NorthernRyland Posted September 28, 2020 Share Posted September 28, 2020 51 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said: Don't know about the correctness of the graphs in this link but they have Thailand at 47,000 monthly deaths which is second behind the US.A later graph has 47,000 weekly deaths as well. but those are expected deaths so nothing has changed from previous year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post FarFlungFalang Posted September 28, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted September 28, 2020 5 minutes ago, CGW said: I apologise if I misunderstood. You will be pleased to note that "Flu" cases are down by a huge amount this year, wonder why that is? No apology need I thought I may have been a bit vague.As I call sars cov 2 a flu I would say that the flu numbers are up a bit this year but I think you mean the traditional influenza bugs in which case I think it's a case of first in best dressed and maybe also that they might not be testing for the flu so much and given that doctors can write covid on the death certificates in the US without testing then who knows what else is going on.Pretty much there are so many numbers and so much info floating around that we now have access to and people like to believe these numbers have relevance.For me I can't verify much so how can I believe much?That being said I still ask why.If flu numbers are down comparing the data with previous years should show that flu numbers can vary wildly from year to year and I'm sure there are wildly varying reasons among the "experts".About the only constant I see in this pandemic is the "wildly varying expert views" aspect of it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yinn Posted September 28, 2020 Share Posted September 28, 2020 (edited) 6 hours ago, Meat Pie 47 said: This article is nonsense, show me where Australia add hundreds new cases per day. Only in Victoria the have a few dozens per day in Western Australia we had not a local transmission for months Norther Territory had none for months only a few in NSW nothing in SA or Tassie who writes this nonsense? Big problem. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/sep/25/victoria-stage-4-restrictions-melbourne-lockdown-rules-covid-19-stage-four-metropolitan-metro-explained-what-you-need-to-know And loons Edited September 28, 2020 by Yinn 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisY1 Posted September 28, 2020 Share Posted September 28, 2020 6 hours ago, Meat Pie 47 said: This article is nonsense, show me where Australia add hundreds new cases per day. Only in Victoria the have a few dozens per day in Western Australia we had not a local transmission for months Norther Territory had none for months only a few in NSW nothing in SA or Tassie who writes this nonsense? Maybe they don't read english.....if they do, then would never read news of Australia 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post spacex Posted September 28, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted September 28, 2020 21 minutes ago, cplgil said: Thats what all cult members say When you have nothing of substance to post, always a genius to make a personal attack. Brilliant. I take it you must fall into the 75+ and older category where you need to worry about having a 95% chance of surviving even if you get covid. But of course you wouldn't as you are practicing social distancing, wearing a mask and staying locked up. You'll be fine, keep reading the propoganda. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metisdead Posted September 28, 2020 Share Posted September 28, 2020 Inflammatory posts and the inflammatory replies have been removed. Please keep it civil when posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stargeezr Posted September 28, 2020 Share Posted September 28, 2020 Seeing 2 expats, spouting off to each other, just shows how terrible the English TV is in Thailand. I liked France 24, Some RT, BBC, and the Japan station. occasionally Al Jesera. Fox was something I put on for a laugh. It is something I do enjoy here in Canada, where I get 4 Canadian networks, and can watch 4 US channels besides CNN or Fox. I feel very lucky.. By the way I agree that 14 days is okay to quarantine. 10 would be better with a last check on the 14th day. We will all have to see how things are in November when high season, begins. Geezer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post lensta Posted September 28, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted September 28, 2020 Thailand must have more medical experts than any other country because a new one seems to pop up every day looking for his 15 minutes of fame. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Moonlover Posted September 28, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted September 28, 2020 5 hours ago, farang51 said: 5 hours ago, genericptr said: It's my current theory is that COVID already blew threw Thailand early on when they were accepting tourists from China still. Many older people died but the Thai medical system didn't have the means/ability to analyze the deaths and they simply went uncounted. We could confirm my theory if the government has excess death statistics but I don't know how to find those. 5 hours ago, farang51 said: Thailand did not have any excess deaths this year; thus, your theory is wrong. Article in New York Times that says the number of deaths was normal from January to April: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html Another media (I cannot link to that one) said in June that the number of deaths fell 8 percent in the period from October to June compared to the year before. I've long held the view that @genericptr is correct, that the Chinese were bringing in the virus for quite some time before it was officially recognized. The notion that this cannot be true because the death rates did not rise is, I believe a bit of a red herring. The Chinese would have been sharing the virus with the younger, healthier members of the Thai society. The ones working within the tourist industry. They would have had their 'flu' or their 'cold' and then got on with their jobs with little contact with the more vulnerable members of society. Thus herd immunity was being created without anyone realizing it. 9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FinChin67 Posted September 28, 2020 Share Posted September 28, 2020 Negative test at country of origin. Test at arrival (or doggies doing the work) and max 7 days quarantine (if even that). Anyways, if Thailand does not open up there will be so many businesses closing that there will be riots or total mayhem as people loses their income. These idiots don't see that coming or don't care. I guess it's the latter as they are not responsible to anyone.https://www.bostonherald.com/2020/09/25/finland-using-covid-sniffing-dogs-at-helsinki-airport/ Those doggies have already caught few cases. Dogs could be used in so many was (even detecting cancer etc.) but there is still so much resistance to do so which is unbelievable. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post 5633572526 Posted September 28, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted September 28, 2020 Pretty sure if all these “celebrity wannabe doctors” had their income taken away they would be waiting at the airport to welcome tourists. disgusting bunch in my opinion 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post JTXR Posted September 28, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted September 28, 2020 The real question is whether Thailand used the time it gained from shutdown, curfew, immigration restrictions, etc. to build up hospital ICU capacity and national and local testing, tracking and contact tracing. I suspect it did not because I don't see anything from the government about progress made in these areas. 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthernRyland Posted September 28, 2020 Share Posted September 28, 2020 20 minutes ago, Moonlover said: The Chinese would have been sharing the virus with the younger, healthier members of the Thai society. The ones working within the tourist industry. They would have had their 'flu' or their 'cold' and then got on with their jobs with little contact with the more vulnerable members of society. it's worth noting the low rates in all of SE Asia. It's possible AFAIK they are genetical predisposed to having a mild reaction to the virus, compared to Europeans. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomchaiCNX Posted September 28, 2020 Share Posted September 28, 2020 6 hours ago, PatOngo said: That's BS doctor, get your facts straight! Stop spreading false information! Sue for damaging Australia's image. That will teach him. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Moonlover Posted September 28, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted September 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, JTXR said: The real question is whether Thailand used the time it gained from shutdown, curfew, immigration restrictions, etc. to build up hospital ICU capacity and national and local testing, tracking and contact tracing. I suspect it did not because I don't see anything from the government about progress made in these areas. You have to be joking! Thailand has been complemented for its efforts in combating this disease many times. From the government and other official bodies right down to the millions of volunteers who worked within the communities. They've done a brilliant job. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonlover Posted September 28, 2020 Share Posted September 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, genericptr said: it's worth noting the low rates in all of SE Asia. It's possible AFAIK they are genetical predisposed to having a mild reaction to the virus, compared to Europeans. There is also talk that the strain of virus that we encountered in SEA was less virulent than the one that took Europe by storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post NorthernRyland Posted September 28, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted September 28, 2020 Look at these excess death rates. It looks like COVID killed the weak off in June and now it's passing through like any other virus. There's literally only so many people this thing can kill and we may have already reached that point. I know "cases" are up now but those don't correlate with deaths or hospitalizations. Who knows if any of these measures actually did anything but we have so much invested at this point it's going to be damn hard to unwind and go back to normal. The media has been created fear and panic for months now. What a disaster.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geriatrickid Posted September 28, 2020 Share Posted September 28, 2020 Too many people at TVF do not understand that one can test negative for the infection and still be infected. It takes time for the infection to be detectable. This is why there must be multiple tests to establish the all clear. The current data shows that negative a test can be followed by a positive test after a period of 5-13 days. The use of 14 days was to ensure a high confidence level in the test results. 10 days is pushing the limit, but recent data suggests it may now be reliable (better testing methodology.) 5 hours ago, farang51 said: Thailand did not have any excess deaths this year; thus, your theory is wrong. Article in New York Times that says the number of deaths was normal from January to April: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html Another media (I cannot link to that one) said in June that the number of deaths fell 8 percent in the period from October to June compared to the year before. You are referencing an article in the NYT from April. Thailand has a 2+ month time delay in releasing data. Your data would have most likely been out of date then and is certainly out of date now. More importantly, the data from Thailand is not reliable. The NYT acknowledges this in its documentation notes. Have you even read the Bureau of Registration Administration data? The reality in Asia is that only the data from Hong Kong, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea and Singapore is reliable. 3 hours ago, simon43 said: Do they? I think many foreigners will remember how they have been treated in Thailand and will give the country a pass in favour of other countries.... Not relevant now. If someone wishes to relocate to a SE Asia country, where exactly can they go? The travel shutdowns apply to Vietnam. none of the whingers can afford Singapore, and besides which, they would have to purchase proper clothing. No one is lined up to go to Malaysia, Indonesia nor the Philippines right now. When the world travel corridors resume, people will be coming back to Thailand in the tens of millions. 1 hour ago, spacex said: When you have nothing of substance to post, always a genius to make a personal attack. Brilliant. I take it you must fall into the 75+ and older category where you need to worry about having a 95% chance of surviving even if you get covid. But of course you wouldn't as you are practicing social distancing, wearing a mask and staying locked up. You'll be fine, keep reading the propoganda. Harsh. You are ripping into someone because he is prudent. The issue is not surviving. It's the cost of surviving. Are you aware that the disease does have side effects in the young and healthy? And are you aware that those who are infected require 2-4-8 weeks or more to recover. Have you seen the lungs of some of the infected? What do you think happens when a single mother becomes ill? Who is there to care for the family? In most countries there is no income replacement, or if there is, the funds are insufficient. You try and manage a family where a parent does a triple shift of caring for one's own family, working and taking care of elderly parents. You look at this from your own little world of me, myself and I. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hotchilli Posted September 28, 2020 Share Posted September 28, 2020 8 hours ago, webfact said: The government has clarified that the suggestion by the Minister of Tourism to reduce the quarantine period for tourists entering Thailand to seven days was yet to be considered The government needs to tell the minister of tourism to stop making suggestions in the public arena until it has been discussed by ministers. He is an absolute baffoon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post geriatrickid Posted September 28, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted September 28, 2020 11 minutes ago, genericptr said: Look at these excess death rates. It looks like COVID killed the weak off in June and now it's passing through like any other virus. There's literally only so many people this thing can kill and we may have already reached that point. I know "cases" are up now but those don't correlate with deaths or hospitalizations. Who knows if any of these measures actually did anything but we have so much invested at this point it's going to be damn hard to unwind and go back to normal. The media has been created fear and panic for months now. What a disaster.... You are offering conclusions based upon your own deficient assumptions. 1. The use of the term "killing off the weak" is asinine. The weak are not mass produced at a set period in the year. They are present on a continuous basis. They are the patients undergoing chemotherapy, patients who have developed advanced stages of their chronic disease, they are smokers who passed a threshold, or people with stressed immune systems at the time of infection. 2. Your statement " There's literally only so many people this thing can kill and we may have already reached that point" defies common sense. You would have us believe that a disease can only kill a certain number of people. This isn't a coupon offer that exoires after a few months. if your notion was valid, we would not be seeing the new deaths in Australia, Canada, the EU etc. You missed the demographic characteristics of the new infections. In the EU and North America and Australia, it is younger demographic driven. It will take a few more weeks before we see just how damaging the new cases are. However, some young men are going to be disappointed when they discover that they can't manage an erection, or are out of breath after minimal exertion and have brain fog for weeks. The knock on effects in the younger demographic are somewhat different than those seen in the 50+ age group and they are only now being identified. It is going to be a very difficult and unpleasant 90 days as the 2nd installment of the infection rampages. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post connda Posted September 28, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted September 28, 2020 The new expert-normal. Here an expert, there an expert, everywhere and expert-expert getting their 15 minutes of fame.Hey. Look over here! I'm an "expert!" I have an opinion! Look at me! I have a steady income. So, close the borders or everyone dies of Covid. Don't worry about the poor and unemployed. They can eat green rice and field crabs or beg on the streets. Close everything. It won't affect me. Do it now!!! You'll all die if you don't listen to me, an important expert with a steady income. Here an expert, there an expert, everywhere and expert-expert getting their 15 minutes of fame. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaiyen Posted September 28, 2020 Share Posted September 28, 2020 7 hours ago, Meat Pie 47 said: This article is nonsense, show me where Australia add hundreds new cases per day. Only in Victoria the have a few dozens per day in Western Australia we had not a local transmission for months Norther Territory had none for months only a few in NSW nothing in SA or Tassie who writes this nonsense? Agreed, WA is the safest place in the world. Why? Because we are keeping the borders almost closed, and its worked. Life in Perth is almost normal as before. But Thailand reckons they have no new cases ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post NorthernRyland Posted September 28, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted September 28, 2020 8 minutes ago, geriatrickid said: It is going to be a very difficult and unpleasant 90 days as the 2nd installment of the infection rampages. COVID does not kill 100% of the time, right? That means there is a numerical ceiling on the number of possible people it COULD kill. If this were not the case the entire global population would be wiped out in an end of times scenario. I'm not trying to downplay this I'm just saying according to the data we reached a peak a few months ago and it's stabilizing since then. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post NorthernRyland Posted September 28, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted September 28, 2020 16 minutes ago, geriatrickid said: You missed the demographic characteristics of the new infections. In the EU and North America and Australia, it is younger demographic driven. It will take a few more weeks before we see just how damaging the new cases are. then we shall wait. I'm not seeing the deaths or hospitalizations yet, just infections from people who maybe or maybe didn't have symptoms. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enzian Posted September 28, 2020 Share Posted September 28, 2020 Italy is the country, with 60 mil pop, I follow most closely. For a while the number of daily new cases got down to 200/day with an average of 5 new deaths/day. Now it's close to 2000 new per day with an average of 20 deaths per day. Literally 99% of all new cases are classified as "mild". The chance of an Italian catching it at all (not counting asymptomatic untested) is 1 in 180. The death rate for closed cases which had an outcome, however, and probably due to the initial virulence, has been 14%. Almost all older of course. Given this outlook it is understandable that the country is trying to open up. The wild card, as everywhere, is long term effects. Particular to Italy is the way the Conte government has been letting in illegal migrants who are positive, and the full results of that are not yet apparent. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geoffrobbo Posted September 28, 2020 Share Posted September 28, 2020 (edited) Australian cases are not hundreds per day. Cases reported yesterday (27/9/20) were 24. On 1/9/20 it was 78. Edited September 28, 2020 by geoffrobbo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post connda Posted September 28, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted September 28, 2020 14 minutes ago, geriatrickid said: You are offering conclusions based upon your own deficient assumptions. 1. The use of the term "killing off the weak" is asinine. The weak are not mass produced at a set period in the year. They are present on a continuous basis. They are the patients undergoing chemotherapy, patients who have developed advanced stages of their chronic disease, they are smokers who passed a threshold, or people with stressed immune systems at the time of infection. 2. Your statement " There's literally only so many people this thing can kill and we may have already reached that point" defies common sense. You would have us believe that a disease can only kill a certain number of people. This isn't a coupon offer that exoires after a few months. if your notion was valid, we would not be seeing the new deaths in Australia, Canada, the EU etc. You missed the demographic characteristics of the new infections. In the EU and North America and Australia, it is younger demographic driven. It will take a few more weeks before we see just how damaging the new cases are. However, some young men are going to be disappointed when they discover that they can't manage an erection, or are out of breath after minimal exertion and have brain fog for weeks. The knock on effects in the younger demographic are somewhat different than those seen in the 50+ age group and they are only now being identified. It is going to be a very difficult and unpleasant 90 days as the 2nd installment of the infection rampages. This isn't a plague that is threatening the lives of a large percentage of the population. It's a bad flu that has been hyped by various governments, organizations and individuals aligned with pharmaceutical companies, media conglomerates, and other stakeholders as being something it is not. They are yelling "Fire" in the global theater. From the US Center of Disease Control (CDC): Come on folks. Learn to read and analyze on your own instead of thinking the god-honest truth is coming out of main-stream media cartels. Here - read: COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios Updated Sept. 10, 2020 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html My only criticism of the CDC report is that there should be a clear base-line comparison to historical seasonal flus such as the 2017-2018 flu season or SARS or H1N1, because without the comparison those who can't analyse data (like the majority of people on this planet it seems) end up being convinced that all Covid deaths are unacceptable when the numbers not much different than statistics for other historical flus. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beni Posted September 28, 2020 Share Posted September 28, 2020 Something to consider, that some other countries are implementing. To be able to travel you would need a Covid test done at least 72 hours before travel. If negative you will get a health certificate and will be able to enter the country without having to go into quarantine. If it happens that you arrive without the necessary certificate you will have to go into 14 day quarantine at your own expense. Obviously there are loopholes and room for corruption, but that is with most things anyway to be honest. There are people that spent there 14 days in quarantine only to test positive a week after they where cleared to enter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hioctane Posted September 28, 2020 Share Posted September 28, 2020 Instead if worrying about doom and gloom, how about developing a plan for mitigation?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tchooptip Posted September 28, 2020 Share Posted September 28, 2020 8 hours ago, Meat Pie 47 said: This article is nonsense, show me where Australia add hundreds new cases per day. Only in Victoria the have a few dozens per day in Western Australia we had not a local transmission for months Norther Territory had none for months only a few in NSW nothing in SA or Tassie who writes this nonsense? Australia was mentioned nowhere for Europe for instance he is absolutely right in France only ten of thousands of new cases! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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