Sweden - is the rest of the world dumb, blind or worse ?

[scubascuba3]

18 minutes ago, Logosone said:

 

 

Clearly Japan's low figures are a result of not testing. Just like in Thailand. Just like in Nigeria. Just like in Vietnam.

Three possible reasons why Japan has done ok, Obesity in Japan is 3%, I think in UK\US it's 30%+.

They had a less virulent strain. Tracking cases was good. Their hospitals weren't overflowing with Covid patients so can't be explained by just the low level of testing, similar to Thailand

Edited May 26, 2020 by scubascuba3

[mikebike]

42 minutes ago, Logosone said:

It's not done, doctors don't do it, especially not in Thailand, because autopsies are cumbersome, expensive and those doing it run the risk of contracting Covid 19 if the patient is suspected of Covid 19. Obviously doctors are not keen on doing this at all. 

 

It's only done in very exceptional cases even in medically advanced countries.

You do not need to do an autopsy to test a body for covid.

[yuyiinthesky]

3 minutes ago, mikebike said:

You do not need to do an autopsy to test a body for covid.

You need an autopsy to determine the real cause of death.

[jayboy]

22 minutes ago, scubascuba3 said:

Three possible reasons why Japan has done ok, Obesity in Japan is 3%, I think in UK\US it's 30%+.

They had a less virulent strain. Tracking cases was good. Their hospitals weren't overflowing with Covid patients so can't be explained by just the low level of testing, similar to Thailand

Better prepared also given history of other epidemics like SARS. Mask wearing culture too.

 

Having said that and agreeing with all the good you points you make, there remains a question why some countries have done so much better than others.

[Logosone]

31 minutes ago, scubascuba3 said:

Three possible reasons why Japan has done ok, Obesity in Japan is 3%, I think in UK\US it's 30%+.

They had a less virulent strain. Tracking cases was good. Their hospitals weren't overflowing with Covid patients so can't be explained by just the low level of testing, similar to Thailand

 

Japan has one of the oldest populations in the world.

 

If this virus was so horrifically dangerous and killed off mostly the elderly a death toll of 800 in a country of 127 million is just not possible.

 

It is merely the result of Japan not testing. There is no need to look at magic, bowing, obesity, hot weather, humid weather, virulent strains, tracking...

 

It's simply a case of a country not reporting, not investigating and not finding.

 

Just like Thailand. Just like Nigeria. Just like Vietnam.

[Logosone]

16 minutes ago, mikebike said:

You do not need to do an autopsy to test a body for covid.

That's not what I meant.

 

As was pointed out above, you have to do an autopsy to discover the actual cause of death. 

 

As you know, even if you are tested for Covid 19 and die, it does not necessarily mean that you died of Covid 19.

 

Though statistics would now suggest that.

[scubascuba3]

15 minutes ago, jayboy said:

there remains a question why some countries have done so much better than others.

Yes it's a mystery, for example Germany, New Zealand, Australia controlled the virus and didn't have mask wearing vs asian countries

[Bkk Brian]

7 minutes ago, scubascuba3 said:

Yes it's a mystery, for example Germany, New Zealand, Australia controlled the virus and didn't have mask wearing vs asian countries

I'm convinced the hot weather has a part to play although exceptions to this rule exist

[Logosone]

MERS, a coronavirus, thrived in Saudi Arabia, where it's very hot.

[Logosone]

39 minutes ago, scubascuba3 said:

Yes it's a mystery, for example Germany, New Zealand, Australia controlled the virus and didn't have mask wearing vs asian countries

Also Norway doesn't have mask wearing I believe.

[metisdead]

A post using a video from another unapproved YouTube source has been removed:

 

18) Social Media content is not to be used as  source material unless it is from a recognized or approved news media source,  the source of any such material (Twitter, Facebook, YouTube  etc.) should always be shown.

[chessman]

1 hour ago, PingRoundTheWorld said:

What makes you think infection levels in NY are higher than Tokyo? Why would they be? Population density in Tokyo is high, and it literally has the all of busiest train stations in the world. Commuter trains were packed full right up until late March*. The trains never stopped running, there was no lockdown at any point, and other than voluntary action like shortening business hours and closing some businesses like bars and department stores there was very little done to curb spread. It's completely illogical to think that Tokyo somehow miraculously managed to avoid the explosive spread that similar cities suffered.

 

* If you've ever experienced commuter trains in Tokyo you'd know people are packed like sardines and your face is centimeters away from other riders. Ideal conditions for a virus to spread quickly and utterly impossible that it didn't happen.

I lived in Japan for many years and am well aware of those commuter trains. I’ve also visited Japan in the last few years and the biggest change I noticed was the incredible numbers of Chinese tourists. Shrines in Kyoto that 10 years ago would have been almost empty felt a bit like those trains you spoke about.

but forget about COVID for a moment, cities and countries keep records of year-on-year general mortality. You can compare how many people died in each month of 2019 (or an average of previous years) and compare with each month of 2020 (Statisticians will eventually use this data to do studies on the real death toll of Covid 19). Where we have this data we see incredible spikes in the numbers of deaths in March and April, higher even than the official Covid totals. New York has such a spike. I haven’t seen figures for Tokyo or Japan so presumably they are less public with this data, but it is certain that the government are keeping track.
 

So if you think Tokyo has herd immunity already you are saying either that

a) they have been able to hide all these extra deaths... the governments and the agencies that collect this data, the hospitals and the funeral parlours all have been water tight, no news of this leaked out. That the state of emergency that has just been lifted in Japan was done by a government that knew that many more people were dying. 

b) that something in Japan (health of citizens, lack of obesity) means that the COVID IFR is really really low there, a fraction of what it is in European countries... so almost everyone got it but hardly anyone died or even got that sick.

 

so which is it?
 

I would go for c) - for some reason the virus never spread in the same way there and they kept the numbers low. I think this is strange and I don’t understand it (see my comments about the numbers of Chinese Tourists above) but I think it is more likely than scenarios A and B.

 

unless anyone can think of another scenario?

 

 

 

[Throatwobbler]

42 minutes ago, Logosone said:

MERS, a coronavirus, thrived in Saudi Arabia, where it's very hot.

MERS is a corona virus and so is Covid. They are not the same virus though so they do not automatically have the same traits.

Edited May 26, 2020 by Throatwobbler

[PingRoundTheWorld]

42 minutes ago, Logosone said:

MERS, a coronavirus, thrived in Saudi Arabia, where it's very hot.

MERS was mainly passed from camels to humans, and in very close contact in hospitals and homes. There was no mass spread outdoors so it really does not dispel the heat theory.

[PingRoundTheWorld]

21 minutes ago, chessman said:

So if you think Tokyo has herd immunity already you are saying either that

a) they have been able to hide all these extra deaths... the governments and the agencies that collect this data, the hospitals and the funeral parlours all have been water tight, no news of this leaked out. That the state of emergency that has just been lifted in Japan was done by a government that knew that many more people were dying. 

b) that something in Japan (health of citizens, lack of obesity) means that the COVID IFR is really really low there, a fraction of what it is in European countries... so almost everyone got it but hardly anyone died or even got that sick.

 

so which is it?

B. IMO the IFR in Japan is drastically lower than western countries because of the low obesity rate, healthy population, and lack of rapid spread in nursing homes like happened in the west. I don't think almost everyone got it - more like 20-30% of working-age population - according to some models that is enough to provide herd immunity. You don't need 80% or even 60% as those figures assume unrealistic scenarios like a totally homogeneous society and zero social distancing - change these factors a bit and the herd immunity threshold drops drastically.

 

36 minutes ago, chessman said:

I would go for c) - for some reason the virus never spread in the same way there and they kept the numbers low. I think this is strange and I don’t understand it (see my comments about the numbers of Chinese Tourists above) but I think it is more likely than scenarios A and B.

The reason for the low official numbers is lack of testing up to and during the peak. Japan had one of the lowest testing rate and the grand majority of sick were refused testing until April. Japan's testing rate is even lower than Thailand's...

[Logosone]

8 minutes ago, PingRoundTheWorld said:

The reason for the low official numbers is lack of testing up to and during the peak. Japan had one of the lowest testing rate and the grand majority of sick were refused testing until April. Japan's testing rate is even lower than Thailand's...

BINGO!

 

 

[Bkk Brian]

Interesting report from Annika Linde epidemiologist, she oversaw Sweden’s response to swine flu and Sars as state epidemiologist from 2005 to 2013.

 

She was initially fully onboard with Anders Tegnell model but has since changed her mind. Linde said Tegnell was wrong to place the blame for the high rate of infection in Swedish elderly care homes on the local authorities and the private companies who run them.

 

“I think that we needed more time for preparedness. If we had shut down very early ... we would have been able, during that time, to make sure that we had what was necessary to protect the vulnerable,” 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/24/sweden-wrong-not-to-shut-down-says-former-state-epidemiologist

 

 

[scubascuba3]

As we are in a global economy countries that didn't lockdown are still getting damaged economically. Big lesson in a repeat scenario is countries have to agree not to lockdown, they couldn't afford to anyway

[chessman]

47 minutes ago, PingRoundTheWorld said:

The reason for the low official numbers is lack of testing up to and during the peak. Japan had one of the lowest testing rate and the grand majority of sick were refused testing until April. Japan's testing rate is even lower than Thailand's...

I don’t mention the official numbers. I completely ignore them.
 

But the Tokyo urban area is around 40 million people. If they had a similar rate of infection as New York that would show up in comparative year-to-year mortality data. Lots of extra people would be dying. If the government were covering those deaths up it would be an act of political suicide.

[chessman]

55 minutes ago, PingRoundTheWorld said:

IMO the IFR in Japan is drastically lower than western countries because of the low obesity rate, healthy population, and lack of rapid spread in nursing homes like happened in the west. I don't think almost everyone got it - more like 20-30% of working-age population - according to some models that is enough to provide herd immunity. You don't need 80% or even 60% as those figures assume unrealistic scenarios like a totally homogeneous society and zero social distancing - change these factors a bit and the herd immunity threshold drops drastically.

This is such a stretch. Even if the IFR were half that of New York, that would be really notable. But to make this work, it really has to be much much lower than half. 

[PingRoundTheWorld]

9 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

“I think that we needed more time for preparedness. If we had shut down very early ... we would have been able, during that time, to make sure that we had what was necessary to protect the vulnerable,”

Hindsight is 20/20.

 

8 hours ago, chessman said:

This is such a stretch. Even if the IFR were half that of New York, that would be really notable. But to make this work, it really has to be much much lower than half. 

Then what's your explanation for how Tokyo magically avoided the spread? There is no logical explanation. Occam's Razor...

[farang51]

7 minutes ago, PingRoundTheWorld said:

Hindsight is 20/20.

Hindsight? Maybe for the Swedes; almost every other country could see the problem - "almost" refers to Boris Johnson and Donald Trump that needed to see the big numbers before they understood what exponential means. Brazil's Bolsaro still doesn't understand.

 

Quote

Then what's your explanation for how Tokyo magically avoided the spread? There is no logical explanation. Occam's Razor...

 

Occam's razor would indicate that the virus did not spread in Japan rather than indicating the miracle that Japanese people get infected yet somehow do not die from the virus.

 

No, I cannot explain the few deaths in Japan and some other countries; but rather than suspecting miracles, I will wait for the scientists to find a reason.

[chessman]

24 minutes ago, PingRoundTheWorld said:

Then what's your explanation for how Tokyo magically avoided the spread? There is no logical explanation. Occam's Razor...

I would agree with Farang51, that Occam’s Razor would suggest that Tokyo does not have the same levels of infection as New York.

why has Tokyo avoided the spread?
 

one possible avenue of inquiry:

 

Without doubting for a moment that the virus came from China, it also seems true that a lot of the worst cases and international spread seems to be linked to Northern Italy. If this was the case it would explain a lot about why Europe (with many more links to this region) is so much more badly affected than Asia. 

note, I don’t have any certainty that this is the case but I still find it more likely than Tokyo reaching herd immunity levels of infection without anyone noticing.

 

 

 

 

[Crazy Alex]

On 5/16/2020 at 12:40 AM, CGW said:

Everybody is free to think what they like about the ongoing agenda, but even the most naive can see that the "Covid" situation has been hijacked and a whole new agenda is now in place.

Welcome to social engineering in 2020, we have no protection from "government" or specifically those who are dictating how "governments" respond as our only form of "protection" - the "Media" is also owned by the same people who are directing the new agenda and bring in the "New World Order" as the governor of Chicago recently stated, some are more than happy to serve the NWO and bring in their policies.

Great post. I would add that even the term "social distancing" is a politicization of the virus. It's not social distancing. It's PHYSICAL distancing. It's even measured in feet.

 

We have wonderful inventions that help people maintain close social ties- the telephone, internet, email, etc.

 

Why can't we just call things what they are?

[PingRoundTheWorld]

38 minutes ago, farang51 said:

Hindsight? Maybe for the Swedes; almost every other country could see the problem

The problem in this context is not the virus - the problem is the poor precautions in place to protect the elderly (in nursing homes) - this isn't unique to Sweden, it happened in many countries. Sweden did right to allow it's population to remain free, but could've done better to protect the elderly. Others like New York did wrong in locking up their citizens, but ALSO did wrong by failing to protect the elderly. In particular New York has failed miserably in this department.

 

13 minutes ago, chessman said:

Without doubting for a moment that the virus came from China, it also seems true that a lot of the worst cases and international spread seems to be linked to Northern Italy. If this was the case it would explain a lot about why Europe (with many more links to this region) is so much more badly affected than Asia. 

This entire idea that there's somehow a more aggressive strain originating in Italy is Chinese propaganda and almost certainly false. A more logical explanation is that China simply tried to cover up the real scale of the problem by lying about the numbers, while western countries did not. And even if there really was a magical new strain originating in Europe - how would you explain it never arriving to Japan? Borders were completely open until late March, no restrictions at all.

[Logosone]

12 minutes ago, PingRoundTheWorld said:

 

This entire idea that there's somehow a more aggressive strain originating in Italy is Chinese propaganda and almost certainly false. A more logical explanation is that China simply tried to cover up the real scale of the problem by lying about the numbers, while western countries did not. And even if there really was a magical new strain originating in Europe - how would you explain it never arriving to Japan? Borders were completely open until late March, no restrictions at all.

 

BINGO!!!

 

Again he gets it right. Someone gives this guy a star!

[chessman]

30 minutes ago, PingRoundTheWorld said:

This entire idea that there's somehow a more aggressive strain originating in Italy is Chinese propaganda and almost certainly false. A more logical explanation is that China simply tried to cover up the real scale of the problem by lying about the numbers, while western countries did not. And even if there really was a magical new strain originating in Europe - how would you explain it never arriving to Japan? Borders were completely open until late March, no restrictions at all.

Nowhere did I say I thought there was a more aggressive strain.
 

It arrived in Japan, of course It has. A lot of my Japanese friends have been working from home. There was a national state of emergency. Throw out the official number of cases, look at the deaths. Could they be underestimating deaths by a few thousands. Sure. Many countries are.

But multiple tens of thousands? Hundreds of thousands? Really?

[chessman]

1 hour ago, Crazy Alex said:

PHYSICAL distancing

 

[OZinPattaya]

The answer is that people are simply not thinking rationally about this pandemic. In America it is far more important to blame a Republican president for a pandemic than it is to look at this pandemic head-on and deal with it in any practical or medical sense. This is the anti-Trump pandemic. If feeds into the cult of personality where Trump is concerned.

[Bkk Brian]

8 hours ago, PingRoundTheWorld said:

Hindsight is 20/20.

Yep, its also learning from experience and being honest enough to change course if you feel you were wrong.