Sweden - is the rest of the world dumb, blind or worse ?

[geriatrickid]

11 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Then why did you say

 

We were discussing Quarter 1.

 

From your own link: Q1 refers to Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar)

 

From Jan to Feb is not 3 months, gerikid.

I did not  use the rolling 3 month data as Q1 data. Go back and read my original post. I showed the Q1 data. The use of the rolling data was to refute your claim that the UK was in economic collapse.

 

You keep insisting that the downturn in the GDP is due to lockdown. Aside from the fact that there was no lockdown, the data was consistent with the ongoing trend and had actually improved. Q4 2019  had been flat. The trend from December 2019 through February was a slight improvement. Your argument was that there was a negative result. It is obvious that you are confusing the economic damage caused by Covid 19 in general with the direct impact of the lockdown. There was no lockdown in the UK until the end of March. 

 

Everytime you get caught, you come up with another excuse.

Edited June 4, 2020 by geriatrickid

[Logosone]

12 minutes ago, geriatrickid said:

The use of the rolling data was to refute your claim that the UK was in economic collapse.

 

You keep insisting that the downturn in the GDP is due to lockdown. Aside from the fact that there was no lockdown, the data was consistent with the ongoing trend and had actually improved. There was no lockdown in the UK until the end of March. 

 

 

You may want to tell the Financial Times of your theory, who btw wrote:

 

"The UK economy shrank at the fastest monthly pace on record in March as the coronavirus lockdown triggered a crash in activity and demand."

 

UK gross domestic product fell 5.8 per cent in March compared with the previous month, the largest drop since the monthly series began in 1997, according to first estimates by the Office for National Statistics. In the first quarter, UK GDP fell 2 per cent compared with the previous quarter, its largest drop since the financial crisis.

Chancellor Rishi Sunak acknowledged “it is now very likely that the UK is facing a significant recession at the moment and this year”.

 

The contraction was driven by a 6.2 per cent monthly decline in March and by a sharp fall in travel, accommodation and air transport, whose output nearly halved in March.

 

“The lockdown was only in place for seven working days in the first three months of the year, but it was still enough to bring about the biggest quarterly economic contraction since the peak of the financial crisis and the weakest single-month change on record,” said James Smith, research director at the Resolution Foundation, a think-tank. “With the country in full or partial lockdown well into the second half of the year, the grim economic milestones hit in the latest data will be shattered next time around,” he warned.

 

https://www.ft.com/content/64ec173c-d397-43b7-a5f9-8b511a0f5204

 

So yes, the UK is in very serious economic difficulties.

 

Yes, this was caused by lockdown. Of course you just keep digging. But you can't on the one hand say the lockdown was put in place on 23 March and in the same breath "there was no lockdown". As the above British author makes clear a mere 7 days of lockdown was enough to have devastating effect on the UK economy. The coming months will be even worse for the UK.

 

Even if Sweden were to contract by 7%, the UK is forecast to contract by 14%.

 

So your whole argument that lockdown did not cause worse economic consequences than Sweden's lack of mandatory lockdown is frankly just false.

 

Stop digging. You're just making it worse.

[transam]

Interesting....

 

https://news.yahoo.com/architect-swedens-no-lockdown-plan-132103531.html

[pineapple01]

Who cares, their Volvo Estates were superb

[Logosone]

The SAAB 9000 was also a great car.

[utalkin2me]

This is getting silly. It is "the sky is not blue", the "earth is not round" territory. 

 

UK's economy has fared worse than Sweden's so far. We will wait and see how that pans out long term, but the UK is being affected more as of now. 

 

When you argue points this ridiculous, it makes it so much clearer that you have NO point. People obsess on ridiculous facets of arguments when their argument is failing. That is what is going on here. 

[Bender Rodriguez]

13 hours ago, oldhippy said:

The designer of the Swedish anti corona model has just gone on Swedish radio to admit his ideas were wrong, and that too many Swedish people have died.

Since we now know the answer to the question of the OP, I suggest we close this thread.

 

Source: Belgian public TV:  https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2020/06/03/zweedse-marc-van-ranst-maakt-een-bocht-vandaag-zou-onze-aanpak/

 

 

 

nice CHERRY picking

 

the news was about PROTECTING the seniors in the retirement homes

 

that is what they should have done

 

not the sheeple lockdown and destruction of the economy

 

Old, sick people die with chronic diseases, every day, before & after this fake pandemic

 

Belgium did she great, right ... almost 10.000 people dead

 

most.... old, sick people with chronic diseases...

 

Maar in de realiteit zijn het de ouderen in de woonzorgcentra die het slachtoffer zijn geworden van het coronavirus. Bijna de helft van de 4.400 Zweden die aan het virus zijn overleden, waren bejaarden.

 

Ik spreek toevallig ook NEDERLANDS...

 

 

so here you see, more sheeple copy paste panic spreaders at work...

 

Edited June 4, 2020 by Bender Rodriguez

[Logosone]

32 minutes ago, utalkin2me said:

This is getting silly. It is "the sky is not blue", the "earth is not round" territory. 

 

UK's economy has fared worse than Sweden's so far. We will wait and see how that pans out long term, but the UK is being affected more as of now. 

 

When you argue points this ridiculous, it makes it so much clearer that you have NO point. People obsess on ridiculous facets of arguments when their argument is failing. That is what is going on here. 

I particularly liked his Harlem Shuffle "There was no lockdown" "The lockdown was put in only on 23 March", "How can it be due to lockdown".... so funny. 

 

But then this is the same guy who argued the world will end because there's no immunity to the virus.

 

Wrong yet again.

 

 

[Bkk Brian]

59 minutes ago, Bender Rodriguez said:

nice CHERRY picking

 

the news was about PROTECTING the seniors in the retirement homes

 

that is what they should have done

 

not the sheeple lockdown and destruction of the economy

 

Old, sick people die with chronic diseases, every day, before & after this fake pandemic

 

Belgium did she great, right ... almost 10.000 people dead

 

most.... old, sick people with chronic diseases...

 

Maar in de realiteit zijn het de ouderen in de woonzorgcentra die het slachtoffer zijn geworden van het coronavirus. Bijna de helft van de 4.400 Zweden die aan het virus zijn overleden, waren bejaarden.

 

Ik spreek toevallig ook NEDERLANDS...

 

 

so here you see, more sheeple copy paste panic spreaders at work...

 

The news was more than just about protecting seniors. He is suggesting quite rightly that until the outcomes of different measures around the world are known then nobody will find out which have been correct.

 

Tegnell has not yet found an answer to what measures Sweden should have taken. "All other countries have introduced many things at the same time, so you have the problem that you don't know which measure had the best effect. Maybe we will find out now that the rules are being unloaded one by one."

[nauseus]

5 hours ago, Logosone said:

Not at all. It says right there:

 

"In the first quarter, UK GDP fell 2 per cent compared with the previous quarter, its largest drop since the financial crisis."

 

https://www.ft.com/content/64ec173c-d397-43b7-a5f9-8b511a0f5204

 

Plus of course gerikid was claiming you can't count the first quarter (ie March) at all. Yet the FT makes clear that already in March the UK GDP fell by 5.8 per cent, with much worse to come. All due to lockdown.

There you go again.

[talahtnut]

Buried inside the Daily Telegraph on page

seven, running across a third of a page or

less, with a very accurate subheading

stating in clear black and white:

“Professor admits radical Scandinavian

policy worked as well as British policy

of shutting down.” 

The evidence from the two countries’

differing approaches has left the professor

with little escape route. UK (full lockdown/

businesses shut down): 579 Covid-19 deaths

per million of population. Sweden (softer restrictions/businesses kept open):

442 deaths per million.

The results appear similar to ordinary Flu.

 

[yuyiinthesky]

2 hours ago, Logosone said:

I particularly liked his Harlem Shuffle "There was no lockdown" "The lockdown was put in only on 23 March", "How can it be due to lockdown".... so funny. 

 

But then this is the same guy who argued the world will end because there's no immunity to the virus.

 

Wrong yet again.

 

Yeah, he mixes facts willy nilly, creating half truths. The point is probably just enjoying bickering. I stopped responding to him a while ago, it’s just a waste of time. There are enough others here which are able to listen and to raise interesting points, giving me food for thought.

[Puccini]

Coronavirus: Sweden's Tegnell admits too many died

03 June 2020

 

 

Sweden's controversial decision not to impose a strict lockdown in response to the Covid-19 pandemic led to too many deaths, the man behind the policy, Anders Tegnell, has acknowledged.

Sweden has seen a far higher mortality rate than its nearest neighbours and its nationals are being barred from crossing their borders.

Dr Tegnell told Swedish radio more should have been done early on.

 

Read more: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52903717

[Puccini]

Sorry about the weird text format of my above post but the mobile Opera browser does not allow me to change text size in this forum.

[yuyiinthesky]

6 hours ago, Puccini said:

Coronavirus: Sweden's Tegnell admits too many died

03 June 2020

 

 

Sweden's controversial decision not to impose a strict lockdown in response to the Covid-19 pandemic led to too many deaths, the man behind the policy, Anders Tegnell, has acknowledged.

Sweden has seen a far higher mortality rate than its nearest neighbours and its nationals are being barred from crossing their borders.

Dr Tegnell told Swedish radio more should have been done early on.

 

Read more: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52903717

This was discussed two pages above, also including the parts missing in the BBC report. Anders Tegnell is obviously one of the few who is able to review and learn. 

[Scott]

Numerous off-topic, troll posts and replies removed.  This thread is about the Swedish model in dealing with the virus.   Please stay on topic.

 

[Bkk Brian]

Swedens large spike in daily cases on the 3rd June, 2,414 new, with yesterdays also high at 1,080. More testing perhaps? Combined with a larger spread occurring?

Edited June 5, 2020 by Bkk Brian

[Bkk Brian]

"You look at everyone else's curve, it is typical. You go up, you peak, then you go down on the other side. But in Sweden you have a plateau at a pretty high level," said Björn Olsen, a professor of infectious medicine at Uppsala University and one of Sweden's leading researchers of pandemics, who has been sharply critical of the government's response.

"I know that many countries looked at Sweden as a good example of an open society. We had a relatively low number of cases. And then it started to skyrocket. We understood absolutely nothing," he said.

Olsen said the Swedish approach had been spurred by a mistaken belief that covid-19 behaved like the seasonal flu, which is extremely fast-spreading and contagious. Instead, he said, it appears to concentrate in certain spots and wreak deep devastation.

 

https://www.thelocal.se/20200528/italian-ambassador-criticises-sweden

[mommysboy]

I don't understand why a comparison is made between the UK and Sweden- apples and pears.  UK had very little choice but to go in to lockdown.  Initially, UK made the same choice as Sweden, but it became clear that hospitals were going to be overwhelmed.  In fact, UK tried successive versions of soft lockdowns before having to go in to a harder version, which nevertheless was still not as stringent as Spain, France, etc.  Moreover, UK has relaxed that lockdown rather quickly, compared to many others.  In fact, we now know that the most effective way of stopping the spread of the virus is to go in to lockdown very early, as with Thailand.  To see what happens if a country doesn't go in to lockdown we need only look at what is happening in Brazil.  From the point of total eradication, we might conclude that both the UK and Sweden got it very wrong!

 

Covid 19 is not like the flu in one key area: flu is essentially self limiting, whereas a small minority of covid19 sufferers experience the severest form of the disease, which can have catastrophic consequences.  Just why this happens was not known when the outbreak happened, and is largely still a mystery, and there is no cure.  

[cmarshall]

This is a useful site that gives the Covid death per million stats, which are more informative than raw totals.  Every one of the countries in the box below is a disgrace since the vast majority of those deaths could have been avoided, if they had copied S. Korea, for example.  

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/

 

Countries that performed superbly:

 

Thailand   0.84

S. Korea    5.29

PROC        3.33

Taiwan      ??

Greece      16.9

 

 

 

[mommysboy]

Some countries are more h

2 hours ago, cmarshall said:

This is a useful site that gives the Covid death per million stats, which are more informative than raw totals.  Every one of the countries in the box below is a disgrace since the vast majority of those deaths could have been avoided, if they had copied S. Korea, for example.  

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/

 

Countries that performed superbly:

 

Thailand   0.84

S. Korea    5.29

PROC        3.33

Taiwan      ??

Greece      16.9

 

 

 

Some countries are more honest in their reporting than others.

 

A great number of countries relied on information supplied by WHO/China which proved to be inaccurate.

[Heppinger]

2 hours ago, cmarshall said:

Every one of the countries in the box below is a disgrace since the vast majority of those deaths could have been avoided, if they had copied S. Korea, for example.  

They would still be dead, the difference is the cause of death would be old age, heart disease, cancer or falling objects.

[chessman]

3 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

Some countries are more honest in their reporting than others.

 

A good example of this is Russia.

 

just in St. Petersburg, 1552 more people died (of all causes) in May 2020 than last year. Only 171 officially died of Covid. So it is likely that The real Russian death toll Is much higher.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/04/st-petersburg-death-tally-casts-doubt-on-russian-coronavirus-figures

 

[pineapple01]

Falling Objects sounds like Fun, Expand this please.

[Heppinger]

14 minutes ago, pineapple01 said:

Falling Objects sounds like Fun, Expand this please.

can the object be the person themselves?

[Bender Rodriguez]

5 hours ago, mommysboy said:

UK had very little choice but to go in to lockdown.

you mean because some dude made a fake prediction that 500.000 people would die and after 8 weeks, you see it is BOGUS

[cmarshall]

3 hours ago, mommysboy said:

Some countries are more h

Some countries are more honest in their reporting than others.

 

A great number of countries relied on information supplied by WHO/China which proved to be inaccurate.

There certainly are inaccuracies in the data.  For instance, the US has consistently and probably substantially under-reported both infections and deaths.  We know that testing has been inadequate and that confirmed Covid deaths are much lower than excess mortality rates, which must be due directly or indirectly to Covid.  In addtion, at least 14 states are known to be suppressing Covid data.

 

Nevertheless, the claimed low rates for the countries above that have been the most successful at mitigating the pandemic must be substantially true.  Thailand, which claims a death rate < 1 per million, does not have hospitals overflowing with very sick patients or else we would know about it.  Also, I haven't heard from any Thai who knows someone who has been infected.  So, the number of infections and deaths must be very low.  The same is true for S. Korea and the other diligent countries.

 

Nevertheless, people for whom the data clashes with their beliefs about how the performance of governments they support or disdain may choose to believe their own fantasies rather than the best data available.

[cmarshall]

3 hours ago, Heppinger said:

They would still be dead, the difference is the cause of death would be old age, heart disease, cancer or falling objects.

We know for sure that that is not true, because of studies of excess mortality.  For instance, here is such a study for New York City in the period of March 11 to May 2 which found:

 

During March 11–May 2, 2020, a total of 32,107 deaths were reported to DOHMH; of these deaths, 24,172 (95% confidence interval = 22,980–25,364) were found to be in excess of the seasonal expected baseline. Included in the 24,172 deaths were 13,831 (57%) laboratory-confirmed COVID-19–associated deaths and 5,048 (21%) probable COVID-19–associated deaths, leaving 5,293 (22%) excess deaths that were not identified as either laboratory-confirmed or probable COVID-19–associated deaths (Figure).

 

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6919e5.htm

 

You are, of course, fully entitled to believe whatever fantasy makes you feel comfortable.

[mommysboy]

5 hours ago, Bender Rodriguez said:

you mean because some dude made a fake prediction that 500.000 people would die and after 8 weeks, you see it is BOGUS

No, because hospitals in major cities, eg, London started experiencing a surge in Covid19 patients to the point that it was feared they would be overwhelmed.  To date, it is feared that there have been 50,000 excess deaths where Covid19 was a factor.  Had the UK not gone in to lockdown that number would undoubtedly be much higher. It's not just the UK too.  What do you think happened in USA, Spain, Italy, etc ?

 

 

Edited June 5, 2020 by mommysboy

[mommysboy]

3 hours ago, cmarshall said:

There certainly are inaccuracies in the data.  For instance, the US has consistently and probably substantially under-reported both infections and deaths.  We know that testing has been inadequate and that confirmed Covid deaths are much lower than excess mortality rates, which must be due directly or indirectly to Covid.  In addtion, at least 14 states are known to be suppressing Covid data.

 

Nevertheless, the claimed low rates for the countries above that have been the most successful at mitigating the pandemic must be substantially true.  Thailand, which claims a death rate < 1 per million, does not have hospitals overflowing with very sick patients or else we would know about it.  Also, I haven't heard from any Thai who knows someone who has been infected.  So, the number of infections and deaths must be very low.  The same is true for S. Korea and the other diligent countries.

 

Nevertheless, people for whom the data clashes with their beliefs about how the performance of governments they support or disdain may choose to believe their own fantasies rather than the best data available.

It is undoubtedly true that there have been very low rates in Thailand, Taiwan, Vietnam and a few other countries.  In these countries we can safely say they simply were wise to the dangers of such a virus. Taiwan in particular wasn't going to listen to China for a second.  I can only think that the major European countries took on board the Chinese figures, and wrongly reasoned that the pandemic could be handled in the same way as influenza.

 

My comment merely pointed out that whilst some countries sought to produce accurate figures, others didn't.  UK is at least making some pretence of accuracy, whilst I do not think the same can be said for significant others.