The real reason for the low numbers of Covid-19 cases in Thailand and Cambodia?

[rabas]

32 minutes ago, yuyiinthesky said:

Nevertheless, with all the Coronaviruses we know, that is what happens, you get them, and when your immune system handled it you have acquired immunity for a while, about a year usually.

 

It is much more likely that with this Coronavirus it will be the same, than that this virus is totally different.

Corona viruses do not generate particularly strong immune responses. Also, nCoV2019 is significantly different than the common human CoVs in its ability to attack the ACE2 receptor system through out the body.

 

"The typical coronavirus “common cold” is mild and the virus remains localized to the epithelium of the upper respiratory tract and elicits a poor immune response, hence the high rate of reinfection. There is no cross-immunity between human coronavirus-229E and human coronavirus-OC43, and it is likely that new strains are continually arising by mutation selection."  HERE

 

nCoV also mutates easily from initial reports. As of now it may be safer to say different rather than same. Safer yet to say not a lot is known.

[ujayujay]

22 hours ago, Retarded said:

He is going against the tide. Liberal media will never broadcast this interview.  

Its you, Donald.....??

[bkkcanuck8]

3 hours ago, rabas said:

nCoV also mutates easily from initial reports. As of now it may be safer to say different rather than same. Safer yet to say not a lot is known.

All RNA virus mutates regularly, sort of a genetic tree...  nCoV is does not mutate at an abnormal rate.  All those mutations - are not what they would call new strains of the virus, they are a nucleotide in difference here and there (out of about 30,000)... so the widest difference is maybe 99.985% the same to about 99.999%  (the SARS-CoV-1 aka SARS virus is about 79% the same).   This is basically the process called "antigenic drift" (not to be confused with "antigenic shift").   If you become immune to one of this slight variations -- you would be more than likely be immune to all of these copies with a slight variation.  Most of these virus copies would end up a dead end as the copy error from person A spread to Person B but if B does not get to infect anyone or it peters out... that variation ends.   This is a very gradual process that may eventually lead to a new version that is different enough that the immune system does not see it the same as it's close relatives, but this I doubt will happen in my lifetime.  Influenza virus which has lots and lots of different versions out there, which makes it more likely that you will have two varieties of the virus infect one host at one time and basically end up doing a wholesale swap of segments ("antigenic shift") of the virus (not just one tinsy bit) which if viable can lead to a new variety that your immune system does not recognize.  Then this has to also create a virus that is worse than the original or the same that your immune system does not recognize.   Since there are only a handful of virus (SARS1 (dead-end), MERS (mostly in camels and their dung - less i.e. less likely human to human transmission) or 4 strains that are the cold), it is very unlikely that this will lead to the same thing happening in human hosts.  If this were to happen it would likely happen in some animal host and a new version jump to a human host and have enough properties to spread through human transmission etc.  This also does not happen often, and likely won't happen in this pandemic.  In other words, not really much to worry about the virus changing enough to be seen as different to the immune system during this outbreak (could be 20 years, or 100 years down the road).   Hopefully during this timeframe we will as a whole be better prepared for that eventuality... [I am not a coronavirus researcher - just your average layman :o]

Edited April 28, 2020 by bkkcanuck8

[Andycoops]

No testing, no cases.

[jayboy]

13 minutes ago, Andycoops said:

No testing, no cases.

Yes that was also my initial thought, and it probably partly explains the low number of recorded cases in Thailand.But clearly there are several other major factors at work some of which have been touched on in this thread.If it was just a matter of under testing the hospitals would be full of Covid-19 patients, even overwhelmed by them.But this isn't happening (so far, touch wood).

[4MyEgo]

12 hours ago, Throatwobbler said:

That’s the one thing that gets me about posters who keep going on about people with underlying conditions. They way they post is that these people were at deaths door and only had weeks left to live. Just because people had these underlying conditions they could have been expected to live for many years if they had not caught Covid.

Totally agree, it's like saying, those with underlying conditions passed away because the got hit by the same car that is out of control, sooner or later it was inevitable, they might have died a few weeks later, a month or two or 6, so it's not that bad to go for a walk for everybody else because the majority of people can recover faster when they get hit by that uncontrollable car.

 

I understand what his saying, e.g. that our immune systems are at risk because of all the lollies they have give us to keep us alive over the years, but if Covid-19 visits us, it's game over, it would simpler to say that, but maybe he doesn't want to tread on pharmas toes for whatever reasons, don't get me wrong, grateful for the extra dozen years so far, lollies and all, but a spade is a spade is a spade, and the hand should be shown when the bluff is called.

 

So we are on our own and have to avoid this invisible death seeking virus, if I can do that, I reckon I got a good 10 years left or so, I hope.

 

[5633572526]

On 4/28/2020 at 6:36 AM, kenk24 said:

Since the virus is not typically known to survive the heat, I would guess that the summer heat here did not enable it to thrive - but it does exist... 

fake news

the virus thrives in your very hot very humid body 

[Onrai]

On 4/27/2020 at 10:53 PM, rabas said:

What gives? My guess is much of this confusion may be due to multiple strains of the virus in circulation that are not being taken in to account. It would explain a lot.

Virologists have been able to trace the virus strains across the US. 

They have concluded that the east coast was infected by a strain from Europe and West coast by the Chinese strain. Makes sense since the West coast is closer to China and the East coast closer to Europe. Netflix just released a well made documentary on the Coronavirus. Very informative.

[finnsk]

In this moment nobody knows the exact reasons to why the covid virus is working different around in the world.

 

It could be a reason, that the heat and the sun, maybe is a factor to the lower covid numbers in Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam etc..

 

It could also be a reason that many locally village people are poor and do not visit the hospitals, they simply die of "other" reasons, they are not tested for covid, this is a "good" way to keep down the covid numbers.

 

It could also be a reason that the political leaders wishes to show they can handle the covid epedimic.

 

It could also be a reason that the doctors and the hole hospital systems do not know how to organize the numbers and the informations in a reliable way. Or they had to let the numbers be "controlled" at the political leaders before they can publish the numbers.

 

In some western countries, where there is reliable death numbers and death reasons, the totally yearly death numbers is lower now under the covid lock downs, than in other years with out covid and lock downs. This is a very simple calculation, could be used to make a basic control at the covidnumbers in some other countries, where the covid numbers looks suspicious. If the yearly death rate is higher under the lock down in a country, than other years, then maybe they have fixed the numbers, if they show very low covid death reasons. I do not know the numbers and dont know where to find them for the asian countries.

 

I look forward to some serious experts and scientist can find the answers.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Saltire]

3 hours ago, 4MyEgo said:

Totally agree, it's like saying, those with underlying conditions passed away because the got hit by the same car that is out of control, sooner or later it was inevitable, they might have died a few weeks later, a month or two or 6, so it's not that bad to go for a walk for everybody else because the majority of people can recover faster when they get hit by that uncontrollable car.

 

I understand what his saying, e.g. that our immune systems are at risk because of all the lollies they have give us to keep us alive over the years, but if Covid-19 visits us, it's game over, it would simpler to say that, but maybe he doesn't want to tread on pharmas toes for whatever reasons, don't get me wrong, grateful for the extra dozen years so far, lollies and all, but a spade is a spade is a spade, and the hand should be shown when the bluff is called.

 

So we are on our own and have to avoid this invisible death seeking virus, if I can do that, I reckon I got a good 10 years left or so, I hope.

 

Yes one reason is so that insurance companies can still refuse a claim due to underlying conditions, rather than covid being the cause of death. That's what my insurance are saying when I asked am I covered. Can't win.

[Expat Brad]

Testing or not testing is irrelevant. It is the number of deaths that showed the cause was NOT just a corona virus but, the actual COVID19 strain. If, there was a jump in normal anual Thai deaths, this would appear..... but, it hasn't. Just maybe the herd immunity is working!!!

[1FinickyOne]

3 hours ago, 5633572526 said:

fake news

the virus thrives in your very hot very humid body 

by killing it... but so far not in my hot body... maybe yours, I don't know.

[thaibeachlovers]

On 4/28/2020 at 11:56 AM, Lacessit said:

something about Thailand which is inhibiting transmission, either one factor or a combination. For example, the wai, spicy food, mass BCG immunization, heat, humidity. Durian consumption?

The wai possibly, but I fail to see how any food can stop something in the blood stream.

I've said it before, humid heat is IMO the factor. Europe and North America in winter. Both Australia and NZ with similar culture and diet very low death rate.

[4MyEgo]

1 hour ago, Saltire said:

Yes one reason is so that insurance companies can still refuse a claim due to underlying conditions, rather than covid being the cause of death. That's what my insurance are saying when I asked am I covered. Can't win.

Fortunately for my family, my pre-existing condition occurred about a year after I was insured (life insurance) and my insurer advised me that as my cover was taken out prior to my heart attack, I am still covered as normal. That said, I won't be here to find out when the time comes, just hope they pay up, not that the family will need it, but something is better than nothing and that is why I am paying for the cover.

[bkkcanuck8]

2 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

The wai possibly, but I fail to see how any food can stop something in the blood stream.

I've said it before, humid heat is IMO the factor. Europe and North America in winter. Both Australia and NZ with similar culture and diet very low death rate.

Food contains nutrients which fuel for your body to work efficiently and properly.  If you are deficient in Vitamin D or C your immune system won't work optimally well and you will be more susceptible (to everything).  Similar with raw garlic, it has nutrients that are also beneficial to your immune system.  Additionally raw garlic also has antibiotic properties which could help in combating secondary (opportunistic bacterial infections - which in a certain number of cases will add to the complications of the disease).  So no, it does not magically stop something in your blood, but it fuels the immune system which allows it to work optimally to combat the new infection.  Consuming them after you are infected would do nothing for you.

 

The sunlight (UV radiation) will be a factor in significantly reducing the half-life of virus on fomite (surfaces etc.)... so much so that it could reduce the average R0 (average persons infected by one) to a level where any additional measures taken could reduce it to less than 1 new person infected by one infected person (then the # new cases keeps on going down until it reaches a nominal amount of new cases at most).   Same with proper ventilation - as it can clear the droplets hanging in the air rather quickly... (in malls and offices - it would typically hang around longer). 

Edited April 29, 2020 by bkkcanuck8

[DjChris28]

The government is faking it or the tests are not reliable. I had difficulty breathing about 8 weeks ago. Felt like someone had a hand around my neck. Wobbly legs. Hard to talk. Burning sensation in my chest. Massive loss of appetite. Hard to swallow food - Felt full all the time and my neck muscles were tightening. Sore/tired muscles around upper chest. When I got tested for COVID, I was negative. Could of just been stress and fear of the whole situation.

[DrTuner]

1 hour ago, DjChris28 said:

When I got tested for COVID, I was negative. 

The estimates for accuracy of RT-PCR hovers somwhere between 70-90%. Meaning there's a 10-30% chance of false negative.

 

Finnish hospital HUS estimated it could be only 50% if the errors and difficulties in sample taking are taken into account (I do have link, but in Finnish so not allowed to link here). In some cases they had to go down into the trachea to get a positive sample, as the disease had moved from the throat deeper into the lungs.

 

I personally know of one such case, she's now a sort of celebrity in Finland, was just on the from page of Hufvudstadsbladet. She got a negative at first, has had a 38+ degree fever for weeks now. She got the virus while on a holiday in Thailand, Krabi & Koh Lanta.

 

So, a negative might not be a real negative. 

Edited April 29, 2020 by DrTuner

[chessman]

10 hours ago, finnsk said:

In some western countries, where there is reliable death numbers and death reasons, the totally yearly death numbers is lower now under the covid lock downs, than in other years with out covid and lock downs.

People keep making statements like this but I’ve not seen any evidence for it. There is plenty of evidence the other way, evidence that suggests deaths are being severely under-reported. Look at this piece in the Financial Times analysing ‘excess mortality’ this year compared with previous years. Deaths this year are much higher in most places, even with reported Covid deaths added. 

https://www.ft.com/content/6bd88b7d-3386-4543-b2e9-0d5c6fac846c

they suggest excess mortality this year is 60% higher than previous average + Covid deaths.

this shouldn’t be a surprise. Most deaths from viruses are under-reported at the time. 

[Sheryl]

2 minutes ago, chessman said:

People keep making statements like this but I’ve not seen any evidence for it. There is plenty of evidence the other way, evidence that suggests deaths are being severely under-reported. Look at this piece in the Financial Times analysing ‘excess mortality’ this year compared with previous years. Deaths this year are much higher in most places, even with reported Covid deaths added. 

https://www.ft.com/content/6bd88b7d-3386-4543-b2e9-0d5c6fac846c

they suggest excess mortality this year is 60% higher than previous average + Covid deaths.

this shouldn’t be a surprise. Most deaths from viruses are under-reported at the time. 

In all the badly hit countries this is the case. Total deaths much higher -- sometimes 2 or 3 fold the norm -- and more than known COVID cases can account for. 

 

The gap is likely a mixture of COVID deaths not recorded as such and deaths from other causes that could have been prevented had health services been functioning notmally, but they weren't. (Hospital admissions for heart attacks are way down in US now and no reason to think people ate having fewer of them.)

 

Now in countries only mildly affected by the virus but with lockdowns in place the oppisite could indeed be the case i.e. fewer deaths than normal. Especially in cases like Thailand where road accidents are a major cause of death.

 

 

[thaibeachlovers]

14 hours ago, bkkcanuck8 said:

it fuels the immune system which allows it to work optimally to combat the new infection. 

So, explain why it doesn't prove fatal in the young ( mostly ), when most western youths have a terrible diet and live unhealthy lives hiding in their room on the computer. Most young people I see are fat and unfit. It's rare to see one not looking at a screen in their hand.

[thaibeachlovers]

9 hours ago, DjChris28 said:

The government is faking it or the tests are not reliable. I had difficulty breathing about 8 weeks ago. Felt like someone had a hand around my neck. Wobbly legs. Hard to talk. Burning sensation in my chest. Massive loss of appetite. Hard to swallow food - Felt full all the time and my neck muscles were tightening. Sore/tired muscles around upper chest. When I got tested for COVID, I was negative. Could of just been stress and fear of the whole situation.

Other diseases can cause those symptoms. Dengue is pretty bad too. Flu can kill.

[bkkcanuck8]

4 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

So, explain why it doesn't prove fatal in the young ( mostly ), when most western youths have a terrible diet and live unhealthy lives hiding in their room on the computer. Most young people I see are fat and unfit. It's rare to see one not looking at a screen in their hand.

Hmmm... So you are asking why people living in a bubble (giving a pathogen less opportunity to infect you) don't get sick more often than healthy people out in contact with people who might infect them? 

 

People with darker skin (African Americans for example) are currently being affected more than the average population with severity of Covid-19 and dying at a higher rate (regardless of socio-economic status).  Darker skin is more protective of sun and are also more likely to be Vitamin D deficient in northern climates.  (not sure of the science on this one - it is a factor that will have to be looked at).  This has been posited that this would be a contributing factor in this observation. 

 

The flu season also is more of an issue in Northern climates during winter when you are also more likely to be deficient in Vitamin D. 

[thaibeachlovers]

1 minute ago, bkkcanuck8 said:

Hmmm... So you are asking why people living in a bubble (giving a pathogen less opportunity to infect you) don't get sick more often than healthy people out in contact with people who might infect them? 

No, that's not what I asked.

[petedk]

10 hours ago, DjChris28 said:

The government is faking it or the tests are not reliable. I had difficulty breathing about 8 weeks ago. Felt like someone had a hand around my neck. Wobbly legs. Hard to talk. Burning sensation in my chest. Massive loss of appetite. Hard to swallow food - Felt full all the time and my neck muscles were tightening. Sore/tired muscles around upper chest. When I got tested for COVID, I was negative. Could of just been stress and fear of the whole situation.

It is possible that the kits are not reliable.  I don't know where they come from.

 

This morning I was reading that many countries in the EU (including Germany and Spain) have thrown millions of dollars worth of medical supplies from China away. Masks were faulty and din't filter properly, clothing was not up to standard and other things.

[petedk]

I believe the OP in thinking that many people were infected in the early stages and din't know it was Covid-19.

 

I started a thread here a long time time ago about my friend who had fever, body aches, coughing and high temperature. He then developed pneumonia and was admitted to hospital. At that time (I think it was early Jan) they didn't bother to test as he hadn't been out of the country.

 

At about the same time another close friend developed a high fever, body ache, coughing and sore throat shortly after his wife came back from a trip to China. On top of that he lost all sense of taste and smell. The doctor was a little baffled by this but with a good treatment of antibiotics he recovered.

 

Were these two infected? I don't know, but the second one seems highly likely.

 

Anyway, we are still very lucky in Thailand that we are not seeing the high mortality rates of the western world.

[bkkcanuck8]

17 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

No, that's not what I asked.

Why do some people get sick regularly and others do not.

 

I cannot remember the last time I had the flu -- probably have not had the flu in maybe 20 to 30 years.  As far as colds, I don't think I have had one of those for 5 years - so maybe once every 5 years I will get one...  Many people I work with will get the cold several times a year and the flu much more regularly than I do.   Some people get sick regularly, others don't.  I have not done research myself on it, it more often reported as being a topic for research because of a statistical difference researchers have identified and theorized is based on nutrition.   Maybe the youth you are looking at are getting their vitamin D from fortified milk (added vitamin D) and C from sugary juice drinks. 

 

Vitamin effects on the immune system: vitamins A and D take centre stage

[petedk]

2 minutes ago, bkkcanuck8 said:

Why do some people get sick regularly and others do not.

 

I cannot remember the last time I had the flu -- probably have not had the flu in maybe 20 to 30 years.  As far as colds, I don't think I have had one of those for 5 years - so maybe once every 5 years I will get one...  Many people I work with will get the cold several times a year and the flu much more regularly than I do.   Some people get sick regularly, others don't.  I have not done research myself on it, it more often reported as being a topic for research because of a statistical difference researchers have identified and theorized is based on nutrition.   Maybe the youth you are looking at are getting their vitamin D from fortified milk (added vitamin D) and C from sugary juice drinks. 

 

Vitamin effects on the immune system: vitamins A and D take centre stage

I think many people "get the flu" because they want a few days off work.

 

I have had the flu once in my life and that was an experience I don't want to go through again. My throat felt like it had a razor blade down there and I couldn't swallow. My body hurt every time i moved.

 

I think a heavy cold is often diagnosed by some as being the flu/ It is fantactic that they recover and are back to work after two days.

 

I get "sniffly" a lot, but that is more allergy which opens up when I sit near a cold air conditioner. I don't get many colds (maybe one a year).

[finnsk]

11 hours ago, chessman said:

People keep making statements like this but I’ve not seen any evidence for it. There is plenty of evidence the other way, evidence that suggests deaths are being severely under-reported. Look at this piece in the Financial Times analysing ‘excess mortality’ this year compared with previous years. Deaths this year are much higher in most places, even with reported Covid deaths added. 

https://www.ft.com/content/6bd88b7d-3386-4543-b2e9-0d5c6fac846c

they suggest excess mortality this year is 60% higher than previous average + Covid deaths.

this shouldn’t be a surprise. Most deaths from viruses are under-reported at the time. 

My source is danish statistic department, that shows the totally yearly death numbers is lower now under the covid crisis. Some of the reasons is that less people die of the air pollution, less people die in the trafic, less people die of normal influenza etc all because of the lock down. The point is that the normal deathrate will go down under a lock down, that give space to some covid related death before we will see the numbers increase over a normal yearly deathrate. So my simple point is, if a country have totally higher yearly deathnumbers and they in the same time shows low death numbers of covid, then there maybe can be fixed with the numbers.

[sumrit]

On 4/29/2020 at 7:56 AM, jayboy said:

Yes that was also my initial thought, and it probably partly explains the low number of recorded cases in Thailand

A lack of testing doesn't reduce the number of deaths. Tested or otherwise if somebody is exposed to the virus they will become infected. Testing will not determine who will die from covid 19 and who will survive.

 

High level testing will possibly highlight the speed that the virus is spreading, the hotspots and who is likely to be more vulnerable and reduce the number of deaths, not a lack of testing.

[bkkcanuck8]

On 4/30/2020 at 6:20 AM, thaibeachlovers said:

So, explain why it doesn't prove fatal in the young ( mostly ), when most western youths have a terrible diet and live unhealthy lives hiding in their room on the computer. Most young people I see are fat and unfit. It's rare to see one not looking at a screen in their hand.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3585561#.XqWfqZvYqW0.twitter

 

Quote

• Majority of the COVID-19 cases with insufficient and deficient Vitamin D status died.

• The odds of death was higher in older and male cases with pre-existing condition and below normal Vitamin D levels.

• When controlling for age, sex, and comorbidity, Vitamin D status is strongly associated with COVID-19 mortality.

 

Quote

Univariate Analysis

Each predictor was separately analyzed using univariate logistic regression (Table 2). Older cases (50 years and above) were approximately 10.45 times more likely to die than younger cases (at most 50 years) (OR=10.45; p<0.001). Male cases were approximately 5.73 times more likely to die from the disease than female cases (OR=5.73; p<0.001). Meanwhile, cases with pre- existing condition had increased odds of mortality compared to cases without (OR=11.24; p<0.001). With reference to normal cases, Vitamin D insufficient cases were approximately 12.55 times more likely to die (OR=12.55; p<0.001) while Vitamin D deficient cases were approximately 19.12 times more likely to die from the disease (OR=19.12; p<0.001).