The real reason for the low numbers of Covid-19 cases in Thailand and Cambodia?

[yuyiinthesky]

What is the real reason for the low numbers of Covid-19 cases in Thailand and Cambodia?

 

Many here say that the governments are faking the numbers of Corona positive tests. I don’t think so, I think there is no need to fake them. They are indeed that low. Here is, in my humble opionion, why:

1. We know that the Coronavirus is quite contagious, shows exponential grows.

2. The Coronavirus seems to have appeared beginning of December 2019.

3. The first noticed cases of Covid-19 were mid December 2019 in China.
4. The first travelers from Wuhan to Taiwan with Covid-19 where stopped around New Year.

All that time thousands, no ten thousands, of Chinese tourists and travelers were flying to Thailand and to Cambodia. Of course many from Wuhan.

There is no way that there were no Corona infected ones among them. But except Taiwan nobody was looking for them yet.

With the exponential growth of the quite contagious Coronavirus it spread fast. Under the radar. Nobody was looking.

Almost all of the infected ones in Thailand and even more so in Cambodia, with its young population, showed no symptoms. Nobody noticed.

 

If an elderly or sick person got infected and died, it was most probably attributed to pneumonia or, if he was sick, to that sickness. Again nobody noticed.

When Thailand and Cambodia started testing, end of February and in March, there was already a high percentage of the population which has had an infection, but where the immune system took control already. The tests are not antibody tests, they do not show that. The tests only show fresh infections.

The tests did find some positive cases, but not many, simply because too many were already through with the infection. Then the more were tested, the more cases were found, showing a growth. But no exponential growth anymore, because too many would not get infected (again), the virus already got slowed down by walls of immune persons, in March and latest April the herd immunity effect already started to kick in.

With the studies using antibody tests coming up now in California, New York, Germany and France, even there it shows that a significant percentage of the population already has antibodies, 4%, 15%, 21%, showing that the number of cases is also there magnitudes higher than the numbers given by the normal (not-antibody) tests.

 

However the Wuhan tourists and travelers went to Thailand and Cambodia first, and in much higher numbers, so there this effect has started much earlier, probably already end of December / beginning of January. It is not plausible and not logic that this did not happen.

How to be sure that this is what happened? Simple, some studies with a higher number of antibody tests in Thailand and in Cambodia will easily show it.

Especially the scaremongers among you, which always say how very contagious and exponentially growing this Coronavirus is, should understand easily that this scenario is very plausible.

 

And then, relax. The likelihood of an infection in a country, with such a high percentage of the population being immune already, is really small, and getting smaller every day.

Edited April 27, 2020 by yuyiinthesky

[Kinnock]

Plausible theory.

 

A few additions from me ....

 

First confirmed case as reported in The Lancet was 1 December - so it had been circulating in Wuhan during November.  Flight restrictions not started until 23 Jan - over 500,000 arrivals from Hubei Province by then.

 

Chinese visitors made to wear masks in China - they took them off on arrival into Thailand, didn't put them back on until their return flight.

 

Natural Vitamin D may also be a factor - helps people fight viruses, produced in the body by sunlight - lots in Thailand, not much in Wuhan or UK in the winter.

 

Most cases were in Bangkok - few old people in the city compared to countryside.

 

So the current hardship created by the restrictions are probably an unnecessary sacrifice.

 

[rabas]

37 minutes ago, yuyiinthesky said:

The tests did find some positive cases, but not many, simply because too many were already through with the infection. Then the more were tested, the more cases were found, showing a growth. But no exponential growth anymore, because too many would not get infected (again), the virus already got slowed down by walls of immune persons, in March and latest April the herd immunity effect already started to kick in.

Yes, the infection has spread to all, herd immunity has set in and its nearly over, except, two days ago  WHO announced  "There is currently no evidence that people who have recovered from COVID-19 and have antibodies are protected from a second infection."

 

There is also criticism of the Stanford antibody testing in California (you mentioned) that suggests the large number of presumed cases in the general population could be within the range of the antibody test errors, and that the statistics were not done correctly.

 

Contrast that with results from complete virus testing in the Ohio prisons showing some with 70% active infections and 95% of those are asymptomatic! And today's official global closed case fatality rate is 19% and open case fatality rate is 6.9% (of the 3,000,000 reported cases). New York was obliterated, California got off easy.

 

What gives? My guess is much of this confusion may be due to multiple strains of the virus in circulation that are not being taken in to account. It would explain a lot.

 

[onekoolguy]

I like your theory. Sounds reasonable to me!

Kind of thought it was due to the hot temperatures and humidity but this makes a lot of sense.

[ExpatOilWorker]

We should have had a higher excess death rate of Thailand have already achieved herd immunity.  

I think we haven't even been hit by the first wave yet.

https://www.ft.com/content/6bd88b7d-3386-4543-b2e9-0d5c6fac846c

[Metropolitian]

It could be that the majority of the people, also you and me, we are all already been infected.

The fatality is low, and the calculation would be lower too as whom were already infected and those who became sick and recovered won't get sick from this strain of covid.

 

The only thing how we can know for sure is testing on anti-bodies.

 

 

Interesting interview. (It's long, but try the first 10 minutes.)

 

 

[timendres]

45 minutes ago, Metropolitian said:

Interesting interview. (It's long, but try the first 10 minutes.)

Very interesting. This is a fantastic interview. Listen to his advise at 15:04 - "people who believe they are infected, but are not experiencing severe symptoms, should not go to the hospital" (which is justified by nosocomial infection issues explained starting at 7:12). From many posts here on TVF, this was the advice given by many Thai hospitals, telling patients to stay at home and only come to the hospital if they become seriously ill. This could be a large part of why Thailand has not yet experienced the explosions of Italy, Spain and New York.

[timendres]

1 hour ago, Metropolitian said:

Interesting interview. (It's long, but try the first 10 minutes.)

Having gone through 51 minutes of this interview, I must say it is the most balanced, thoughtful review of the situation I have seen to date. It is simply brilliant. After 51 minutes I cannot find one thing this doctor has said that is an overstatement, inaccurate, or biased. He is clearly well versed on the issue, and presents a very coherent understanding of the variables involved. I recommend it to everyone.

[Jingthing]

2 hours ago, Metropolitian said:

It could be that the majority of the people, also you and me, we are all already been infected.

The fatality is low, and the calculation would be lower too as whom were already infected and those who became sick and recovered won't get sick from this strain of covid.

 

The only thing how we can know for sure is testing on anti-bodies.

 

 

Interesting interview. (It's long, but try the first 10 minutes.)

 

 

Interesting but there are major flaws in the study, detailed in this article.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/23/coronavirus-antibody-studies-california-stanford

 

Quote

 

Why experts are questioning two hyped antibody studies in coronavirus hotspots

Investigations at California universities highlight challenges of research under pressure to provide quick answers

 

 

We already knew that official counts reflect a dramatic undercount but the question here is the degree of that.

 

It would be dangerously premature to accept the conclusions of this scientist as the final word on this matter. Definitely there should be further tests done with more scrutiny (and more accurate tests) going forward. 

[Relocated]

He is going against the tide. Liberal media will never broadcast this interview.  

Edited April 27, 2020 by Retarded

[Jingthing]

5 minutes ago, Retarded said:

He is going against the tide. Liberal media will never broadcast this interview.  

Those two studies were widely reported. This virus issue shouldn't be politicized either way. As I said above there is a lot of controversy about the technical accuracy of the tests and also other issues such as biased sampling. 

[offset]

Nothing said on this topic explains why there are few deaths in the many cases in hospitals

[1FinickyOne]

Since the virus is not typically known to survive the heat, I would guess that the summer heat here did not enable it to thrive - but it does exist... 

[Lacessit]

It's one hypothesis, but the only way to prove it is to basically test a fairly large population sample for coronavirus antibodies. Given an antibody test is costing farangs 8000 baht, not something that will be happening soon.

My alternative hypothesis is there is something about Thailand which is inhibiting transmission, either one factor or a combination. For example, the wai, spicy food, mass BCG immunization, heat, humidity. Durian consumption?

 

Way off topic, but I've always been fascinated by an unusual phenomenon in my GF's village. I'm Australian, Vegemite to me is as natural as breathing. Nothing can live in Vegemite, it is laden with salt.

Yet in my GF's village, and ONLY there, is an organism that can grow a white mould on Vegemite. I can only have tubes of Vegemite there, an open jar never fails to start growing mould.

Edited April 28, 2020 by Lacessit

[ExpatOilWorker]

1 hour ago, Lacessit said:

It's one hypothesis, but the only way to prove it is to basically test a fairly large population sample for coronavirus antibodies. Given an antibody test is costing farangs 8000 baht, not something that will be happening soon.

My alternative hypothesis is there is something about Thailand which is inhibiting transmission, either one factor or a combination. For example, the wai, spicy food, mass BCG immunization, heat, humidity. Durian consumption?

 

Way off topic, but I've always been fascinated by an unusual phenomenon in my GF's village. I'm Australian, Vegemite to me is as natural as breathing. Nothing can live in Vegemite, it is laden with salt.

Yet in my GF's village, and ONLY there, is an organism that can grow a white mould on Vegemite. I can only have tubes of Vegemite there, an open jar never fails to start growing mould.

[FarFlungFalang]

2 hours ago, kenk24 said:

Since the virus is not typically known to survive the heat, I would guess that the summer heat here did not enable it to thrive - but it does exist... 

I agree there is a lot of guessing and I'm guessing that Ecuador in south America and Singapore haven't been help much by similar weather maybe the numbers are getting help from the those that release those numbers.

 

[DavisH]

Countries with high infection rates tend to have high antibody rates (given those antibody tests are accurate). NY state has an antibody rate around 20%, but they also have very high infection rates and death rates. I don't think the virus has been spreading in Thiland and unnoticed, not given the very low infection and death rates here. Even 20% doesn't give her immunity - it needs to be at least 65-70%. There are other factors at work. 

[1FinickyOne]

19 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

I agree there is a lot of guessing and I'm guessing that Ecuador in south America and Singapore haven't been help much by similar weather maybe the numbers are getting help from the those that release those numbers.

 

what makes you think Ecuador is hot? 

[Barley]

Guayaquil in Ecuador is incredibly hot, Quito is high in the mountains and has temperate climate.

The equator is going right through Ecuador. 

[ExpatOilWorker]

12 minutes ago, Barley said:

Guayaquil in Ecuador is incredibly hot, Quito is high in the mountains and has temperate climate.

The equator is going right through Ecuador. 

You are right, it is like Bangkok during the raining season.

I guess we will soon be able to confirm or dismiss the hit weather/UV theory. 

[bkkcanuck8]

7 hours ago, Lacessit said:

It's one hypothesis, but the only way to prove it is to basically test a fairly large population sample for coronavirus antibodies. Given an antibody test is costing farangs 8000 baht, not something that will be happening soon.

My alternative hypothesis is there is something about Thailand which is inhibiting transmission, either one factor or a combination. For example, the wai, spicy food, mass BCG immunization, heat, humidity. Durian consumption?

 

Way off topic, but I've always been fascinated by an unusual phenomenon in my GF's village. I'm Australian, Vegemite to me is as natural as breathing. Nothing can live in Vegemite, it is laden with salt.

Yet in my GF's village, and ONLY there, is an organism that can grow a white mould on Vegemite. I can only have tubes of Vegemite there, an open jar never fails to start growing mould.

Some possibilities

- Lots of visitors from China, but the largest hot spots in China were locked down by the end of January - so even if the border was open, it was closed on the Chinese side (counts for some of it).

- I suspect a lot of the testing for the virus is sold/done by the private hospitals checking to see if someone has Covid-19 -- so they can transfer them over to the public hospital (don't want contaminated people affecting the profitability). 

- The majority of Thais live without AC in ventilated / fan accommodations (cheaper).  Ventilated areas will cause the virus to have a shorter half-life (something that was identified back in the Spanish Flu area when they found the emergency tent accomodations had better numbers.

- If a person gets it in rural Thailand, they are more likely to suffer it in private and die in private (without testing) since right now there is a stigma with being infected (face). 

- In areas outside of Bangkok and major metropolitan areas, people spend less time in malls and more time outdoors.  The UV radiation and ventilation will significantly reduce the half-life on surfaces... which should help reduce the R0 (infection rate) ... which could reduce the growth rate of the virus.  This would allow lesser changes in behaviour to bring the virus under control. 

- As many people are exposed to sufficient sunlight year around they should not be deficient in vitamin D - which helps the immune system and may reduce the severity of cases.  (on the other side hidden morbidities are actually quite high in Thailand).

- Diet is heavy in citrus, which means probably most Thais would not be Vitamin C deficient (another immunity nutrient)

- Diet which includes the consumption of raw garlic (Som Tam) - is also another significant immunity booster.  It is also an antibiotic which can reduce the likelihood of secondary infections causing some more severe cases. 

- Under reporting (while doing tracking and tracing) which would reduce the visibility of the infection - while also fighting the spread.  I think I have seen Khon Kaen have case #5 in March, then a few weeks ago they had another case #5.

 

 

[TheFishman1]

After reading your theory there’s not enough evidence if you have the virus then You can’t catch it again Maybe it’s a different type of virus and the flu virus time will tell Not enough test here to prove your logic either way TAT

[PETERTHEEATER]

14 hours ago, timendres said:

This is a fantastic interview.

Your right there. Exists only in fantasy. Please show the real version.

[elliss]

Rainy season is late this year,  keeps the virus at bay..

[tso310]

Again another thread which misses the point about the differences between Thai society and Europe. People don't touch each other here. Greeting someone with a wai is natural social distancing. The majority of Thais do not live in large westernised cities or if they do they were brought up in the far more conservative rural attitude to social etiquette. Teenagers holding hands in public very rare.

 

[jomtien99]

To add to why not so many infections in Thailand and Cambodia, as you travel around both countries you will have noticed that most Chinese tourists come in groups, they stay together in hotels, buses, boats, shops etc and do not really mix with the locals at all, so I assume if there was much transmission it was amongst themselves + the tour guide, the bus driver and the hotel/restaurant staff but not the general population unlike tourists from other countries. 

[sandyf]

17 hours ago, Kinnock said:

First confirmed case as reported in The Lancet was 1 December - so it had been circulating in Wuhan during November. 

Do you have a reference to that claim. The man that is said to have started the ball rolling didn't do so until the latter part of December.

The second article is date 7th Jan and indicates several Asian countries had already started to screen arrivals.

 

“A new coronavirus infection has been confirmed and its type is being identified. Inform all family and relatives to be on guard,” Li Wenliang typed into a chat group with his former medical school classmates on Dec. 30, according to Caixin, a Beijing-based media group. Soon, Li’s message would resonate much farther. As the spiraling crisis emerged, he came to be known as the whistleblower of a virus that ultimately took his life.

https://time.com/5779678/li-wenliang-coronavirus-china-doctor-death/

 

If not SARS, then what is it?

According to the Wuhan health commission, the infection broke out between December 12 and December 29, with some of the patients employed at a seafood market in the city.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/06/health/china-pneumonia-intl-hnk/index.html

[yuyiinthesky]

9 hours ago, Lacessit said:

It's one hypothesis, but the only way to prove it is to basically test a fairly large population sample for coronavirus antibodies. Given an antibody test is costing farangs 8000 baht, not something that will be happening soon.

Are such antibody tests available in Thailand or Cambodia?

[yuyiinthesky]

13 minutes ago, jomtien99 said:

To add to why not so many infections in Thailand and Cambodia, as you travel around both countries you will have noticed that most Chinese tourists come in groups, they stay together in hotels, buses, boats, shops etc and do not really mix with the locals at all

I have experienced such busloads of Chinese tourists storming through a supermarket, or through a tourist attraction. Shouting and spitting, and using their elbows if you get in their way. Very close contact to everyone there, you can't escape them. So yes, they stay in groups, but there is close contact, and the hotel staff, bus drivers, vendors, massage staff will eventually go home and bring the virus with them.

[yuyiinthesky]

23 minutes ago, tso310 said:

Again another thread which misses the point about the differences between Thai society and Europe. People don't touch each other here. Greeting someone with a wai is natural social distancing. The majority of Thais do not live in large westernised cities or if they do they were brought up in the far more conservative rural attitude to social etiquette. Teenagers holding hands in public very rare.

 

Yes, no shaking hands, but instead of that drinking from the same glass, the same bottle, eating from the same plate, using the same spoon. 
Many sleep in the same room, family members and relatives. There are often not many rooms, and just one bathroom. So while they are not holding hands when going outside i think there is still ample close contact, definitely more than in the Western world.