Thailand is red-lighted in UK for quarantine purposes alongside Brazil, China and US, inexplicable move

[pantsonfire]

Just now, DavisH said:

Wny test more when our positivity rate is 0? Whom do you suggest be tested? Daily PUI are published, so we have  rough estimate of testing numbers. Testing rates are low because few people are presenting to hospitals with symptoms. 

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/situation.php?fbclid=IwAR0z6KVnHMHL8qImlTGsVIBcoS3C0wi4eKnrOBmj5tSuhvbHZFYv10x9A1o

Thais rather focus on working to earn money than go to hospitals.  They are having to resort to stealing and asking for advance payment of salaries and then disappearing to survive.

[Older bolder]

When you are trying to visit Thailand 14-day state quarantine at your expense fit to fly certificate fit to fly covid-19 certificate 72 hours before you fly $100,000 covid-19 insurance ..when a Thai person travelling to the UK it's just 14-day quarantine simple....

[DavisH]

18 minutes ago, Purdey said:

Without proper testing, it is no wonder Thailand doesn't create credibility among some countries. While most writers appear sceptical on Thai Visa, many have just accepted what they were told about the number of cases. Maybe taking the military's numbers with a pinch of salt will save your life. 

What is "proper testing"?

 

[Fairynuff]

3 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

Here's your claim:

 

"And the UK has lied consistently on testing, got caught doing it over and over again and then stopped releasing test data. They only talk about testing capacity, big deal, they can say have 20 million a day capacity, but if they’re only testing 50k it’s pointless"

 

With no facts to back it up, as I said nonsense on all points and complete lies:

 

Here's the real facts: https://coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/testing

Do some proper research, it’s all there unless it doesn’t suit your agenda

[DavisH]

Just now, pantsonfire said:

Thais rather focus on working to earn money than go to hospitals.  They are having to resort to stealing and asking for advance payment of salaries and then disappearing to survive.

Rubbish. Thais will present to a hospital with even the mildest of symptoms of the flu. And if there were large numbers of cases and many people getting (very)sick, it would be all over social media. 

[Logosone]

16 minutes ago, Peter Denis said:

Spot on!

Open your eyes, look around you and let what you see sink in.

Conclusion > there simply is no "hidden covid crisis" in Thailand.

Thailand is covid-free.

Or let me add 'as good as', because of course there will be some simpletons arguing that some cases have not been counted (big deal on a population of 70 million), or that there is an Army of asymptomatic virus-spreaders walking around.

It boggles the mind that some don't want to accept this Good News, but insist that everybody in Thailand is still in eminent danger. 

 

 

Thailand is not in eminent danger, no, because like in most countries the number of Covid19 deaths is in the range of 2000-11000. However, obviously Thailand is not free of the virus. And if you take the usual numbers there would be at least 20,000 perhaps 110,000 people with the virus.

 

There does not need to be a crisis of any kind, visible or otherwise, for the virus to be present. Germany is not in crisis, it has 9000 deaths in a population of 80 million. However, because a proper effort was made to test we know to argue that Germany is Covid19 free would be false.

 

It is not good news for Thailand and all of us living in Thailand, that we don't even know the real numbers of people who have the virus or died of the virus, because 99% of the population was not tested.

[DavisH]

5 minutes ago, Peterw42 said:

Consider what is currently happening in the US, the virus is being spread by, as you say, an army of asymptomatic virus-spreaders.

The death rate isnt going up and until recently hospital admission rate was not going up. Healthy young people have been spreading it.

The virus has still been spreading, its only through widespread testing that they know about, Otherwise they would think the same a you, no cases at hospitial, it must be over.

I wouldn't buy the story of asymptomatic spreaders in Thailand though - if there were any appreciable number, they would have infected other more vulnerable people who would have ended up in hospital. 

[7fish]

3 hours ago, Fairynuff said:

Because you deny the facts doesn’t make them lies. Do your research before you call people liars 

Not true, as everyone ought to know by now opinions now count as facts.  it turns out 200 years of medical history and all that sciency stuff is useless in the face of cornholio so we are making it up as we go, and while we are at it we can introduce all sorts of societal changes that people will hate, .. but they accept them ... just save us from the cornholio, we'll do anything...anything.

[lkv]

2 hours ago, spiekerjozef said:

Another bad decision from the UK.

They have quite a few (lot) of them lately.

Of course we can always fly to Greece first.

 

Just wait until Greece tests the whole plane, as they have over the last week, from select destinations.

 

Then we will see how covid free Thailand really is.

[transam]

Does LOS test the newly dead for C19, after all, must be near 10,000 a week get sent up the chimney in very short order for whatever reason of death....????

[smedly]

6 hours ago, Trillian said:

Once again, does doing more tests change the number of deaths!

it is all about the data 

 

with data from various countries they can determine accurately every aspect of this virus and its effects - spread and mortality rate, so far it is shown to be constant throughout the world  

[NoshowJones]

3 hours ago, robblok said:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-53073046

 

for anyone really interested and not interested in Thaibashing. Thailand reported around 2400 deatsh more then normal. That is on top of the 56 deaths so if we all attribute those to covid then still they did it many times better then sickly UK. 

 

In the UK 64500 people died more then normal. See the difference. 

 

I doubt the proud Thai bashing people from the UK will ever acknowledge that their country royally screwed up and the harsh measures Thailand imposed worked.

 

So why import cases from a known virus hotspot. UK is just being childish by not putting Thailand on the risk as its a low risk country. But then again what do you expect from a country run by their current PM. 

The UK PM is a liar and hypocrite, hated by the British working class, as is all the other UK PMs this century, but at least he is a politician, university educated, and voted in by the UK People where Thailands PM is an ex military, educated at military academies, no political background and unelected by the Thai people. 

 

The only thing they have in common is every time their lips move a lie comes out.

[tlandtday]

5 hours ago, brommers said:

Who on their right mind would want to go to the UK anyway! Dirty, miserable little place inhabited by chinless wonders and yobs. Ruled by Benny Hill and his gang of incompetent yes persons.

Silly.  If not one wants to go there then why are so many upset including yourself?

[tlandtday]

8 hours ago, scubascuba3 said:

They obviously don't trust the Thai government figures provided, test numbers were very low and shady

They are smart.  They can see no testing equals no problem.  Proof is in the pudding.  Thailand needs more pudding.

[smedly]

4 hours ago, Jimbo53 said:

And only certain categories from those countries are allowed into Thailand with a lot of hasslle paperwork and quarantine,so why should the UK let passengers from Thailand in without quarantine?

and not to forget the very expensive Thai only mandatory scam insurance 

[Peter Denis]

9 minutes ago, Peterw42 said:

Consider what is currently happening in the US, the virus is being spread by, as you say, an army of asymptomatic virus-spreaders.

The death rate isn't going up and until recently hospital admission rate was not going up. Healthy young people have been spreading it.

The virus has still been spreading, its only through widespread testing that they know about, Otherwise they would think the same a you, no cases at hospital, it must be over.

@Peterw42 > You know that I respect your opinion and views on most topics.

But I would never compare the covid-situation in Thailand with USA, to give credulence to the notion that Thailand is presently threatened by an invisible army of asymptomatic virus-spreaders.

Simple question > Who should be tested, that aren't tested already?

[transam]

5 hours ago, brommers said:

Who on their right mind would want to go to the UK anyway! Dirty, miserable little place inhabited by chinless wonders and yobs. Ruled by Benny Hill and his gang of incompetent yes persons.

How did you come to that conclusion..?  ????

 

What big clean country do you come from.?  ????

[Fairynuff]

49 minutes ago, Matzzon said:

Sorry, but the UK was leaving EU. You know, Brexit and all that. ???? 

How I long for the day that your posts will make any sense

[welovesundaysatspace]

1 hour ago, RichardColeman said:

And you think that is reassuring ? Your argument goes against you.

With approximately 8,000 people dying in Thailand every day, that puts excess deaths at 160 more per day. If we assume that all countries excess deaths are down to covid, Thailand's claim of less than 60 deaths, is in reality near 14,500 deaths ! NOT 58 ! That would be the reason for banning Thais - 14,500 unreported potential covid deaths. 

I think you don’t understand what “excess deaths” measures. It’s the difference of recorded deaths (regardless of whatever cause was recorded) vs. average deaths of the past for the same period. So if Thailand had 14,500 unreported Covid deaths, then the number of excess deaths would have to be much higher than 2,400:

 

excess deaths = deaths in T(2020) - average deaths for T(past) 

 

risk of unreported Covid deaths = excess deaths - reported Covid deaths 

 

Put in your 14,500 into those equations and you will see that it doesn’t make sense. 

Edited July 6, 2020 by welovesundaysatspace

[smedly]

4 hours ago, welovesundaysatspace said:

Thailand has excess deaths of just 2% for period 1 Mar - 31 May

factor in the massive reduction in road deaths and you might be getting close

[smudger1951]

6 hours ago, Wiggy said:

Could it be due to the continued extension of the State of Emergency that makes the UK wary? I mean, it’s almost like Thailand saying itself that things aren’t right. 

Absolutely. if LOS is still in Emergency and prohibits us with more hoops to jump through than a dog agility show, what do you ecpect.

[Traubert]

27 minutes ago, Peterw42 said:

Consider what is currently happening in the US, the virus is being spread by, as you say, an army of asymptomatic virus-spreaders.

The death rate isnt going up and until recently hospital admission rate was not going up. Healthy young people have been spreading it.

The virus has still been spreading, its only through widespread testing that they know about, Otherwise they would think the same a you, no cases at hospitial, it must be over.

Not really wise to hold the US up as a beacon of Covid-19 efficiency.

[welovesundaysatspace]

3 minutes ago, smedly said:

factor in the massive reduction in road deaths and you might be getting close

What’s the normal number of road deaths so we can deduct it? 

[JCP108]

2 minutes ago, welovesundaysatspace said:

I think you don’t understand what “excess deaths” measures. It’s the difference of recorded deaths (regardless of whatever cause was recorded) vs. average deaths of the past for the same period. So if Thailand had 14,500 unreported Covid deaths, then the number of excess deaths would have to be much higher than 2,400:

 

excess deaths = deaths in T(2020) - average deaths for T(past) 

 

risk of unreported Covid deaths = excess deaths - reported Covid deaths 

Recently, there was this NYT article that talked about excess deaths in various countries including Thailand:

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html

 

They only reported on the month of March for Thailand. But, a deeper look at the data is very interesting.

 

The data for the article is here:

 

https://github.com/nytimes/covid-19-data/tree/master/excess-deaths

 

They apparently got it from the Thailand DOPH data set for total deaths by month (but not by cause). 

 

Interestingly, if you look at the totals for the years 2016, 2017, and 2018 (480,434, 468,911, and 473,540 respectively) then you find a fairly even rate over that time period of a monthly average of 39,524. Because you can see the data in that file for 2019 and the first four months of 2020, one could calculate excess deaths per the DOPH data. Also, since it was reported that there were fewer road accident deaths during the soft lockdown, if you find excess deaths, you would have to adjust for those fewer reported road deaths (as in, add in 6,000 to the excess number). 

 

 

[welovesundaysatspace]

 

Just now, JCP108 said:

Also, since it was reported that there were fewer road accident deaths during the soft lockdown, if you find excess deaths, you would have to adjust for those fewer reported road deaths (as in, add in 6,000 to the excess number). 

 

 

I was looking for that number. Is 6,000 the average number of road deaths for that period? 

[JCP108]

1 minute ago, welovesundaysatspace said:

What’s the normal number of road deaths so we can deduct it? 

Rather than deduct, you would add the reduced road death number to the excess deaths number (since the expected should include the expected road deaths...if there were fewer road deaths but the expected number is still at the expected place or higher, then you add the road death number).

[JCP108]

Just now, welovesundaysatspace said:

 

I was looking for that number. Is 6,000 the average number of road deaths for that period? 

I defer to someone who remembers more clearly. My memory is that someone calculated or reported that there were about 6,000 few deaths this year for road deaths than normal. 

[chilly07]

It must be about reciprocity as Thailand has probably the most beurocratic entry system in the world. Incidentally I think Thailand has developed a high level of immunity to Corona viruses due to past pandemics in SE Asia not excessive beurocracy. However their reaction is probably due to past experiences not a high infection rate

[vermin on arrival]

7 hours ago, lockyv7 said:

almost the bottom of the list when it comes to testing per million population 

 

So is Taiwan.

[welovesundaysatspace]

5 minutes ago, JCP108 said:

Rather than deduct, you would add the reduced road death number to the excess deaths number (since the expected should include the expected road deaths...if there were fewer road deaths but the expected number is still at the expected place or higher, then you add the road death number).

Yes. Or you deduct it from the historical average ????