1 hour ago, bkkcanuck8 said:

I suspect a lot of the testing for the virus is sold/done by the private hospitals checking to see if someone has Covid-19 -- so they can transfer them over to the public hospital (don't want contaminated people affecting the profitability). 

You "suspect" - do you have any source that such tests have been done by private hospitals, and if so, already in January or February, or may be March?

As far as I know such tests were not available in Thailand or Cambodia at that time in private Hospitals in January and February, and most still don't have them.

7 hours ago, DavisH said:

I don't think the virus has been spreading in Thiland and unnoticed, not given the very low infection and death rates here.

There were no test in December and January, even February, so how can you know that there was a very low infection rate at that time?

17 hours ago, rabas said:

There is also criticism of the Stanford antibody testing in California (you mentioned)

Of course, and it is good that such studies are reviewed by others (as long as they are knowledgeable in that field).

Nevertheless, with other Antibody studies in Germany and New York showing even much higher percentages it looks as if the Stanford study is not far off the truth.

Almost no testing so no cases unless they present at hospital. 

 

Old people die and not tested. 

 

Only way to tell if these reported numbers are anywhete near accurate is to get r egg liable figures of deaths and compare to previous years. 

 

That won't be done or certainly published anytime soon. 

10 hours ago, offset said:

Nothing said on this topic explains why there are few deaths in the many cases in hospitals

 

Doesn't it? Try these two paragraphs. 

 

19 hours ago, yuyiinthesky said:

Almost all of the infected ones in Thailand and even more so in Cambodia, with its young population, showed no symptoms. Nobody noticed.

 

If an elderly or sick person got infected and died, it was most probably attributed to pneumonia or, if he was sick, to that sickness. Again nobody noticed.

My add to this is in Thailand the tracking and identifying of exposed contacts here may have contributed to early actions to combat spreading. I don't believe  that occurred in any hot spot nations

Antibody tests although improving are still not as accurate as it was hoped.  Antibodies to other corona viruses are sometimes detected causing doubt as to whether the subject has had covid19.

The main reason for the antibody tests is not to prove immunity but to identify the number of people who are still vulnerable.

To date, there is not enough data to show immunity, if any, and how long that immunity will last.

Very early days on that score.

16 hours ago, timendres said:

From many posts here on TVF, this was the advice given by many Thai hospitals, telling patients to stay at home and only come to the hospital if they become seriously ill.

This has been a very specific instruction in our village.

 

If we suspect we have the virus, we are to stay home, self isolate and report our condition to the medical team. The doctor will come to the patient if necessary. DO NOT go to the hospital or clinic.

 

Thailand, especially in the rural communities have been far better prepared for this virus than many people think.

2 hours ago, sandyf said:

Do you have a reference to that claim. The man that is said to have started the ball rolling didn't do so until the latter part of December.

The second article is date 7th Jan and indicates several Asian countries had already started to screen arrivals.

 

“A new coronavirus infection has been confirmed and its type is being identified. Inform all family and relatives to be on guard,” Li Wenliang typed into a chat group with his former medical school classmates on Dec. 30, according to Caixin, a Beijing-based media group. Soon, Li’s message would resonate much farther. As the spiraling crisis emerged, he came to be known as the whistleblower of a virus that ultimately took his life.

https://time.com/5779678/li-wenliang-coronavirus-china-doctor-death/

 

If not SARS, then what is it?

According to the Wuhan health commission, the infection broke out between December 12 and December 29, with some of the patients employed at a seafood market in the city.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/06/health/china-pneumonia-intl-hnk/index.html

After the early reports, a group of Doctors in China did a detailed investigation into reports of hospital admissions in Wuhan, they identified cases from December 1st onwards.

 

It's a peer reviewed report from The Lancet - published around Feb I think. 

19 hours ago, Metropolitian said:

It could be that the majority of the people, also you and me, we are all already been infected.

The fatality is low, and the calculation would be lower too as whom were already infected and those who became sick and recovered won't get sick from this strain of covid.

 

The only thing how we can know for sure is testing on anti-bodies.

 

 

Interesting interview. (It's long, but try the first 10 minutes.)

I watched the whole video.

 

What a diplomat, very interesting, don't know whether to laugh or cry.

 

Kids go back to school, get it, become asymptomatic, come home and give it to dad who is 60, has a stent due to hypertension, is a pre-diabetic and would be lucky to survive if he is infected, as I keep hearing those with underlying conditions don't stand a chance.

 

Does it count that I am under 65 and relatively healthy, albeit have underlying conditions....lol

1 hour ago, Moonlover said:

Thailand, especially in the rural communities have been far better prepared for this virus than many people think.

Yep, had someone come and take our temperatures, and during the Songkran period, boom gates, authorities made sure everyone had masks on otherwise no entry, wife was turned back with 4 kids in the car, even though she was going 300 metres up the road to her mums, she wasn't happy, but as I explained to her, rules are rules, it's for everyone's safety, but I was in the car she said, and I said, take masks with you, don't need them, well som nam nah.

 

As we sit on our porch for our morning coffees and chat as the kids sleep, we see every 3 motorbike go by with no mask on, people starting to relax, and my wife naturally cursing them....lol.

25 minutes ago, 4MyEgo said:

I watched the whole video.

 

What a diplomat, very interesting, don't know whether to laugh or cry.

 

Kids go back to school, get it, become asymptomatic, come home and give it to dad who is 60, has a stent due to hypertension, is a pre-diabetic and would be lucky to survive if he is infected, as I keep hearing those with underlying conditions don't stand a chance.

 

Does it count that I am under 65 and relatively healthy, albeit have underlying conditions....lol

That’s the one thing that gets me about posters who keep going on about people with underlying conditions. They way they post is that these people were at deaths door and only had weeks left to live. Just because people had these underlying conditions they could have been expected to live for many years if they had not caught Covid.

Since we are into hypothesis...

 

From Thailand and Cambodia, expand the picture to the whole South East Asia, and then to East Asia.

 

It is not only these two countries...Malaysia, Vietnam, Burma, Laos and even Singapore have very few deaths.

 

And the resurgence of cases in Japan doesn't compare with what is going on in Italy or Spain, for example.

 

More generally, the Covid tracker clearly shows the massive difference in both cases and deaths between Western Europe + USA and all the East Asian countries.

 

If you remember, in the early days of the epidemic, some scientists speculated that the virus was mostly targeting Asian people, for complex biological reasons far beyond my comprehension.

 

That was before the virus had reached the West, or at least had started wreaking havoc over there.

 

So, what if it was exactly the opposite, and if the virus was in fact far more efficient in organisms other than Asians?

 

 

 

 

Is it possible that the relative lack of obesity in Asia, including Thailand, is a factor? Does it partly explain why the US, UK and other Western countries have been hit so hard? In New York it's reported that over 80% of patients admitted for Covid-19 are clinically obese.

 

On a purely anecdotal basis I visited my elderly father a few years ago in a Manchester hospital.The NHS nursing staff were on the whole wonderful but a disturbingly high number seemed to be very large indeed.

Thailand low????-

Thailand

All

Confirmed 2,938

Recovered 2,652

Deaths 54

Cambodia

All

Confirmed 122

Recovered 119

Deaths 0

Laos

Confirmed 19

Recovered 4

Deaths 0

Myanmar (Burma)

Confirmed 146

Recovered 16

Deaths 5

Malaysia

Confirmed 5,851

Recovered 4,032

Deaths 100

Singapore

Confirmed    14,951

Recovered 1,095

Deaths   14

fark me...all you guys need to find something else to spend your hours doing.....get off the internet and go prune some trees or something.....jeez

25 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

Since we are into hypothesis...

 

From Thailand and Cambodia, expand the picture to the whole South East Asia, and then to East Asia.

 

It is not only these two countries...Malaysia, Vietnam, Burma, Laos and even Singapore have very few deaths.

 

And the resurgence of cases in Japan doesn't compare with what is going on in Italy or Spain, for example.

 

More generally, the Covid tracker clearly shows the massive difference in both cases and deaths between Western Europe + USA and all the East Asian countries.

 

If you remember, in the early days of the epidemic, some scientists speculated that the virus was mostly targeting Asian people, for complex biological reasons far beyond my comprehension.

 

That was before the virus had reached the West, or at least had started wreaking havoc over there.

 

So, what if it was exactly the opposite, and if the virus was in fact far more efficient in organisms other than Asians?

 

 

 

 

If you include all S/SE Asian countries (except China) and also include Australasia, the total recorded infections is less than half the infections recorded in the UK alone, and less than a TENTH of deaths.

 

One added option for the low numbers in Thailand, nearly all of the older, high risk, population live in the village and very rarely leave (a trip to the nearest town is almost treated as an annual holiday 55). It's the younger generation that have moved to the cities and they are usually restricted to two or three visits back home per year. And, since Songkran was cancelled, visits so far for most have just been new year, before the virus took hold. Also if most of that younger generation only suffered very mild symptoms we might not see the explosion experienced in the older generations within some other countries. Antibody testing of the younger generation in the large towns,cities is needed.  

There was something interesting that I came across from "Reuters" about the virus in America.

Coronavirus came to New York from Europe, not China, governor says

 

(Reuters) – New York Governor Andrew Cuomo on Friday pointed to research showing that strains of the novel coronavirus entered his state from Europe, not China, and said that travel bans enacted by U.S. President Donald Trump were too late to halt its spread.

Cuomo cited research from Northeastern University estimating that more than 10,000 New Yorkers may have contracted the disease by the time the state had its first confirmed case on March 1. He said he believed Italy was the likely source.

The governor noted that Trump ordered a ban on travel from China on Feb. 2, more than a month after news reports had emerged about an outbreak in the city of Wuhan, and decided to restrict travel from Europe the following month. By that time, the virus had spread widely in the United States, he said.

“We closed the front door with the China travel ban, which was right,” Cuomo told a briefing. “But we left the back door open because the virus had left China by the time we did the China travel ban.”

 

The virus that Australia got is also not from China but from Europe and the Australian Minister Of Health Greg Hunt MP told a senate hearing in March that the WHO informed him of the Coronavirus on 1st January and he did not react to it until 19th January.

It has been shown that 90% of the virus transmissions have occurred in areas where the temperature has ranged from 3 to 17 degrees Celsius.  If Covid acts like other viruses it does not do well in heat and humidity.  I can certainly understand why it would not do well in Thailand plus the average age in Thailand is young compared to the West. 

23 hours ago, yuyiinthesky said:

And then, relax. The likelihood of an infection in a country, with such a high percentage of the population being immune already, is really small, and getting smaller every day.

 

There's been no credible scientific evidence or consensus, AFAIK, thus far that people who have been infected with CV are subsequently immune from catching it again at some later point. The presence of antibodies does not equal immunity.

 

From Johns Hopkins:

 

Quote

The WHO notes that there is not currently sufficient evidence to determine whether individuals who have been previously infected with SARS-CoV-2 are immune to future infections. Based on a review of a number of studies, most identified antibodies in individuals who recovered from the infection, but none have yet determined that the presence of these antibodies confers protection against future infection or at what level this would occur.

 

https://myemail.constantcontact.com/COVID-19-Updates---April-27.html?soid=1107826135286&aid=tUqMuxpj3S4

 

 

I was living in Wuhan November 2019 to January 17th 2020.  People there were talking about a Sars-like illness in the city in late Dec but details were scant other than the illness was situated in the city center.  I left Wuhan on Jan 17 with little or no inkling of what would unfold.

 

I surmise the virus spread slowly at first and then exploded sometime mid to late Jan.  Wuhan airport closed suddenly on Jan 23rd and the huge city was put in quarantine. Wuhan had several direct flights to Bkk and Hkt each day before the closure.  I think the main reason that few covid 19 cases happened in Thailand in January was because the Wuhan airport got shut down when it did (on the 23rd and not later).  Wuhan was the sole epicenter.  Other coronavirus cases from China or elsewhere trickled in to LOS from here and there later on.

I must admit with all the earmarks for Thailand to get devastated it has not happened (yet)

Thousands of Chinese tourists from China including Whuhan

Mass exodus (one) when they closed the bars & entertainment areas. 5,000 bodies caught buses in 48 hours up to the villages with no quarantine then.

Mass exodus (two) when they closed all shopping centres except essential services

Estimate 6,000 bodies moved themselves back to the provinces.30% private cars

This should have been a wonderful way to sprinkle the virus around most of Thailand.

It has not done so as we know now.

DEATHS    Even in Thailand the rate is exceptionally low & this can not (nor would the Govt do it)

hide these figures or there would be an uproar.

So why, Diet (some of the fiery food they eat nothing could survive

            Personal Hygiene ( washing, showering on a regular basis happens here

             Good subshine at the time    (UV light % very high

             Higher humidity  (it does make droplets heavier & fall to the ground quicker

             Oral Hygiene (most are particular about this ,,, even in the villages

              Greetings    (most are non contact, ie the wai even among parents & siblings)

              Antibodies    (an immune system in their body which has always been there)

This last one is close to the article as written above in that when they conrtact the virus

the antibodies cut in & nullify most of the disease.

Interesting that most deaths in Thailand have been obese,(this one higher than I thought )

Diabetes , lung & (or heart disease patients.

They did also very quicl;y take to face masks, alcohol gel was everywhere quickly & still is

Our apartment block in every lift (6) & at the entrance                 

 Figures fron US, Italy,

France, UK & even Germany. are terrible & remember Thailand had the first death outside China & 3 deaths before they even got serious in these places..Singapore has a problem of their own making in that they ommitted

to pay attention the their indentured labour (being addressed now)

but Indonesia (in particular Jakarta is a disaster& uncontrollable now)

How did we avoid the bullet, I am not sure, but so far ,,, very thankful, whoever or whatever

Yes, the OP theory is my current going theory as well. It's simply impossible with the amount of Wuhanese milling around in December/January that the virus would not have spread in SEA. 

 

If ýou check nextstrain for when the strain that was sequenced in Thailand in early January ( https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global?s=Nonthaburi/61/2020 ) , it can be seen the EU/US strains split off earlier, before Christmas. It's possible Thailand got a different strain. 

6 hours ago, tso310 said:

Again another thread which misses the point about the differences between Thai society and Europe. People don't touch each other here. Greeting someone with a wai is natural social distancing. The majority of Thais do not live in large westernised cities or if they do they were brought up in the far more conservative rural attitude to social etiquette. Teenagers holding hands in public very rare.

I'd like to debunk that one: Finland. We are notorious for keeping a very healthy social distance at the most social of times, hugging is a legit reason to chop off the head of the violator. Yet it started spreading and they closed the largest province.

23 hours ago, Kinnock said:

Plausible theory.

 

A few additions from me ....

 

First confirmed case as reported in The Lancet was 1 December - so it had been circulating in Wuhan during November.  Flight restrictions not started until 23 Jan - over 500,000 arrivals from Hubei Province by then.

 

Chinese visitors made to wear masks in China - they took them off on arrival into Thailand, didn't put them back on until their return flight.

 

Natural Vitamin D may also be a factor - helps people fight viruses, produced in the body by sunlight - lots in Thailand, not much in Wuhan or UK in the winter.

 

Most cases were in Bangkok - few old people in the city compared to countryside.

 

So the current hardship created by the restrictions are probably an unnecessary sacrifice.

 

The amount of tests are among the lowest compared to other countries,both in Asia and Europe. Lots of people died from pneumonia in February-March,but they kept saying it wasn't connected to the coronavirus. Go figure.  

1 hour ago, jayboy said:

Is it possible that the relative lack of obesity in Asia, including Thailand, is a factor? Does it partly explain why the US, UK and other Western countries have been hit so hard? In New York it's reported that over 80% of patients admitted for Covid-19 are clinically obese.

 

On a purely anecdotal basis I visited my elderly father a few years ago in a Manchester hospital.The NHS nursing staff were on the whole wonderful but a disturbingly high number seemed to be very large indeed.

Maybe the high numbers of people taking drugs to treat hypertension in US and UK is the key factor - which is related to obesity and one of the risk factors.

6 hours ago, tso310 said:

Again another thread which misses the point about the differences between Thai society and Europe. People don't touch each other here. Greeting someone with a wai is natural social distancing. The majority of Thais do not live in large westernised cities or if they do they were brought up in the far more conservative rural attitude to social etiquette. Teenagers holding hands in public very rare.

 

Rubbish Indonesia don't shake hands either

Indonesia has the highest number of coronavirus deaths in Asia outside of China

 

 

1 hour ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

There's been no credible scientific evidence or consensus, AFAIK, thus far that people who have been infected with CV are subsequently immune from catching it again at some later point. The presence of antibodies does not equal immunity.

Immunity would come from the T-cells an B-cells having learned how to recognize the virus and trigger antibody production. Vaccines teach them how to recognize pathogens. Antibodies are just a marker that the immune system has once mounted a defense. 

 

That's why the simple presence of antibodies does not equal immunity. The cells could forget.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6313890/

 

Perhaps a little bit easier presentation.. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immune_system#Adaptive_immune_system

1 hour ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

There's been no credible scientific evidence or consensus, AFAIK, thus far that people who have been infected with CV are subsequently immune from catching it again at some later point. The presence of antibodies does not equal immunity.

Nevertheless, with all the Coronaviruses we know, that is what happens, you get them, and when your immune system handled it you have acquired immunity for a while, about a year usually.

 

It is much more likely that with this Coronavirus it will be the same, than that this virus is totally different.

14 minutes ago, yuyiinthesky said:

Nevertheless, with all the Coronaviruses we know, that is what happens, you get them, and when your immune system handled it you have acquired immunity for a while, about a year usually.

 

It is much more likely that with this Coronavirus it will be the same, than that this virus is totally different.

 

Quote

WHO continues to review the evidence on antibody responses to SARS-CoV-2 infection.^2-17 Most of these studies show that people who have recovered from infection have antibodies to the virus. However, some of these people have very low levels of neutralizing antibodies in their blood,⁴ suggesting that cellular immunity may also be critical for recovery. As of 24 April 2020, no study has evaluated whether the presence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 confers immunity to subsequent infection by this virus in humans.

 

https://www.who.int/news-room/commentaries/detail/immunity-passports-in-the-context-of-covid-19