600 facing quarantine after Thailand’s first locally-acquired COVID infection for 100 days

[Miami007]

1 hour ago, Brunolem said:

Not before November 3rd...at the earliest...

Seriously doubt that the Thai government cares that much about the US election

[vermin on arrival]

11 minutes ago, edwardandtubs said:

It's actually complete nonsense that this or any virus would spread through the entire human population. That isn't the way any virus works. It appears the herd immunity threshold for Covid-19 is about 20% which is where places like Stockholm, New York and London got to before tailing off.

I think he meant after its run its course through societies rather than with everyone getting infected. Certainly it does appear after 20% have antibodies the rate of infection goes way down. This 20% doesn't include all those who have t-cell (probably another 30%) or other forms of immunity to the disease.

[RocketDog]

6 hours ago, Jurg said:

Some people here in this forum seem to make fun or a joke out of this possible local Covid19 transmission recently here in Thailand.

I wish to make those people aware of the second wave in Melbourne Victoria Australia very recently , authorities failed to detect a major failure in their quarantine proceedures, resulting into a Stage 4 Lockdown for millions of people again. Additionally a massively prolonged State border closure to prevent the virus spreading into other States too. Hundreds of death with Covid19 recorded in Victoria. They are talking of some 100 billion dollars additional costs in their economy due to this latest Lockdown.

 

How would you feel being back in that scenario again? 

 

Covid19 infections are not a joke, but utter disaster if not very quickly brought under control.

Posts like this article and replies on TVF are only useful for entertainment purposes. 

Like so many topics these days such as climate change and Trump politics most folks have taken a hardened stance and will not change it. Many people surely relish the conflict. 

Any new findings on one side of the discussion are immediately denied, dismissed, ridiculed or labeled as fake news by those on the other side. 

While I don't doubt your sincerity you should understand that you are just supplying fuel for their ire and your efforts are futile and unappreciated. 

Choose your path judiciously, evaluate it regularly, and follow it; don't try to teach a pig to sing. It wastes your time and annoys the pig. 

[vermin on arrival]

3 hours ago, chang1 said:

To me this is the discussion that should be given far more exposure, especially within governments. Not just in connection with covid19, it would help with much of what government's deal with. How much is a human life worth? Does it change for sick, elderly or for those with problems that are partially self inflicted through drug abuse such as tobacco or alcohol etc.? How would chronic injuries be factored in that were acquired during recreation like sports? Are high achievers worth more than those on benefits? Obviously I think my life is worth more than everyone else's in the world combined - some others may disagree. 

This discussion is had all over the world in places like hospitals and by people designing things, such as roads or cars, and standards but there is no consistency or formula due to it being so contentious. No-one likes to hear they are worth less than someone else or that they are too expensive to be prioritised. 

Each country could have its own scale - maybe useful when deciding where to retire. I would expect Thailand to value Thai hiso's a tad higher than a retired factory worker from Bolton but not so much in the UK. 

For covid19,  you then have to factor in vaccines and improvements in treatments, both of which can only be guessed. Next how will covid19 evolve? Will it get stronger or die away? More guesswork. It is then simple to decide how much your strategy should cost and where to concentrate the effort. Some tweaking may be needed for industries like tourism where a ridiculously low covid death rate may be preferred to a reasonable death rate on the roads. 

You talk about a billion dollars per covid death then a billion to prevent your covid death. These are 2 totally different things that you are confusing. The billion dollars are not spent on each of those that died, they are spent on preventing many more deaths - possibly including yours, if it stopped someone spreading it in your direction. A few billion spent in Wuhan early on, may have been a good investment (instead of silencing the doctor who warned us about it - f'''ing CCP). Per death it may have been very expensive but it may have saved hundreds of thousands lives and saved the rest of the world trillions of dollars. 

Another thought - if covid19 is like a bad flue, should we be doing more to stop the spread of flue? Just think how many more valuable lives could be saved! Then, what about road deaths, alcohol deaths, smoking... Maybe we should all be wrapped up in cotton wool and never move again - but then would that be unhealthy and who will risk their life to bring me food?

Fair points. I am glad my post stimulated such a thoughtful post from another forum member. Thank you : )

[vermin on arrival]

44 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

I think the Europeans are over the hysteria and the media is starting to follow in an attempt to try and remain relevant for me the news lost relevance when I changed the channel on the TV and the same stories were running at the same time,that was about 45 years ago.Here's a story running in Oz today.

 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-05/why-europe-has-not-locked-down-despite-covid-19-second-wave/12623804

Good article. Why lockdown society when only 6% of hospital beds earmarked for the treatment of patients with the disease are in use? Very interesting/scary  to see them using a helicopter with thermal scanning to identify a party in the UK.

[FarFlungFalang]

37 minutes ago, edwardandtubs said:

I'm pretty sure 600 people aren't going into quarantine. They're probably just being asked to self isolate.

Well that's what the headline of this thread says so it must be true?The headline isn't "600 people are just being asked to self isolate".

[FarFlungFalang]

1 hour ago, edwardandtubs said:

It's actually complete nonsense that this or any virus would spread through the entire human population. That isn't the way any virus works. It appears the herd immunity threshold for Covid-19 is about 20% which is where places like Stockholm, New York and London got to before tailing off.

I maintain that it will spread through the entire population I didn't say that every human would be exposed or infected by it and the main point I'm making is that it will go away as you've so rightly said,but thanks for the reply.

Edited September 5, 2020 by FarFlungFalang

[Sheryl]

6 hours ago, papa al said:

I see what you are saying Sheryl.

Thanks for your reference; I will study it.

Report in one journal is just that.

Reports vary.

The journals are not immune to politics.

Will try to retrieve references for you later.

One problem with verifying these PCR tests

is that there is no gold-standard to compare to.

PCR testing is tricky and assumes a lot.

/////  

It has been estimated that there are over 380 trillion viruses inhabiting a human, a community collectively known as the humanvirome. 

///// 

...So they know for sure that

none of the normal 380,000,000,000,000 virions

could illicit a false pos?

Are you sure Sheryl?

 

 

 

Yes, they know this for sure as the genetic structure of each virus is unique.

[Seeall]

9 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

Sorry to burst the bubble of the panic mongering Zombie Apocalypse crowd, but one case does not represent "the reappearance of Covid in Thailand". It is less than a pimple on the cheek of a teenager. It will be easily managed. Now, if hundreds or thousands of new cases were to appear, that would be a concern. This is not. Not on any level. 

I guess we will never know....

[edwardandtubs]

45 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

Well that's what the headline of this thread says so it must be true?The headline isn't "600 people are just being asked to self isolate".

It's just the Thai media getting their terminology mixed up. 

[Sheryl]

1 hour ago, vermin on arrival said:

I think he meant after its run its course through societies rather than with everyone getting infected. Certainly it does appear after 20% have antibodies the rate of infection goes way down. This 20% doesn't include all those who have t-cell (probably another 30%) or other forms of immunity to the disease.

 

I don't know where you get that from but  there is ample evidence to the contrary

 

50% infection rate documented in urban slums in India a month ago and cases atill rising there.

 

80% infection rate documented in US meat packing plants.

 

Plenty of evidence that the virus can continue to infect well past the 20% mark.

 

Indeed hard to imagine how/why just 20% would be sufficient. Usual requirement for herd immunity is 60-80%.

 

What is true is that we do not know what percent of any patticular population is susceptible to the virus in the first place (given the possibility of cross-immunity from.prior corona virus infections).   

 

The percent susceptible will certainly not be the same everywhere, wide variation from place to place is likely. There may also be variation over time i.e  people who have cross-immunity may not retain it forever.

[RubbaJohnny]

On 9/4/2020 at 3:48 PM, Cake Monster said:

A good question indeed.

Is the Virus among us at  all times, and this guy was only found to be Positive due to a Policy of testing all people who are about to enter Prison.

Or, has he been in contact with a " Super Spreader " who is still walking the Streets completely unaware that they are the source.

Or, is the Virus in the Sewage system of Bangkok

All these possibilities, and more need to be investigated, and quickly.

I suppose we will now see how good the Thai Authorities really are at dealing with these situations. With 600 people having to enter State Quarantine, this will be a good practice session for the return of Tourists.

My pal DJ Pat Pong says that area and soi Indio,Banana place and  Pell Met Hotel are notorious for superspreaderz

[Flying Saucage]

3 minutes ago, Sheryl said:

 

I don't know where you get that from but  there is ample evidence to the contrary

 

50% infection rate documented in urban slums in India a month ago and cases atill rising there.

 

80% infection rate documented in US meat packing plants.

 

Plenty of evidence that the virus can continue to infect well past the 20% mark.

 

Indeed hard to imagine how/why just 20% would be sufficient. Usual requirement for herd immunity is 60-80%.

 

What is true is that we do not know what percent of any patticular population is susceptible to the virus in the first place (given the possibility of cross-immunity from.prior corona virus infections).   

 

The percent susceptible will certainly not be the same everywhere, wide variation from place to place is likely. There may also be variation over time i.e  people who have cross-immunity may not retain it forever.

I think this is a (very dynamic) mathematical process.

 

When R0 is estimated to be 3, one person infects in average 3 others. This, means that (if no one changes its behaviour and no one practices social distancing) when 2/3 of the population are immune already due to having had the infection already, this one person in average will infect only 1 other person anymore, because the 2 other are (statistically) immune already. This forces R0 down to 1, and quickly less. Then herd immunity is happening.

 

However, as this is a highly dynamic process, if you put 100 people together in a meat packing plant under ideal conditions for the virus, R0 will be much higher immediately on the one hand. Lets say it becomes 10 in this closed environmant due to any lack of social distancing and high concentrations of exhaled aerosoles. And, as on the other hand no other people are immune yet during at least the first 14 days, much higher infections rates than 70% are easy to get. Especially with Covid and it's realtively long incubation period of 14 days.

[FarFlungFalang]

32 minutes ago, edwardandtubs said:

It's just the Thai media getting their terminology mixed up. 

I would ask are they getting it mixed up or are they intentionally mixing it up for maximum clicks?

[FarFlungFalang]

36 minutes ago, Sheryl said:

 

I don't know where you get that from but  there is ample evidence to the contrary

 

50% infection rate documented in urban slums in India a month ago and cases atill rising there.

 

80% infection rate documented in US meat packing plants.

 

Plenty of evidence that the virus can continue to infect well past the 20% mark.

 

Indeed hard to imagine how/why just 20% would be sufficient. Usual requirement for herd immunity is 60-80%.

 

What is true is that we do not know what percent of any patticular population is susceptible to the virus in the first place (given the possibility of cross-immunity from.prior corona virus infections).   

 

The percent susceptible will certainly not be the same everywhere, wide variation from place to place is likely. There may also be variation over time i.e  people who have cross-immunity may not retain it forever.

The original comment " It appears the herd immunity threshold for Covid-19 is about 20% which is where places like Stockholm, New York and London got to before tailing off."Does suggest that in the examples he gave it appears to be 20% which shouldn't be to difficult to verify and if verified to be correct it would,I suggest,take a lot of the sting out of the fear currently surrounding the pandemic and help steer the situation to a more appropriate level of calm.Which seems to be occurring Europe according to this ABC article today.

 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-05/why-europe-has-not-locked-down-despite-covid-19-second-wave/12623804

[SVC Porter]

Headline in my local news last night.  Three deaths here in my town at the hospital.  The headline said three people have died with COVID.  I read the article and find out that the primary cause of death was not COVID.  

 

Shoddy shoddy journalism and of course our local politicians were wringing their hands in woe at the terrible terrible virus!

[Flying Saucage]

31 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

The original comment " It appears the herd immunity threshold for Covid-19 is about 20% which is where places like Stockholm, New York and London got to before tailing off."Does suggest that in the examples he gave it appears to be 20% which shouldn't be to difficult to verify and if verified to be correct it would,I suggest,take a lot of the sting out of the fear currently surrounding the pandemic and help steer the situation to a more appropriate level of calm.Which seems to be occurring Europe according to this ABC article today.

 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-05/why-europe-has-not-locked-down-despite-covid-19-second-wave/12623804

Referring to my previous post and to this article above, I like to add the following:

 

I assume that the medical definition of herd immunty is that you calculate the percentage of a population to need immunity based on the initial R0. Hence as R0 was 3 in the beginning, herd immunity is given when at least 2/3 of the populace are immune. This definition is generally correct.

 

But, now from a purely mathematic perspective, (herd-) immunity is given already when other measure will have brought down R0 to a maximum of 1, because then the infections are stagnating, and over time the percentage of infected people will become less and less. Even if only 20% of the people are immune.

 

And exactly this is what happens in Europe now, and why I applaud the European governments for their sensible reply: Due to measures like social distancing and mask-wearing inside of crowded buildings, R0 is around 1 now everywhere. So this sort of 'mathematical herd immunity' happens in Europe now. There is no exponential growth of the infection, hence no second wave.

 

The best example is Germany. Two months ago, Germany had its minimum with around 500 new cases per day, another 500 recovered and became immune, so the total number of cases stayed stable. Today, during this so calles "second wave", the situation is exactly the same, but with 1300 new cases a day and 1300 are recovering. R0 stays stable at 1. Therefore, the wording "second wave" is completely wrong. There is no second wave, as long as R0 stays around 1. 

 

The situation in all other European countries is similar, even in Spain and France with its higher daily rates. It will not be the same anymore as it was in March/April. 

 

Also, everyone should be aware that now the testing capacities are much higher, and that therefore more asymptomatic cases are found, which on the other hand are less contagious.

 

It's a pity that many don't understand what the real situation is in Europe now, and describe it completely wrongly as a second wave. At least the leading virologists in Europe ( I speak especially for the German ones) are much more relaxed today than in March and April, when everything really was serious.

 

Edited September 5, 2020 by Flying Saucage

[paulikens]

10 hours ago, Jurg said:

Some people here in this forum seem to make fun or a joke out of this possible local Covid19 transmission recently here in Thailand.

I wish to make those people aware of the second wave in Melbourne Victoria Australia very recently , authorities failed to detect a major failure in their quarantine proceedures, resulting into a Stage 4 Lockdown for millions of people again. Additionally a massively prolonged State border closure to prevent the virus spreading into other States too. Hundreds of death with Covid19 recorded in Victoria. They are talking of some 100 billion dollars additional costs in their economy due to this latest Lockdown.

 

How would you feel being back in that scenario again? 

 

Covid19 infections are not a joke, but utter disaster if not very quickly brought under control.

@Jurg go and live in a bunker covered in foil, while the rest of us get on with our lives

[waders123]

It's Aliens; little green men from mars....they are the culprits; they are the super spreaders! 

They were with that DJ!  Oh the humanity of it all! 

 

Brought to you by: 

Chicken Little and the Sky is Falling Trio

[Solidpoo]

how the hell did he got it ?

Edited September 5, 2020 by Solidpoo

[meechai]

2 hours ago, Solidpoo said:

how the hell did he got it ?

Take a wild guess ????

Edited September 5, 2020 by meechai

[fraggleRock]

14 hours ago, FarFlungFalang said:

It's good to see there are some sane people actually studying it instead of hiding under a rock and hoping it will go away,which it will when it has spread through the entire human population even if some people think they can stop it.

I love Denmark very much, it is the true land of smiles.... Thailand is sadly in need of a major reboot and is a far cry from being a democracy.

[FarFlungFalang]

2 hours ago, fraggleRock said:

I love Denmark very much, it is the true land of smiles.... Thailand is sadly in need of a major reboot and is a far cry from being a democracy.

I'm sure Denmark isn't the only country doing studies of this pandemic and as time progresses the true picture will emerge of what has occurred rather than what might occur or what some think is occurring now.When the studies are completed and the data is considered in a calmer environment free from hysteria judgement can be made on how the pandemic was handled throughout the world.

[fraggleRock]

Maybe we can start doing a daily rolling number on how many people have stepped on LEGO.... 

[FarFlungFalang]

29 minutes ago, fraggleRock said:

Maybe we can start doing a daily rolling number on how many people have stepped on LEGO.... 

I know it's similar to stepping on dried clumps of sticky rice on the kitchen tiled floor!Did that yesterday!

[John CS]

21 hours ago, tribalfusion001 said:

It's all about the infections now rather than the deaths. You can only con people for so long, restrictions and media hysteria need to stop.

The real question is why are our Govts responding in the way they are?

Aside from the public allowing this Tyranny , I think eventually you will see Media moving on from this narrative and framing the same argument for Climate change action , control & removing our rights for Climate change action. The

  narrative is Media driven and its influenced by global insitutions, UN,WHO,WEF

21 hours ago, edwardandtubs said:

It seems the covid-19 test is so sensitive it picks up old infections so this one guy who has tested positive in Thailand may have caught the virus weeks ago so no reason at all to panic.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54000629

 

[John CS]

 

32 minutes ago, John CS said:

The real question is why are our Govts responding in the way they are?

Aside from the public allowing this Tyranny , I think eventually you will see Media moving on from this narrative and framing the same argument for Climate change action , control & removing our rights for Climate change action. The

  narrative is Media driven and its influenced by global insitutions, UN,WHO,WEF

 

The PCR test is not even regulated , testing company's are not given guidelines they regularly amplify up to 40 cycles this is insane , it can detect remnants of  last seasons flu

Fear is the key, when there is no danger to anybody other than infirm people

[vermin on arrival]

22 hours ago, Sheryl said:

 

I don't know where you get that from but  there is ample evidence to the contrary

 

50% infection rate documented in urban slums in India a month ago and cases atill rising there.

 

80% infection rate documented in US meat packing plants.

 

Plenty of evidence that the virus can continue to infect well past the 20% mark.

 

Indeed hard to imagine how/why just 20% would be sufficient. Usual requirement for herd immunity is 60-80%.

 

What is true is that we do not know what percent of any patticular population is susceptible to the virus in the first place (given the possibility of cross-immunity from.prior corona virus infections).   

 

The percent susceptible will certainly not be the same everywhere, wide variation from place to place is likely. There may also be variation over time i.e  people who have cross-immunity may not retain it forever.

Hi Sheryl, nice post. Yeah, I was referring to large modern metropolitan areas such as NYC, London, Stockholm (last one may be in the 10+% range), which all hit around that mark and then the infection rate dropped well down. Certainly, in some localized very confined areas where people are not distanced the local % of infection can be much higher, as you so correctly pointed out (meatpacking plants, or favela like slums). I know of a fishing vessel that had an outbreak similar to those in meatpacking plants; I believe it was like 101 out of 122 infected (an even more extreme situation-interestingly enough only 1 serious case and all 3 people with antibodies before did not get infected). I would be shocked if any large urban center such as BKK, Tokyo or Paris would ever show 50-80% of the population having antibodies from a wave of infections from this virus. From everything I have read, I think there is no way that would happen.

 

There is much debate on the issue of herd immunity. I know at least one immunologist said it might be as low as 20%. Others have put it in the 40-50% range based on things like T-cell immunity and cross coronavirus immunity. Certainly the conventional wisdom says it is in the 60-70% range, but I suspect it will be lower than that. That doesn't mean there will be no infections, but it does mean that the rate and number would be significantly slowed down and the severity of the infections would be much less.

 

The issue of overall immunity and how long it will last is also the source of much debate. I have seen studies and reports which say that it is most likely significant and long lasting ( I had a long post on them in another thread). Others say the opposite. Certainly with any issue on this topic one can find experts who are on either side, and as you so correctly stated much is still not known.

[ttrd]

On 9/4/2020 at 10:11 AM, DirtyHarry55 said:

Question is where did he get it?

Yes and preferably more specific - from who ... 

[DrTuner]

18 hours ago, vermin on arrival said:

There is much debate on the issue of herd immunity. I know at least one immunologist said it might be as low as 20%. Others have put it in the 40-50% range based on things like T-cell immunity and cross coronavirus immunity. Certainly the conventional wisdom says it is in the 60-70% range, but I suspect it will be lower than that. That doesn't mean there will be no infections, but it does mean that the rate and number would be significantly slowed down and the severity of the infections would be much less.

It's not really binary, herd or nothing. If you use the MSEIR model where immunity is included, you'll find even small numbers effect the R, in effect keeping the speed of spread lower, meaning less people sick at any time - flattening the curve as it was. This in addition to any other mesures like social distancing, masks, etc. The epidemic is still expanding if Rt stays above 1, but it's fairly easily managed these days, hence your last statement seems correct.

 

The key to managing it is TETRIS, Test-Trace-Isolate. Eventually it will become another nuisance to live with and then that too can be dispensed with. The good thing about this is that countries that scaled up testing and tracing are now prepared for the next time CCP lets something out. Pretty much quaranteed it will, China and it's lacking hygiene is the source of many epidemics.

Edited September 7, 2020 by DrTuner