Germany's coronavirus reproduction rate jumps, indicating rising contagion

[webfact]

Germany's coronavirus reproduction rate jumps, indicating rising contagion

 

FILE PHOTO: German Chancellor Angela Merkel attends a joint news conference with Bavarian Prime Minister Markus Soeder and the Mayor of Hamburg Peter Tschentscher after a meeting with German federal states governors about measures on the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak, at the Chancellery in Berlin, Germany June 17, 2020. Markus Schreiber/Pool via REUTERS

 

FRANKFURT (Reuters) - Germany's coronavirus reproduction rate jumped to 2.88 on Sunday, up from 1.79 a day earlier, health authorities said, a rate showing infections are rising above the level needed to contain the disease over the longer term.

 

The rise brings with it the possibility of renewed restrictions on activity in Europe's largest economy - a blow to a country that so far had widely been seen as successful in curbing the coronavirus spread and keeping the death toll relatively low.

 

To keep the pandemic under control, Germany needs the reproduction rate to drop below one. The rate of 2.88, published by the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) for public health, means that out of 100 people who contract the virus, a further 288 people will get infected.

 

Chancellor Angela Merkel had favoured maintaining lockdown measures for longer but gradually eased restrictions in recent weeks following pressure from regional politicians to reboot the economy.

 

Already, the country is grappling to get people to adhere to isolation rules in places where they have been imposed. Over the weekend, authorities in Goettingen needed riot police to enforce quarantine measures.

 

In North-Rhine Westphalia, more than 1,300 people working at a slaugterhouse in Guetersloh tested positive for coronavirus, up from 803 infections on Friday.

 

As a result, North-Rhine Westphalia has put 7,000 people under quarantine and closed kindergartens and schools close to the abbatoir.

 

"I cannot rule out a broader lockdown," North-Rhine Westphalia's premier Armin Laschet told German television ZDF on Sunday.

 

Outbreaks in recent weeks have occurred in nursing homes, hospitals, institutions for asylum seekers and refugees, in meat processing plants and logistics companies, among seasonal harvest workers and in connection with religious events, RKI said.

 

The 2.88 rate is a jump from 1.06 on Friday, based on RKI's moving 4-day average data, which reflects infection rates one to two weeks ago.

 

Based on a 7-day average, infection rates have risen to 2.03, RKI said, adding that an accurate reading for long-term patterns will take a couple of days.

 

The spike in infections is mainly related to local outbreaks including in North Rhine-Westphalia, RKI said. North-Rhine Westphalia was one of the regions most vocal about urging Merkel to ease lockdown restrictions.

 

A high 7-day incidence rate was observed in the towns of Guetersloh and Warendorf, North Rhine-Westphalia. Further outbreaks were detected in the cities of Magdeburg, in Saxony Anhalt and the Berlin district of Neukoelln, RKI said.

 

In total, Germany has reported 189,822 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases and 8,882 deaths due to COVID-19 have been reported, RKI said.

 

In an interview published on Sunday, Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann told German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung that the economy had passed the worst of the crisis caused by the coronavirus outbreak and was now expected to recover gradually.

 

(Reporting by Edward Taylor; Editing by Nick Macfie, Emelia Sithole-Matarise and Frances Kerry)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-06-22

 

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[tribalfusion001]

This is getting boring now, fear and panic, fear and panic, bog off!

[Mama Noodle]

36 minutes ago, webfact said:

Over the weekend, authorities in Goettingen needed riot police to enforce quarantine measures.

 

Yep, for their own safety of course ????

 

[tribalfusion001]

22 minutes ago, Mama Noodle said:

 

Yep, for their own safety of course ????

 

The shape of things to come with local lockdowns in Europe.

[pacovl46]

So stupid! They should’ve locked down everything for 6 weeks 3 months ago and the whole thing would be long over! 
 

 

[Elkski]

sad state of the World when so many cant be happy spending time in the home they have. 

[welovesundaysatspace]

Unfortunately this happens when you ease lockdowns too early and give in to the right-wing nuts and conspiracy theorists.
 

[sawadee1947]

6 hours ago, tribalfusion001 said:

This is getting boring now, fear and panic, fear and panic, bog off!

That is said by an ignorant without any knowledge of science and a lack of common sense ????

[Letseng]

4 hours ago, pacovl46 said:

So stupid! They should’ve locked down everything for 6 weeks 3 months ago and the whole thing would be long over! 
 

 

They had.

[Krataiboy]

The more one hears of second waves in countries which went for lockdowns, the more one is inclined to feel the Swedes got it right.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited June 22, 2020 by Krataiboy

[rudi49jr]

9 minutes ago, Krataiboy said:

The more one hears of second waves in countries which went for lockdowns, the more one is inclined to feel the Swedes got it right.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Except they didn’t, which their top epidemiologist has admitted weeks ago already .....

[cyril sneer]

55 minutes ago, welovesundaysatspace said:

Unfortunately this happens when you ease lockdowns too early and give in to the right-wing nuts and conspiracy theorists.
 

don't you mean left-wing?

[Krataiboy]

4 minutes ago, rudi49jr said:

Except they didn’t, which their top epidemiologist has admitted weeks ago already .....

All he admitted was to was not having sufficiently protected elderly folk in residential and nursing homes. Overall he was satisfied with Sweden's response.

 

The Swedish government's decision to treat its citizens like adults rather than unruly children paid off not only in terms of the preserving civil liberties - egregiously trashed in lockdown countries - but in minimising the pandemic's impact on the economy. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[sawadee1947]

47 minutes ago, Krataiboy said:

The more one hears of second waves in countries which went for lockdowns, the more one is inclined to feel the Swedes got it right.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Totally BS. 

Even the Swedish Govt got doubts about their decision.

This leads to a decision that the neighbouring countries stop Swedes from entering. 

[tlandtday]

19 minutes ago, Krataiboy said:

All he admitted was to was not having sufficiently protected elderly folk in residential and nursing homes. Overall he was satisfied with Sweden's response.

 

The Swedish government's decision to treat its citizens like adults rather than unruly children paid off not only in terms of the preserving civil liberties - egregiously trashed in lockdown countries - but in minimising the pandemic's impact on the economy. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Isolate the sick and elderly.  99.9 percent will not have serious problems.  

[Swimfan]

1 hour ago, Krataiboy said:

The more one hears of second waves in countries which went for lockdowns, the more one is inclined to feel the Swedes got it right.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Lets wait for the Northern Fall/Winter and then we will see if Sweden got it right. 

[puipuitom]

9 hours ago, tribalfusion001 said:

This is getting boring now, fear and panic, fear and panic, bog off!

The Germans do NOT want to reach the British figures; 42.632 dead and 304.331 confirmed infected on a population of 67,5 mln, while Germany has only 8.961 corona-confirmed deaths. 191.576 infected and 174.885 cured with a population of 83,8 mln.

[puipuitom]

3 hours ago, Krataiboy said:

The more one hears of second waves in countries which went for lockdowns, the more one is inclined to feel the Swedes got it right.

Sweden, a country with a LOT of social distance, only a few cities, but   Coronavirus Cases: 56,043  Deaths: 5,053.

 

- https://www.politico.eu/article/swedish-epidemiologist-admits-to-flaws-in-countrys-coronavirus-response/

- https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/sweden-should-have-done-more-against-coronavirus-but-broad-strategy-right-chief-epidemiologist/articleshow/76180585.cms

- https://innovationorigins.com/four-european-countries-who-deeply-regret-their-corona-policies/

Edited June 22, 2020 by puipuitom

[rickudon]

Sweden got it right? Currently has the second highest number of cases per million in Europe and 5th highest death rate per million. And over the past 2 weeks, the number of daily cases has approximately doubled - which means more deaths soon. Also has a rather flaky reporting system (e.g. no cases/deaths often reported on weekends and some other days, only hospital deaths?). New cases are now being reported at about 5 times the rate of the UK.

 

Anyway, they are doing  a useful real world experiment. Hope the Swedish people do not regret it.

[Krataiboy]

19 minutes ago, puipuitom said:

Sweden, a country with a LOT of social distance, only a few cities, but   Coronavirus Cases: 56,043  Deaths: 5,053.

 

- https://www.politico.eu/article/swedish-epidemiologist-admits-to-flaws-in-countrys-coronavirus-response/

- https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/sweden-should-have-done-more-against-coronavirus-but-broad-strategy-right-chief-epidemiologist/articleshow/76180585.cms

- https://innovationorigins.com/four-european-countries-who-deeply-regret-their-corona-policies/

See my earlier posting *13

[Krataiboy]

2 hours ago, Swimfan said:

Lets wait for the Northern Fall/Winter and then we will see if Sweden got it right. 

Economically, socially and politically, they clearly did. Hopefully, being able to mingle in a way lockdown populations couldn't, Swedes will already achieved a high degree of herd immunity.

 

Mind you, seasonal flu could come along and muddy the waters, while playing into the hands of the "lockdown till we get a vaccine" political/pharmaceutical lobby.

Edited June 22, 2020 by Krataiboy

[Krataiboy]

2 hours ago, sawadee1947 said:

Totally BS. 

Even the Swedish Govt got doubts about their decision.

This leads to a decision that the neighbouring countries stop Swedes from entering. 

See my posting #13

[rudi49jr]

3 hours ago, Krataiboy said:

All he admitted was to was not having sufficiently protected elderly folk in residential and nursing homes. Overall he was satisfied with Sweden's response.

 

The Swedish government's decision to treat its citizens like adults rather than unruly children paid off not only in terms of the preserving civil liberties - egregiously trashed in lockdown countries - but in minimising the pandemic's impact on the economy. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

How can he have been satisfied with Sweden’s response when he admitted that too many people died and that if he could do it again he would opt for a ‘regime’ in between what his neighboring countries had done and what Sweden had done? 
Besides, many so-called adults obviously refuse to act like responsible adults, as is apparent now that lockdowns are being eased or totally abandoned. Just look at what is happening in America, where infection rates in states like Florida, Oklahoma and Arizona are spiking. 

[Krataiboy]

5 minutes ago, rudi49jr said:

How can he have been satisfied with Sweden’s response when he admitted that too many people died and that if he could do it again he would opt for a ‘regime’ in between what his neighboring countries had done and what Sweden had done? 
Besides, many so-called adults obviously refuse to act like responsible adults, as is apparent now that lockdowns are being eased or totally abandoned. Just look at what is happening in America, where infection rates in states like Florida, Oklahoma and Arizona are spiking. 

Sweden compares favourably to countries like the US and Britain, where lockdowns produced worse mortality rates, while wrecking their economies and trampling citizens' rights.

 

The Swedes were too gentlemanly to point out another salient fact. Numerous experts predict deaths caused by months of house arrest will far exceed those attributed to virus.

[rudi49jr]

23 minutes ago, Krataiboy said:

Sweden compares favourably to countries like the US and Britain, where lockdowns produced worse mortality rates, while wrecking their economies and trampling citizens' rights.

 

The Swedes were too gentlemanly to point out another salient fact. Numerous experts predict deaths caused by months of house arrest will far exceed those attributed to virus.

But Sweden compares quite badly to their neighboring countries where swift action was taken. You're also naming the two countries (USA and UK) with probably the worst reaction to the virus: it was downplayed for a long time and the virus could spread freely before measures like a lockdown were taken. No wonder both the USA and the UK suffered such high mortality rates, since they didn’t act before massive damage had already been done. 

[Krataiboy]

Just now, rudi49jr said:

But Sweden compares quite badly to their neighboring countries where swift action was taken. You're also naming the two countries (USA and UK) with probably the worst reaction to the virus: it was downplayed for a long time and the virus could spread freely before measures like a lockdown were taken. No wonder both the USA and the UK suffered such high mortality rates, since they didn’t act before massive damage had already been done. 

I agree that the timing of the UK and US lockdowns - after infections had actually peaked in the UK's case - was ill judged. We'll never know what the outcome would have been had they been implemented earlier, in terms of serious illness and deaths.  

 

What we DO know, however, is that lockdowns have caused appalling collateral damage in terms of  the health, human and civil rights and national economies. Hopefully, the world has learned the lesson from these events and will react more sagely to any future pandemic.

[puipuitom]

5 hours ago, Krataiboy said:

All he admitted was to was not having sufficiently protected elderly folk in residential and nursing homes. Overall he was satisfied with Sweden's response.

 

The Swedish government's decision to treat its citizens like adults rather than unruly children paid off not only in terms of the preserving civil liberties - egregiously trashed in lockdown countries - but in minimising the pandemic's impact on the economy. 

The Swedes are extremely "happy", when they compare their clean up of expensive care-oldies with the results in the other Nordic countries: Norway, Denmark and Finland.

What would YOU think, that Sweden's chief epidemiologist Anders Tegnell would confess he "<deleted> it up ? Even Boris Cummings did not do so, despite the by far highest corona-casualties per million inhabitants on the world. 

[sawadee1947]

1 hour ago, Krataiboy said:

See my posting #13

#13 still still stupid as before ????

[sawadee1947]

3 minutes ago, puipuitom said:

The Swedes are extremely "happy", when they compare their clean up of expensive care-oldies with the results in the other Nordic countries: Norway, Denmark and Finland

I hope it's only joking ????

[ukrules]

5 hours ago, sawadee1947 said:

Totally BS. 

Even the Swedish Govt got doubts about their decision.

This leads to a decision that the neighbouring countries stop Swedes from entering. 

Based on what I read there was no decision to make, their constitution doesn't allow for an enforced lockdown, so that's why there wasn't one.