UK trade deal unlikely for now: Britain, EU clash over post-Brexit ties

[snoop1130]

UK trade deal unlikely for now: Britain, EU clash over post-Brexit ties

By Elizabeth Piper, Gabriela Baczynska

 

FILE PHOTO: European Union chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier and British Prime Minister's Europe adviser David Frost are seen at start of the first round of post -Brexit trade deal talks between the EU and the United Kingdom, in Brussels, Belgium March 2, 2020. Oliver Hoslet/Pool via REUTERS/File Photo

 

LONDON/BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Britain and the European Union clashed on Thursday over the chances of securing a free trade agreement, with Brussels deeming it “unlikely” but London holding out hope one could be reached in September.

 

Since Britain left the bloc in January, talks on the trade agreement and other future ties have all but stalled, with each side accusing the other of failing to compromise before a transition period runs out at the end of this year.

 

Those accusations grew louder after the latest round ended, with the EU’s negotiator Michel Barnier saying London had shown no willingness to break the deadlock and his British counterpart David Frost describing the bloc’s proposals as failing to meet the government’s demand to be treated as an independent country.

 

But both sides agreed on one thing: there had been no movement on the main stumbling blocks to a deal on fair competition guarantees - or the so-called level playing field - or on fisheries.

 

Without a deal to govern future trade flows, some companies fear costly disruption and confusion at the border from next year, which would hit at a time when many are already struggling with the impact of the coronavirus crisis.

 

“By its current refusal to commit to conditions of open and fair competition and to a balanced agreement on fisheries, the UK makes a trade agreement - at this point - unlikely,” Barnier told a news conference.

 

“The time for answers is quickly running out,” he said. “If we do not reach an agreement on our future partnership, there will be more friction.”

 

Frost was equally blunt, saying “considerable gaps” remained but he added: “Despite all the difficulties, on the basis of the work we have done in July, my assessment is that agreement can still be reached in September, and that we should continue to negotiate with this aim in mind.”

 

Senior EU officials say they only expect possible breakthroughs in the talks by the end of August or in September, but some have also expressed concerns that British Prime Minister Boris Johnson might go for a no-deal split.

 

Both sides say they want to secure a trade deal before the end of the status-quo transition, and while being unable to breach the gap in positions on fisheries and competition, both Barnier and Frost noted some progress in some areas, including on governance.

 

“Looking forward, there are large areas of convergence in many of the areas on which we are negotiating and ample precedents and texts on which we can base our work,” said Frost.

 

Barnier also noted some progress this week on how to settle any future disputes over a new EU-UK agreement, an element he has regularly mentioned previously as a key stumbling block together with level playing field clauses and the issue of fisheries.

 

But he added that the EU would not seal an agreement that would damage its fishing industry and noted that the sides were still “far away” from each other with only a few weeks left to go.

 

With Britain pursuing a standalone free trade deal along the lines of one the EU has with Canada and Brussels wanting a wider agreement to take account of Britain’s proximity to the continent, the two sides have a lot of work to do to bridge the gaps.

 

“We will not accept to foot the bill for the UK’s political choices,” Barnier said.

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-07-23

 

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[Logosone]

The old Empire believers who run the UK now never wanted a deal.

 

They just wanted to be rid of awful Europe as fast as possible. So they can go on to be the Superman the world so desperately needs. How's that working out?

[Rookiescot]

The problem is Johnson and his die hard Brexiteers want all the benefits of the single market without having to compromise.

The EU can not accommodate that. Those promises were made by the leave campaign not the EU.

The EU has been absolutely consistent throughout these negotiations. 

The UK can not have its cake and eat it.

What happened to the oven ready deal? Truth is it never existed.

[RayC]

Six months to go until the UK severs links with its biggest trading partner, and the only trade deal of any importance that is likely to be in place post-transition is with Switzerland (and with all due respect to our Swiss friends, it's not that big a deal). Still, nothing to worry, eh? And to think that a Canada-style deal was there for the taking a few years back, but May couldn't get her own party to support it. Never mind, let's blame the EU anyway.

[Loiner]

7 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

“By its current refusal to commit to conditions of open and fair competition and to a balanced agreement on fisheries, the UK makes a trade agreement - at this point - unlikely,” Barnier told a news conference.

Barnier's "open and fair competition" or equally deceitful "level playing field" are both EU doublespeak for tying the UK back to the very rules that contributed to our Brexit.

As if we didn't know, why does Barnier think the little old UK fishing grounds are so important, compared to those massive 27 other nations fish stocks?

 

Well if that's all there is, it's more than just unlikely, so roll on No Deal. Not long to go now.

[metisdead]

Some offensive posts and the replies have been removed.

[flossie35]

3 hours ago, Loiner said:

Barnier's "open and fair competition" or equally deceitful "level playing field" are both EU doublespeak for tying the UK back to the very rules that contributed to our Brexit.

As if we didn't know, why does Barnier think the little old UK fishing grounds are so important, compared to those massive 27 other nations fish stocks?

 

Well if that's all there is, it's more than just unlikely, so roll on No Deal. Not long to go now.

What contributed to brexit was a load of lies from people who still lie every time they speak. What rules do you think the brexiters had in mind? The ones that stop big pharma from overcharging us for medicines? The ones that mean we don't have to eat chlorinated chicken? More likely non-existent ones invented by a so-called journalist to amuse his right-wing readers.

[Logosone]

9 hours ago, RayC said:

Six months to go until the UK severs links with its biggest trading partner, and the only trade deal of any importance that is likely to be in place post-transition is with Switzerland (and with all due respect to our Swiss friends, it's not that big a deal). Still, nothing to worry, eh? And to think that a Canada-style deal was there for the taking a few years back, but May couldn't get her own party to support it. Never mind, let's blame the EU anyway.

The obsession with trade deals is very misplaced anyway.

 

The UK can have all the trade agreements in place that it wants, if it has no deal with the EU countries will do less business with the UK. 

 

South Korea who already has something approaching a trade deal with the UK did make this clear.

 

So having trade deals or not is not the key, having the agreement with the EU is the key for the UK. Economically speaking. As we saw with Boris and Rishi they don't really care that much about the economy.

Edited July 24, 2020 by Logosone

[Chomper Higgot]

‘The easiest deal in history’.

 

 

[JonnyF]

The good news just keeps on flowing ????. So we get a clean Brexit with no ties to the EU. No need to let them deplete our fishing waters, no need to donate 100 Billion to the post Covid wealth transfer scheme, no need to follow their protectionist rules and laws, no ECJ Jurisdiction. No more membership fees. Marvelous.

 

Personally I would withhold the 39 Billion divorce payment as well, since the EU has clearly failed to negotiate in good faith as set out in the political declaration. 

 

Roll on December. Over 4 years of fighting the anti democrats and their shameful propaganda will all have been worth it. Independence at last ✊.

 

 

[Eric Loh]

Will Boris Johnson fold before 31st Dec and ask for an extension so he can continue to negotiate for a soft exit? Will wager that he will swallow his pride and relent. For now it seem quite worrisome for UK economy with no concluded trade deals with US, fall-out with China and not much to show on bilateral trade agreements. 

[kingdong]

6 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

Will Boris Johnson fold before 31st Dec and ask for an extension so he can continue to negotiate for a soft exit? Will wager that he will swallow his pride and relent. For now it seem quite worrisome for UK economy with no concluded trade deals with US, fall-out with China and not much to show on bilateral trade agreements. 

they,ve had 4 years to negotiate with the eu,its obvious they know the implications of us leaving and are making things as difficult as possible for us.

[kingdong]

41 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

‘The easiest deal in history’.

 

 

yeah,we,re leaving,can,t get much simpler than that.

[GuyFawkes]

12 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

Will Boris Johnson fold before 31st Dec and ask for an extension so he can continue to negotiate for a soft exit? Will wager that he will swallow his pride and relent. For now it seem quite worrisome for UK economy with no concluded trade deals with US, fall-out with China and not much to show on bilateral trade agreements. 

In your dreams!

[Eric Loh]

13 minutes ago, kingdong said:

they,ve had 4 years to negotiate with the eu,its obvious they know the implications of us leaving and are making things as difficult as possible for us.

All trade negotiations take years and not surprised with Brexit which is even more complicated and expect to take even longer. Looks like we can expect a hard brexit in the midst of a pandemic and global downturn. Not a good position to be in for Boris.  

[George Aylesham]

11 hours ago, RayC said:

Six months to go until the UK severs links with its biggest trading partner, and the only trade deal of any importance that is likely to be in place post-transition is with Switzerland (and with all due respect to our Swiss friends, it's not that big a deal). Still, nothing to worry, eh? And to think that a Canada-style deal was there for the taking a few years back, but May couldn't get her own party to support it. Never mind, let's blame the EU anyway.

And its becoming clear what a devilishly hard job it will be for British hauliers to transit another EU country without a load of extra paperwork.

[nauseus]

11 hours ago, Rookiescot said:

The problem is Johnson and his die hard Brexiteers want all the benefits of the single market without having to compromise.

The EU can not accommodate that. Those promises were made by the leave campaign not the EU.

The EU has been absolutely consistent throughout these negotiations. 

The UK can not have its cake and eat it.

What happened to the oven ready deal? Truth is it never existed.

The problem is that the EU have been too used to the UK being a member of their "club". 

 

You are still confusing the withdrawal agreement and any future trade deal. 

[nauseus]

2 hours ago, flossie35 said:

What contributed to brexit was a load of lies from people who still lie every time they speak. What rules do you think the brexiters had in mind? The ones that stop big pharma from overcharging us for medicines? The ones that mean we don't have to eat chlorinated chicken? More likely non-existent ones invented by a so-called journalist to amuse his right-wing readers.

Lies, all lies.

[englishoak]

[Logosone]

1 hour ago, JonnyF said:

The good news just keeps on flowing ????. So we get a clean Brexit with no ties to the EU. No need to let them deplete our fishing waters, no need to donate 100 Billion to the post Covid wealth transfer scheme, no need to follow their protectionist rules and laws, no ECJ Jurisdiction. No more membership fees. Marvelous.

 

Personally I would withhold the 39 Billion divorce payment as well, since the EU has clearly failed to negotiate in good faith as set out in the political declaration. 

 

Roll on December. Over 4 years of fighting the anti democrats and their shameful propaganda will all have been worth it. Independence at last ✊.

 

 

No more membership fees, true.  The full panoply of checks and tariffs will be imposed on UK exports to the EU, and cross-border trade in services will face new restrictions, though.

 

If my country were highly dependent on financial services that will soon face new restrictions from a major key market not sure I'd be so chuffed.

 

How many small businesses in the UK do you think now have sufficient margins to absorb the increased costs of doing business with the EU? It will be a catastrophe for them. I doubt they'll be jumping for joy.

 

As we've already seen a no deal Brexit will mean countries like South Korea will do less business with the UK, as their companies like Hyundai make cars in Europe.

 

What do you think this no-Brexit deal will do for Britain's receipts of investment?  After 10 years this no deal Brexit would reduce the UK’s per-capita income by between 3.5% and 8.7%.

 

I think Eric is right, the UK will cave in at midnight. With Covid19 the EU's hand has been strengthened further, the UK is in much deeper trouble if No deal Brexit happens.

 

 

 

 

[Rookiescot]

1 minute ago, Logosone said:

No more membership fees, true.  The full panoply of checks and tariffs will be imposed on UK exports to the EU, and cross-border trade in services will face new restrictions, though.

 

If my country were highly dependent on financial services that will soon face new restrictions from a major key market not sure I'd be so chuffed.

 

How many small businesses in the UK do you think now have sufficient margins to absorb the increased costs of doing business with the EU? It will be a catastrophe for them. I doubt they'll be jumping for joy.

 

As we've already seen a no deal Brexit will mean countries like South Korea will do less business with the UK, as their companies like Hyundai make cars in Europe.

 

What do you think this no-Brexit deal will do for Britain's receipts of investment?  After 10 years this no deal Brexit would reduce the UK’s per-capita income by between 3.5% and 8.7%.

 

I think Eric is right, the UK will cave in at midnight. With Covid19 the EU's hand has been strengthened further, the UK is in much deeper trouble if No deal Brexit happens.

 

 

 

 

Everything you say is true but Johnson will not cave in. He cant.

The ERG and other right wing groups now control the Conservative party. He would be gone and replaced with Gove or Reese Mogg within hours.

That and the lynch mob of die hard Brexiteers waiting to assemble outside number 10 prevents him from even thinking about it. 

[Peterphuket]

Better times are coming after that stupid membership of the EU, believe me.

[Baerboxer]

12 hours ago, Rookiescot said:

The problem is Johnson and his die hard Brexiteers want all the benefits of the single market without having to compromise.

The EU can not accommodate that. Those promises were made by the leave campaign not the EU.

The EU has been absolutely consistent throughout these negotiations. 

The UK can not have its cake and eat it.

What happened to the oven ready deal? Truth is it never existed.

 

Have its cake and eat it - seems like that's what the EU negotiators thought they'd get too.

 

ECJ to rule; fish as the want; demand UK tax must be at levels they approve off and rules they approve of (guess they forgot about Luxembourg, Ireland etc). 

 

The chances of a "deal" that everyone was happy with has always been about zero. 27 jealous member states all self interested, and the one with the balls to leave, also self interested, all squabbling to get what they want, plus something for nothing, and keep political face.

 

About as realistic as the pretend democracy in the EU.

[Proboscis]

1 hour ago, JonnyF said:

The good news just keeps on flowing ????. So we get a clean Brexit with no ties to the EU. No need to let them deplete our fishing waters, no need to donate 100 Billion to the post Covid wealth transfer scheme, no need to follow their protectionist rules and laws, no ECJ Jurisdiction. No more membership fees. Marvelous.

 

Personally I would withhold the 39 Billion divorce payment as well, since the EU has clearly failed to negotiate in good faith as set out in the political declaration. 

 

Roll on December. Over 4 years of fighting the anti democrats and their shameful propaganda will all have been worth it. Independence at last ✊.

 

 

Not having a dog in this fight, I would very much warn against the idea of withholding money that has already been agreed upon. The level of retaliation that the EU could visit on the UK would be huge. Probably the only country that would come to the UK's aid would be Ireland, given its geographic location and the fear that the huge unemployment in the UK would lead to migration that would swamp the island of Ireland (there is a special international agreement on freedom of movement between UK and Ireland that predates the EU and it would not take more than a few hundred thousand to swamp Ireland with a population of 4.3 million). Not just Scotland but every other part of the UK would be looking for ways of getting out of the hardest of Brexits that would involve - the unemployment would be huge and made even worse by Covid-19 and its aftermath. If you ever wanted to unravel Brexit, that would be the way to go - the economic devastation would create a movement to scrap the hard Brexit and either rejoin or go the way of Norway.

 

The best bet to keep the UK running under an agreed Brexit agreement, not necessarily at the level it could have if it had not left but at a decent level, would be to agree a system of policing the free trade agreement and come to a compromise on fishing. Most of the fish caught in British waters the British don't eat by choice!

 

It is sad to see a once proud country running itself into the ground like this. Churchill must be turning in his grave.

 

[Baerboxer]

7 hours ago, Loiner said:

Barnier's "open and fair competition" or equally deceitful "level playing field" are both EU doublespeak for tying the UK back to the very rules that contributed to our Brexit.

As if we didn't know, why does Barnier think the little old UK fishing grounds are so important, compared to those massive 27 other nations fish stocks?

 

Well if that's all there is, it's more than just unlikely, so roll on No Deal. Not long to go now.

 

Barnier is a Macron puppet; previously known for being anti British. 

 

He knows Macron must be seen to win on fishing rights or the French fishing sector, supported by others like the farmers etc, will revolt, protest and riot. Covid has been a big help to Macron in preventing the protests against his regime. However, if Barnier conceded on fishing, la <deleted> would really hit the fan.

 

It's all about the politics. France now believes that without the UK, Germany's position is weaker and that France can become the main force within the EU. Nothing will be allowed by France to prevent that.

[nauseus]

2 minutes ago, Proboscis said:

Not having a dog in this fight, I would very much warn against the idea of withholding money that has already been agreed upon. The level of retaliation that the EU could visit on the UK would be huge. Probably the only country that would come to the UK's aid would be Ireland, given its geographic location and the fear that the huge unemployment in the UK would lead to migration that would swamp the island of Ireland (there is a special international agreement on freedom of movement between UK and Ireland that predates the EU and it would not take more than a few hundred thousand to swamp Ireland with a population of 4.3 million). Not just Scotland but every other part of the UK would be looking for ways of getting out of the hardest of Brexits that would involve - the unemployment would be huge and made even worse by Covid-19 and its aftermath. If you ever wanted to unravel Brexit, that would be the way to go - the economic devastation would create a movement to scrap the hard Brexit and either rejoin or go the way of Norway.

 

The best bet to keep the UK running under an agreed Brexit agreement, not necessarily at the level it could have if it had not left but at a decent level, would be to agree a system of policing the free trade agreement and come to a compromise on fishing. Most of the fish caught in British waters the British don't eat by choice!

 

It is sad to see a once proud country running itself into the ground like this. Churchill must be turning in his grave.

 

Poor old Winston has probably been doing that since 1973.

[nauseus]

2 minutes ago, Baerboxer said:

 

Barnier is a Macron puppet; previously known for being anti British. 

 

He knows Macron must be seen to win on fishing rights or the French fishing sector, supported by others like the farmers etc, will revolt, protest and riot. Covid has been a big help to Macron in preventing the protests against his regime. However, if Barnier conceded on fishing, la <deleted> would really hit the fan.

 

It's all about the politics. France now believes that without the UK, Germany's position is weaker and that France can become the main force within the EU. Nothing will be allowed by France to prevent that.

Actually, within the EU, I think Germany has become even stronger since the referendum. The fishing issue is more critical for France but if there is to be a deal then I think Mutti will call the shots, as she always does. If Merkel supports France and demands significant continued fishing access, then there may be no deal at all but in that case then German industrial exports will droop and she won't want unrest at home, either.

 

That said, I still think there will be some kind of deal, mainly because it is better for all parties to have one.   

[Proboscis]

1 minute ago, nauseus said:

Actually, within the EU, I think Germany has become even stronger since the referendum. The fishing issue is more critical for France but if there is to be a deal then I think Mutti will call the shots, as she always does. If Merkel supports France and demands significant continued fishing access, then there may be no deal at all but in that case then German industrial exports will droop and she won't want unrest at home, either.

 

That said, I still think there will be some kind of deal, mainly because it is better for all parties to have one.   

I am surprised how little people know. The biggest exploiting of fishing within the EU are the Spanish, not the French. Outside the EU, it is a toss-up between the Russians and the Chinese.

[Logosone]

1 hour ago, Rookiescot said:

Everything you say is true but Johnson will not cave in. He cant.

The ERG and other right wing groups now control the Conservative party. He would be gone and replaced with Gove or Reese Mogg within hours.

That and the lynch mob of die hard Brexiteers waiting to assemble outside number 10 prevents him from even thinking about it. 

It could be that Johnsons very strong nationalism gets the better of him and his immediate circle.

 

It will be interesting to see. However if Johnson values the economy of the UK he may well cave in at the end. It's not like Brexit would not happen, he'd just have a deal that would benefit the ailing UK economy.

 

But yes, you're right, we'll have to see if Johnson can overcome his nationalism and ideological preferences in favour of doing his job.

[nauseus]

29 minutes ago, Proboscis said:

I am surprised how little people know. The biggest exploiting of fishing within the EU are the Spanish, not the French. Outside the EU, it is a toss-up between the Russians and the Chinese.

Agree. The Spanish are also pretty bad off Africa. Very wasteful.

 

But I was not referring so much to exploitation but more to influence within the EU, which Spain has much less of than France.

Edited July 24, 2020 by nauseus