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UK ready to quit EU on 'Australia terms' if no Brexit deal, Johnson says


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5 hours ago, johnpetersen said:

This is untrue. You can only wring so much devaluation out of monetary policy. If a huge surplus of foreign currency flows into your economy, for whatever the reason, be it for interest rates on government bonds or from a trade surplus the value of the currency goes up. This is a very basic exchange rate truism. In fact, it's at the foundation of how exchange rates work.

untrue? Then explain the exchange rate trend between the euro and the Turkish lira. or between the British pound and the euro. The euro is sitting in the interest rate trap. There are now penalty interest on savings! Negative interest! If you can call that interest at all.

 

There is no more valuable capital inflow. The euro as an capital investment, forget it. If Germany had its beloved D - mark, the country would be much better off.

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1 hour ago, Logosone said:

That is just not true. Germany has prospered due to the hard and intelligent work of producing products that are better than anyone else's. People do not buy German products on price. They buy them on quality. So a devalued currency is not the key factor. In fact German growth rates were much better BEFORE the Euro arrived.

 

Germany does not need the EURO. The Euro is a charity project for Germany. A way to maintain peace at best. It is not an economic vehicle for European dominance. Germany's economy was doing much better before the Euro. 

 

Greece should never have been admitted, and indeed the ideological idioticy that we will be exposed to by some in the EU now that the common sense Brits have left is rather frightening. 

 

However Greece should not be seen as a victim of the EU, it was a victim of its own economic overspending and mismanagement and it benefitted greatly from the EU. Just like Poland and all the other economic handout recipients.

 

 

100% agree.

Spot on.

a common currency without a common tax policy was not a good idea.

This can only be understood from the history. The founding fathers of the EU and later the Euro Zone all witnessed the Second World War. The EU Project was in its beginnings a peace project. This philosophy can also be found as the first sentence in the preamble.

 

The peoples of Europe are determined to share a peaceful future based on shared values by uniting into an ever closer union.

 

Unfortunately, the eu-phoria overlooked some important details when the euro was introduced.

Edited by tomacht8
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4 hours ago, tomacht8 said:

Now I have to ask. If you look at the UK - EU exchange rate trend, the British pound has dropped since 2004 (1 pound = 1.70 euros) to today 2020 (1 pound = 1.11 euros). The British pound has depreciated enormously over time.

 

And yet, over decades, germany has a great foreign trade surplus with the UK.

 

How do you explain your thesis then?

That the Euro is an essentially devalued currency, 

chart.png

What thesis? I wasn't talking about Sterling. The issue was the Euro, Germany and Greece.

 

Exchange rates for the Euro were set in 1999. At that time Germany adopted the Euro, it this was essentially a devaluation of (German) currency (from the previously relatively strong Deutsche Mark), as the Euro value was set from the weighted value of 11 EU member states' currencies. 

 

 

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3 hours ago, tomacht8 said:

100% agree.

Spot on.

a common currency without a common tax policy was not a good idea.

This can only be understood from the history. The founding fathers of the EU and later the Euro Zone all witnessed the Second World War. The EU Project was in its beginnings a peace project. This philosophy can also be found as the first sentence in the preamble.

 

The peoples of Europe are determined to share a peaceful future based on shared values by uniting into an ever closer union.

 

Unfortunately, the eu-phoria overlooked some important details when the euro was introduced.

Well, if you believe that EU line.... you'll believe anything.

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4 hours ago, Logosone said:

That is just not true. Germany has prospered due to the hard and intelligent work of producing products that are better than anyone else's. People do not buy German products on price. They buy them on quality. So a devalued currency is not the key factor. In fact German growth rates were much better BEFORE the Euro arrived.

 

Germany does not need the EURO. The Euro is a charity project for Germany. A way to maintain peace at best. It is not an economic vehicle for European dominance. Germany's economy was doing much better before the Euro. 

 

Greece should never have been admitted, and indeed the ideological idioticy that we will be exposed to by some in the EU now that the common sense Brits have left is rather frightening. 

 

However Greece should not be seen as a victim of the EU, it was a victim of its own economic overspending and mismanagement and it benefitted greatly from the EU. Just like Poland and all the other economic handout recipients.

 

 

I am not sure everyone would agree with your statement on Germany producing products that are better than anyone else's

These people don't

A landmark legal action against Volkswagen has begun, with hundreds of thousands of German consumers seeking compensation from the carmaker over emissions test cheating.

The case involves about 470,000 owners of diesel-powered cars sold after 1 November 2008 by the Volkswagen Group. The cars affected included vehicles under the Volkswagen, Audi, Seat and Skoda brands.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/sep/30/volkswagen-emissions-scandal-mass-lawsuit-opens-in-germany

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, nauseus said:

Of course it is true. I did not say devalued currency is the key factor but it is a factor.

 

For Germany to control the EU it does need the Euro. Germany's economy did OK before and after the Euro. 

 

Greece should never have been admitted - agreed already. Greece is a victim of the EU and itself. 

Yes of course a cheaper price is a factor, but overall German products will always be competitive. Unless they allow themselves to be copied and others produce them much cheaper, as happened with the German camera industry which was destroyed by the Japanese producing cheap copies. Even now of course Leica is the true premium camera manufacturer, but yes with cameras Germany clearly was blue-eyed and naive. The same with Germany's television producers, Grundig, ITT Schaub Lorenz, Telefunken, Nordmende they all went by the wayside. Until recently one premium German TV producer, in fact one of the inventors of the TV, Loewe, was still in the market but they have now thrown in the towel recently. That was purely because they made technological mistakes related to software and if your product is worse then you deserve to fold. I bought a Loewe and it was clearly worse than the competition in terms of software. If you can not produce a better product you deserve to go bankrupt.

 

But in many other areas German companies are competing based on knowledge and as long as they can retain their knowledge advantage it's hard to see Germany not exporting in record numbers with the quality of products Germany sells. From knives to cameras to televisions to ventilators to sports apparel German products are among the best in the world. A fluctuation in exchange rate is a factor but it is not more important than the quality being produced. In fact companies like BASF and Volkswagen have currency trading departments that earn millions from currency trading.

 

In terms of Europe the German economy will always be dominant just due to its size alone. Germany doesn't need the Euro to be the most important economy in Europe. That's a given.

 

I would much rather have an EU including Britain, Holland, Norway, France, Sweden, Luxembourg, Austria, but the over-expansion eastwards and southwards is clearly a huge mistake. That will always be a drain and a charity project. It is not to the benefit of Germany, but to the benefit of countries that are net recipients of German taxpayer money. It is charity.

 

 

 

 

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9 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

I am not sure everyone would agree with your statement on Germany producing products that are better than anyone else's

These people don't

A landmark legal action against Volkswagen has begun, with hundreds of thousands of German consumers seeking compensation from the carmaker over emissions test cheating.

The case involves about 470,000 owners of diesel-powered cars sold after 1 November 2008 by the Volkswagen Group. The cars affected included vehicles under the Volkswagen, Audi, Seat and Skoda brands.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/sep/30/volkswagen-emissions-scandal-mass-lawsuit-opens-in-germany

 

 

 

That's a nonsense of course. Volkswagen cars are among the best in the world. You do realise that Volkswagen own Bentley, Bugatti, Porsche? 

 

Volkswagen makes some of the best cars you can buy.

 

I owned a Volkswagen Diesel, a 10 cylinder Touareg. Fantastic car.

 

The software manipulation regarding emissions was of course common practice in the Auto industry, virtually all manufacturers, Mitsubishi, Nissan, Toyota, General Motors, Chrysler, Ford, Cadillac, Honda, were found to have manipulated emission data.

 

It says nothing about the quality of the car. In fact it's quite a feat to tweak software to recognise when it is in test mode compared to real driving. 

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21 minutes ago, Logosone said:

That's a nonsense of course. Volkswagen cars are among the best in the world. You do realise that Volkswagen own Bentley, Bugatti, Porsche? 

 

Volkswagen makes some of the best cars you can buy.

 

I owned a Volkswagen Diesel, a 10 cylinder Touareg. Fantastic car.

 

The software manipulation regarding emissions was of course common practice in the Auto industry, virtually all manufacturers, Mitsubishi, Nissan, Toyota, General Motors, Chrysler, Ford, Cadillac, Honda, were found to have manipulated emission data.

 

It says nothing about the quality of the car. In fact it's quite a feat to tweak software to recognise when it is in test mode compared to real driving. 

So will Volkswagen do the decent thing for their customers

Klaus Müller, the chair of the VZBV, the consumer group leading the action, this month said the car industry was not assuming sufficient responsibility for its actions with regard to the scandal.

All diesel owners should have their cars retrofitted with financial support from the manufacturer, Müller said. He added that the new legal instrument would allow hundreds of thousands of people to “enforce their rights”.

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39 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Yes of course a cheaper price is a factor, but overall German products will always be competitive. Unless they allow themselves to be copied and others produce them much cheaper, as happened with the German camera industry which was destroyed by the Japanese producing cheap copies. Even now of course Leica is the true premium camera manufacturer, but yes with cameras Germany clearly was blue-eyed and naive. The same with Germany's television producers, Grundig, ITT Schaub Lorenz, Telefunken, Nordmende they all went by the wayside. Until recently one premium German TV producer, in fact one of the inventors of the TV, Loewe, was still in the market but they have now thrown in the towel recently. That was purely because they made technological mistakes related to software and if your product is worse then you deserve to fold. I bought a Loewe and it was clearly worse than the competition in terms of software. If you can not produce a better product you deserve to go bankrupt.

 

But in many other areas German companies are competing based on knowledge and as long as they can retain their knowledge advantage it's hard to see Germany not exporting in record numbers with the quality of products Germany sells. From knives to cameras to televisions to ventilators to sports apparel German products are among the best in the world. A fluctuation in exchange rate is a factor but it is not more important than the quality being produced. In fact companies like BASF and Volkswagen have currency trading departments that earn millions from currency trading.

 

In terms of Europe the German economy will always be dominant just due to its size alone. Germany doesn't need the Euro to be the most important economy in Europe. That's a given.

 

I would much rather have an EU including Britain, Holland, Norway, France, Sweden, Luxembourg, Austria, but the over-expansion eastwards and southwards is clearly a huge mistake. That will always be a drain and a charity project. It is not to the benefit of Germany, but to the benefit of countries that are net recipients of German taxpayer money. It is charity.

 

 

 

 

Well, I agree with most of that chapter! I certainly recognise German quality in manufacturing. I even drive a German car but decided not to take the option of a chauffeur! ???? Not a VW though! ????

 

image.jpeg.ab469795b7be19288e3b0cbf1d252f97.jpeg 

Edited by nauseus
Not a VW though!
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31 minutes ago, tomacht8 said:

You simply make claims without verifying the facts or substantiating those claims.

 

The following exchange rate relations existed at the time the euro cash was introduced:

 

31.December 2001
1 EUR = 1.95583 DEM

 

31. December 2001
1 US Dollar = 2.18449 DEM

 

2,18449 / 1, 95583
1 Euro = 1.11 Dollar

 

2002 mean dollar exchange rate:

1 Euro = 1.0610 Dollar

 

Today: 1 Euro = 1.13 Dollar

 

Where is your essentially devaluation?

 

It is annoying when populist slogans are posted here, which are simply incorrect.

 

What is annoying are posts like this. I am not talking about today! I am talking about 1999!

 

Populist my backside. Take a trek.

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1 hour ago, Logosone said:

From knives to cameras to televisions to ventilators to sports apparel German products are among the best in the world.

Are you German by any chance? ???? 
I wasn’t aware Germans make the best sports apparel in the world. And cameras? Leica makes good cameras, but are they among the best in the world? And let’s not talk about tech and digital. Apart from SAP and TeamViewer, there’s not much Germany in that landscape. 

 

 

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46 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

So will Volkswagen do the decent thing for their customers

Klaus Müller, the chair of the VZBV, the consumer group leading the action, this month said the car industry was not assuming sufficient responsibility for its actions with regard to the scandal.

All diesel owners should have their cars retrofitted with financial support from the manufacturer, Müller said. He added that the new legal instrument would allow hundreds of thousands of people to “enforce their rights”.

Well, obviously it is shameful deception. Volkswagen, like all others, has no choice but to right the wrong at its own cost. I am stunned German companies have done this as well as I would have expected German companies to be honest, as we Germans are the most honest people in the world. And by a long distance. But obviously this was disgraceful. Deliberate deception. I'm shocked this happened at a German company. It violates everything what it means to be German.

 

 

 

 

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6 hours ago, tomacht8 said:

25%? Where come this number from?

Manipulated currency?

Please spare us the stupid Trump propaganda.

The last thing germany do, is to produce cheap products. It is exactly the opposite. high-end custom-made products. What a nonsense to equate China and Germany.

The Euro is indeed undervalued for Germany, but it is also overvalued for other countries in the bloc. If the bloc were to break up, Germany's restored currency would appreciate, but other restored currencies would depreciate.
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12 minutes ago, welovesundaysatspace said:

 

Are you German by any chance? ???? 
I wasn’t aware Germans make the best sports apparel in the world. And cameras? Leica makes good cameras, but are they among the best in the world? And let’s not talk about tech and digital. Apart from SAP and TeamViewer, there’s not much Germany in that landscape. 

 

 

I won in a rollover week, so yes.

 

So you are not familiar with Adidas the inventors of the sports shoe? Much copied by Japanese and American companies? The favourite brand among milennials? That's odd. That's how Nike started, by copying the Japanese that copied Adidas.

 

Leica is in a class of its own when it comes to cameras. Of course they are among  the best in the world. Just listen to the Chicago Tribune:

 

"Leica brand cameras are among the highest-quality models you'll find, especially delivering outstanding craftsmanship in the lenses, creating sharp images.

 

Leica uses only the highest-quality materials in its camera bodies and lenses. You'll pay a premium for these types of materials."

 

https://www.chicagotribune.com/consumer-reviews/sns-bestreviews-electronics-the-best-leica-camera-20200424-aek4h6uvjzgk3ew7nr3yxxrwqe-story.html

 

There are literally thousands of German high tech companies, Germany invented the MP3 btw. Also WireCard is all over the news now...(????).

Edited by Logosone
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1 hour ago, tomacht8 said:

You simply make claims without verifying the facts or substantiating those claims.

 

The following exchange rate relations existed at the time the euro cash was introduced:

 

31.December 2001
1 EUR = 1.95583 DEM

 

31. December 2001
1 US Dollar = 2.18449 DEM

 

2,18449 / 1, 95583
1 Euro = 1.11 Dollar

 

2002 mean dollar exchange rate:

1 Euro = 1.0610 Dollar

 

Today: 1 Euro = 1.13 Dollar

 

Where is your essentially devaluation?

 

It is annoying when populist slogans are posted here, which are simply incorrect.

 

This is utterly irrelevant to the question of whether or not the economies of the less prosperous nations of the Eurozone depress the value of the Euro and give Germany an advantage in export markets. And of course the answer is that it must do so. The same way that if a large portion of a nation is troubled economically it will depress that value of that nation's currency. And it should be pointed out that not only does the Euro give Germany an advantage in exports. It also means that other Eurozone nations will have a harder time competing in internal markets as well. If those nations had their own currencies, the values would drop and make them more competitive.

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11 minutes ago, johnpetersen said:

This is utterly irrelevant to the question of whether or not the economies of the less prosperous nations of the Eurozone depress the value of the Euro and give Germany an advantage in export markets. And of course the answer is that it must do so. The same way that if a large portion of a nation is troubled economically it will depress that value of that nation's currency. And it should be pointed out that not only does the Euro give Germany an advantage in exports. It also means that other Eurozone nations will have a harder time competing in internal markets as well. If those nations had their own currencies, the values would drop and make them more competitive.

Oh please. Yes without the lower currency of course Greek, British and Polish cars would outsell German cars by a massive margin.

 

Lol.

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23 minutes ago, Logosone said:

I won in a rollover week, so yes.

 

So you are not familiar with Adidas the inventors of the sports shoe? Much copied by Japanese and American companies? The favourite brand among milennials? That's odd. That's how Nike started, by copying the Japanese that copied Adidas.

 

Leica is in a class of its own when it comes to cameras. Of course they are among  the best in the world. Just listen to the Chicago Tribune:

 

"Leica brand cameras are among the highest-quality models you'll find, especially delivering outstanding craftsmanship in the lenses, creating sharp images.

 

Leica uses only the highest-quality materials in its camera bodies and lenses. You'll pay a premium for these types of materials."

 

https://www.chicagotribune.com/consumer-reviews/sns-bestreviews-electronics-the-best-leica-camera-20200424-aek4h6uvjzgk3ew7nr3yxxrwqe-story.html

 

There are literally thousands of German high tech companies, Germany invented the MP3 btw. Also WireCard is all over the news now...(????).

I enjoyed your recitation of ancient history. Adidas was long ago eclipsed by Nike which reinvented running shoe., Leica was very slow to adapt to digital photography. Tesla is far, far ahead of the German auto industry when it comes to EV's. German performance in AI is pitiful. And where are the German versions of Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Ebay, Cisco, Intel etc...

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5 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Oh please. Yes without the lower currency of course Greek, British and Polish cars would outsell German cars by a massive margin.

 

Lol.

Because companies such as Toyota and Honda wouldn't invest in those countries if costs were much lower? Really? 

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6 minutes ago, johnpetersen said:

I enjoyed your recitation of ancient history. Adidas was long ago eclipsed by Nike which reinvented running shoe., Leica was very slow to adapt to digital photography. Tesla is far, far ahead of the German auto industry when it comes to EV's. German performance in AI is pitiful. And where are the German versions of Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Ebay, Cisco, Intel etc...

Nike copied Japanese copyists of Adidas but yes they've done well. Still, even the Americans admit:

 

"Nike is not used to playing catchup, but Adidas is beating it in technology, innovation and style."

 

https://money.cnn.com/2018/04/16/news/companies/adidas-nike-sportswear/index.html#:~:text=Adidas is still much smaller,which is making Nike sweat.&text=But Nike still courts some of the biggest names in sports.

 

Leica understood that digital was a game changer. And most importantly they understood that DSLRs were on the way out. They have also started to co-operate with mobile phone manufacturers. Their understanding of the market is excellent.

 

As for claiming Tesla is ahead of the German auto industry that's just laughable. Porsche has just come out with the Taycan that trumps every Tesla car ever made.

 

Germany had computer manufacturers like Siemens and Medion, however, they were bought by Fujitsu and Lenovo respectively. SAP is the Microsoft of business software. Germany invented the MP3. Indeed the computer, with Konrad Zuse.

 

But the best of the best would have to be Miele. Their washing machines, ovens and driers are light years ahead of the competition. 

 

German made products are a blessing for humanity. 

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30 minutes ago, johnpetersen said:

Because companies such as Toyota and Honda wouldn't invest in those countries if costs were much lower? Really? 

They can invest all they want, without the knowledge advantage that German car companies have amassed over decades they will never produce anything to rival a Porsche.

 

Even to this day when Lexus has copied the Mercedes to death, and indeed succeeded in making Lexus quieter than a Mercedes, even now, you step into a Lexus and you feel right away this is not the same quality as a Mercedes or Porsche. It's close, but it's just not quite that good.

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 (Even Boris is not ready, and not start controls....the E.U. seems starting anyway 1 Jan.2021 ???? )

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/07/07/eu-ready-full-brexit-border-checks-next-year-barnier-claims/


EU 'ready' for full Brexit border checks next year, Barnier claims 
Michel Barnier said there would be customs controls from January 1, even though the UK won't be ready for full border checks until July 


By James Crisp, 
Brussels Correspondent 
7 July 2020 • 11:10am 

2020-07-08_191903.png

 

The European Union will introduce full border checks with the UK on January 1, despite Britain introducing customs controls on EU goods more slowly and whether or not the two sides agree a trade deal.


Michel Barnier warned a House of Lords Committee that Brussels “will not delay things”, despite a Government U-Turn, which meant full controls on imports to the UK not being imposed for another six months after the EU. 


The UK announced a gradual three phased implementation of border checks in June after previously insisting that checks would be inevitable. Full border checks will now only apply on EU goods entering the UK from July 2021.  

 

more...

 

Edited by david555
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1 hour ago, Logosone said:

Oh please. Yes without the lower currency of course Greek, British and Polish cars would outsell German cars by a massive margin.

 

Lol.

Not the point and I hope that you realize that.

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17 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Nike copied Japanese copyists of Adidas but yes they've done well. Still, even the Americans admit:

 

"Nike is not used to playing catchup, but Adidas is beating it in technology, innovation and style."

 

https://money.cnn.com/2018/04/16/news/companies/adidas-nike-sportswear/index.html#:~:text=Adidas is still much smaller,which is making Nike sweat.&text=But Nike still courts some of the biggest names in sports.

 

Leica understood that digital was a game changer. And most importantly they understood that DSLRs were on the way out. They have also started to co-operate with mobile phone manufacturers. Their understanding of the market is excellent.

 

As for claiming Tesla is ahead of the German auto industry that's just laughable. Porsche has just come out with the Taycan that trumps every Tesla car ever made.

 

Germany had computer manufacturers like Siemens and Medion, however, they were bought by Fujitsu and Lenovo respectively. SAP is the Microsoft of business software. Germany invented the MP3. Indeed the computer, with Konrad Zuse.

 

But the best of the best would have to be Miele. Their washing machines, ovens and driers are light years ahead of the competition. 

 

German made products are a blessing for humanity. 

Yes. Now Adidas is playing catchup.

As for Leica, you've got to be kidding.

Late to Digital, Leica Slow to Refocus

German Camera Pioneer Fired American CEO Who Pressed for Filmless Future
OLMS, Germany -- Leica Camera AG's employment dispute with fired Chief Executive Steven Lee brings to light the venerable German company's troubles moving into the digital age.
The quirky company, which helped create modern photography in the early 20th century, stuck too long with film technology and now faces mounting losses and sinking sales.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB122152103387739231

And in size, Leica is now a blip compared to its Japanese competitors.

 

As for Porsche and other German manufacturers of EV's You don't get it. Tesla built EV's from the ground up. They are an integrated system. Not so German EVs. Here's a report from a German EV engineer:

German Automaker Paradigms

“German engineering” has had a top-notch reputation for good reason for a long time, and it’s a reputation well deserved. The question I have is, how is it possible that this experienced industry that has dominated important segments of the auto market for such a long time, with all its resources, could fail so miserably in developing competitive fully electric vehicles (BEVs)?

In various articles, I tried to explain my version of the truth by discussing technology, economics, disruption, culture, people, innovation, and change, but today I want to give you the opportunity to listen to what some of the senior German automotive executives and managers told me face to face about BEVs.

https://cleantechnica.com/2020/06/06/german-automaker-paradigms/

ANd there's this

Germany’s falling behind on tech, and Merkel knows it

Party politics and cultural inertia bedevil efforts to shift into high gear on artificial intelligence.

One of the first things Angela Merkel told a group of experts in artificial intelligence during a closed-door meeting in late May was that they should be frank with her.

“I’m used to bad news,” Merkel said, according to a participant's recollection.

https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-falling-behind-china-on-tech-innovation-artificial-intelligence-angela-merkel-knows-it/

 

But hey, Germany is winning the dishwasher, oven, and drier competition. And that's where the future of cutting-edge technology lies.

 

 

 

 

Gre

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1 hour ago, johnpetersen said:

Because companies such as Toyota and Honda wouldn't invest in those countries if costs were much lower? Really? 

They are.

You only have to look at the gross wage level per country.

images (1).png

Edited by tomacht8
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30 minutes ago, Logosone said:

They can invest all they want, without the knowledge advantage that German car companies have amassed over decades they will never produce anything to rival a Porsche.

 

Even to this day when Lexus has copied the Mercedes to death, and indeed succeeded in making Lexus quieter than a Mercedes, even now, you step into a Lexus and you feel right away this is not the same quality as a Mercedes or Porsche. It's close, but it's just not quite that good.

And German manufacturers will never make cars as low in defects as the Japanese.

Overall Dependability Rises in Germany but Buyers of German Brands Less Satisfied, J.D. Power Finds

“Vehicle buyers in Germany appear to be particularly loyal to German premium marques, but this will not last if the product experience does not hold up to the initial delight at the time of purchase,” said Josh Halliburton, Head of European Operations at J.D. Power. “Volvo—the leading premium marque—and most major volume brands rank well above the German brands. Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz need to improve the reliability and robustness of the premium features and materials before customers look elsewhere.”

https://www.jdpower.com/business/press-releases/2019-germany-vehicle-dependability-study

 

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