Thailand had the world's first coronavirus case outside China. Here's how it avoided disaster

[josephbloggs]

13 minutes ago, ukrules said:

Doesn't this support his argument?

 

Is there anywhere that I can view the excess deaths chart for the October 2019 to May 2020 period?

 

In Europe they have the 'EuroMOMO' MOrtality MOnitoring charts here : https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/

 

Perhaps there's something similar for the ASEAN countries?

Don't think it supports it.  Seems it says there was a spike in March then things returned to normal.  Not sure why he cut that bit off his report.

Anyway, I can't be bothered to look up the numbers, largely because I don't really care that much one way or the other.  Just don't like it when people manipulate what they choose to show.

[Yinn]

11 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Yes, that's why I posted the link to the BBC article itself because I was hiding information. 

 

Brilliant theory, Yinn & Joseph.

 

You have the brass balls audacity to dare suggest that I'm lying, when I posted the actual BBC article that has the entire data? How on earth am I lying you malicious slanderer, point to the lie or admit your evil slander.

 

Like a kid. 

 

Read the OP.

[CLS]

For 3 long months Thailand has done nothing to stop the Chinese entering the country. Unlike Vietnam that has stopped them on 30th January. Yes, Vietnam has 0 Covid-19 fatalities, Thailand has 58. Just a contemplation, no causality.

 

Thailand was busy with internal quarrels between many involved agencies, until the emergency decree (call it martial law because it covers more than pandemic countermeasures) was declared on 24th March and the new installed CCSA came up with draconian measures. Many of them could not have been enforced in democracies, since there is no scientific evidence that they contribute one iota to fight Covid-19.

 

In Europe now the summer kicked in and the new infections are low day by day. The slaughterhouse in Germany is the only recent outbreak. But in there is about 12 degrees centigrade, by far less than the outdoor temperature of 25 degrees in the shade.

All Thai infections were from venues with aircon or imports.

There is no evidence that imposing such countermeasures (except prohibiting mass gathering in venues with aircon) in Thailand has saved one life or infection.

 

Correlation is not causality.

The whole article is propaganda, nothing but propaganda.

That’s what you get in authoritarian countries with no press freedom.

 

 

[Logosone]

2 minutes ago, Yinn said:

Dr Tuner and log get very excited about “extra” 2,400 deaths two months.

 

so 1,200 for one month.

 

40 per day. 

 

=less than one “extra” per province per day. 

 

this really nothing. Death is random. Less than one per day, is nothing. Can be many reason. 

 

First say mask not work, lockdown not work, etc etc. But wrong. Thailand famous the world success fight covid (the op talk about many reason why) 

Now they try safe the face. 

 

Sad.

Lol, yes, Thailand fought Covid 19 successfully by not testing for it in a real way, and thus pretending it had 58 deaths. When it had at least 2400 excess deaths during the pandemic period, though actually more because of course the road deaths were greatly reduced during that period. 

 

Now trying to save face by pointing to worthless article which takes the 58 figure, as if it were anything other than an unbelievable nonsense.

 

Silly.

[Yinn]

3 minutes ago, CLS said:

For 3 long months Thailand has done nothing to stop the Chinese entering the country. Unlike Vietnam that has stopped them on 30th January. Yes, Vietnam has 0 Covid-19 fatalities, Thailand has 58. Just a contemplation, no causality.

 

Thailand was busy with internal quarrels between many involved agencies, until the emergency decree (call it martial law because it covers more than pandemic countermeasures) was declared on 24th March and the new installed CCSA came up with draconian measures. Many of them could not have been enforced in democracies, since there is no scientific evidence that they contribute one iota to fight Covid-19.

 

In Europe now the summer kicked in and the new infections are low day by day. The slaughterhouse in Germany is the only recent outbreak. But in there is about 12 degrees centigrade, by far less than the outdoor temperature of 25 degrees in the shade.

All Thai infections were from venues with aircon or imports.

There is no evidence that imposing such countermeasures (except prohibiting mass gathering in venues with aircon) in Thailand has saved one life or infection.

 

Correlation is not causality.

The whole article is propaganda, nothing but propaganda.

That’s what you get in authoritarian countries with no press freedom.

 

 

Er. The thai government control the Australian Broadcasting Commission? 

 

Wow, big power. But can not control thai social media. 

[josephbloggs]

12 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Yes, that's why I posted the link to the BBC article itself because I was hiding information. 

 

Brilliant theory, Yinn & Joseph.

Er......you were hiding information!  You snipped off the last bit of the report that says Thailand had a spike in "all cause" deaths in March then returned to normal levels in April and May.  Why did you choose to omit that bit?  You hid it!!  

 

Quote

You have the brass balls audacity to dare suggest that I'm lying, when I posted the actual BBC article that has the entire data? How on earth am I lying you malicious slanderer, point to the lie or admit your evil slander.

Wow, calm down man.  Evil slander?  Get a grip!  You posted an article but left out the bit that contradicted your point of view.  Sorry for pointing that out in an evil slandering way.  
 

Quote

I posted very clear information from the BBC, which used Thailand's death figures that shows that Thailand had 2400 excess deaths during the Covid 19 pandemic. Nothing about that is a lie. The lie is that Thailand only had 58 deaths from Covid 19.

Yawn.  And you omitted that fact that the "all cause" deaths - which the BBC doesn't dispute - corresponds with what we all experienced here: a rise in infections in March, then a lockdown.

Next time you want to post clear information please make sure you post it all and don't accidentally cut bits off.

[DirtyHarry55]

Burma, Laos, Vietnam Cambodia all did better than Thailand so now climb down from your pedestal its not over yet.

[Logosone]

2 minutes ago, Yinn said:

Er. The thai government control the Australian Broadcasting Commission? 

 

Wow, big power. But can not control thai social media. 

It doesn't matter who controls the Australian Broadcasting Commission, what matters is that the authors of that article, as indeed the authors of that article you posted with the SK and Thailand graphs, uncritically swallow the 58 deaths figure of Thailand as if it were in any way believable.

 

As we see here, Thailand had at least 2400 excess deaths during the pandemic, though probably more as road deaths were reduced. 

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-53073046

 

The official figure of 58 deaths in Thailand is absolutely false and laughably so.

[ukrules]

2 minutes ago, josephbloggs said:

then returned to normal levels in April and May.

Ignoring the back and forth, this is the period which needs looking into in a bit more detail.

 

Road deaths were reportedly at lows in April and May compared to normal, so the overall mortality rate should have plummeted to lower levels than ever before.

 

If they returned to normal then that didn't happen which is a little interesting.

[Yinn]

4 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Lol, yes, Thailand fought Covid 19 successfully by not testing for it in a real way, and thus pretending it had 58 deaths. When it had at least 2400 excess deaths 

Less than one person per day per province different to last year. 

Is nothing. Death is random.

 

Maybe you can think of new reason to argue with ABC, WHO, the World Covid Organisation, Reuters etc etc 

 

 

[Logosone]

8 minutes ago, josephbloggs said:

Er......you were hiding information!  You snipped off the last bit of the report that says Thailand had a spike in "all cause" deaths in March then returned to normal levels in April and May.  Why did you choose to omit that bit?  You hid it!!  

 

Wow, calm down man.  Evil slander?  Get a grip!  You posted an article but left out the bit that contradicted your point of view.  Sorry for pointing that out in an evil slandering way.  
 

Yawn.  And you omitted that fact that the "all cause" deaths - which the BBC doesn't dispute - corresponds with what we all experienced here: a rise in infections in March, then a lockdown.

Next time you want to post clear information please make sure you post it all and don't accidentally cut bits off.

How am I hiding it if posted the actual link to the full data from the BBC? 

 

I didn't hide anything, I posted the full link with that data.

 

It was just the long format which meant not everything fit on the screenshot.

 

That bit of course in no way contradicts the point at all, that the BBC has shown, using Thailand's own death figures, that Thailand had at least 2400 excess deaths during the pandemic. In fact more, because the road deaths were absent during that time. 

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-53073046

Edited June 23, 2020 by Logosone

[Yinn]

6 minutes ago, josephbloggs said:

Wow, calm down man.  Evil slander?  Get a grip!  You posted an article but left out the bit that contradicted your point of view.  Sorry for pointing that out in an evil slandering way.

I be happy to send him PM my information for go to slander court together. 

 

Hmmmm 

See what will happen.

 

 

[richard_smith237]

1 hour ago, Yinn said:

Thailand 450,000+ tests.

plus 2 billion+ temperature tests road blocks, supermarkets etc. 

 

And more than any country I highlight green color. 

 

Only some Thaivisa member say “Thailand not testing” everyday.

Is false information. Is the (fake) excuse for loss your face because you wrong 4 month already. 

Some member believe it true, but they not check. 

 

Death figure is important.

Germany 8000+ dead already.

 

RIP

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/02/germany-told-it-needs-to-massively-increase-coronavirus-testing

 

Read the OP headline. Thailand test first.

 

 

Yinn... using your own source [worldometers.com]

 

- The UK has tested 12.24% of its population for Covid-19.

- Thailand has tested 0.67% of its population for Covid-19

 

Its clear Thailand is faring better - for whatever reasons (arguable & debatable, early lock down, climate, wearing masks, social factors (wai instead of handshake etc, a better behaved more responsive population when instructed to lock-down, different virus strain in Thailand, Genetic differences: T-Cell response etc etc)...  

 

BUT... one thing cannot be debated: Thailand has done very little testing compared to other nations. Maybe it doesn’t need.

IF Thailand tests more there will be more Covid-19 cases in Thailand - I can’t see how anyone could argue otherwise unless they believe Covid-19 has been eradicated from ALL of Thailand except for incoming arrivals and if you believe that, well, Prayut also has a bridge he can sell you.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited June 23, 2020 by richard_smith237

[josephbloggs]

Just now, Logosone said:

It was just the long format which meant not everything fit on the screenshot.

Ah right, of course.  Those pesky screenshots that only have enough room to fit in the bits you like.  So annoying the way that happens.

 

Quote

That bit of course in no way contradicts the point at all, that the BBC has shown, using Thailand's own death figures, that Thailand had at least 2400 excess deaths during the pandemic. In fact more, because the road deaths were absent during that time. 

By the way I know you latched on to someone else's road death idea which is nice, but - whoops - another bit just above your BBC post that didn't make it in to your screen grab said about the additional deaths you bleat on about:

Some will be unrecorded Covid-19 victims, but others may be the result of the strain on healthcare systems and a variety of other factors.

All your "evidence" is slowly evaporating, and all from your own sources.  Next time don't copy and paste the bit you like, let's be honest and include the lot.

[DirtyHarry55]

34 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

 

Yinn... using your own source [worldometers.com]

 

- The UK has tested 12.24% of its population for Covid-19.

- Thailand has tested 0.67% of its population for Covid-19

 

Its clear Thailand is faring better - for whatever reasons (arguable & debatable, early lock down, climate, wearing masks, social factors (wai instead of handshake etc, a better behaved more responsive population when instructed to lock-down, different virus strain in Thailand, Genetic differences: T-Cell response etc etc)...  

 

BUT... one thing cannot be debated: Thailand has done very little testing compared to other nations. Maybe it doesn’t need.

IF Thailand tests more there will be more Covid-19 cases in Thailand - I can’t see how anyone could argue otherwise unless they believe Covid-19 has been eradicated from ALL of Thailand except for incoming arrivals and if you believe that, well, Prayut also has a bridge he can sell you.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Don't worry she won't reply because she knows it's true

and doesn't reply to posts she can't win.

 

Edited June 23, 2020 by DirtyHarry55

[CLS]

47 minutes ago, Yinn said:

Er. The thai government control the Australian Broadcasting Commission? 

 

Wow, big power. But can not control thai social media. 

The propaganda is that Thai media publishes such biased articles.

 

Written by Amy Bainbridge and Supattra Vimonsuknopparat:

Amy Bainbridge is the ABC's South-East Asia correspondent. She was the National Consumer Affairs Reporter, covering stories for digital, radio and television. She spent two years working for China Central Television in Beijing, and has also worked in newspapers and commercial television. 
 

Supattra has no wiki entry. But looks like of Thai origin, judging by the name.

[ChouDoufu]

1 hour ago, Logosone said:

Yes, that's why I posted the link to the BBC article itself because I was hiding information. 

 

Brilliant theory, Yinn & Joseph.

 

You have the brass balls audacity to dare suggest that I'm lying, when I posted the actual BBC article that has the entire data? How on earth am I lying you malicious slanderer, point to the lie or admit your evil slander.

 

I posted very clear information from the BBC, which used Thailand's death figures that shows that Thailand had 2400 excess deaths during the Covid 19 pandemic. Nothing about that is a lie. The lie is that Thailand only had 58 deaths from Covid 19.

 

 

 

excess deaths, perhaps, but there is no requirement that thailand, or any country, must have x number of deaths per month.  the numbers are not always consistent.  there are blips that even in a pandemic may simply be coincidence. 

 

the (alleged) excess deaths statistic by itself is interesting, but really proves nothing other than there were more deaths that expected according to one specific method of accounting.  if you're going to claim for certain they were caused by the virus, then some evidence for that is necessary.

 

are there any statistics showing a breakdown of recorded causes of death?  is this a case of reading what you want into a number you find on the interwebs.  i recall 21 million dropped cellphone subscriptions was pretty hot for a couple weeks.

[gamb00ler]

7 hours ago, ukrules said:

There's no such thing as luck.

Of course there is.... it's just that gambling professionals and mathematicians call it variance.  And of course there is no way to test/predict whether your future outcome will be positive or negative.

 

If you want to know the probability that from a group of 80,000 randomly selected Wuhan residents, only 1 or 2 were infected when the infection rate was 1 in 2000 in Jan/Feb, there is a formula that will tell you.  It's called the hypergeometric distribution formula.  Spreadsheets generally have a simple built in formula to calculate the result.

 

I chose 80K as the sample size because another poster claimed that number of Wuhan residents visited Thailand in the early months of this pandemic.  I have no knowledge of the infection rate in Wuhan at that time so I just made some reasonable guess.

 

I didn't work out the answer but I am sure that there would be some reasonable chance that Thailand got "lucky" that very few of the Wuhan tourists were COVID carries.  It's probably not some million to one type odds.

[AndrewMciver]

18 hours ago, 4MyEgo said:

You can thank the humid weather and Thais having good vitamin D levels due to being exposed to the sun, which makes me wonder, has anyone taken down the statistics of those who were exposed to CV-19, e.g. male 50 years old, white from BKK, or male 50 years old brown skin from Issan ?

 

That's my take on it, besides I can't wait for Anutin to take his first jab when Thailand produces it's first cocktail, I mean vaccine, I hope it's a BIG one.......and it goes in his rear end !

 

Good weather and Vitamin D isn't helping Indians. 

 

It will take years and decades, books written how Thailand escaped this pandemic. One thing for sure is the government did <deleted> all. 

[4MyEgo]

48 minutes ago, AndrewMciver said:

 

Good weather and Vitamin D isn't helping Indians. 

 

It will take years and decades, books written how Thailand escaped this pandemic. One thing for sure is the government did <deleted> all. 

Sarcasm (mine), can sometimes go straight over the top ????

 

[4MyEgo]

9 hours ago, Yinn said:

Or you can read the link. It explain why.

 

Mrs Boosamsai is a Village Health volunteer, an army of predominantly female, community-minded workers with basic medical training.

While they are frequently called upon outside of pandemics, the strength of the volunteers has proven to be valuable amid the spread of COVID-19.

 

"During the peak in March and April, I went to visit the community every day," Mrs Boosamsai told the ABC, adding she first made sure to take precautions against being infected.

"I gave them food, masks, hand gel and taught the villagers how to wash their hands," she said.

 

 

Meanwhile ......

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ah yes transparency, telling us all what we want to believe with the low numbers.

[Tounge Thaied]

Viral Pandemic Response Teams... ha ha!!

 

Thailand Volunteers trace, track, test, treat and save all of Thailand... LOL. Not to take away from the caring volunteers who do of course help others, but to suggest they are the reason Thailand was saved from the viral pandemic... Please!!!! 

[DrTuner]

6 hours ago, josephbloggs said:

Er......you were hiding information!  You snipped off the last bit of the report that says Thailand had a spike in "all cause" deaths in March then returned to normal levels in April and May.  Why did you choose to omit that bit?  You hid it!!  

Actually I think that's my screen grab. Couldn't fit more in the laptop screen I did it on. No big conspiracy there. The lockdowns started at that point.

 

BBC gets their numbers from Thailand's DoPA, Department of Provincial Administration, as does New York Times. NYT even published the monthly data: https://github.com/nytimes/covid-19-data/blob/master/excess-deaths/deaths.csv

 

Feel free to do an analysis. You'll find elevated levels of deaths all the way up to the last quarter of 2019 until the lockdowns. Stone cold hard data, right there. Somebody at MoPH must be steaming at DoPA for releasing it.

[Yinn]

30 minutes ago, 4MyEgo said:

Ah yes transparency, telling us all what we want to believe with the low numbers.

I suspicious the Aussie numbers. 

 

Not wear mask, lot obesity, Chinese tourist, old care home. 

 

You belive that? Only 102 dead? 

Hmmmm

 

Greek one suspicious same. Near Italy, France etc 

Hmmmm 

 

 

 

[richard_smith237]

14 minutes ago, Yinn said:

I suspicious the Aussie numbers. 

 

Not wear mask, lot obesity, Chinese tourist, old care home. 

 

You belive that? Only 102 dead? 

Hmmmm

 

Greek one suspicious same. Near Italy, France etc 

Hmmmm 

 

 

 

I think thats fair enough 

 

Australia has tested 8.3% of its population - there could be far more unknown cases. However, Australia has tested more of its population than Thailand (0.67%). 

 

Greece has tested 2.8% of its population - there could more unknown cases.

 

There could be more cases in ALL of the countries remaining untested population. 

 

The UK has tested 12.25% of its population meaning there is 87.75% of the population untested, there could be a lot more unknown cases in the UK. 

 

The point here is, the fewer tests carried out, the fewer cases could ever be identified and 99.33% of Thailands population remains untested. 

[JCP108]

41 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

I think thats fair enough 

 

Australia has tested 8.3% of its population - there could be far more unknown cases. However, Australia has tested more of its population than Thailand (0.67%). 

 

Greece has tested 2.8% of its population - there could more unknown cases.

 

There could be more cases in ALL of the countries remaining untested population. 

 

The UK has tested 12.25% of its population meaning there is 87.75% of the population untested, there could be a lot more unknown cases in the UK. 

 

The point here is, the fewer tests carried out, the fewer cases could ever be identified and 99.33% of Thailands population remains untested. 

Also, while we don't have the actual percentage, it seems from the information that has been provided/discovered that less than 100% of tests performed in Thailand (and, thus, put into that total tests category) are ones whose results are officially confirmed and thus openly reported. If you only count a test if the results are reported, the number is lower. Also, tests performed isn't the same as people tested if a person gets one to three tests. So, the percentage of the population tested whose test results we officially know is probably significantly lower than that. 

Edited June 24, 2020 by JCP108

[Bkk Brian]

8 hours ago, josephbloggs said:

Er......you were hiding information!  You snipped off the last bit of the report that says Thailand had a spike in "all cause" deaths in March then returned to normal levels in April and May.  Why did you choose to omit that bit?  You hid it!!  

 

Wow, calm down man.  Evil slander?  Get a grip!  You posted an article but left out the bit that contradicted your point of view.  Sorry for pointing that out in an evil slandering way.  
 

Yawn.  And you omitted that fact that the "all cause" deaths - which the BBC doesn't dispute - corresponds with what we all experienced here: a rise in infections in March, then a lockdown.

Next time you want to post clear information please make sure you post it all and don't accidentally cut bits off.

You're using a ridiculous argument to say Logosone was hiding information by posting the screen grab that didn't capture the entire article. He also posted the link. Use some sense!

 

Excess deaths does not indicate they are all related to COVID but it is well known that they are the best indicator for the impact on mortality of the pandemic, its what WHO use's as a measure also. 

 

In Thailand's case the fact is that the number of road deaths was reduced in that period by a significant number, flu deaths were also reduced. In a country were the hospitals were overwhelmed such as Italy then the excess deaths would also take into account many other causes because of people just not going to hospitals when they should. However in Thailand aside from 2 or 3 hospitals in Bangkok the health system was never stretched and people were still able to visit hospitals and have regular health care.

 

This makes the high number of excess deaths in Thailand very suspicious for that period, of course not all could be attributed to COVID but its without doubt that many were.

Edited June 24, 2020 by Bkk Brian

[Bkk Brian]

59 minutes ago, Yinn said:

I suspicious the Aussie numbers. 

 

Not wear mask, lot obesity, Chinese tourist, old care home. 

 

You belive that? Only 102 dead? 

Hmmmm

 

Greek one suspicious same. Near Italy, France etc 

Hmmmm 

 

 

 

Then you should go to an Aussie forum and express your suspicions

[Cake Monster]

11 hours ago, ukrules said:

I'm thinking more like October

 

Have they ruled out that this could have started in Thailand and then mutated in China?

There were certainly quite a few very sick people in and around Pattaya during late October / early November.

Being one of the sick, and so was my Wife, I can really say that I have never felt so ill for so long ( a month ), and this was no ordinary Flu or cold, and she was worse than I was , and for longer..

Since living in Thailand for some 15 years, I have experienced some unexplained illness,s similar to this, but nowhere near as potent. The others have been a 3 on a comparison scale. 

This was a viral thing, as Amoxicillin would not even scratch the surface of this thing, despite upping the dose and prolonging the period of medication.

Maybe, just maybe, the Virus could have started in China, and then was transmitted by a super spreader into Thailand.

If, and I repeat If, this was the possible cause of so many people being so ill.

I guess that we will never know if this was the case, as time goes by and little testing has been carried out.

[Xaos]

Its not success its a disaster. 

 

The Dark Side Of Thailand's Coronavirus Success

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/06/16/874198026/the-cost-of-thailands-coronavirus-success-despair-and-suicide?fbclid=IwAR1fSUmQXep_EnG8DS5Ia4YyoYJoUeFdRpXYj9EGinbC0rEUEv9vA27OCtA