Are lockdowns worth their costs?

[UbonThani]

5 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

Less income, more eating...and meat on top of that... how is that possible? 

shelves almost bare today

cheaper to eat at home and no nightlife

[Brunolem]

7 minutes ago, mauGR1 said:

The irony is that we ordinary folks get insulted by so called "leftists", for making exactly the same point.

 

That would come mostly from American so-called leftists, who support lockdowns because they destroy Trump's "best economy ever". 

 

Leftists in other countries, such as France for example, are far less in favor of lockdowns, and I think that things are going to get pretty hot for Macron and his merrymen, as soon as they will reopen the gates... 

[scubascuba3]

2 hours ago, tonray said:

I'm alive and healthy and am saving at least 10,000 baht per month on spending...so YES !

Just continue to stay in after lockdown if you like it so much

[TheDark]

11 minutes ago, UbonThani said:

Makes little difference. All short term. Lots of farm burn offs still which are far worse than planes.

Is it really? 

 

Most of the biodegradable material rottens after a while and the process will release CO2 to the atmosphere after some time. It would be great, if farmers would use the extra material to burn it correctly and generate electricity while doing so. 

 

Oil, natural gas, coal are semi permanently stored hydrocarbons, which, when burned, release extra CO2 to increase global warming effects. That's not good in the long term.

 

Yes, PM10 and PM2.5 and other small particles are annoyance and can cause lung diseases. Correct filtering when burning these, could make a big difference for our wellbing. 

[mauGR1]

4 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

That would come mostly from American so-called leftists, who support lockdowns because they destroy Trump's "best economy ever". 

 

Leftists in other countries, such as France for example, are far less in favor of lockdowns, and I think that things are going to get pretty hot for Macron and his merrymen, as soon as they will reopen the gates... 

I hope so, but my leftist teacher friend at hometown, has been called trumpist yesterday, just for talking the same common sense we're talking here.

[UbonThani]

2 minutes ago, TheDark said:

burned, release extra CO2 to increase global warming effects. That's not good in the long term.

 

How so?

[Susco]

2 hours ago, tonray said:

I'm alive and healthy and am saving at least 10,000 baht per month on spending...so YES !

Have you ever considered asking to be voluntarily jailed, as it would save your whole budget

[Henryford]

It is useless looking at the reported CV deaths as every death is classified as CV. Look at the total deaths which i bet over 2020 will not be that much greater than a normal year. So every extra death is costing society tens of millions.

[jvs]

49 minutes ago, UbonThani said:

People who value life want to open up.

some other people who also value life, understand why the lock down is neccesary.

Time will tell who is or was right.

[teatime101]

One reason for the early lockdown strategy was to protect hospitals and health workers from potentially overwhelming numbers of sick and dying.

Edited April 26, 2020 by teatime101

[sqwakvfr]

I get suspicious whenever I read “Lead by East Asia or East Asia Centric”.  It just means China.  I believe China has been damaged.  Countries of the world will fall into two categories when the “dust settles” on the Covid 19 Pandemic. 

Of course this presumes the dust will settle on Covid 19?  

 

1.  Those who need China

2.  Those who do not need China

 

I do not believe Chinese, their money and their people will be welcomed back with open arms by all countries.  Of course LOS desperately needs the Chinese for their economic survival and you can’t fault anyone for dealing with a “Devil” in order to survive. The Devil comes in many forms.  Right now China and the CCP is engaged on a two front campaign:

 

1.  Deflect blame for the Pandemic(The US Army created it and brought to Wuhan in October 2019).  Why not the CIA?  I am waiting for the final episode of Homeland and maybe Carrie ends up in Wuhan with a vial of Corona Virus.

 

2.  International Medical Aid missions to assist in Covid 19.  So far China has sent medical supplies and teams to Serbia, Italy, Spain, Indonesia and the Philippines.  On the surface these missions appear to have benevolent and charitable reasons but I remember an old adage:  “Beware of Chinese bringing gifts”. 

 

I do not see a world where “East Asia (AKA China)” is on Top of the world.  

 

Of course I could be wrong and China could end up being on Top of the World.  

 

[Brunolem]

16 minutes ago, sqwakvfr said:

I get suspicious whenever I read “Lead by East Asia or East Asia Centric”.  It just means China.  I believe China has been damaged.  

 

I do not see a world where “East Asia (AKA China)” is on Top of the world.  

 

Of course I could be wrong and China could end up being on Top of the World.  

 

When I write East Asia, I don't mean China only, but all the countries from Japan to Singapore, which are faring far better than the West during this crisis.

 

It is mostly China's reputation which has been damaged...for good reason.

 

Probably some companies will decide to relocate outside China, and many will end up in Vietnam and other ASEAN countries, still benefiting East Asia at large.

 

Meanwhile, China has already brought together a host of countries, notably in Central Asia and Africa, in its giant Belt and Road Initiative project...these countries can hardly get out now.

 

On the other side, it took more than 7 years for the EU to recover from the 2008-2009 crisis, and now it is faced with a much bigger crisis...the EU, if it survives, is going to be on the sideline for at least a decade.

 

As for the US, the only thing it has left is a money printing machine that is spitting trillions of dollars like confetti, on an almost weekly basis.

 

How far can it go like that?

[Rimmer]

A baiting post and a reply have been removed

[UbonThani]

1 hour ago, Henryford said:

It is useless looking at the reported CV deaths as every death is classified as CV. Look at the total deaths which i bet over 2020 will not be that much greater than a normal year. So every extra death is costing society tens of millions.

yep

might even go down

[Lacessit]

44 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

When I write East Asia, I don't mean China only, but all the countries from Japan to Singapore, which are faring far better than the West during this crisis.

 

It is mostly China's reputation which has been damaged...for good reason.

 

Probably some companies will decide to relocate outside China, and many will end up in Vietnam and other ASEAN countries, still benefiting East Asia at large.

 

Meanwhile, China has already brought together a host of countries, notably in Central Asia and Africa, in its giant Belt and Road Initiative project...these countries can hardly get out now.

 

On the other side, it took more than 7 years for the EU to recover from the 2008-2009 crisis, and now it is faced with a much bigger crisis...the EU, if it survives, is going to be on the sideline for at least a decade.

 

As for the US, the only thing it has left is a money printing machine that is spitting trillions of dollars like confetti, on an almost weekly basis.

 

How far can it go like that?

As long as the American dollar is the world reserve currency, indefinitely. The s##t will hit the fan when enough count ries decide they want a different means of exchange. Right now, the vast majority of contracts world wide are written in the greenback.

China has stolen a march on America in terms of internal transport. Americans treat aircraft like taxis; however, the pandemic has exposed that philosophy. China has built thousands of kilometres of high speed rail criss-crossing the country, which makes perfect sense in terms of the environment, their population and cost effectiveness. America has just 90 kilometres of high speed rail, and there's a limit to how big one can build a truck to haul freight on American roads.

America will probably end lockdowns faster than anywhere else, because the concept of social support for the unemployed is anathema to the current occupant of the White House. There will be a much bigger price to pay in terms of deaths as a result.

One aspect which does not seem to be getting any attention is the level of disability incurred by COVID-19 survivors. Permit me to doubt everyone makes a complete recovery.

 

[Berkshire]

1 hour ago, Brunolem said:

As for the US, the only thing it has left is a money printing machine that is spitting trillions of dollars like confetti, on an almost weekly basis.

 

How far can it go like that?

You do have a point.  You would think that with the kind of national debt that we have (which will NEVER be repaid), the US would have something to show for it.  But we still have massive inequality, deteriorating infrastructure, crimes galore, skyhigh medical costs, congressional gridlock, environmental degradation, massive personal debt, declining middle class....Lordy, I can go on and on. 

 

But wait, we did help the top 1% get richer.  So that's something.

[Valorian]

Just hope the world won't follow the 1930s scenario.

[Mama Noodle]

3 hours ago, TheDark said:

Yes, slowing down the overheated economy is a good thing. With this slowdown, previous humanoids who run aimlessly the rat race are slowly turning back to human beings. I think that is a good thing.

 

The world was going badly wrong before this pandemic. Moronic populists were gaining power - now we have seen how glueless they are as leaders. Things will change after this is over. 

 

The trickle down economy made the rich even richer and poor even poorer in many parts of the world. I' not too sure, that can continue much longer anymore - or otherwise the ordinary people will make revolutions happen. This time it's not just students who protests, but great middle masses of middle class people who will join in. 

 

The nature looks better, the air looks better, the waters look better. What there is not to love about that.

 

I don't need the latest iPhone or huge 3D-television in my home. Those are not essential items. I prefer clean air and water much more than latest tech gimmick.

 

Global reality check is a good thing overall.

 

Cool, but I wonder how it is you are making money? Are you on a pension or retirement? If so, then your points and all the glitter are meaningless. 

[Mama Noodle]

39 minutes ago, Berkshire said:

But we still have massive inequality, deteriorating infrastructure, crimes galore, skyhigh medical costs, congressional gridlock, environmental degradation, massive personal debt, declining middle class....Lordy, I can go on and on. 

 

But wait, we did help the top 1% get richer.  So that's something.

 

And every time the right tries to do anything at all to address the debt, the left absolutely melts the F down and spends money like its nothing. 

We CAN lower taxes AND the debt, but wars and foreign aid, and illegal immigration, and every other fat-laden garbage policy has to stop. 

 

Yet the left refuses to do anything about it other than marginal platitudes. 

[chessman]

3 hours ago, Henryford said:

It is useless looking at the reported CV deaths as every death is classified as CV. Look at the total deaths which i bet over 2020 will not be that much greater than a normal year. So every extra death is costing society tens of millions.

Just wrong. Many deaths all over the world that happen in private houses and care homes will not be reported as Covid deaths due to a lack of testing. This is true now and is true every time there is a significant virus.

make your decisions either way about the benefits or problems with lockdowns but don’t do so under the illusion that we are over-reporting deaths. When comparative year-on-year death data is analysed it is almost certain that it will be found that the deaths are being underestimated.

 

and by the way, those people who quote the number of deaths from previous viruses such as swine flu - you are using the 2nd figure, the figure that is reached when Year-on-year death data is analysed. Those figures ALWAYS are adjusted up.

[chessman]

59 minutes ago, Mama Noodle said:

And every time the right tries to do anything at all to address the debt, the left absolutely melts the F down and spends money like its nothing. 

The right like to talk about that debt when they are not in power. But as soon they get in power they cut taxes and the debt goes up.

[Lacessit]

3 hours ago, chessman said:

The right like to talk about that debt when they are not in power. But as soon they get in power they cut taxes and the debt goes up.

Bingo!

[belfast3]

I believe a short-term, severe lockdown in order to provide the healthcare system time to prepare is a positive move, anything beyond 4-6 weeks where severe economic damage is caused is questionable.

Simply because there is inconclusive evidence to confirm that a lockdown prevents the spread of the virus. Some of the most heavily locked down countries also have the highest death and new case rates. 

If it comes to light that lockdowns have minimum impact on the spread, and millions of people across the world have been left without employment or homes, then that too, is a very big crisis.

There is obviously the very important issue of saving human life, but it's a bizarre contradiction to have government enforced lockdowns when the same governments allow 8 million people to die every year from smoking, why not ban other things that cause death by the same measure?

Edited April 26, 2020 by belfast3

[sucit]

This question will be so easy to answer in a couple of years. But it seems painfully obvious what the answer is right now.

 

When all the affects of these lockdowns are added up, worldwide, the death toll and economic impacts will dwarf any affects the coronavirus would have tolled alone. 

[sucit]

18 minutes ago, belfast3 said:

Simply because there is inconclusive evidence to confirm that a lockdown prevents the spread of the virus. Some of the most heavily locked down countries also have the highest death and new case rates. 

My God, thank you. 

 

It brings great joy to my heart to know there are at least a few of us out there able to use our brains, look at information and think for ourselves. 

 

That is exactly right. Despite what 99.9% of everyone is saying, even many scientists, lockdowns have not been scientifically proven to be effective. In fact, there are new studies that say the worst place to be is inside your home, and out of the sunlight. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.04.20053058v1

 

That does not mean locking down was a bad decision, it just means it was a guess and we do not know yet how effective it actually is. 

Edited April 26, 2020 by sucit

[kingdong]

9 hours ago, Surelynot said:

Sweden only record a coronavirus death for people who die and who are then tested and prove positive for corona virus. They don't test all so their numbers are low. So I am told.

And uks  numbers are only those who died in hospital,and people believe Thailand's figures..............

Edited April 26, 2020 by kingdong

[Oldie]

In respect of the lockdowns - I can't get rid of the feeling that some countries were very happy to have an opportunity to print a lot of money... At the same time the interest policy of the central banks does everything to motivate people to spend their money and not to save for bad times. Crazy and dangerous times... 

[belfast3]

14 minutes ago, sucit said:

My God, thank you. 

 

It brings great joy to my heart to know there are at least a few of us out there able to use our brains, look at information and think for ourselves. 

 

That is exactly right. Despite what 99.9% of everyone is saying, even many scientists, lockdowns have not been scientifically proven to be effective. In fact, there are new studies that say the worst place to be is inside your home, and out of the sunlight. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.04.20053058v1

 

That does not mean locking down was a bad decision, it just means it was a guess and we do not know yet how effective it actually is. 

Executed well, a strict lock-down combined with mass testing would enable the majority of cases to be discovered and isolated quickly before starting to lift restrictions. However, many of the lockdowns imposed seem to be out of government-panic without any testing or exit strategy so it's become a total <deleted>show.

Added to that, many people are panic and fear-stricken so the governments hands are essentially tied. If they lift lockdowns too early, there will be a huge backlash.

[chessman]

29 minutes ago, belfast3 said:

Some of the most heavily locked down countries also have the highest death and new case rates. 

Which countries? Have you compared the new case rates before and after the lockdown?

in Italy, new case rates were between 20% and 30% a day, every day in the week before they started the lockdown on 9th March. In the most recent week, up to today, the new case rates have been between 1% and 2% a day.

or maybe you had other countries in mind?

[chessman]

5 minutes ago, Oldie said:

At the same time the interest policy of the central banks does everything to motivate people to spend their money and not to save for bad times. Crazy and dangerous times... 

very true.

but how can countries tell their citizens to save if they are all massively in debt themselves.