents on phuket have private health insurance which means the private hospitals will take them. 

as I'm told by my insurance agent he is a friend of mine and have more 300 staffs so that's not perfect either but a good indication. 

It means public hospitals will not be overloaded with those people 

It's only the ones who is not registered here.

that's why the 400.000 is a statement with no knowledge 

The district lock down is a disgrace 

And a sign of a governor who is out of reach for commen sense. 

I give you sometimes people reply bashing but in this case it's reasonable and surely questionable actions provided by those in charge. 

And especially as they provide themselves with amnesty 

 

 

 

No problem! You know better. You have more common sense as well as more things to support "your facts" 

19 minutes ago, Kullstar said:

Corpses tell no lies 

They don't tell the truth either!

1 hour ago, FarFlungFalang said:

The rate of infection is not high enough to warrant testing but it's high enough to shut down the country and the economy.Thailand has an average of 2700 deaths each year so I guess we can look forward to a permanent lock down to save even more lives from a disease which kills about 50 times more people than C19 in Thailand.

??? I think you dreaming, Thailand has 555.000 deaths per year, or 1535 per day, and again ... if people believe they will put the country economy down to save 3 extra deaths per day ...then there are more dreamers ????

Well, it's what was obvious from the git go, no testing = low numbers. 

1 minute ago, Matzzon said:

No problem! You know better. You have more common sense as well as more things to support "your facts" 

 

I've noticed that you never actually have an opinion on a topic !!

 

All you do is try to belittle people for questioning things. 

I did a tiny bit of research to find the article I linked, you just try to be the big man by treading on others inputs..

How about you actually think, for yourself, rather than just come on here to troll ??

31 minutes ago, cornishcarlos said:

 

What is quite obvious from the linked report, which you omitted from your quote, is that they were trying to cover it up...

They even tried to avoid answering a straight question !!

 

These people lie... Full stop

When they get busted lying they then sue for defamation ????

Yes Sir! You know better than everyone. This is a cover-up, conspiracy or what ever nice word you can find to fit your agenda.

Maybe you should understand a little bit better than just coming up with unsupported fairytales.

4 minutes ago, Incobart said:

??? I think you dreaming, Thailand has 555.000 deaths per year, or 1535 per day, and again ... if people believe they will put the country economy down to save 3 extra deaths per day ...then there are more dreamers ????

If you calculate the corona deaths comparing to other countries that give correct figures than there must be 1200 c-deaths extra per day, should that be a reason to lock down ?

2 hours ago, Toany said:

Well at least we now have some idea of the number of tests carried out at some hospitals.  Much  better than keeping everything a secret

Maybe.  But it does make one wonder about how, why and where the test individuals were selected.  Careful selection of test subjects can be relied upon to skew the result any desired statistic.

Is it true that Thais have to pay to get tested? That would definitely explain the extremely low numbers of infected in Thailand in comparison to countries that have had infections for an equal amount of time. 

10 minutes ago, cornishcarlos said:

 

I've noticed that you never actually have an opinion on a topic !!

 

All you do is try to belittle people for questioning things. 

I did a tiny bit of research to find the article I linked, you just try to be the big man by treading on others inputs..

How about you actually think, for yourself, rather than just come on here to troll ??

Now we use the word troll, again. I have many opinions of my own, that I post early in the morning. After that I get replies, and follow up on those, at the same time that I read other posts that I confront because I have another opinion. Sometimes you get replies like my last post to you. That is because you put yourself as a person that knows more than the ones actually involved. All that I do is what a forum and a discussion board is about and for. That has nothing to do with trolling. In that case I could say that you are trolling by posting your version of things to try and sway the community, due to that you have no support for your information.

16 minutes ago, Incobart said:

??? I think you dreaming, Thailand has 555.000 deaths per year, or 1535 per day, and again ... if people believe they will put the country economy down to save 3 extra deaths per day ...then there are more dreamers ????

 

PubMed Central, Table 2: Influenza Other Respir Viruses. 2015 Nov; 9(6): 298–304. Published online 2.webarchive

"Taweesin said mass screening is very expensive and does not guarantee success."

 

Its a pity nobody questioned him about the high percentage 25 - 50% of positive COVID 19 cases that are asymptomatic and the only way to stop them infecting others is to do mass testing.

 

TEST TEST TEST is the only way along with contact tracing and everything else, the fact he has admitted that money is first before lives is a disgrace.