Why is Thailand not reopening?

[DaRoadrunner]

5 minutes ago, Monomial said:

 

Hopefully what the government has the sense to see is that the minimal additional health risks are nothing compared to the absolute certainty of economic evisceration and misery that is being caused by this failed policy of lockdown.

 

Waiting any longer is absolutely idiotic. Flattening the curve won't work. We have to open back up and deal with the virus as nature intended. Spend any additional money on preparing our hospitals better to handle more patients and give better care to those who need it. It will be cheaper and better in the long run.

 

People like you are going to get lots of us killed. Those who have already been infected have failed to acquire immunity. We must remain on lockdown until it dies out or we have a vaccine or better treatments.

[ukrules]

2 hours ago, DaRoadrunner said:

Those who have already been infected have failed to acquire immunity.

Edge cases, far less than those who have died.

 

I read somewhere that China wasn't 'releasing' patients until they 'passed' an antibody test but I'm not sure how accurate that was.

Edited April 15, 2020 by ukrules

[mauGR1]

6 hours ago, DaRoadrunner said:

People like you are going to get lots of us killed. Those who have already been infected have failed to acquire immunity. We must remain on lockdown until it dies out or we have a vaccine or better treatments.

Obviously you don't need to work to get some food on the table, otherwise you would think differently.

I don't want to scare you, but while waiting for the miraculous vaccine, you might find out that your ivory tower is surrounded by millions of people desperate for food.

[sandyf]

13 hours ago, chessman said:

What I'm saying is that a pandemic that starts to kill people exponentially is potentially a bigger threat. If the death toll is doubling every 5 days then that requires urgent attention and extreme measures.

Exactly. Saying that more people die from something else is an invalid argument as the total number of deaths from covid-19 is as yet unknown.

It will be a long time yet before there is any real basis for comparison.

[sandyf]

1 hour ago, mauGR1 said:

Obviously you don't need to work to get some food on the table, otherwise you would think differently.

I don't want to scare you, but while waiting for the miraculous vaccine, you might find out that your ivory tower is surrounded by millions of people desperate for food.

You mean like the UK, importing the workers.

 

With scheduled aviation almost completely shut down due to the coronavirus pandemic, UK farmers are chartering planes to bring in workers to pick fruit and vegetables.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/coronavirus-farmers-charter-flights-fruit-pickers-foreign-workers-romania-bucharest-stansted-a9466361.html

[mauGR1]

2 minutes ago, sandyf said:

You mean like the UK, importing the workers.

 

With scheduled aviation almost completely shut down due to the coronavirus pandemic, UK farmers are chartering planes to bring in workers to pick fruit and vegetables.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/coronavirus-farmers-charter-flights-fruit-pickers-foreign-workers-romania-bucharest-stansted-a9466361.html

Something similar happening in Italy.

I just wonder if there are not enough young, healthy unemployed local people who are willing to do the job.

[smutcakes]

15 hours ago, AussieBob18 said:

OK - so you havent read previous posts. Italy and Spain had lockdowns - didnt work.

Not a fact that the lockdowns reduced the numbers that much - speculation.

The herd idea is to do the Sweden model - I detailed that earlier - 20s to 50s deal with it - 70 plus isolated.

Vast majority of deaths are over 80s.  In Aust we have had one under 60 die - 50 year old with medical problems.

Make the old ones safe - let the young ones catch and develop immunities - virus dies out.

That is because the evidence shows the mortality rate under 50 is same as seasonal flu.

 

 

 

I have seen a number of reports that suggest the bold bit is a simply a lie?

[mstevens]

9 hours ago, DaRoadrunner said:

We must remain on lockdown until it dies out or we have a vaccine or better treatments.

 

And there is no guarantee that any of these 3 things will happen. The vaccine especially strikes me as pie in the sky stuff. A professor from supposedly the world's best university some weeks ago said that that week self-test kits would be available in the UK with an initial production run of 3 million. Nothing ever came. A vaccine in 12 - 18 months? Given there has been no vaccine for other coronaviruses, I am not sure why so many are convinced one is coming.

[yuyiinthesky]

24 minutes ago, mstevens said:

A vaccine in 12 - 18 months? Given there has been no vaccine for other coronaviruses, I am not sure why so many are convinced one is coming.

Sure it will come, it's too good of a business to let it pass. Right, Bill Gates?

If it works is another problem, not really important anymore after it is sold.

[yuyiinthesky]

1 hour ago, smutcakes said:

I have seen a number of reports that suggest the bold bit is a simply a lie?

The bold bit, which was 

"That is because the evidence shows the mortality rate under 50 is same as seasonal flu."

reminds me of this Article "Covid-19 — Navigating the Uncharted" in the New England Journal of Medicine, by Dr Anthony S. Fauci, the top USA expert:
 

Quote

If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.

I don't think you want to suggest that Dr Faucy is lying?

[chessman]

45 minutes ago, yuyiinthesky said:

I don't think you want to suggest that Dr Faucy is lying?

No, sounds fair enough. He’s talking about a hypothetical (that there’s a large number of people with very mild symptoms - but we don’t know how many) and he’s using ‘may’ to show that he’s not sure. Only the most extreme prophet of doom would think that the mortality rate is closer to SARS or MERS, it clearly isn’t. It’s going to be closer to the seasonal flu rate but if it is 0.7% ( for example) and more contagious (than the seasonal flu) that will still kill a lot of people.
 

in a case where you’re not sure it makes sense to be cautious and try to save as many lives as possible. Also, as we get more data then that knowledge of the fatality rate gets better. If better evidence comes in that this rate is actually around 0.1% then I am sure there will be a big change in government policies.

 

Edited April 16, 2020 by chessman

[AussieBob18]

12 hours ago, DaRoadrunner said:

It looks like it can reinfect even those who have been exposed and ought to have immunity. We also have no vaccine. Open the country too soon and we have no way to stop a 2nd or 3rd wave of virus from circulating, overwhelming hospitals, and shutting things down all over again. Result, we would end up shut down even longer. Total economic collapse and anarchy could result. We must wait. But does our Govt have the sense to see this?

Puting aside the stupidity and ignorance associated with the lock downs, I agree we should wait - but not too long. 

If things are OK - like in Aust - reopen gradually starting 1 May and keep over 60/70s isolated - monitor closely.

If not OK, like in New York, wait until things improve enough and then do the same.

Maintain travel bans - all destinations - last lockdown method to be released - but never China - banned for years.

Anyone goes to China - isolate and quarantine 14 days open re-entry - no incoming - 5 years.

Maintain all the lockdowns for too long will result in no economic and social improvement possible - another great depression. Each country and each area are showing different rates of infections and mortality - isolate countries and areas - not the people within.

[AussieBob18]

2 hours ago, smutcakes said:

I have seen a number of reports that suggest the bold bit is a simply a lie?

Show me.

[smutcakes]

40 minutes ago, AussieBob18 said:

Show me.

There are loads of articles comparing the death rates of seasonal flu and Crovid. Nearly all that i have read say that Crovid has a higher death rate. In New York alone there are over 10,000 deaths associated with it in just 2 months or so even with a mass lock down of people for a large period of that. Just imagine what would of happened without the lock down?

You are claiming that is no different to seasonal flu?

[smutcakes]

1 hour ago, yuyiinthesky said:

The bold bit, which was 

"That is because the evidence shows the mortality rate under 50 is same as seasonal flu."

reminds me of this Article "Covid-19 — Navigating the Uncharted" in the New England Journal of Medicine, by Dr Anthony S. Fauci, the top USA expert:
 

I don't think you want to suggest that Dr Faucy is lying?

So with a normal seasonal flu you get 10,000 people + dying alone in New York City alone in 2 months with a lock down of people?

[DrTuner]

11 hours ago, ukrules said:

I read somewhere that China wasn't 'releasing' patients until they 'passed' an antibody test but I'm not sure how accurate that was.

The question is also how accurate those antibody tests would be. And also, how long do those antibodies last. And given that there are many strains already, do those antibodies even provide any immunity. Questions, questions, very few answers.

[Alex9191]

Its almost impossible to make predictions at this stage. But i refused to believe, borders restrictions will remain active after european summer (ending late september). Thailand knows low season will be fatal, but they will work their asses off to at least save the last trimester of the year no matter how.

Edited April 16, 2020 by Alex9191

[sandyf]

5 hours ago, mauGR1 said:

Something similar happening in Italy.

I just wonder if there are not enough young, healthy unemployed local people who are willing to do the job.

I think the problem is with "willing".

[sandyf]

4 hours ago, mstevens said:

 

And there is no guarantee that any of these 3 things will happen. The vaccine especially strikes me as pie in the sky stuff. A professor from supposedly the world's best university some weeks ago said that that week self-test kits would be available in the UK with an initial production run of 3 million. Nothing ever came. A vaccine in 12 - 18 months? Given there has been no vaccine for other coronaviruses, I am not sure why so many are convinced one is coming.

I think you are referring to the antibody test, from what I gather the 3.5 million tests the government had, or was going to have, proved to be unreliable.

You are quite right, the MERS vaccine has been researched for 8 years and still going on.

Those in a rush for a drug related solution should remember thalidomide.

[sandyf]

10 minutes ago, Alex9191 said:

But i refused to believe, borders restrictions will remain active after european summer (ending late september). Thailand knows low season will be fatal,

It doesn't matter what you or any one country thinks.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/coronavirus-travel-restrictions-border-shutdowns-country-200318091505922.html

[AussieBob18]

4 hours ago, smutcakes said:

There are loads of articles comparing the death rates of seasonal flu and Crovid. Nearly all that i have read say that Crovid has a higher death rate. In New York alone there are over 10,000 deaths associated with it in just 2 months or so even with a mass lock down of people for a large period of that. Just imagine what would of happened without the lock down?

You are claiming that is no different to seasonal flu?

Show me.

[ThailandRyan]

4 minutes ago, AussieBob18 said:

Show me.

One of a few I saw and have posted here already

http://www.ksdk.com/video/news/verify/verify-have-flu-deaths-outnumbered-coronavirus-deaths-this-year/63-7942d1bf-79cc-44fc-a1bb-8e4bcc08e286?jwsource=cl

[smutcakes]

8 minutes ago, AussieBob18 said:

Show me.

https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

 

 

[saakura]

On 4/14/2020 at 11:20 AM, donnacha said:

They are keeping their heads down because they know that the official figures are complete nonsense. They intend to open up at the same time as the countries that supply most of their tourists. In the meantime, they are hoping the massive hidden outbreak will burn itself out before anyone notices the unusually high number of people dying from "pneumonia" 

 

 

So you saying that there are thousands dying of coronavirus each day all over Thailand since several weeks, and all these deaths are being passed off as pneumonia deaths with the connivance of doctors, nurses, health officials, government ministers, relatives, media etc. Brilliant.

[ThailandRyan]

3 minutes ago, saakura said:

So you saying that there are thousands dying of coronavirus each day all over Thailand since several weeks, and all these deaths are being passed off as pneumonia deaths with the connivance of doctors, nurses, health officials, government ministers, relatives, media etc. Brilliant.

Have you ever lived here in a province away from big hospitals and out in the middle of nowhere.  Families do not go to hospitals, if anything they take care of the sick at home, and when death hits they call the police to come by for a report and a certificate.  No autopsy, just your 3 to 5 to 7 day funeral with monks ending in the cremation nothing more....

[saakura]

11 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Have you ever lived here in a province away from big hospitals and out in the middle of nowhere.  Families do not go to hospitals, if anything they take care of the sick at home, and when death hits they call the police to come by for a report and a certificate.  No autopsy, just your 3 to 5 to 7 day funeral with monks ending in the cremation nothing more....

Ok, so all these corona deaths are occuring in remote villages 'out in the middle of nowhere'. I thought the virus was spreading in crowded cities like Bangkok, Pattaya, Phuket etc. Death toll must be higher than US & Italy combined perhaps? Cunning cheating lieing Thais passing them all of as pneumonia or cancer deaths!!

Edited April 16, 2020 by saakura

[DaRoadrunner]

11 hours ago, mauGR1 said:

Obviously you don't need to work to get some food on the table, otherwise you would think differently.

I don't want to scare you, but while waiting for the miraculous vaccine, you might find out that your ivory tower is surrounded by millions of people desperate for food.

Well we could try it your way. You would not need food if you were dead.

[Alex9191]

sooner or later natural selection will rule, like always. Keep the old people at home while the young population start spinning the wheel again.

[mauGR1]

3 minutes ago, DaRoadrunner said:

Well we could try it your way. You would not need food if you were dead.

Yep, and i wouldn't even complain ????

[ThailandRyan]

14 minutes ago, saakura said:

Ok, so all these corona deaths are occuring in remote villages 'out in the middle of nowhere'. I thought the virus was spreading in crowded cities like Bangkok, Pattaya, Phuket etc. Death toll must be higher than US & Italy combined perhaps? Cunning cheating lieing Thais passing them all of as pneumonia or cancer deaths!!

You have to remember that many Thais from around the country also traveled to Bangkok during the Chinese New Year to celebrate.  My Ex-wife had 3 relatives pass away at the beginning of March with upper respiratory issues, never went to the hospital in the province after  they were first seen and had fevers.  They just stayed home surrounded by family until they passed, then a police report and certificate of death, and then the rest of the story, never tested.