Are lockdowns worth their costs?

[kingdong]

11 hours ago, Bundooman said:

The problem is, that people don't learn from the mistakes of others before them.

340 years ago, The diarist, Samuel Pepys wrote about the Great Plague of London: -

Samuel Pepys diary, 1660-69

 

 

"At the end of August, he cited the bill of mortality as having recorded 6,102 victims of the plague, but feared “that the true number of the dead this week is near 10,000,” mostly because the victims among the urban poor weren’t counted. A week later, he noted the official number of 6,978 in one week, “a most dreadfull Number.”

 

By mid-September, all attempts to control the plague were failing. Quarantines were not being enforced, and people gathered in places like the Royal Exchange. Social distancing, in short, was not happening.

 

He was equally alarmed by people attending funerals in spite of official orders. Although plague victims were supposed to be interred at night, this system broke down as well, and Pepys griped that burials were taking place “in broad daylight.”

 

Even now, some people either don't want to hear or listen - or they think they know better.

Lessons of history are often ignored!

trouble is the authorities either know a lot more than they,'re letting on and are suppressing it to avoid rioting,or haven,t got a clue,neither option is very reassuring.

[runamok27]

The CDC in the United States released an interesting finding. The deaths from all causes, so far this year, in America are down 37,000 compared to last year. Pretty funny that Covid-19 appears to be less of a danger to Americans than we are to ourselves.

[runamok27]

On 4/26/2020 at 11:15 AM, cdemundo said:

California has had 1684 corona virus deaths, NY State has had 16,509 according to the New York Times.  California started social distancing early.  Hard to know what is best (for reasonable people it's hard anyway, some always know everything), but is seems like social distancing worked.

You can't really compare California and New York. In New York City they are packed in there like sardines. The two big cities in California, SF and LA, are not packed anywhere close to that. California has a lot of people but they are pretty spread out, so even without social distancing being mandated people were already pretty spread out.

[rakman]

In Thailand, I'd say not.  52 deaths (who were they mostly), 575 deaths on the highway for April alone.  Pain to the whole country, fear and uncertainty generated to farang.

It would seem Thais are more healthy than aged and health compromised farang.  It would have been better to quarantine the vulnerable, not the whole country.

While the communicable level of the virus is high, mortality rates of infected people have been shown to be very low, even in high density living conditions.

Quarantine and protect the vulnerable, not the general population.

[runamok27]

The lock downs were necessary in order to learn more about the virus. The initial assumption was to treat it like it was extremely deadly so play it safe, which was smart. As more data comes in, we are learning that it is not as deadly as we first thought. The problem is that herd immunity may not be possible, nobody really knows right now, and a vaccine is really a pipe dream at this point and even if an effective one is developed someday, that could be years away. People keep bringing up 12 to 18 months but that is the most optimistic estimate, with 100% going according to plan which has never happened before. Most experts say that effective vaccines take 5 to 10 years and a lot of experts say that a vaccine for a corona virus is next to impossible to make. So here we are, stuck with a virus that kills about the same percentage as the flu with no way to build immunity to it. So it's going to eventually kill a lot of people, lock down or no lock down. There must be a balancing act between locking down and opening up, so as not to overwhelm the medical services and that is about all we can do. Are the lock downs worth it? I think down the road a few years from now we'll learn they were not worth it but at this point in time what else can we do? Even if the lock downs are ended most people will still lock themselves down and most people won't do anything so our economies are all going to go into the toilet anyways. They always talk about how the younger generations are screwed from the great recession but I didn't believe that. I thought they would be just fine but adding this onto it, I think they are screwed now. 

[Alidiver]

Selected "facts" .
I didn't know you and Merkel are experts.
The flattening curve is to stop hospitals being overrun and delay the spread until a solution becomes available.

[Brunolem]

6 hours ago, Alidiver said:

The flattening curve is to stop hospitals being overrun and delay the spread until a solution becomes available.

And you know that many hospitals are so empty of patients that they have laid off their staff...

 

Looks like there was no reason to panic after all...

[thaibeachlovers]

On 4/26/2020 at 1:50 PM, Brunolem said:

Will the world follow the 1930s scenario, first an economic depression, then a war?

Probably, and the war was likely going to happen anyway with a certain country.

 

The price of the lockdown is already too high, but I doubt politicians and the rich will suffer unduly, so they may not care.

[thaibeachlovers]

7 hours ago, Alidiver said:

delay the spread until a solution becomes available.

Soooooo, you support lockdown till a "solution" is found then, even if it takes 12 to 18 months?

[Brunolem]

4 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Soooooo, you support lockdown till a "solution" is found then, even if it takes 12 to 18 months?

Or more likely 5 to 10 years...

[UbonThani]

2% of countries problem

98% no big deal

 

much ado bout zilch

[scubascuba3]

13 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

Or more likely 5 to 10 years...

Not more likely. 60+ labs currently working on a vaccine

[UbonThani]

4 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Probably, and the war was likely going to happen anyway with a certain country.

 

The price of the lockdown is already too high, but I doubt politicians and the rich will suffer unduly, so they may not care.

true more power over the masses

[johng]

5 hours ago, Brunolem said:

And you know that many hospitals are so empty of patients that they have laid off their staff...

 

Looks like there was no reason to panic after all...

There was a report on SKY News UK  the other day  that  accident and emergency  had seen a 50% decrees in patients since the "WuFlu lockdown"  they where urging anyone   who thought they  might have had/be having a heart attack or stroke to  get to A and E  for treatment.

[OneMoreFarang]

On 4/26/2020 at 8:50 AM, Brunolem said:

As Angela Merkel and many others already said weeks ago, sooner or later around 70% of the population will be infected.

Let Merkel explain this to you. She is pretty good at explaining it.

 

[Brunolem]

2 hours ago, scubascuba3 said:

Not more likely. 60+ labs currently working on a vaccine

Let them work... if only major discoveries were made just because we need them. 

 

We have been waiting for a HIV vaccine for 40 years, and at that time the panic was exactly the same as it is now... everybody was working on it, tons of money were thrown at it, and yet... 

 

 

[scubascuba3]

12 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

Let them work... if only major discoveries were made just because we need them. 

 

We have been waiting for a HIV vaccine for 40 years, and at that time the panic was exactly the same as it is now... everybody was working on it, tons of money were thrown at it, and yet... 

 

 

Yes but HIV isn't a corona virus. No need to scaremonger, they say 18 months but no guarantee. I haven't heard any of them say 5+ years

Edited April 29, 2020 by scubascuba3

[thaibeachlovers]

14 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

Let them work... if only major discoveries were made just because we need them. 

 

We have been waiting for a HIV vaccine for 40 years, and at that time the panic was exactly the same as it is now... everybody was working on it, tons of money were thrown at it, and yet... 

 

 

I recall no panic about HIV. Entirely avoidable for most by using a condom for sex and not using injectable illegal drugs.

Somewhat different to Corona.

[Brunolem]

3 minutes ago, scubascuba3 said:

Yes but HIV isn't a corona virus. No need to scaremonger, they say 18 months but no guarantee. I haven't heard any of them say 5+ years

Of course they are not gonna say 5 years, because that would remove the hope. 

 

Like I explained before, this vaccine is the carrot hanging at the end of a stick that they are dangling in front of us, and we are the donkey. 

 

Time goes by and yet the carrot always remain as far away... 

[Brunolem]

3 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

I recall no panic about HIV. Entirely avoidable for most by using a condom for sex and not using injectable illegal drugs.

Somewhat different to Corona.

There was a different kind of panic, but it was constantly all over the news, especially because celebrities were dying of it. 

 

The constant reminder we now have for wearing masks was about wearing condoms. 

 

There were special TV shows to raise money to... guess what... find a vaccine! 

 

People were wearing a small yellow knot pin to show solidarity, and so on. 

 

Same madness, different virus... 

[scubascuba3]

2 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

There was a different kind of panic, but it was constantly all over the news, especially because celebrities were dying of it. 

 

The constant reminder we now have for wearing masks was about wearing condoms. 

 

There were special TV shows to raise money to... guess what... find a vaccine! 

 

People were wearing a small yellow knot pin to show solidarity, and so on. 

 

Same madness, different virus... 

I can't remember any rush to find a vaccine for HIV 30+ years ago, all the advertising in the UK was about wearing a condom, no vaccine condom mentioned. It was basically a death sentence, that was the message

[p414]

15 minutes ago, scubascuba3 said:

Yes but HIV isn't a corona virus. No need to scaremonger, they say 18 months but no guarantee. I haven't heard any of them say 5+ years

trouble is, it is so easy to spread the corona virus.Even from people showing no signs .This is the deadliest disease because of that.

[scubascuba3]

1 minute ago, p414 said:

trouble is, it is so easy to spread the corona virus.Even from people showing no signs .This is the deadliest disease because of that.

80% of cases caught in the home so get out more

[p414]

14 hours ago, runamok27 said:

The lock downs were necessary in order to learn more about the virus. The initial assumption was to treat it like it was extremely deadly so play it safe, which was smart. As more data comes in, we are learning that it is not as deadly as we first thought. The problem is that herd immunity may not be possible, nobody really knows right now, and a vaccine is really a pipe dream at this point and even if an effective one is developed someday, that could be years away. People keep bringing up 12 to 18 months but that is the most optimistic estimate, with 100% going according to plan which has never happened before. Most experts say that effective vaccines take 5 to 10 years and a lot of experts say that a vaccine for a corona virus is next to impossible to make. So here we are, stuck with a virus that kills about the same percentage as the flu with no way to build immunity to it. So it's going to eventually kill a lot of people, lock down or no lock down. There must be a balancing act between locking down and opening up, so as not to overwhelm the medical services and that is about all we can do. Are the lock downs worth it? I think down the road a few years from now we'll learn they were not worth it but at this point in time what else can we do? Even if the lock downs are ended most people will still lock themselves down and most people won't do anything so our economies are all going to go into the toilet anyways. They always talk about how the younger generations are screwed from the great recession but I didn't believe that. I thought they would be just fine but adding this onto it, I think they are screwed now. 

After Thalidomide it waqs realized that 'side effects' from new drugs/vaccines may take months, even  years to show.

 

[BobBKK]

31 minutes ago, mauGR1 said:

It seems this video has been taken down from a few sites, wonder why.

It's just common sense.

I posted this video already but always worth repeating. The death rate will be sub 1% globally although 70% might get it and recover. It's paranoia.

[mauGR1]

2 minutes ago, BobBKK said:

I posted this video already but always worth repeating. The death rate will be sub 1% globally although 70% might get it and recover. It's paranoia.

Completely agree, i still have some hope for the common sense to prevail, that's why i also re-posted it.

Unfortunately this kind of news is nowhere to be found on mainstream media, thanks to that, lots of people are really afraid.

[Brunolem]

47 minutes ago, mauGR1 said:

It seems this video has been taken down from a few sites, wonder why.

It's just common sense.

I has been removed from Youtube, because not PC, and not in line with the mainstream propaganda. 

 

If not already done, read 1984, because it is coming at us like a freight train... 

[chessman]

1 hour ago, Xaos said:

Why u all thaivisa experts listen to some front line microbiologists? 

Is there such a thing as a front line microbiologist? They are emergency surgeons.

you can read this which goes through their claims point by point.

https://theprepared.com/blog/dr-ericksons-viral-covid-19-briefing-video-is-dangerously-wrong/

then make up your own mind.

 

To me, the most important point they make is that other kinds of medical care is not happening as it should and this really needs to be addressed. Some of their other claims seem very dubious.

 

[mauGR1]

3 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

I has been removed from Youtube, because not PC, and not in line with the mainstream propaganda. 

 

If not already done, read 1984, because it is coming at us like a freight train... 

Yes, i was just playing innocent for a minute, free speech is in danger, and you're knocking on an open door, i would suggest, if i can, also "Brave New World" by Aldous Huxley.

[Brunolem]

11 minutes ago, chessman said:

Some of their other claims seem very dubious.

 

Such as saying that witches don't exist?