UK minister surprised by Scottish independence referendum move

[nauseus]

1 minute ago, robblok said:

They left the EU.. did they not.. that wont change all they do now is decide how. Same will be done once the Scots and others break free from the UK. First there will be a decision to break free.. then later on what terms. 

It was dead easy...right.

[robblok]

1 minute ago, nauseus said:

It was dead easy...right.

The decision was.. the negotiations are not.  The Brits still think they have some power. In this case they are the ones that have to accept the rules if they want to access the EU. 

 

I can understand the UK point on fishing. But if they want to access the one market they must agree to accept the EU rules or not get access. Would be unfair if lets say the Brits would subsidies something that the EU can't. Then you get unfair competition.  So I can't see the EU budging on that one.

[RuamRudy]

2 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

 

The problem with all referendums is that they over simplify what is usually a complex issue, ie, they are rather reductive and binary in nature.  To dismiss issues such as the probable loss of the islands as scaremongering is simply negligent- it's a real issue. 

To describe the suggestion of the seceding of Shetlands and Orkneys as 'probable' is either disingenuous or indicative of a total lack of understanding about what you speak, both in terms of intent and legality.

 

Yesterday, on cue, the BBC trotted out the oft repeated story of RAF jets chasing away Russian bombers from the NE of Scotland - as sure as eggs are eggs, whenever independence is on its uppers, the media bombard us with scare stories about Shetland, Russia and numerous other contrived and made up nonsense. Don't allow yourself to fall for it, or do you genuinely think that the gentleman from Suffolk has managed to generate a groundswell of local support and that he will be elected potentate of the republic of Shetlands?

 

9 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

There is no reason why an independent Scotland is not possible, sure, but things don't seem to be running too smoothly north of the border even now, which is largely the result of global conditions. Up til now, a point of unification is to blame the English.  What happens when that prop goes?

Explain more - what is not going to well, in relative terms? Please also give examples of these issues are blamed on the English? Only when you elaborate might I be able to address your final point. 

 

10 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

As I have said, I believe that sooner or later independence is something that is going to happen, but it's going to be a painful rebirth for sure, and for England too.  I suppose it's up to the Scots whether they want that pain now or later.  Personally, I see no sense in delay, yet one must prepare, and be under no illusions.

On this, I agree. Something like 75% of those under 30 support independence. The only demographic with majority support for the union is those over 55. I prefer the pain up front - Brexit is going to be a disaster for Scotland; let's take the hit all at once. 

[RuamRudy]

11 minutes ago, nauseus said:

It was dead easy...right.

Maybe we stop Brexit in its tracks and reverse everything, now that we can see how painful the separation is, and how unappealing the post Brexit future is?

[mommysboy]

3 minutes ago, robblok said:

The decision was.. the negotiations are not.  The Brits still think they have some power. In this case they are the ones that have to accept the rules if they want to access the EU. 

 

I can understand the UK point on fishing. But if they want to access the one market they must agree to accept the EU rules or not get access. Would be unfair if lets say the Brits would subsidies something that the EU can't. Then you get unfair competition.  So I can't see the EU budging on that one.

I didn't want Brexit.  However, now that it has happened I am convinced that the only solution is for the UK (England anyway) to be totally independent.  I'm not keen on any sort of trade deal with the EU, Scotland, USA or anyone else for that matter.  If the EU wants to erect barriers to free trade that's their decision.  The same goes for Scotland really.  It's not about who has more power over the other.  It's about whether you want to freely trade or not.  

[robblok]

2 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

I didn't want Brexit.  However, now that it has happened I am convinced that the only solution is for the UK (England anyway) to be totally independent.  I'm not keen on any sort of trade deal with the EU, Scotland, USA or anyone else for that matter.  If the EU wants to erect barriers to free trade that's their decision.  The same goes for Scotland really.  It's not about who has more power over the other.  It's about whether you want to freely trade or not.  

True, but it would be bad for the Brits and to a lesser extend the EU if they can't agree on the trade deal.

 

However the EU will never budge on a level playing field. Only a fool would think otherwise. I also totally agree with the EU on that one. I actually totally agree on any country that wants a level playing field for trade. 

 

Just imagine if steel is being subsidized then one country could get a large market share on unfair conditions. That way you would destroy your own economy. The EU would not accept that and should not. Either the Brits bend or they break. 

 

Will be a greater loss for the UK then EU. 

 

Fishing, i get that the Brits want to protect that and the French should shut up. 

[robblok]

11 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

Maybe we stop Brexit in its tracks and reverse everything, now that we can see how painful the separation is, and how unappealing the post Brexit future is?

Unfortunately that wont happen. 

[nauseus]

13 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

Maybe we stop Brexit in its tracks and reverse everything, now that we can see how painful the separation is, and how unappealing the post Brexit future is?

I think I heard something similar a few years back, with Hotel California playing in the background.

[Greyhat]

Hasn't the EU said they wouldn't accept an independent Scotland? The membership requirements aren't met. Even if they could rejoin the rules to join would be strict and it wouldn't happen over night, I assume the UK will have to pay to sustain Scotland while they wait to enter the EU. Also, the irony of "Independence" but under the thumb of the EU isn't lost on me.

[mommysboy]

4 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

To describe the suggestion of the seceding of Shetlands and Orkneys as 'probable' is either disingenuous or indicative of a total lack of understanding about what you speak, both in terms of intent and legality.

 

Yesterday, on cue, the BBC trotted out the oft repeated story of RAF jets chasing away Russian bombers from the NE of Scotland - as sure as eggs are eggs, whenever independence is on its uppers, the media bombard us with scare stories about Shetland, Russia and numerous other contrived and made up nonsense. Don't allow yourself to fall for it, or do you genuinely think that the gentleman from Suffolk has managed to generate a groundswell of local support and that he will be elected potentate of the republic of Shetlands?

 

Explain more - what is not going to well, in relative terms? Please also give examples of these issues are blamed on the English? Only when you elaborate might I be able to address your final point. 

 

On this, I agree. Something like 75% of those under 30 support independence. The only demographic with majority support for the union is those over 55. I prefer the pain up front - Brexit is going to be a disaster for Scotland; let's take the hit all at once. 

 

 

Well, it's not being disingenuous, so I will frankly concede that it is possibly a lack of understanding.  Actually, to be totally honest I don't much care.

 

Yes I agree, this is something that is going to happen, it's going to be nasty sooner or later, and I would prefer sooner.  I'm backing an independent England personally- pragma as much as anything else.

 

 

[nauseus]

20 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

To describe the suggestion of the seceding of Shetlands and Orkneys as 'probable' is either disingenuous or indicative of a total lack of understanding about what you speak, both in terms of intent and legality.

 

Yesterday, on cue, the BBC trotted out the oft repeated story of RAF jets chasing away Russian bombers from the NE of Scotland - as sure as eggs are eggs, whenever independence is on its uppers, the media bombard us with scare stories about Shetland, Russia and numerous other contrived and made up nonsense. Don't allow yourself to fall for it, or do you genuinely think that the gentleman from Suffolk has managed to generate a groundswell of local support and that he will be elected potentate of the republic of Shetlands?

 

Explain more - what is not going to well, in relative terms? Please also give examples of these issues are blamed on the English? Only when you elaborate might I be able to address your final point. 

 

On this, I agree. Something like 75% of those under 30 support independence. The only demographic with majority support for the union is those over 55. I prefer the pain up front - Brexit is going to be a disaster for Scotland; let's take the hit all at once. 

What has the RAF got to do with this? And there's you talking about scare stories. ????

[mommysboy]

4 minutes ago, robblok said:

True, but it would be bad for the Brits and to a lesser extend the EU if they can't agree on the trade deal.

 

However the EU will never budge on a level playing field. Only a fool would think otherwise. I also totally agree with the EU on that one. I actually totally agree on any country that wants a level playing field for trade. 

 

Just imagine if steel is being subsidized then one country could get a large market share on unfair conditions. That way you would destroy your own economy. The EU would not accept that and should not. Either the Brits bend or they break. 

 

Will be a greater loss for the UK then EU. 

 

Fishing, i get that the Brits want to protect that and the French should shut up. 

 

Yes, it's an impossible situation imo.  And that's why I prefer no trade deal whatsoever.

 

It's not an issue of bend or break.  It's simply an issue of trade freely with the EU or someone else.

 

I'm not sure the whole lot of us are not in the mire due to covid anyway, so Brexit is now small beer now.  If the EU wants to impose trade barriers no problem.  If the EU wants a border in Ireland, well get Ireland to put one up.

 

And pretty much this applies to my attitude towards Scotland too.

 

 

 

 

[nauseus]

6 minutes ago, Greyhat said:

Hasn't the EU said they wouldn't accept an independent Scotland? The membership requirements aren't met. Even if they could rejoin the rules to join would be strict and it wouldn't happen over night, I assume the UK will have to pay to sustain Scotland while they wait to enter the EU. Also, the irony of "Independence" but under the thumb of the EU isn't lost on me.

I don't think that they have said in so many words. But I bet they would encourage the idea, even if they refused them later.

 

If Scotland chooses to split from the UK, then I don't see why the remnants of it (UK) should have to 'sustain' Scotland in any way.

[robblok]

Just now, mommysboy said:

 

Yes, it's an impossible situation imo.  And that's why I prefer no trade deal whatsoever.

 

It's not an issue of bend or break.  It's simply an issue of trade freely with the EU or someone else.

 

I'm not sure the whole lot of us are not in the mire due to covid anyway, so Brexit is now small beer now.  If the EU wants to impose trade barriers no problem.  If the EU wants a border in Ireland, well get Ireland to put one up.

 

And pretty much this applies to my attitude towards Scotland too.

 

 

 

 

My attitude to Ireland and Scotland is simple. They voted to stay expecting to stay in the EU. That changed and is a major change. So they should have an other chance to vote again. If they want to leave so be it let them leave its their good right.

[robblok]

Just now, nauseus said:

I don't think that they have said in so many words. But I bet they would encourage the idea, even if they refused them later.

 

If Scotland chooses to split from the UK, then I don't see why the remnants of it (UK) should have to 'sustain' Scotland in any way.

Of course not if they break away they are on their own. I don't see why the UK would have to keep spending taxes on them. If they go they have to fend for themselves. Fair is fair they can't have it both ways.

 

But its about their right to get out of the union, the terms will always be hard. Like it was easy to get out of the EU but the terms are a bit harder to settle. But I think that if the Scots do want to leave they should vote on what terms why want to leave. Something they should have done for Brexit too. Would have been a much better vote (now there was too limited data)

 

I mean not every Scot that wants to leave the union wants it at all cost. There should be a clear idea of what to expect.

 

 

[nauseus]

2 minutes ago, robblok said:

Of course not if they break away they are on their own. I don't see why the UK would have to keep spending taxes on them. If they go they have to fend for themselves. Fair is fair they can't have it both ways.

 

But its about their right to get out of the union, the terms will always be hard. Like it was easy to get out of the EU but the terms are a bit harder to settle. But I think that if the Scots do want to leave they should vote on what terms why want to leave. Something they should have done for Brexit too. Would have been a much better vote (now there was too limited data)

 

I mean not every Scot that wants to leave the union wants it at all cost. There should be a clear idea of what to expect.

 

 

Yes. The British people should have been given a clear idea of what to expect in 1972 as well.  

[mommysboy]

2 minutes ago, robblok said:

My attitude to Ireland and Scotland is simple. They voted to stay expecting to stay in the EU. That changed and is a major change. So they should have an other chance to vote again. If they want to leave so be it let them leave its their good right.

Well, no, they voted to stay in the UK first and foremost.  Coming out of the EU was not a UK constitutional change.

 

But, yes broadly I agree it's really about whether they want independence or not.  However I would say that a vote on independence is somewhat paradoxical if the main focus is about whether to remain dependent on the UK, or become dependent on the EU.  One would hope that a vote for independence would be just that, but generally the Scots don't seem to get that point imo.

[RuamRudy]

20 minutes ago, Greyhat said:

Hasn't the EU said they wouldn't accept an independent Scotland? 

No

 

20 minutes ago, Greyhat said:

The membership requirements aren't met.

We were in the EU until recently pulled out against our will. Compliance is not going to be the challenge other aspirant countries face. 

 

21 minutes ago, Greyhat said:

Even if they could rejoin the rules to join would be strict and it wouldn't happen over night,

And?

 

22 minutes ago, Greyhat said:

I assume the UK will have to pay to sustain Scotland while they wait to enter the EU.

Why do you assume that? You do understand what 'independence' means, don't you?

 

23 minutes ago, Greyhat said:

Also, the irony of "Independence" but under the thumb of the EU isn't lost on me.

The irony of suggestions that the EU, which the UK left based upon a unilateral decision, is somehow more restrictive when the UK, where the Scottish government needs permission from the government of another country to hold our own referendum, is not lost on me. 

[RuamRudy]

26 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

 

 

Well, it's not being disingenuous, so I will frankly concede that it is possibly a lack of understanding.  Actually, to be totally honest I don't much care.

 

Yes I agree, this is something that is going to happen, it's going to be nasty sooner or later, and I would prefer sooner.  I'm backing an independent England personally- pragma as much as anything else.

 

 

I genuinely don't think it will be nasty. The mood of independence supporters is genuinely upbeat and positive; you read in the papers about the twitter spats, but these are a small number of people on both sides of the debate. The majority are courteous and inclusive; any rancour is reserved for trading insults with equally offensive unionists. 

 

But beyond the social media bubble, most people don't speak about independence. There is no division in communities as far as I can see; some of my oldest friends support the union, some are staunchly in favour of independence, and some are a closed book on that subject. Regardless, it rarely comes into every day life and I think that day 1 will be little different to day -1. 

 

  

[RuamRudy]

26 minutes ago, nauseus said:

What has the RAF got to do with this? And there's you talking about scare stories. ????

Because, as we experienced in 2014, again last month and even this week, whenever their is an increase in support for independence, we get a raft of stories designed to make us question whether we could feasibly take care of ourselves without the broad shoulders of the union. The RAF intercepting Russian jets off the coast of Scotland is a regular favourite. 

 

Russian jets intercepted off north-east Scotland

[mommysboy]

4 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

I genuinely don't think it will be nasty. The mood of independence supporters is genuinely upbeat and positive; you read in the papers about the twitter spats, but these are a small number of people on both sides of the debate. The majority are courteous and inclusive; any rancour is reserved for trading insults with equally offensive unionists. 

 

But beyond the social media bubble, most people don't speak about independence. There is no division in communities as far as I can see; some of my oldest friends support the union, some are staunchly in favour of independence, and some are a closed book on that subject. Regardless, it rarely comes into every day life and I think that day 1 will be little different to day -1. 

 

  

It's been much the same with Brexit, in England anyway.

 

I meant nasty more in terms of financial hardship, both for Scotland and England.  Pain does come with independence, and it's usually a hard road for a decade or longer.  Then there are a couple of quite difficult cultural issues, such as a hard border, loss of UK passport, the pound, etc.  As with any separation there is emotional pain.

 

And then there are the unintended consequences, eg, UK leaves EU, but then Scotland, Ireland, and Wales leaves the UK. Personally, I don't think it will stop there. It's not scaremongering to suggest Scotland will have to give up something it holds dear- this is life!  This is what happens in break ups.  

Edited October 16, 2020 by mommysboy

[RuamRudy]

26 minutes ago, nauseus said:

If Scotland chooses to split from the UK, then I don't see why the remnants of it (UK) should have to 'sustain' Scotland in any way.

Fully agreed - but of course, independence means just that. Likewise, Scotland will no longer subsidise the remnants of the UK in the manner it has done for far too long. 

[JonnyF]

40 minutes ago, Greyhat said:

Hasn't the EU said they wouldn't accept an independent Scotland? The membership requirements aren't met. Even if they could rejoin the rules to join would be strict and it wouldn't happen over night, I assume the UK will have to pay to sustain Scotland while they wait to enter the EU. Also, the irony of "Independence" but under the thumb of the EU isn't lost on me.

I suspect the EU will support an independent Scotland and make all the right noises about Scotland joining the EU to encourage the breakup of the UK as 'punishment' for leaving their protectionist racket.

 

Once Scotland is out of the UK they will change their tune and create horrendous criteria that the Scots will have to meet in order to join the EU. Much as they made all the right noises about a trade deal while the WA was being agreed. Once that was signed, they started making ridiculous demands for that trade deal.

 

Scotland will get screwed over by the EU's outlandish demands if they want the EU to disregard their own rules to allow them to join. If they 'succeed' in joining, Independent they will most certainly not be. 

[nauseus]

9 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

Because, as we experienced in 2014, again last month and even this week, whenever their is an increase in support for independence, we get a raft of stories designed to make us question whether we could feasibly take care of ourselves without the broad shoulders of the union. The RAF intercepting Russian jets off the coast of Scotland is a regular favourite. 

 

Russian jets intercepted off north-east Scotland

Gawd, this happens far more frequently than the number of reports and has been for decades. Move on.  

[RuamRudy]

4 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

It's been much the same with Brexit, in England anyway.

 

I meant nasty more in terms of financial hardship, both for Scotland and England.  Pain does come with independence, and it's usually a hard road for a decade or longer.  Then there are a couple of quite difficult cultural issues, such as a hard border, loss of UK passport, the pound, etc.  As with any separation there is emotional pain.

I think what is important is that we learn from the fiasco of the Brexit negotiations. Negotiations have to start with an acceptance of the separation, and have sensible grown ups thrash out a deal that is fair and pragmatic for both parties. While it is true that England is Scotland's biggest trading partner, conversely Scotland is England's second biggest trading partner so it is in neither sides' interest to become belligerent and awkward. We may not want governed by London but that doesn't mean that we cannot be supportive partners.

[RuamRudy]

Just now, nauseus said:

Gawd, this happens far more frequently than the number of reports and has been for decades. Move on.  

Look up - that is not a Russian jet flying over your head, it is the point. 

[RuamRudy]

2 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

I suspect the EU will support an independent Scotland and make all the right noises about Scotland joining the EU to encourage the breakup of the UK as 'punishment' for leaving their protectionist racket.

 

Once Scotland is out of the UK they will change their tune and create horrendous criteria that the Scots will have to meet in order to join the EU. Much as they made all the right noises about a trade deal while the WA was being agreed. Once that was signed, they started making ridiculous demands for that trade deal.

 

Scotland will get screwed over by the EU's outlandish demands if they want the EU to disregard their own rules to allow them to join. If they 'succeed' in joining, Independent they will most certainly not be. 

Did you not also predict that the Brexit negotiations would be a walk in the park, and that other countries would be lining up to sign lucrative, superior trade deals to those we enjoyed when within the EU?

[mommysboy]

1 minute ago, RuamRudy said:

I think what is important is that we learn from the fiasco of the Brexit negotiations. Negotiations have to start with an acceptance of the separation, and have sensible grown ups thrash out a deal that is fair and pragmatic for both parties. While it is true that England is Scotland's biggest trading partner, conversely Scotland is England's second biggest trading partner so it is in neither sides' interest to become belligerent and awkward. We may not want governed by London but that doesn't mean that we cannot be supportive partners.

Fine words but just that!

[nauseus]

6 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

Look up - that is not a Russian jet flying over your head, it is the point. 

Must be Superman then.

[robblok]

37 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

Well, no, they voted to stay in the UK first and foremost.  Coming out of the EU was not a UK constitutional change.

 

But, yes broadly I agree it's really about whether they want independence or not.  However I would say that a vote on independence is somewhat paradoxical if the main focus is about whether to remain dependent on the UK, or become dependent on the EU.  One would hope that a vote for independence would be just that, but generally the Scots don't seem to get that point imo.

People seem to think the EU has a lot of influence, its mainly about trade and stuff. So they would be largely independent more so as now. Its stupid of any country (England included) to try to do it on your own when most trade blocks are more powerful then you.

 

So its only logical that the Scots and Irish would go for the EU.