Covid-19: Thailand's outbreak will be all over by June - world must wait till November

[DrTuner]

4 minutes ago, tomazbodner said:

Interesting. Just checked and Thailand isn't even listed...

 

Maybe they found out the data does not fit the SIR model at all. I would not be surprised. Check f.ex. New Zealand, it fits near perfectly. A sign of good testing.

 

Or they got an angry call from MoPH.

Edited April 29, 2020 by DrTuner

[transam]

3 minutes ago, tomazbodner said:

Interesting. Just checked and Thailand isn't even listed...

 

Neither are the neighbours, Lao, Burma, Cambodia.....

[tomauasia]

0 credibilty if army let China back in. Thailand is finished 

[billd766]

6 hours ago, thequietman said:

Unless the borders are open to the Chinese and other tourists, then Thailand will be in December before improvements even start to show, if at all. ????

 

IMHO the government would like to keep this going as long as possible to "keep control" of the people and the country.

 

There will be very many Thais with long memories this time around.

[UbonThani]

7 minutes ago, tomazbodner said:

Interesting. Just checked and Thailand isn't even listed...

 

Taiwan soumds the same

[DrTuner]

8 minutes ago, GreasyFingers said:

So you were not involved in writing early computer programs. GIGO meant that the program as written was faulty so it did not matter what data was put in, the result was wrong.

Well in this case the input data itself is suspect. The SIR model has been around since early 20th century: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compartmental_models_in_epidemiology#The_SIR_model

 

What they did was to fit the SIR model to the data from ECDC, but ECDC gets it from MoPH - the same numbers we see in the daily propaganda threads. 

 

They didn't do the fitting algo either, it's from here: https://www.mathworks.com/matlabcentral/fileexchange/74658-fitviruscovid19

Edited April 29, 2020 by DrTuner

[DrTuner]

4 minutes ago, UbonThani said:

Taiwan soumds the same

CCP thinks both belong to China so samesame.

[DrTuner]

The calculation was on 26th according to the OP, since then SUTD has decided not to publish them or the fitted SIR graphs for Thailand.

 

I'd love to know why. The data from ECDC - MoPH has been updated, so it's not that.

Edited April 29, 2020 by DrTuner
typo

[pineapple01]

Translated. We got it first fresh from China .Delivered by Air and distributed by Tour Busses. A Spokesman for KERRY  said they undercut their bid.

[billd766]

4 hours ago, hanssna said:

And disbelief, negativity, cynicism, distrust and (again) Thai (TAT) bashing again on TV..   as expected. 

 

Even the slightest positivity, this time from Singapore, must be drilled into the ground. 

 

And when in the last nearly 6 years has TAT ever got its facts and figures correct?

 

This isn't Thai bashing, it is reality versus dreams.

 

Just think on this. Where will all the tourists come from?

 

In most countries of the world, including Thailand, millions of people have lost their jobs.

 

Do you think that they will say, good we have got our jobs back, why don't we fly off to Thailand and have a holiday?

 

 Or will they be more likely to say, good we have got our jobs back, now we can buy food and pay our outstanding debts, we can put money back in the bank for the next pandemic?

 

That of course IF they all get their jobs back.

 

Just imagine, you spend all your money on a 2 week holiday to Thailand and spend those 2 weeks in isolation. Great way to spend your money.

Edited April 29, 2020 by billd766
added extra text

[Krataiboy]

7 hours ago, dinsdale said:

It's a bit hard to see but according to this it's already over in China. Hands up who believes this. Guess that puts a bit of a question mark on the varacity of these figures. 

This is the disclaimer from their website.

*Disclaimer: Content from this website is STRICTLY ONLY for educational and research purposes and may contain errors. The model and data are inaccurate to the complex, evolving, and heterogeneous realities of different countries. Predictions are uncertain by nature. Readers must take any predictions with caution. Overly optimism based on some predicted end dates is dangerous because it may loosen our disciplines and controls and cause the turnaround of the virus and infection, and must be avoided.

I'm waiting for Neil Ferguson and his Imperial College eggheads to crunch the numbers again. 

[Krataiboy]

They said World War 1 would be over by Christmas.

[DrTuner]

I'm having a chuckle though, those that shouted their lungs out "it's just a mathematical model!" when the predictions were dire, are now shouting "this is da gospel!" for the same mathematical model ????

 

Only the parameters have changed.

Edited April 29, 2020 by DrTuner

[PETERTHEEATER]

7 hours ago, petermik said:

 

Lottery number predictions please.....oh gifted one.....

A sign, a sign Oh Guru!

[DrTuner]

4 hours ago, hanssna said:

And disbelief, negativity, cynicism, distrust and (again) Thai (TAT) bashing again on TV..   as expected. 

 

Even the slightest positivity, this time from Singapore, must be drilled into the ground. 

All roads lead to MoPH. Also in this case. It's their data. So, distrustus maximus it is. Because they've earned it.

[Krataiboy]

4 hours ago, Lupusthai said:

Obviously this study is educational for basic classes of mathematical statistics:
They use only the 1st (arithmetic mean) and 2nd (standard deviation) moment to fit a Gauß-distribution to empirical data.
(blue line)
Maybe in the second course there will be an introduction of fitting curves even using the 3rd (skewness) moment? (red line)
                       IMHO would provide a better fit and a better prognosis!

While their left foot was crackin' walnuts!

[billd766]

2 hours ago, belfast3 said:

The big challenge is going to be tourism, getting people into the country obviously risks further spread.

 

Covid19 certificate and/or 14 days quarantine is going to rule out 99% of tourists. 

Thank you for the brutal truth and reality,

[Krataiboy]

4 hours ago, GAZZPA said:

even if the virus is gone in Thailand it is not almost everywhere else. It is good for the people of Thailand as they can get back to work but the tourism will not return any time soon. As I think everyone knows now we can't stop the coronavirus, we have to wait for an effective vaccine. 

You don't have a best friend called Bill, do you? Geeky looking guy in glasses, who made a mint out of computer software but dreamed of becoming doctor to the world?

[GAZZPA]

1 hour ago, Spellforce said:

@GAZZPA

 

I dont agree, I think that some countries have to be put on a quarantine/ban list untill they are completly cleared = new cases per day in the country < 10.

The world will not be clear of it until the vaccine is available. Some countries may show no cases and if the isolate themselves completely from the outside world they may be able to stay free of it. That includes no people or even product. So nobody is safe until the vaccine is available. in countries that are not testing much I would have doubts you can guarantee they have no cases.

[Choochai]

Trash in - Trash out

That's how they started and how they prolong this plandemic...

[GAZZPA]

8 minutes ago, Krataiboy said:

You don't have a best friend called Bill, do you? Geeky looking guy in glasses, who made a mint out of computer software but dreamed of becoming doctor to the world?

I take it you disagree. So what do you forecast will happen? I think we will beat it with a vaccine and not before. Can't see how we will beat it without one, it is now growing in South America, we can only hope the warmer climate will slow the spread there.

[UbonThani]

1 minute ago, Choochai said:

Trash in - Trash out

That's how they started and how they prolong this plandemic...

doomsday cult people

[GAZZPA]

20 minutes ago, Krataiboy said:

They said World War 1 would be over by Christmas.

how old are you?

[CG1 Blue]

49 minutes ago, johnnybangkok said:

There are a lot of comparisons that can be made with Spanish Flu and the C19 pandemic but Spanish Flu was much more deadly because mistakes were made that are being mirrored by many governments (noteably the UK and US) to include governments initially playing down the pandemic whilst they focused almost entirely on the last big push to end the war and telling the public it's not a big problem, or, as the name suggests, that it was a foreign disease that only affects 'others,'". In the US there was no federal response so this left cities and states to go off on their own and make decisions for themselves, creating inconsistancies in response and effectivenes (who and what does that remind you of?).

 

And the cure? Yes, you guessed it, self-isolation and social distancing. 'Cities that acted earliest and most forcefully -- like St. Louis, which imposed a near total lockdown within two days of its first Spanish flu case -- had much lower peak death rates than cities that hedged their bets -- like New Orleans, Boston and Philadelphia.

 

Covid 19 is not the worlds first rodeo. We've been through this before and we know what to do and so do the experts, so if we just stop arguing against the professionals (yes, i know there's a lot of conflicting advice but generally most experts agree on self-isolation, social distancing etc) stay the course and stop listening to people who recommend ingesting disinfectant for example, we should be good. 

 

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200420/four-lessons-from-the-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic#3

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6477554/

We should also remember that the Spanish Flu was over 100 years ago. I'd like to think we're more capable as a society to deal with a pandemic than we were 100 years ago. I think doctors were still prescribing cigarettes back in those days...

[GAZZPA]

1 hour ago, vermin on arrival said:

Yes, I am aware of that statement which may or may not be true, but we can't stay like this forever. We need to find a way to continue to live. Staying in lockdown for 1 to 2 years waiting for a vaccine which may not come makes no sense. However, I have read of some success using one on monkeys by researchers at Oxford just today.

I think we will tread a careful line of opening up the lockdowns whilst observing social distancing to get the economies moving again but for sure I cannot see a return to a new normal until we get the vaccine. Herd immunity may not be proven but it is pretty scientifically accepted that once you have it and your body recovers you generate anti bodies from the virus, for how long we don't know. Some vaccines you have once in your life others once a year, this is a new virus so we don't know for sure yet. This is what I think sounds likely, but of course we will all know over time. Stay safe.

 

[OneMoreFarang]

7 hours ago, UbonThani said:

what i said 6 weeks ago

no spreadsheet needed

From now on we will all consult Ubon the Thani, or as they call him, The Wise Guy.

Did you try already one of those injections which your hero suggested recently?

[DrTuner]

9 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

We should also remember that the Spanish Flu was over 100 years ago. I'd like to think we're more capable as a society to deal with a pandemic than we were 100 years ago. I think doctors were still prescribing cigarettes back in those days...

It's a novel virus, so might as well pass on the ciggies. There's no effective treatment yet.

 

The difference that we do have, is internet and mobile phones and the data from them, especially location data. That, combined with accurate testing data with good coverage, could be a game changer.

 

But when the testing data is held more secret then the nuclear launch codes, back to 1900's.

Edited April 29, 2020 by DrTuner

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

19 minutes ago, vermin on arrival said:

Yes, I am aware of that statement which may or may not be true, but we can't stay like this forever. We need to find a way to continue to live. Staying in lockdown for 1 to 2 years waiting for a vaccine which may not come makes no sense. However, I have read of some success using one on monkeys by researchers at Oxford just today.

 

Lots of feverish vaccine activity occurring:

 

 

Quote

 

COVID-19 vaccine could be ready for emergency use by fall

Apr. 28, 2020 8:51 PM ET|About: Pfizer Inc. (PFE)|By: Douglas W. House, SA News Editor 
 

Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) is the latest vaccine developer saying that it may have a candidate ready for emergency use in the U.S. by late Q3/early Q4, yet another example of the breathtaking development speed, potentially only 9-10 months from the publication of the genetic sequence of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in January to vaccine availability, a process that usually takes ~10-11 years.
 

In the company's earnings call this morning, chief Albert Bourla said the company is planning to make "millions" of doses by the end of the year based on the expectation that clinical trials will be successful followed by a prompt FDA nod. He says the company will be able to produce "hundreds of millions" of doses in 2021.
 

The race to the finish line is in full stride. Sanofi (NASDAQ:SNY), GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE:GSK) and Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) are all working feverishly to generate clinical data and ramp up production to meet what should be extraordinary global demand. All four companies together should be able to produce ~2B+ doses annually if their projections are accurate.

 

 

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3565740-covidminus-19-vaccine-be-ready-for-emergency-use-fall

 

Note that all of the above is "based on the expectation that clinical trials will be successful" -- which remains to be seen.

 

 

[DrTuner]

1 minute ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

Lots of feverish vaccine activity occurring:

That's a deliberate pun, yes?

[vermin on arrival]

8 minutes ago, GAZZPA said:

I think we will tread a careful line of opening up the lockdowns whilst observing social distancing to get the economies moving again but for sure I cannot see a return to a new normal until we get the vaccine. Herd immunity may not be proven but it is pretty scientifically accepted that once you have it and your body recovers you generate anti bodies from the virus, for how long we don't know. Some vaccines you have once in your life others once a year, this is a new virus so we don't know for sure yet. This is what I think sounds likely, but of course we will all know over time. Stay safe.

 

Well the new "normal" might be people out and about working with masks on, using hand sanitizer, having temperature checks, Having less physical contact, but with a society that can function in some way. And of course, much more fast and relatively inexpensive testing so we really understand what is going on. I saw Taiwan has developed one machine that can do the test in 15 minutes.

Edited April 29, 2020 by vermin on arrival