Coronavirus scrambles 2020 expectations for Trump in must-win Florida

[webfact]

Coronavirus scrambles 2020 expectations for Trump in must-win Florida

By James Oliphant, Steve Holland and Saundra Amrhein

 

FILE PHOTO: U.S. President Donald Trump departs on travel to the Camp David presidential retreat from the South Lawn at the White House in Washington, U.S., May 1, 2020. REUTERS/Carlos Barria/File Photo

 

TAMPA, Fla. (Reuters) - Before the coronavirus pandemic, Desi Marinov considered herself "apolitical." The Fort Lauderdale, Florida, flight attendant didn't even bother to vote in the 2016 presidential election.

 

Losing her job due to lockdowns to curb the spread of the coronavirus and then waiting weeks for unemployment benefits has changed all that. Now she is determined to make sure President Donald Trump is not re-elected in November.

 

“I will go and vote and will convince as many people as I can … that this is the wrong type of leadership,” she said.

 

Marinov, 42, is the kind of voter that keeps the Trump campaign up at night. Of all the battleground states he won in 2016, Florida is the biggest prize with 29 Electoral College votes.

 

Trump had been considered the favorite to win Florida again over the prospective Democratic nominee, Joe Biden, despite edging out Hillary Clinton there by just 1.2%.

 

But two months into the biggest crisis of his presidency, the Republican has received mixed reviews for his response. Florida's Governor Ron DeSantis, a staunch Trump ally, meanwhile, has been criticized for being slow to close beaches and blamed for a faulty unemployment compensation system that locked hundreds of thousands out of benefits.

 

Recent polls now show Biden neck-and neck or slightly ahead of Trump in Florida as well as nationally. Trump’s internal polling shows the same, according to a Republican source close to his re-election campaign.

 

One in five Floridians are aged 65 and older, the age group most vulnerable to the coronavirus, compared with one in six nationally, according to U.S. census data from 2019.

 

“It’s much more competitive than it was. He doesn’t have the edge with seniors that he had before,” the source said, asking not to be identified because he was not authorized to speak to the media. "Florida... is in play."

 

According to a Reuters/Ipsos national opinion poll from mid-April, only about a third of Americans 55 and older think the country is headed in the right direction, down 6 percentage points from a similar poll in February.

 

Their preference in November's election showed a small improvement for Biden, who drew 44% support from older Americans, about the same amount as Trump, who had 45%, according to the poll.

 

Biden's strength with independent voters such as Marinov also appears to be growing, albeit marginally. He had a 4% lead among self-identified independents in April, compared to his 2% advantage in February.

 

Trump has been frustrated by the recent polls, at one point sharply questioning his campaign manager, Brad Parscale, over the numbers, according to a source familiar with the matter.

 

In an interview with Reuters on Wednesday, Trump said he did not believe his lock on the state was in jeopardy.

 

“I don’t think so," Trump said, but added, "Look, I haven’t been looking at polls for a while.”

 

GRAPHIC: Calendar of each state’s Democratic nominating contest and its allocated delegates - https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-ELECTION-CALENDAR/0100B31F26V/index.html)

 

RE-OPENING FLORIDA

Of the major battleground states in the general election - also including Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Arizona - DeSantis has been the most aggressive about re-starting his state's economy, which is heavily reliant on tourism and services.

 

About one million of Florida's estimated 10 million-strong workforce lost jobs during the pandemic. State government data as of Thursday shows that about half of them have not been able to claim benefits after its automated compensation system crashed.

 

“We’re on the path to economic suicide,” said Ford O’Connell, a former Republican congressional candidate in Florida who regularly consults with the Trump re-election campaign on strategy. “The sooner DeSantis is able to return Florida to a sense of safety, the better Trump is.”

 

Florida plans to partially reopen on Monday, despite concerns among public health experts including on Trump’s team about the possibility of a spike in new cases should states ease social distancing measures too quickly.

 

"That might not go over well either," the Republican source close to the campaign said.

 

Russell Green, 61, who suffers from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, is one of those who worries he and others will be at risk if the state opens too quickly. He believes Trump failed to take the spread of the virus seriously.

 

An independent who voted for Democrat Barack Obama in 2008 and Republican Mitt Romney in 2012, the Naples resident plans to vote for Biden this time.

 

Economists say that with summer generally the slowest season for Florida's industries, any economic rebound from a successful re-opening may not be apparent by November.

 

Trump's allies say even a small uptick will benefit Trump's re-election odds.

 

“Three months after this, people are going to say (DeSantis) handled it right and the president handled it right,” said Brian Ballard, a top Florida lobbyist and Republican power-broker.

 

(GRAPHIC: Delegate tracker and results - https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-ELECTION-DELEGATE-TRACKER/0100B5DR3JT/index.html)

 

A NEW OPENING

Sensing a possible opening in the state but with all in-person campaigning stopped due to the pandemic, Biden and his allies are doing what they can to reach voters in Florida.

 

This week, he gave an interview to local media in Miami, criticizing Trump's handling of the pandemic, and local Democrats such as U.S. Representative Val Demings of Orlando, who is considered a possible vice-presidential pick, have been arguing his case for the presidency.

 

Democratic Super PAC Priorities USA plans to spend at least $13 million airing ads in Florida between now and Election Day, said Daniela Martins, the group’s Florida outreach director.

 

But Biden will need to raise much more money to stay visible in the state, which has several expensive media markets, analysts say. By the end of March, Biden trailed Trump in cash on hand by more than $180 million.

 

Mary Jane Lukas, 45, of Gainesville, Florida, an independent voter who supported a third-party candidate in 2016, remains unconvinced. She said she was leaning toward Trump, largely because she thinks Biden has kept too low a profile during the crisis.

 

“I don’t want to vote for (Trump)," Lukas said, "but I feel like I have to."

 

(GRAPHIC: Where the candidates stand on key issues - https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-ELECTION-POLICIES/0100B5C33D8/index.html)

 

(Reporting by James Oliphant and Steve Holland in Washington and Saundra Amrhein in Tampa, Editing by Soyoung Kim and Sonya Hepinstall)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-05-04

 

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[Shocked]

Ruters BS Liberal Fake News. Give us a break. Trump 2020 LANDSLIDE. 

[keith101]

2 hours ago, webfact said:

“I don’t think so," Trump said, but added, "Look, I haven’t been looking at polls for a while.”

What a load of BS it will on top of everything else as his reelection is ore important to him than anything else .

[Tug]

Just wait till the second wave hits this fall donald will be lucky to escape beeing tarred and feathered imo and that’s just the virus there’s still all the issues they are desperately trying to distract everyone from imo trumps toast

[Phuket Stan]

2 hours ago, Shocked said:

Ruters BS Liberal Fake News. Give us a break. Trump 2020 LANDSLIDE. 

You must be offering very liberal odds about this happening

What are they.....You may get a few takers 

[sprq]

Idiotic American presidential election system. Electing a national leader state by state is totally illogical, especially given the electoral college aspect. Name me another major nation that elects its leader this way instead of simply counting the total nationwide votes, which is the ONLY fair way to do it. Look to France for how to do it: a first round with multiple candidates, then a second round two weeks later with a run-off between the top two, both rounds counted nationally.

[CaptRon2]

1 hour ago, Tug said:

Just wait till the second wave hits this fall donald will be lucky to escape beeing tarred and feathered imo and that’s just the virus there’s still all the issues they are desperately trying to distract everyone from imo trumps toast

Please tell us what issues the Republican Party is trying to distract from so we can have an actual discussion addressing them, and of course offer our factual rebuttals to your points. 

In my opinion the The Durham Report, Bidens sexual assault allegations, The Biden family’s dealings with the Ukraine and China, are only a few of the problems Biden will have to answer for, and let’s not forget the man who cannot put two coherent sentences together will eventually have to debate President Trump, and you think Trump is toast? Biden will be burnt toast if he makes it that far.

You said “this fall donald (sic) will be lucky to escape beeing (sic) tarred and feathered” in my opinion Biden will be lucky not to be wearing an orange jump suit.

[Nigel Garvie]

33 minutes ago, sprq said:

Idiotic American presidential election system. Electing a national leader state by state is totally illogical, especially given the electoral college aspect. Name me another major nation that elects its leader this way instead of simply counting the total nationwide votes, which is the ONLY fair way to do it. Look to France for how to do it: a first round with multiple candidates, then a second round two weeks later with a run-off between the top two, both rounds counted nationally.

The state by state method of voting is of course un-democratic. HRC was 3 million votes ahead in 2016. The people who wrote the US constitution had many great ideas, but the problem - repeated in the senate - is that they had to give individual states to much power. So a one horse state in the mid west gets as many senators as California - absurd. 

The obvious other "Major nation" that abuses its voters in the same way is the UK. The first past the post system has quite a few times lead to the party winning power having millions less votes. I think if Trump loses Florida he will be toast. Time to call a friend in Moscow?

[spidermike007]

Trump was knocked out in the first round by Covid. A TKO on impact. Gone, baby gone. Get ready to say President Joe. He will make a far better president. Think of how refreshing it will be to actually have a president capable of negotiation. And one who is willing to embrace our allies. And one who does not tweet like a 13 year old. And one who does not have such a bizarre relationship with "truth". And one who is willing to hire competent people, and not throw them under the bus the first time they disagree with him. One who has self esteem, and is comfortable within his own skin. Big changes. 

[bodga]

4 hours ago, webfact said:

didn't even bother to vote in the 2016 presidential election.

Says  it  all.

[Isaan sailor]

If Joe Biden could answer a hardball question in one or two coherent sentences—he’d stand a chance in the November election.  It makes you wonder about the DNC strategy.  What were they thinking with Joe Biden?

[GSFISM]

2 hours ago, Tug said:

Just wait till the second wave hits this fall donald will be lucky to escape beeing tarred and feathered imo and that’s just the virus there’s still all the issues they are desperately trying to distract everyone from imo trumps toast

There is no way around a second wave. It's going to happen. Severity remains to be seen. If things are locked down again then there will be a third wave. Wave after wave until a proven reliably vaccine is available in combination will built up immunities. Not everyone will respond equally to a vaccine. 

[hlj]

If Trump does not keep his promises he made when elected Florida will no way vote for him again. He again needs to keep his promises he made or his home state Florida now, will vote the other way. I have heard this from many Florida voters.

[CaptRon2]

1 hour ago, spidermike007 said:

Trump was knocked out in the first round by Covid. A TKO on impact. Gone, baby gone. Get ready to say President Joe. He will make a far better president. Think of how refreshing it will be to actually have a president capable of negotiation. And one who is willing to embrace our allies. And one who does not tweet like a 13 year old. And one who does not have such a bizarre relationship with "truth". And one who is willing to hire competent people, and not throw them under the bus the first time they disagree with him. One who has self esteem, and is comfortable within his own skin. Big changes. 

Your post was very entertaining and made great reading, my only suggestions to improve it so it can be taken in proper context is your first sentence should have been once upon a time, and your closing sentence should have been they lived happily ever after.

You have a great imagination and I wish you well!

[Magenta408]

Trumps handed over the reins to Kushner who proceeded with Trump's full support to destroy economies and created 30 MILLION people to seek unemployment insurance. The rest are in food lines or starving. This is the man they want to re-elect?

[spidermike007]

1 hour ago, GSFISM said:

There is no way around a second wave. It's going to happen. Severity remains to be seen. If things are locked down again then there will be a third wave. Wave after wave until a proven reliably vaccine is available in combination will built up immunities. Not everyone will respond equally to a vaccine. 

Many experts are saying how incredibly dangerous a lockdown is, and the detrimental effects it has on the immune system. Herd immunity may have resulted in more deaths. But, at least the economic devastation would be far less and this thing would have an end date. 

[Tug]

2 hours ago, CaptRon2 said:

Please tell us what issues the Republican Party is trying to distract from so we can have an actual discussion addressing them, and of course offer our factual rebuttals to your points. 

In my opinion the The Durham Report, Bidens sexual assault allegations, The Biden family’s dealings with the Ukraine and China, are only a few of the problems Biden will have to answer for, and let’s not forget the man who cannot put two coherent sentences together will eventually have to debate President Trump, and you think Trump is toast? Biden will be burnt toast if he makes it that far.

You said “this fall donald (sic) will be lucky to escape beeing (sic) tarred and feathered” in my opinion Biden will be lucky not to be wearing an orange jump suit.

Sure health care women’s rights to reproductive control 2 ond amendment immigration the environmental issues the 1 amendment failure to protect our constitution failure to protect our elections from foreign interference that’s just a start not to mention the worst unemployment since the Great Depression how many dead now probably 70,000 by morning because donald lacked the courage to tackle carona head on there’s a few issues for ya

[heybruce]

Florida's tourist economy was floored by the pandemic, and the millions of newly unemployed were then kicked while down by the intentionally difficult unemployment registration system which was completely overwhelmed by the numbers applying.  The minority who managed to get registered were rewarded with the cheapest, shortest duration unemployment compensation in the country.

 

Republican Governor DeSantos is being blamed for his slow reaction to this, and former  Republican Governor Scott, now Republican Senator Scott, for implementing the unemployment system designed to punish people for being unemployed.  Republicans have no way to dodge blame for the mess in Florida, which will only get worse when an accurate count of Covid 19 deaths and the conditions in Florida retirement and assisted living facilities become known.

[Isaan sailor]

4 hours ago, sprq said:

Idiotic American presidential election system. Electing a national leader state by state is totally illogical....

Either you hail from a different country, or you failed your high school civics class.  The United States of America is a republic—not a democracy.  This is plain as day when you read the US Constitution.

[sawadee1947]

4 hours ago, sprq said:

Idiotic American presidential election system. Electing a national leader state by state is totally illogical, especially given the electoral college aspect. Name me another major nation that elects its leader this way instead of simply counting the total nationwide votes, which is the ONLY fair way to do it. Look to France for how to do it: a first round with multiple candidates, then a second round two weeks later with a run-off between the top two, both rounds counted nationally.

That described way is fair? 5555

[Chomper Higgot]

If you can't stop the disease killing people in Florida, stop Florida's Medical Examiner reporting the deaths:

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/florida-officials-stop-publishing-coronavirus-death-toll-data-2020-4

[Baerboxer]

9 hours ago, Shocked said:

Ruters BS Liberal Fake News. Give us a break. Trump 2020 LANDSLIDE. 

 

Expect much more BS as Reuters campaign on behalf of the Democrat candidate.

 

Now, what was this nice flight attendant have expected a Democrat President to do differently? Pay her wages, and safeguard her job, and charge the American tax payer?

[Baerboxer]

6 hours ago, sprq said:

Idiotic American presidential election system. Electing a national leader state by state is totally illogical, especially given the electoral college aspect. Name me another major nation that elects its leader this way instead of simply counting the total nationwide votes, which is the ONLY fair way to do it. Look to France for how to do it: a first round with multiple candidates, then a second round two weeks later with a run-off between the top two, both rounds counted nationally.

 

Read the history of the USA, it's constitution, it's member state's sovereignty, and also about the tyranny of the majority.

 

Then you might understand why the combined intellectual might of the USA's founding fathers seems somewhat higher than a TVF poster's!

[puipuitom]

7 hours ago, sprq said:

Idiotic American presidential election system. Electing a national leader state by state is totally illogical, especially given the electoral college aspect. Name me another major nation that elects its leader this way instead of simply counting the total nationwide votes, which is the ONLY fair way to do it. Look to France for how to do it: a first round with multiple candidates, then a second round two weeks later with a run-off between the top two, both rounds counted nationally.

It's a system from around 1780... never learnt something new...

[CaptRon2]

4 hours ago, Tug said:

Sure health care women’s rights to reproductive control 2 ond amendment immigration the environmental issues the 1 amendment failure to protect our constitution failure to protect our elections from foreign interference that’s just a start not to mention the worst unemployment since the Great Depression how many dead now probably 70,000 by morning because donald lacked the courage to tackle carona head on there’s a few issues for ya

The fact that you think President Trump needs to deflect or distract anything to divert attention from your list of concerns is pretty amusing. Those are all losing items for the out of touch Democrats, and I think the majority of Americans will side with President Trump on most of them.

as far as you placing any blame on President Trump for this virus shows that your hate has replaced any logic you may have once possessed. The virus, is on China, a d any delay in reacting is on the misinformation from China and the WHO. President Trump’s travel ban on the Chinese was a lifesaver and one month after he implemented it Pelosi was in San Francisco’s Chinatown telling people to come on down and join the party. Biden called Trump a racist for implementing it. I think the Democrats delaying the stimulus package and then filling it with pork will come out to haunt them.

All measurements of unemployment where at historically low levels before the Virus, and it is the Democrats who are now prolonging the lockdowns and keeping people from their sources of employment. President Trump will have a field day discussing those points and only a fool or a traitor would be laying the unemployment on President Trump instead of China.

So it is my opinion, President Trump would love to be talking about those issues, while adding the illegal immigration problem along with the associated crime, and the continuing efforts of the Democrats to confiscate our guns. 

President Trump is not hiding from or distracting from anything, especially the list you provided 

[Isaan sailor]

23 minutes ago, puipuitom said:

It's a system from around 1780... never learnt something new...

If liberals want to change the republic—fine, have at it.  You’ll need to pass a Constitutional Amendment.  And that means a majority of States must agree.  Ever since Hillary lost in 2016, liberals have trashed the US Constitution.

[Nigel Garvie]

1 hour ago, Isaan sailor said:

If liberals want to change the republic—fine, have at it.  You’ll need to pass a Constitutional Amendment.  And that means a majority of States must agree.  Ever since Hillary lost in 2016, liberals have trashed the US Constitution.

The oddest post I've read for a long time, is there a typing error. If you lose you can't do anything about the constitution. It has been trashed and abused for 4 years, and everyone capable of logical thought knows who did it, the only person who can, the man/woman in power.

[Nigel Garvie]

4 hours ago, Isaan sailor said:

Either you hail from a different country, or you failed your high school civics class.  The United States of America is a republic—not a democracy.  This is plain as day when you read the US Constitution.

No it is a republic AND a democracy, they are not mutually exclusive. Look round the world and you will find many republics that have democratic elections. The main alternative to a republic is a kingdom, I thought you lot were rather pleased to have escaped from being part of a kingdom. Presumably you reject the idea of US citizens describing their country as "The world's greatest democracy". Would you prefer the "worlds greatest undemocratic republic".

 

What is being discussed here is HOW democratic,  different systems actually are. Corruption - a feature of many elections is another matter.

[Brigand]

The American electoral college system does have it's merits as well as some flaws. The founders had to give some power to individual states or it wouldn't have flied for so long. The electoral college system basically means that all politicians have to engage everyone from everywhere as otherwise it would be 4 states deciding the outcome every time and the other 46 would just look on helplessly and that would be a recipe for trouble/discontent and the forefathers had the sense to see that. Yes, it could be tweaked to more reflect the modern realities but the essential idea should stay as it makes politicians work for every vote from everywhere and forces a need to address the issues of every state.

[candide]

Obviously, Trump's distraction tactics are not working.