Will the Mighty Baht Topple

[ivor bigun]

15 minutes ago, hashmodha said:

In my opinion THB will weaken when £,$ and Euro get stronger!.......I have exchanged@ 76!.... many years ago!.... until they run out of dollar reserves and sell gold, unlikely to topple!Oh how I get smiling again when it moves over 41????????!!

i could live with 50 ,dream dream dream 

[phkauf]

It should come down, not topple but down. Thailand's rating of BBB+ is on negative outlook by S&P, should it get knocked down that should weaken the baht. I don't see it falling below Investment Grade, but BBB- would hurt a lot. There is also the Sovereign Ceiling rule at S&P which means that individual companies usually cannot be rated above the country's rating, so Thai companies could potentially suffer. There are some exceptions to the rule, but not many and not a significant difference. This increases the cost of funding for the government and corporations.

Don't expect tourism to pick up for the remainder of the year, there are just too many structural and financial obstacles to overcome. Exports will be weak since demand for anything worldwide is way down due to the global shutdown. Oil is at near record lows. I just don't see anything driving demand for Baht in the near term.

[andy72]

1 hour ago, robblok said:

Some people have absolutely no economic sense at all. Thankfully you know what your talking about. The baht would fall if Thailand was hard hit and other countries not. But everyone is hard hit so your analysis is correct.

 

So many foreigners have no clue and keep imagining the baht going down but it has not done so and wont. I would like it too as i get income in Euros but I am not holding my breath. 

i don't think its all economics if there is speculation in there to thats a money game 
soros already proved currencies can be manipulated.

everyone agrees THB  is over valued 

 

Saying there is a limit to how much THB  a bank can hold is irrelevant, since china is holding the largest foreign reserves and that is just the ones it declares

there is a vested interest here with the kunming express 

for sure thailand has to take a hit its going to lose 20% gdp on tourism 
yes uk usa eu are all bailing out handouts but they will increase taxes 
who pays tax in LoS!

if tourism is hit for say 6 months THB  must go down 
plus the government will have to dip into those reserves and start some  bailout programs
if the country starves there will be riots 

 

42 minutes ago, hashmodha said:

I get smiling again when it moves over 41????????!!

YEAH, MY HEART SINKS WHEN IM GETTING ALMOST THE SAME AS THE $$

 

26 minutes ago, ivor bigun said:

i could live with 50 ,dream dream dream 

i could live with 50 too but that's all about sterling getting back up to $1.50plus and nothing to do with the THB

[Nanaplaza666]

On 4/16/2020 at 4:30 PM, 473geo said:

Not a chance, why do you think the government is taking a more cautious approach on payments for the out of work people.

That's not because they think the baht will stay strong, that's because they think the baht will drop and they will need every baht for themselfs . If they keep the good (fake)news of no infections up and try to get everybody back to work , they will not have to pay them and there is a BIG pot of money in wich they can grab and dig . 

[robblok]

37 minutes ago, andy72 said:

i don't think its all economics if there is speculation in there to thats a money game 
soros already proved currencies can be manipulated.

everyone agrees THB  is over valued 

 

Saying there is a limit to how much THB  a bank can hold is irrelevant, since china is holding the largest foreign reserves and that is just the ones it declares

there is a vested interest here with the kunming express 

for sure thailand has to take a hit its going to lose 20% gdp on tourism 
yes uk usa eu are all bailing out handouts but they will increase taxes 
who pays tax in LoS!

if tourism is hit for say 6 months THB  must go down 
plus the government will have to dip into those reserves and start some  bailout programs
if the country starves there will be riots 

 

YEAH, MY HEART SINKS WHEN IM GETTING ALMOST THE SAME AS THE $$

 

i could live with 50 too but that's all about sterling getting back up to $1.50plus and nothing to do with the THB

No not everyone agrees the THB is over valued, if that was the case then it would drop. Its only the bar stool annalists that think so. The ones that never held a job in economic fields and just believe in wishful thinking. 

 

You are looking at only one part of the equation.. you forget that western countries are hit hard too. So it evens out.  I wish you were right as it would be great but guys like you have been predicting this for years and it did not come true. 

[andy72]

2 minutes ago, robblok said:

You are looking at only one part of the equation.. you forget that western countries are hit hard too. So it evens out.  I wish you were right as it would be great but guys like you have been predicting this for years and it did not come true. 

Oh, Im not predicting anything

i would say at the current moment it is anywhere between 10-15% over valued
you disagree that's cool 
but since Thailand became part of this kunming express deal the BHT went high stays high
it has to lose 10% alone on COVIDS hit on tourism alone and as far as their other sectors go if BHT is in tune with all other currencies that are going to take a global covid hit 
so as i say im not predicting i say its over valued
and only the next 4 months will see what covid effect has on international values

i guess what i am saying is that the 10-15% over valuation will be addressed at some point if people start a BHT dump

as someone in the economic field i guess you see THB as the true Tiger in this bunch and think its performing as it should 

like everything only time will tell but i think in two or three dried ink railine contacts down the line a realignment will come and those rail lines will cost LoS more than they shrewdly bargained for

[robblok]

2 minutes ago, andy72 said:

Oh, Im not predicting anything

i would say at the current moment it is anywhere between 10-15% over valued
you disagree that's cool 
but since Thailand became part of this kunming express deal the BHT went high stays high
it has to lose 10% alone on COVIDS hit on tourism alone and as far as their other sectors go if BHT is in tune with all other currencies that are going to take a global covid hit 
so as i say im not predicting i say its over valued
and only the next 4 months will see what covid effect has on international values

i guess what i am saying is that the 10-15% over valuation will be addressed at some point if people start a BHT dump

as someone in the economic field i guess you see THB as the true Tiger in this bunch and think its performing as it should 

like everything only time will tell but i think in two or three dried ink railine contacts down the line a realignment will come and those rail lines will cost LoS more than they shrewdly bargained for

Im saying the market will value it, if its over valued it will drop if not it wont. But people have been saying that the baht will drop for ages. It has done so recently just a bit but I dont think it will drop much more.

 

I would seriously like it as i got an income in euros. I have worked at a stock trader office in the Netherlands been an accountant for years so I do know what I am talking about. However i make no real predictions if i knew for sure id be rich. 

 

I think it will stay where it is maybe go down just a bit maybe not. Its just that bar stool guys have been predicting drops far greater then what you are predicting and it never came true if you go back in the history of this forum over the last few years people have been predicting it for years. So I am cautious. Now its really hard to say as the western countries are hit too. If it was just Thailand then it was different.

[Paul DS]

I'm not sure everyone understands why Thailand may be in trouble...when it comes to tourism Thailand has many issues:

 

They want a Covid Free certificate (Almost impossible to get)

They want Tourists to have Covid cover Insurance (almost impossible to get)

They want 14 day isolation (Yes I'm sure tourists will agree to that)

The returning country may also want 14 day isolation

Rubbish Exchange Rates

Poor attitude Thais, (Not all, but enough)

Bad attitude Junta towards Farangs!

Awkward Immigration

Too many terrible Chinese etc ruining the beaches and Islands.

 

I personally will still come to Thailand, but it could be so much better!

 

 

[Kurtf]

When the Chinese come back with all their investments and want the loans to be paid back. Then they will take over because the Thai gov't. won't be able to cover the loans in spite of the kings great wealth. That's when you can bid goodby to the Thai baht.

Edited April 17, 2020 by Kurtf

[Mavideol]

On 4/16/2020 at 4:25 PM, uli65 said:

I hope for the free fall, and it will come sooner than later

somebody said something like that early January, we now middle April and still the same up and down currency exchange

[OneeyedJohn]

On 4/16/2020 at 6:31 PM, Thongkorn said:

I have seen this thread on and off over the last 14 Years, all the baht has done against the English pound is double, I can only speak about the English pound as i am  English, Thailand has warehouses full of cash, 

That is garbage, since I was aware of Thailand ( way more than 14 years ago ) the standard has always been the dollar 20 baht, and the pound 40 baht. Some fluctuations in between like in 1997, and then when Thaksin came to power things started to change.

[Isaan sailor]

Once this Wuhan virus subsides, USA, Eurozone and Japan will look to diversify their supply chains—away from China.  You’d think Thailand has made itself aware of this—and made every effort to lower the Baht to compete.  After this past week’s Baht appreciation—I think they’re all out with the virus...

[473geo]

I would have thought keeping any borrowing to a minimum (rumored to be a trillion in the pipeline for stimulus spending) is a sign they want to keep the baht where it is, also no current moves on lowering the interest rates.

Could also be a big negative financial impact on infrastructure spending commitments using overseas contractors if the baht tumbles

[stouricks]

On 4/16/2020 at 5:29 PM, Kwasaki said:

I got my money over from UK in 2005 Sept @ 75 to £, so if my frozen pensions come into Thailand at that rate now,  Thailand would benefit from me. ????

The increase in UK Pension is around a fiver a week = 250 a year. So your 15 years here on fixed pension = 3750 quid. Do you really think Thailand is short of that amount?

Edited April 17, 2020 by stouricks

[Kwasaki]

2 minutes ago, stouricks said:

The increase in UK Pension is around a fiver a week = 250 a year. So your 15 years here on fixed pension = 3750 quid. Do you really think Thailand is short of that amount?

Toooooo serious, I've only had a Uk pension for 7 years.

I would buy more inn Thailand if I had more money to spend.

[Mac98]

Falling exports, slow tourism recovery, continued high unemployment. You buy the baht? 

[WalkingOrders]

Usd/thb to about 36. No crash. And it will be a few months to get there.

 

Thats my prediction from just memorizing all the other predictions.

[marquis22]

On 4/16/2020 at 4:46 PM, Lacessit said:

Seems to be teetering a bit, AUD has moved up from high 18's to mid-20. Got to 20.9 yesterday.

If the tourist industry is 18% of GDP, that leaves a big hole with everything shut down. I don't know if that includes medical and dental tourism, which is also non-existent.

About 70% of GDP is exports, so a lower baht would be a benefit. That's if the Junta can wean itself off military toys. They want the baht as strong as possible.

The AUD increasing against the THB is not a reflection of the THB falling it is because the AUD rose from .60 USD to .63

THB seems to keep pace with USD as the USD:AUD changes.

[bwpage3]

Read this

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-26/thai-baht-is-brought-back-to-earth-after-a-winning-year-in-asia

[stament]

16 minutes ago, bwpage3 said:

Read this

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-26/thai-baht-is-brought-back-to-earth-after-a-winning-year-in-asia

Almost 3 months old. A lot has changed since Jan.

[Susco]

18 minutes ago, bwpage3 said:

Read this

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-26/thai-baht-is-brought-back-to-earth-after-a-winning-year-in-asia

Did you notice the Baht has strengthened against all currencies today?

 

Maybe BOT is reading this thread

[WalkingOrders]

49 minutes ago, marquis22 said:

The AUD increasing against the THB is not a reflection of the THB falling it is because the AUD rose from .60 USD to .63

THB seems to keep pace with USD as the USD:AUD changes.

See

https://www.barchart.com/forex/quotes/^USDTHB/technical-chart

[observer90210]

Many things globally will crash..if not worse.

Currencies are part of the equation.

If one gets a pension in foreign exchange sent to Thailand, the crash may be good and yield more grub.

If one has bought property much before the crash, once it crashes, the property will highly loose value, on selling and sending back funds abroad.

Regulators could be tempted to create inflation, in order to balance and avoid foreign investments not to loose much...but the commoner will suffer....

And prices will hike for all imports due to the THB cra$h...so what one may gain in the THB cra$h, will be lost as greed will once again rule, all prices will hike...

 

What's the point here ? well, what one gains on one side, is unevitably lost on the other....so in this context, I may not dance and rejoice to much in global currency cra$hes....

Edited April 17, 2020 by observer90210

[keithathome]

THB will stay strong until THEY have got enough of their money out of the country THEN will come the crash so  THEY can bring it all back, buy buy buy everything with a weak baht and continue the cycle. 

Cynical farang

[WalkingOrders]

12 hours ago, observer90210 said:

Many things globally will crash..if not worse.

Currencies are part of the equation.

If one gets a pension in foreign exchange sent to Thailand, the crash may be good and yield more grub.

If one has bought property much before the crash, once it crashes, the property will highly loose value, on selling and sending back funds abroad.

Regulators could be tempted to create inflation, in order to balance and avoid foreign investments not to loose much...but the commoner will suffer....

And prices will hike for all imports due to the THB cra$h...so what one may gain in the THB cra$h, will be lost as greed will once again rule, all prices will hike...

 

What's the point here ? well, what one gains on one side, is unevitably lost on the other....so in this context, I may not dance and rejoice to much in global currency cra$hes....

You do not have the prognostication abilities to predict such an uncertainty as a baht crash, or something even worse globally.

 

There is hope that all is not lost, and that the global economies will fire back up soon.

 

A change in the currency between currency between to nations is not a gain or loss between one or the other unless you are involved in trade with those two currencies.

 

A fall in the baht of 2 or 3 against the USD or others would not be a bad thing for Thailand.  An aid to export, and likely, as they are going to commence borrowing soon.

 

As for regulators ( I presume you mean central banks) attempting to try something called creating inflation....in a world that just will be crawling out of a near shutdown, and has added trillions in debt, it would be strange indeed if we saw global central banks start raising rates. That would be quite a twist.

 

Everything will be okay if money finds a way to help those hurt the most.

[WalkingOrders]

12 hours ago, keithathome said:

THB will stay strong until THEY have got enough of their money out of the country THEN will come the crash so  THEY can bring it all back, buy buy buy everything with a weak baht and continue the cycle. 

Cynical farang

Sillyness. Not the way the world works. Specifically not the way foreign exchange markets work.

[WalkingOrders]

17 hours ago, andy72 said:

if tourism is hit for say 6 months THB  must go down 
plus the government will have to dip into those reserves and start some  bailout programs

Pretty much sums things up. 

[Henryford]

If anything it will strengthen. Thailand is not as stupid as the West in spending trillions to keep people under house arrest.

[19DL86]

On April 17, 2563 BE at 10:41 AM, stament said:

As usual it's Friday so the dollar has weakened 

Yeah I used to notice this pattern for many years with GBP, never thought to comment on it.

Anyone who might please?

[uli65]

Thailand is keeping people under house arrest and can not even support the poorest people with 5000 baht. you think this is better??